Denver, we hardly knew you. The Pioneers have left the WAC for the Summit League, looking for something a little more stable. But the WAC then added Grand Canyon University, a successful Division II non-football athletic program. GCU has been looking to move to Division I for the last several years and joined the WAC after they were unsuccessful at getting into the WCC.
The WAC seems to have revealed it's strategy for survival in luring GCU. It seems to be going after non-football Western Division II programs looking to move up. Here is a list of potential WAC invitees which have more than 10,000 undergrads and are in large enough cities to support Division programs.
Alaska Anchorage
Western Washington (Bellingham, WA)
MSU Billings (Billings, MT)
Northwest Nazarene (Nampa, ID)
Seattle Pacific
Chico State (Chico, CA)
CSU East Bay (Hayward, CA)
Cal Poly Pamona
CSU Dominguez Hills (Carson, CA) Note: on campus is the Home Depot Center, home of the LA Galaxy of MLS
CSU-Los Angeles
CSU-San Bernardino
UC-San Diego (Recently, the student body rejected an increase in student fees to move to Division I)
Tarelton State (Stephenville, TX)
Texas A&M Commerce
San Francisco State
Metro State (Denver, CO)
There are probably at least a dozen others.
For those of you who lost your scorecard, here is who is left in the WAC:
New Mexico State
Utah Valley
Seattle
CSU-Bakersfield
Grand Canyon
Need 2 more schools to maintain NCAA auto bid status. Probably had better add at least 3 or 4.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Monday, November 26, 2012
Pure Speculation Part 2...Would Utah State have a WAC Championship if Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii were still in the WAC?
Sagarin Rankings for Classic WAC
Utah State 81.68
Fresno State 80.08
Boise State 78.71
San Jose State 79.17
La Tech 73.54
Nevada 68.94
Hawaii 51.32
Idaho 46.70
NMSU 46.11
For Utah State to have won the WAC in 2012 with this line up of teams, it probably would have come to where the games were played. In 2010, USU played Fresno State in Logan and Boise State in Boise. The computers, which add 3.14 points to the home team would have called a USU/BSU game in Boise too close to call, but the Broncos would have had a razor-thin edge. Enough for a good team with strong leadership to overcome. But BSU would have a slight disadvantage playing at San Jose State. So you basically have a 3-way tie for 1st place with Boise State beating Utah State, Utah State beating San Jose State and San Jose State beating Boise State.
As far a bowls go, it depends on how the non-conference records go.
The speculative WAC standings in this alignment in 2012 could have been thus...
(Conference Record Only)
1. Boise State 7-1
Tie. Utah State 7-1
Tie. San Jose State 7-1
4. Fresno State 5-3
5. Louisiana Tech 4-4
6. Nevada 3-5
7. Hawaii 2-6
8. Idaho 1-7
9. New Mexico State 0-8
As far as bowls go, this is what I would have done...
Boise State--Potato Bowl...playing at home.
Utah State--Poinsettia Bowl
San Jose State--Hawaii Bowl
Fresno State--New Mexico Bowl
La Tech (Probably would have found another bowl to go to.)
Nevada may even ended up bowl eligible.
The real good news, and this is not speculation, is that if USU keeps improving, 2013 could involve an MWC championship and perhaps even more.
Pure Speculation Part 1...How Would Utah and BYU have done in the MWC.
How would BYU and Utah have done this season if the MWC, as constituted before the mass realignment of the past couple of seasons? There are a lot of unknowns in this, for example, would someone like Travis Wilson come to an MWC Utah? How about a runner like Jamaal Williams committing to an MWC BYU? Likely, the more we get into the future, the more speculative threads like this will become as conference realignment affects recruiting as much as it does anything else.
The other affect that conference realignment has is upon scheduling. Before realignment, BYU had only agreements with Boise State and Utah State and who knows who would have been the final non-conference opponents. Second was the timing of the BYU/Utah game. This season, the two programs played each-other when both were relatively healthy at most positions other than quarterback. By the end of this real season, injuries have taken their toll on the Utes. They probably would not have had their depth tested so much as members of the MWC.
