Monday, November 19, 2012

Now that Maryland has joined the Big 10...

I should not comment about the college football realignment, it changes by the minute

Now that Maryland has joined the Big 10, what is going to happen next?

Question 1: Does the Big 10 will want to go to 14 teams, who is the 14th team?  It is down to three teams.

-Rutgers
-Syracuse
-Pittsburgh

Question answered:  It is Rutgers.

Question 2: Who does the ACC chose to replace Maryland and possibly Syracuse or Pittsburgh?

The well that they go, almost always, is the Big East.  Here are their choices:

-Connecticut
-Louisville

-Cincinnatti

Question 2A: Does Notre Dame join full-time?

It looks like the Big East will be down another 2 teams regardless of what choices are made by the ACC and Big 10.  The real question is, how does the Big East react?

Question 3: Do the basketball-only members Big East give up and form a spin-off conference?

If I was Providence or St. Johns, I would consider it.

Question 4: Is this the last straw that breaks the back of the Big East?

They have already lost Rutgers.  Louisville could be next.  When will it end?

Question 5: How do the Big 12 and PAC-12 respond?  They will be the only members of the club of 5 with less than 14 members.  If they both decide to also expand to 14, there will be nothing left of the Big East.

The PAC-12 may once again court Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State.  Of course they could have a change of heart about BYU, but somehow that does not seem likely.  Leaving the Big 12 to court six schools to get to 14.

Louisville and Cincinnati are at the top of the Big 12 list if they are not picked up by the ACC.  After that, I suspect that Houston gets the nod to return the conference to the Houston market that left with Texas A&M.  Who joins with Houston is anyone's guess.  It could be Tulane to get a foothold in the Gulf Coast market, but they would be a laughing stock.  They have not been competitive even in Conference-USA, how could they compete in the Big 12?  Memphis is a possibility as they bring some respectability in basketball.  SMU still has not recovered from the Death Penalty and probably will never do so.  And Tulsa could come into play if the PAC-12 loses the Oklahoma schools.

The final 2 teams would likely be Boise State and BYU, possibly as football-only schools.  This would avoid the travel issue for the non-revenue sports and the Sunday no-play problem for BYU.  Boise State will not be invited without BYU.  They are too isolated from the rest of the Big 12.  If Sunday play issue keeps BYU out of the Big-12, then Boise State does not join either.

My well-researched hunch is the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would be the two schools to join the PAC-12 to make them 14.  They would probably move Utah to the North Division to balance out.  Texas is the Big Dog in the Big 12 and would not be so in the PAC-14.

Question 6: When does it all stop?

It will either come crashing down or conferences will realize the insanity needs to end.  Probably when there are 16-team conferences.

Question 7: What happens when the next Boise State arrives on the scene?

Not sure if there is a plan to deal with that.  Perhaps the underlying cause of all of this has two reasons.  First, when BYU won the National Championship in 1984 and second was the arrival of Boise State last decade.  I suspect that college football is looking for a way to prevent further BYU/BSU incursions on the scene.  They want to avoid sharing the cash cow.

Question 8: What happens when demographics continue to change?  What will be the case in 20 years?

People are moving south and moving west.  That we know.  We also know that more kids are playing soccer and fewer are playing football.  The revelations about the consequences of concussions in football will have more moms choosing other sports for their kids.  In 20 or 30 years, who knows how things will look. 

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