The main reason the Big Sky Conference expanded to 13 members in 2012 was to get a greater footprint in the FCS playoffs. Usually, the BSC would get 2 or 3 teams in the post-season. Now, they are gunning for 4-5. This blog has been following those chances this year, and it looked pretty good until Sacramento State upset Cal-Poly a couple of weeks ago.
The FCS uses GPI to help determine which teams deserve an at-large bid. It is kind of like the BCS poll, except it is not used for seeding. There are 20 playoff spots, and each conference champion from all but 3 FCS conferences. The Ivy League, the Pioneer Conference--which is a collection of non-scholarship schools, and the SWAC--which is a collection of traditional African-American colleges do not send teams to the FCS playoffs in 2012. As of this week's rankings the MEAC, the NEC and the Patriot Conference do not have any ranked teams. Therefore, a school needs to have a GPI higher than 17 to get an at-large bid. The seedings will be adjusted so that teams from the same conference will not meet until the quarter finals.
Regardless of the national ranking, a school must have 7 wins to qualify for the FCS post-season if they are not the conference champion.
Here is how the Big Sky Conference playoff picture looks this week.
The Contenders:
#2/2 Montana State is ranked second in both polls. Their GPI is #3. They are in a good position to get a #2 seed, which would guarantee that they would host a semi-final in cold and frozen Bozeman. They have two games left: Portland State and @ Montana
#6/5 Eastern Washington has recovered from the loss to Southern Utah. The have a GPI at #4. They are in a good position to get themselves a quarter-final game at home on the red carpet, with little help. Their win against FBS Idaho will help their chances. The most difficult stretch of their schedule is behind them. With a little help, they can win the conference automatic bid. Two games left are: UC Davis and @ Portland State
#11/11 Northern Arizona has a GPI of 6. It is not logical that they could help their chances by drubbing rival Southern Utah at home this week, but the Thunderbirds have played everyone close this season and probably would be in playoff position themselves if they had not opened the season against a pair of good FBS opponents. NAU has a win over FBS UNLV. They have two home games left and if they win them both, they will earn the Big Sky Conference Championship and the BCS automatic bid into the playoffs. Remaining games: Southern Utah and Cal Poly.
#19/19 Cal Poly is not loved by the writers or the coaches that vote in the polls, but they have a GPI of 12 and their bubble has not yet burst in spite of 2 consecutive losses. They have BSC Cellar Dweller Idaho State next and it will be difficult to impress the voters unless they win by 9-10 touchdowns. They can also derail NAU's title hopes. But another loss and they may not make the post-season. Remaining games: Idaho State and @ Northern Arizona.
Sacramento State has one game left against UC Davis after a bye week this week. If they win, they have enough wins to qualify for the post-season. As they are off this week, they need some serious help to make the post-season. A lot of teams ranked ahead of them would need to lose.
No one else can win the conference championship nor get enough wins to qualify for an at-large bid. But teams like Portland State, Montana, UC Davis, Idaho State and Southern Utah can play the spoiler.
Conference Automatic bid:
-Northern Arizona if they win out.
-If
NAU loses to Cal Poly and the others win out. Eastern Washington
played an extra conference game against North Dakota. This was a
non-conference game for both. This game does not count in the standings
to determine who will get the conference automatic bid. This would
leave Northern Arizona, EWU and Montana State in a 3-way tie.
The
first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. Since NAU did not play
EWU or MSU this season, that could eliminate Montana State, but not EWU
or NAU.
The second tie breaker is record against
common conference opponents. EWU has a win over Cal Poly and NAU a
loss. However, NAU would have a win over Southern Utah where EWU has a
loss. This would not settle the matter.
The third tie-breaker is record against common conference opponents in non-conference games. This settles nothing.
The next tie-breaker is record against FBS opponents. NAU defeated UNLV and EWU defeated Idaho. Nothing settled here either.
The next tie-breaker is record against all division I opponents. That still does not settle the matter as both teams would have an identical record.
The last tie breaker is rankings, which would give EWU the advantage.
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings...
1. Northern Arizona
2. Eastern Washington
3. Montana State
4. Cal Poly
5. Sacramento State
6. North Dakota
7. Southern Utah
8. Montana
9. UC Davis
10. Northern Colorado
11. Portland State
12. Weber State
13. Idaho State
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