Here is what the computers think of the classic MWC. BYU and TCU are very close and Utah and San Diego State are also very close. The rest of the MWC is far behind, much like it was through most of the 2000s.
Sagarin Ratings for classic MWC lineup from 2010.
BYU 82.57
TCU 81.28
Utah 75.10
SDSU 73.94
Air Force 60.79
Wyoming 59.48
CSU 57.63
UNM 57.12
UNLV 54.65
Here are some other facts to consider...
For Utah
1. The non-conference schedule. The Utes had a series against Oregon scheduled, and in 2012 they would have played in Salt Lake. They also would have played USU in Logan. They probably would have still played FCS Northern Colorado and finished out the non-conference schedule against someone like Central Michigan at home. They probably would have finished 2-2 in non-conference games.
2. The MWC schedule would not have been kind to Utah. They would have had TCU and San Diego State on the road, and these games would probably be losses. SDSU is strong enough to have beaten Utah in San Diego, according to Sagarin. The game at TCU probably would not have even been close. Other than the season finale at home against the Cougars, Utah should have had little trouble in the rest of the MWC slate. Going into the BYU game, Utah probably would have a 7-4 record.
For BYU
1. The non-conference scheduled: BYU had games against Boise State and Utah State scheduled. The other non-conference games were pure speculation as most of BYU's 2012 schedule came about because of independence. I suspect that Notre Dame and Weber State would have rounded out the schedule. Notre Dame did not have to cancel anyone to play BYU in 2012 and may have been the one BCS team on BYU's schedule. Therefore, the Cougars would have been 2-2 in the non-conference slate. BYU probably has played a conference game going into the BSU game, either against Air Force or a weaker MWC foe and it is possible that Riley Nelson gets to rest the week before the going to Boise and there is a different outcome, but I see no reason to change it.
2. Going into the Utah game, BYU could have been otherwise unbeaten in conference play? The Horned Frogs are just not as strong this year as they have been in the past, and had problems at quarterback. Since this game would have been in Fort Worth in 2012, BYU probably would lost a close one. It is possible that BYU pulls this one out, but I give it to the Frogs playing on their home turf. Otherwise, going into the Utah game, BYU is 8-3.
It is possible, however, that BYU is 10-1 and on the verge of a BCS busting season.
The BYU/Utah game
This is where it gets tricky. The computers say that BYU wins this one, but BYU should have won this year's game according to Sagarin. BYU's problems at quarterback would not be exposed as fully as they were this season with the independent schedule. Riley Nelson could have looked like Steve Young against the likes of Colorado State and Wyoming. And a more healthy Utah defense makes Nelson look like he is having a bad game, which is chalked up to the intensity of the rivalry. My hunch is that BYU loses a close one again.
Post-season--
TCU wins the MWC and goes to the Las Vegas Bowl. BYU, Utah and San Diego State finish in a 3-way tie for 2nd place and the Poinsettia Bowl chooses the home-town Aztecs to take on Utah State, who surprisingly tied Boise State for a share of the WAC title. BYU goes to the Independence Bowl and Utah gets the Armed Forces Bowl.
Final Hypothetical MWC 2012 Standings
1. TCU (10-2, 8-0) Las Vegas Bowl
2. BYU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and Utah) Independence Bowl
tie Utah (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and SDSU) Armed Forces Bowl
tie SDSU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and BYU) Poinsettia Bowl
5. Air Force (6-6, 4-4) New Mexico Bowl
6. Wyoming (4-8, 2-6)
tie. Colorado State (3-9, 2-6)
tie. New Mexico (3-9, 2-6)
9. UNLV (2-10, 0-8)
In another alternate reality, BYU keeps Jake Heaps and does beat Boise State, Utah and TCU. The only loss is to Notre Dame, who is ranked #1 going into the BCS Bowls. BYU finishes #5 in the BCS standings. Here is what the final MWC standings look like...
