The Aftermath of Upset Week, What's Next?

BYU 4-1

The Cougars were shell shocked by Utah State in Provo on Friday night.  However, most of the damage was done in the final four minutes of the first half when the Aggies turned a 7-14 deficit into a 28-14 lead.  Outside of that 21-0 stretch, the Cougars outscored the Aggies 20-14.  It still would have been a close game if it weren't for that 4-minute lapse.  It is possible that if Taysom Hill had played in the 2nd half, where the Cougar defense adjusted and figured things out, that BYU could have won.  But things did not turn out that way.

For both Cougar and Aggie fans, don't take too much stock into what happened in Provo on Friday.  It is a rivalry game and I believe there was extra motivation for Utah State.  It's not all that bad for BYU and not all that good for Utah State, but I will address the Aggies and their situation, later.

We will find out about how good of a coach and recruiter Bronco Mendenhall and his assistants are very soon.  How soon the offense adjusts to way that Christian Stewart plays and how soon the defense corrects its problems.  I would not be surprised if Defensive Coordinator Nick Howell is relieved of his coordinator duties or his play-calling duties or finds himself looking for a job after Monday, but his salvation may be that this is a short week. 

If BYU quickly corrects their problems, they can finish the season 11-1 and be on track for a be reward next season when Nebraska, UCLA and Michigan are on the schedule.  There really wasn't much of a chance for the Cougars this year to get into the playoffs, even if one of the New Years 6 bowls was in play.  If they entertain UNLV still looking for win #5, and then they fail, then Coach Mendenhall should be on the hot seat.  I will address that more in the weeks to come, but I will say a lot of the failures this season can be traced straight to the top.

Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 6-6

Probable Losses
Central Florida
Boise State
California

Probable Wins
UNLV
Savanah State

Toss Up
Nevada
Middle Tennessee

Utah Utes (4-1)

Yes, Utah did hang on to beat UCLA, who was previously ranked #8.  However, it may have been more the Bruins looking past the Utes more than any other factor.  Yes, the team and coach said, "We are taking Utah seriously."  But UCLA didn't play like it in the first half

Yes, the Utes deserve credit.  There were a lot of positives to build on.  Especially the poised they showed on the last drive.  Once UCLA took a 28-27 lead, there was a lot of moxie shown to drive the field for the game-winning field goal.  No one would have docked the effort grade if they would have had a 3-and-out on the following drive.

The Utes will still need to play the rest of the season as the underdog in order to make a bowl game, but they are most of the way they.  They will need to win at least one more game that they are not expected to, as they are only favored to beat the Colorado Buffaloes from this point forward.  But I will give them more credit than that.  The Utes are better than expected this season, and I expect that they will continue to prove that.

Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 5-7

Probable Wins

Oregon State
Colorado

Probable Losses
Arizona State
Arizona
Stanford

Toss Up

USC
Oregon

Utah State Aggies (3-2)

The first thing that the Aggie coaches must prepare for in the coming weeks is the "We Beat BYU" hangover.  The rest of the season is not going to be like the 2nd quarter was in Provo.  I'm sure the coaches know that, and I'm positive that many on the team realize that.  Getting back to reality will be hard and hopefully it will not cost them a game.  Their next game is a home game against Air Force, who is certainly capable of coming out of Logan on top.  I suspect that the Aggies have the full attention of their opponents the rest of the way, because all of them have a similar history almost the same disdain for BYU that folks in Logan have.  While the Aggies probably won't see the same team and the same flow that they had in Provo, they are certainly capable of winning the rest of their games.  But their secret is out, and their opponents will be ready.

So, they beat BYU and yet I predict that the finish will be worse?  Again, let's see how they respond in Logan on Saturday vs. the Falcons.  But, except for TCU, most of the MWC teams that left Provo with a victory usually lost after beating the Cougars.

Projected finish
Best Case 9-3
Worst Case 7-5

Projected wins
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State

Toss Up
Air Force
Colorado State

Projected Loss
Boise State

Weber State 0-5

The Wildcats have had a lot to work on during the bye week.  I have not changed my opinion of them.  One note is that Idaho State has moved way up the Sagarin rankings relative to the rest of the conference.  I will not, however, believe that Idaho State is any different than years before until they win another game.

Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9

Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State

Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Montana State
Northern Arizona

Toss Up
Portland State

Southern Utah (1-5)

The offense is now moving the ball, but the defense is not what fans in Cedar City are used to.   That is one reason the Thunderbirds lost at Cal Poly on Saturday.  It was a heart-breaker for them, as they had a 3-point lead at the end of the third quarter, only to surrender two quick touchdowns.  Of the four drives in the 4th quarter, one would end in a missed and another quickly ended in the interception.  The last time SUU had the ball, they scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion.  They kicked the ball deep as there was still over 3 minutes on the clock, but Cal Poly was able to drive 61 yards and run the clock out.

That past few season, a trip to Cedar City has been problemsome for the leaders of the Big Sky Conference.  Eastern Washington and Montana make the journey to the heart of Canyon Country later this season.  The Thunderbirds can salvage some respect this season by knocking of either the Eagles or the Grizzlies.

Predicted Finish
Best Case 5-7
Worst Case 3-9

Probable Wins
Idaho State
North Dakota

Probable Losses
Eastern Washington
Montana

Toss Up
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona

That is all for this week.