How would BYU and Utah have done this season if the MWC, as constituted before the mass realignment of the past couple of seasons? There are a lot of unknowns in this, for example, would someone like Travis Wilson come to an MWC Utah? How about a runner like Jamaal Williams committing to an MWC BYU? Likely, the more we get into the future, the more speculative threads like this will become as conference realignment affects recruiting as much as it does anything else.
The other affect that conference realignment has is upon scheduling. Before realignment, BYU had only agreements with Boise State and Utah State and who knows who would have been the final non-conference opponents. Second was the timing of the BYU/Utah game. This season, the two programs played each-other when both were relatively healthy at most positions other than quarterback. By the end of this real season, injuries have taken their toll on the Utes. They probably would not have had their depth tested so much as members of the MWC.
Here is what the computers think of the classic MWC. BYU and TCU are very close and Utah and San Diego State are also very close. The rest of the MWC is far behind, much like it was through most of the 2000s.
Sagarin Ratings for classic MWC lineup from 2010.
BYU 82.57
TCU 81.28
Utah 75.10
SDSU 73.94
Air Force 60.79
Wyoming 59.48
CSU 57.63
UNM 57.12
UNLV 54.65
Here are some other facts to consider...
For Utah
1. The non-conference schedule. The Utes had a series against Oregon scheduled, and in 2012 they would have played in Salt Lake. They also would have played USU in Logan. They probably would have still played FCS Northern Colorado and finished out the non-conference schedule against someone like Central Michigan at home. They probably would have finished 2-2 in non-conference games.
2. The MWC schedule would not have been kind to Utah. They would have had TCU and San Diego State on the road, and these games would probably be losses. SDSU is strong enough to have beaten Utah in San Diego, according to Sagarin. The game at TCU probably would not have even been close. Other than the season finale at home against the Cougars, Utah should have had little trouble in the rest of the MWC slate. Going into the BYU game, Utah probably would have a 7-4 record.
For BYU
1. The non-conference scheduled: BYU had games against Boise State and Utah State scheduled. The other non-conference games were pure speculation as most of BYU's 2012 schedule came about because of independence. I suspect that Notre Dame and Weber State would have rounded out the schedule. Notre Dame did not have to cancel anyone to play BYU in 2012 and may have been the one BCS team on BYU's schedule. Therefore, the Cougars would have been 2-2 in the non-conference slate. BYU probably has played a conference game going into the BSU game, either against Air Force or a weaker MWC foe and it is possible that Riley Nelson gets to rest the week before the going to Boise and there is a different outcome, but I see no reason to change it.
2. Going into the Utah game, BYU could have been otherwise unbeaten in conference play? The Horned Frogs are just not as strong this year as they have been in the past, and had problems at quarterback. Since this game would have been in Fort Worth in 2012, BYU probably would lost a close one. It is possible that BYU pulls this one out, but I give it to the Frogs playing on their home turf. Otherwise, going into the Utah game, BYU is 8-3.
It is possible, however, that BYU is 10-1 and on the verge of a BCS busting season.
The BYU/Utah game
This is where it gets tricky. The computers say that BYU wins this one, but BYU should have won this year's game according to Sagarin. BYU's problems at quarterback would not be exposed as fully as they were this season with the independent schedule. Riley Nelson could have looked like Steve Young against the likes of Colorado State and Wyoming. And a more healthy Utah defense makes Nelson look like he is having a bad game, which is chalked up to the intensity of the rivalry. My hunch is that BYU loses a close one again.
Post-season--
TCU wins the MWC and goes to the Las Vegas Bowl. BYU, Utah and San Diego State finish in a 3-way tie for 2nd place and the Poinsettia Bowl chooses the home-town Aztecs to take on Utah State, who surprisingly tied Boise State for a share of the WAC title. BYU goes to the Independence Bowl and Utah gets the Armed Forces Bowl.
Final Hypothetical MWC 2012 Standings
1. TCU (10-2, 8-0) Las Vegas Bowl
2. BYU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and Utah) Independence Bowl
tie Utah (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and SDSU) Armed Forces Bowl
tie SDSU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and BYU) Poinsettia Bowl
5. Air Force (6-6, 4-4) New Mexico Bowl
6. Wyoming (4-8, 2-6)
tie. Colorado State (3-9, 2-6)
tie. New Mexico (3-9, 2-6)
9. UNLV (2-10, 0-8)
In another alternate reality, BYU keeps Jake Heaps and does beat Boise State, Utah and TCU. The only loss is to Notre Dame, who is ranked #1 going into the BCS Bowls. BYU finishes #5 in the BCS standings. Here is what the final MWC standings look like...
1. BYU (11-1, 8-0) Fiesta Bowl
2. TCU (9-3, 7-1 with loss to BYU) Las Vegas Bowl
3. SDSU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to BYU and TCU) Poinsettia Bowl
4. Utah (7-5, 5-3 with losses to TCU, BYU and SDSU) Armed Forces Bowl
5. Air Force (6-6, 4-4) New Mexico Bowl
6. Wyoming (4-8, 2-6)
tie. Colorado State (3-9, 2-6)
tie. New Mexico (3-9, 2-6)
9. UNLV (2-10, 0-8)
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