The future of the MWC/Big Sky Conferences

The future of the Big Sky Conference as I see it today, July 14, 2014

To quote a famous guru from a popular movie series, 'always in motion, the future is."  Indeed it is difficult to see.  But how have things changed in the past few years.  One of the reasons the Big Sky Conference super-charged to 13 teams was the threat of teams moving up to the FBS.  I think that I am comfortable now crossing that threat off the list.

As the gap grows between the Power 5 conferences and the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision, the gap between those other conferences in the FBS and the Football Championship Subdivision will shrink.  This is already evident as we saw how Southern Utah handled South Alabama last season.  We will see such victories by the Big Sky Conference football teams becoming more common in the future.  But victories against PAC-12 teams, those will begin to be even more rare than they are today.

Will the Big Sky Conference as a whole every catch up with the Mountain West Conference?  I doubt that.  Boise State will always be Boise State, Fresno State will always be Fresno State.  But don't be surprised to see teams like Wyoming and New Mexico being regularly schooled by the likes of Northern Arizona.  If say, Eastern Washington comes to Boise and upsets the Broncos on the blue turf, that game will become a rallying cry for the Broncos for the next several seasons.

The biggest threat to the Big Sky Conference is the WAC, but not in the way it was a few years ago.  It's the WAC without football, as in Big Sky schools dropping football.  In recent years; Weber State and Northern Arizona have had to fight to keep football.  There may be schools follow-through on threats to drop football and join the new WAC.  Especially as costs rise, even at the FCS level, schools will decide that dropping out is better than keeping up.

Another possible "threat" or "Opportunity" for the Big Sky is the resurrection of Big West Football, which is likely to be at the FCS level, if it happens.

As for the MWC, there are times of both opportunity and threat.  Odds are that there will never be a chance for the MWC to become a power conference.  Also, odds are that if you are not currently a member of a power conference, there will not be the chance to join.  From what I have read, the power conferences are in no mood to add anyone, including BYU, Boise State or Fresno State.  It appears that they are trying to get smaller, not larger.

This could be an opportunity for the MWC, which could become a real power conference in basketball.  But that is all speculation right now.  But for teams in the West who are not able to keep up with the spending of the rest of the power conferences, the MWC may end up a good landing place.

In 20 years, and this is my speculation, both the MWC and the Big Sky Conferences could look much different than they do today.

2035 Possible MWC

Air Force
Boise State
Fresno State
Iowa State
Kansas State


Nevada
New Mexico
Montana
UNLV
UTEP
San Diego State
Utah State

Dropping Out to the FCS:
Colorado State
Wyoming
Hawaii
San Jose State

2035 Possible Big Sky

Eastern Washington
Central Washington
Colorado State
Dixie State
Idaho
Montana State
North Dakota
Southern Utah
Simon Frazer
Wyoming

Dropping Out (Dropping Football):
Idaho State
Northern Arizona

Weber State

Dropping to Division II:

Northern Colorado

2035 Resurrected Big West

Cal Poly
CS Northridge
Hawaii
UC Davis
Portland State
Sacramento State
San Jose State
San Diego University