Vacation Over

My vacation from this blog is over now that the college football season is about to begin.  There has not been a lot to write about.  Except for BYU pursuing the Big 12, there hasn't been a lot of action on the conference realignment front.  I'm also trying to steer clear of rumors, and it is always very difficult to separate the rumors from the facts.

This much I do know, the college playoff system that begins this season is a step closer to separating the Power 5 conferences from the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision.  By the end of this decade, instead of the two college football subdivisions of Division I that exist now, there will be 3.  It does not look like BYU, Boise State or Utah State will be in the top division.  This is true no matter what their fans think.

Does this mean that BYU should give up on Independence and return to the Mountain West Conference?  My answer is that it is too early to tell.  There are several potential twists that could come, and probably many that will.  And when it happens, we'll probably all say something idiotic like, "wow, I should have seen that coming!"

But there are some trends that could blow this all away.  First and most important of all, is that that fewer kids are playing football.  It is likely because of the injury danger, particularly the concussion factor, that parents are steering their kids into other sports.  This means that the recruiting pool is shrinking.  This is not good news for the schools at the bottom rung of college football.

But here is what the experts are saying.

First, there will not be 5 major conferences in the 2030, there will probably only be 4 with 16 to 20 teams in them.  The conference that seems to be on the way out is the Big 12.  My hunch is that the PAC-12 will become the PAC-16 with the addition of Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and one other lucky school.  People want to say that that other school will be Texas Tech, but I don't see the PAC-12 welcoming a school in little 'ole Lubbock, Texas.  If I were to make the choice, that 4th school would be Kansas.  But they are not a football school. 

This is why BYU aligning with the Big 12 is their only chance.  But today I believe that the Cougars will end up on the outside looking in.  If you ask me, if BYU gets into the Big 12, the PAC-12 will find a reason to leave BYU out.

There are schools that are struggling to keep football going right now, and when it becomes more expensive many of these schools will simply drop football.  Some of those schools are in the Mountain West.  Wyoming and Hawaii are the only schools I see taking this step today.  There may be others.

As for the local schools, there has yet to be a conference kick someone because they were not meeting the standards.  In fact, most of the big conference like having someone around to pick on and provide fodder for an easy win.  It helps if they are good in other sports.  This is why Indiana is still in the Big 10 and Vanderbilt is still in the SEC.  This is why Utah is in the PAC-12, and this is the future of the program unless they figure out how to win some conference games.  But Basketball and Gymnastics will allow the PAC-12 to justify their existence.  If the PAC-12 gets rid of anyone, which I am sure they will not, it will be a program like Washington State.  If it is any consolation to Ute fans, Arizona has never played in the Rose Bowl, either.

As for BYU, I don't see them joining the MWC, but remaining independent at the new second division.  It will still allow them to play a national schedule, get some games on TV and continue to be used as a missionary tool for the LDS church.  They will still have a hard time finding quality games in November.

Utah State will continue to contend in the MWC from time to time.  But Utah fans, even if they never play in the Rose Bowl, will continue to look down on BYU and Utah State fans as also rans.

I am not certain that football is in the long-term future at Weber State, Southern Utah and Dixie State.  There are not the resources to compete in an arms race, and these schools will be left behind.  Hard to tell if they keep football or not, especially with the growth of soccer in the US.

That will all be brewing in the background as the 2014 season kicks off.  Let's hope that it's a good one.