1. BYU (11-1, 8-0) Fiesta Bowl
2. TCU (9-3, 7-1 with loss to BYU) Las Vegas Bowl
3. SDSU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to BYU and TCU) Poinsettia Bowl
4. Utah (7-5, 5-3 with losses to TCU, BYU and SDSU) Armed Forces Bowl
5. Air Force (6-6, 4-4) New Mexico Bowl
6. Wyoming (4-8, 2-6)
tie. Colorado State (3-9, 2-6)
tie. New Mexico (3-9, 2-6)
9. UNLV (2-10, 0-8)
The other affect that conference realignment has is upon scheduling. Before realignment, BYU had only agreements with Boise State and Utah State and who knows who would have been the final non-conference opponents. Second was the timing of the BYU/Utah game. This season, the two programs played each-other when both were relatively healthy at most positions other than quarterback. By the end of this real season, injuries have taken their toll on the Utes. They probably would not have had their depth tested so much as members of the MWC.
Here is what the computers think of the classic MWC. BYU and TCU are very close and Utah and San Diego State are also very close. The rest of the MWC is far behind, much like it was through most of the 2000s.
Sagarin Ratings for classic MWC lineup from 2010.
BYU 82.57
TCU 81.28
Utah 75.10
SDSU 73.94
Air Force 60.79
Wyoming 59.48
CSU 57.63
UNM 57.12
UNLV 54.65
Here are some other facts to consider...
For Utah
1. The non-conference schedule. The Utes had a series against Oregon scheduled, and in 2012 they would have played in Salt Lake. They also would have played USU in Logan. They probably would have still played FCS Northern Colorado and finished out the non-conference schedule against someone like Central Michigan at home. They probably would have finished 2-2 in non-conference games.
2. The MWC schedule would not have been kind to Utah. They would have had TCU and San Diego State on the road, and these games would probably be losses. SDSU is strong enough to have beaten Utah in San Diego, according to Sagarin. The game at TCU probably would not have even been close. Other than the season finale at home against the Cougars, Utah should have had little trouble in the rest of the MWC slate. Going into the BYU game, Utah probably would have a 7-4 record.
For BYU
1. The non-conference scheduled: BYU had games against Boise State and Utah State scheduled. The other non-conference games were pure speculation as most of BYU's 2012 schedule came about because of independence. I suspect that Notre Dame and Weber State would have rounded out the schedule. Notre Dame did not have to cancel anyone to play BYU in 2012 and may have been the one BCS team on BYU's schedule. Therefore, the Cougars would have been 2-2 in the non-conference slate. BYU probably has played a conference game going into the BSU game, either against Air Force or a weaker MWC foe and it is possible that Riley Nelson gets to rest the week before the going to Boise and there is a different outcome, but I see no reason to change it.
2. Going into the Utah game, BYU could have been otherwise unbeaten in conference play? The Horned Frogs are just not as strong this year as they have been in the past, and had problems at quarterback. Since this game would have been in Fort Worth in 2012, BYU probably would lost a close one. It is possible that BYU pulls this one out, but I give it to the Frogs playing on their home turf. Otherwise, going into the Utah game, BYU is 8-3.
It is possible, however, that BYU is 10-1 and on the verge of a BCS busting season.
The BYU/Utah game
This is where it gets tricky. The computers say that BYU wins this one, but BYU should have won this year's game according to Sagarin. BYU's problems at quarterback would not be exposed as fully as they were this season with the independent schedule. Riley Nelson could have looked like Steve Young against the likes of Colorado State and Wyoming. And a more healthy Utah defense makes Nelson look like he is having a bad game, which is chalked up to the intensity of the rivalry. My hunch is that BYU loses a close one again.
Post-season--
TCU wins the MWC and goes to the Las Vegas Bowl. BYU, Utah and San Diego State finish in a 3-way tie for 2nd place and the Poinsettia Bowl chooses the home-town Aztecs to take on Utah State, who surprisingly tied Boise State for a share of the WAC title. BYU goes to the Independence Bowl and Utah gets the Armed Forces Bowl.
Final Hypothetical MWC 2012 Standings
1. TCU (10-2, 8-0) Las Vegas Bowl
2. BYU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and Utah) Independence Bowl
tie Utah (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and SDSU) Armed Forces Bowl
tie SDSU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to TCU and BYU) Poinsettia Bowl
5. Air Force (6-6, 4-4) New Mexico Bowl
6. Wyoming (4-8, 2-6)
tie. Colorado State (3-9, 2-6)
tie. New Mexico (3-9, 2-6)
9. UNLV (2-10, 0-8)
In another alternate reality, BYU keeps Jake Heaps and does beat Boise State, Utah and TCU. The only loss is to Notre Dame, who is ranked #1 going into the BCS Bowls. BYU finishes #5 in the BCS standings. Here is what the final MWC standings look like...
