The stated purpose of expanding to 13 teams for the Big Sky Conference was to have more teams in the playoffs. In the old days, the BSC would get 2 or 3 teams into the post-season. Doug Fullerton is hoping to get as many as 5 teams into the post-season. This blog has been examining that possibility all season.
The main factor the NCAA uses to determine playoff teams is the Gridiron Power Index, or GPI. It is not used for seeding, however. The rules also state that teams from the same conference can not meet in the first or second rounds of the playoffs. They could help or hurt conferences like the Big Sky. The higher seed hosts the games until the championship which is played in Frisco, Texas.
There are 20 playoff spots and 3 conference leaders are not ranked in the GPI. This would mean that a school would need to be ranked in the top 17 to make the playoffs. However, there is a chance that more unranked teams could gather their conference automatic bid, anyone not ranked in the top 15 has to be considered on the outside of the bubble.
The Locks.
#2/2 Montana State also has a GPI of 2. If the Bobcats beat Montana in Missoula tomorrow, the playoffs, all the way through the semi-finals would go through the Lambeau of the West.
#5/5 Eastern Washington. Their GPI is 4. There is a difference between a 4 and 5 seed. The #4 seed opens against a team that had a play-in game, where the #5 seed gets to host a rested team. They travel to Portland State this weekend. Thanks to Southern Utah, the Eagles now have the inside track to getting the automatic bid.
On the bubble.
#15/15 Northern Arizona. Their GPI is 12. Their playoff chances took a big hit with last week's OT loss to Southern Utah. The reason is that they could have had the automatic bid, where now their playoff chances are in jeopardy. Their GPI is still good, even with a loss to Cal Poly, they could still make the playoffs, but a team ending the season with a two-game losing streak may find themselves on the outside if they are on the bubble. Their win over UNLV helps their chances. Final game is Cal Poly.
#18/17 Cal Poly. Their GPI is 10. They could still lose to NAU and make the playoffs, even though that would mean they would drop out of the top 20 in the coaches and press polls. However, a loss would also mean dropping 3 of the last 4 and that is not a good argument for making the post-season. Fullterton would still lobby for them and I still like their chances, but the choice would not be a popular one. Their win over Wyoming helps their chances. Their final game is @Northern Arizona
My feeling is that the NAU/Cal Poly loser is out and that this game is a must-win game for both teams. Both teams have good reasons to make the playoffs, but it is hard to imagine being able to justify a team outside of the top 20 even with a high GPI. The better chance for 4 teams is a Cal Poly victory on Saturday.
Sacramento State will qualify with 7 wins if they beat UC Davis, however, they are not ranked and their post-season chances are dim.
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Northern Arizona
4. Cal Poly
5. Sacramento State
6. Southern Utah
7. Montana
8. UC Davis
9. North Dakota
10. Northern Colorado
11. Portland State
12. Weber State
13. Idaho State
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