1. BYU (11-1, 8-0) Fiesta Bowl
2. TCU (9-3, 7-1 with loss to BYU) Las Vegas Bowl
3. SDSU (8-4, 6-2 with losses to BYU and TCU) Poinsettia Bowl
4. Utah (7-5, 5-3 with losses to TCU, BYU and SDSU) Armed Forces Bowl
5. Air Force (6-6, 4-4) New Mexico Bowl
6. Wyoming (4-8, 2-6)
tie. Colorado State (3-9, 2-6)
tie. New Mexico (3-9, 2-6)
9. UNLV (2-10, 0-8)
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Utah Utes 2012 Season in Review
The 2012 season ended much earlier than Utah fans are accustomed to. The last time Utah missed a post-season was in Ron McBride's last season in 2002. Many state that the reason they had such a tough year was their move to the PAC-12. The new conference is tougher than the MWC that is for certain, but this was a very un-Utah like season regardless of the level of competition. The offense struggled mightily all season, and the defense was exposed and exploited during the heart of the conference season. True, there were injuries, but they may have struggled to reach bowl eligibility even in the MWC this year.
What evidence do I have of that? Of Utah's 7 losses, only 2 were within 1 score. They took Utah State to overtime, they did manage to get within one score of UCLA and Arizona. The Bruins had trouble offensively against Utah, and it was a low point for UCLA in 2012 on the offensive side of the ball. But Utah's offense was even worse that day. Outside of those games, Utah was dominated.
The high note was their win over BYU. But Ute fans should ask the question, why can't we play everyone else as good as we play against BYU? That is evidence that this rivalry is still alive and should continue. The longer off-season will give Utah extra time to work and get ready for next season's opener at home against Utah State. The Utes lose a lot of key players to graduation this years. Hopefully, they will be able to find good replacements.
Offensive MVP: RB John White IV
Defensive MVP: DL Star Lotulelei
Best Win: BYU
Worst Loss: Arizona
Do over moment: 1st 3rd quarter drive vs. UCLA
Best player not returning: Lotulelei
Best freshman: QB Travis Wilson
2013 schedule
August 29 Utah State
September 7 Weber State
September 21 @ BYU
Conference schedule not yet announced; we know who, but we do not know when.
Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA at home
Arizona, USC, Washington State, Oregon on the road.
What evidence do I have of that? Of Utah's 7 losses, only 2 were within 1 score. They took Utah State to overtime, they did manage to get within one score of UCLA and Arizona. The Bruins had trouble offensively against Utah, and it was a low point for UCLA in 2012 on the offensive side of the ball. But Utah's offense was even worse that day. Outside of those games, Utah was dominated.
The high note was their win over BYU. But Ute fans should ask the question, why can't we play everyone else as good as we play against BYU? That is evidence that this rivalry is still alive and should continue. The longer off-season will give Utah extra time to work and get ready for next season's opener at home against Utah State. The Utes lose a lot of key players to graduation this years. Hopefully, they will be able to find good replacements.
Offensive MVP: RB John White IV
Defensive MVP: DL Star Lotulelei
Best Win: BYU
Worst Loss: Arizona
Do over moment: 1st 3rd quarter drive vs. UCLA
Best player not returning: Lotulelei
Best freshman: QB Travis Wilson
2013 schedule
August 29 Utah State
September 7 Weber State
September 21 @ BYU
Conference schedule not yet announced; we know who, but we do not know when.
Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA at home
Arizona, USC, Washington State, Oregon on the road.
Swagger Report 11/24/2012
The 3 FBS teams in Utah each won the last game of the season against 3 of the worst teams in college football. How did they do?
Utah 42 Colorado 35
The Utes went up for good in Boulder on Friday after Reggie Dunn returned his 4th kickoff of the season for a touchdown. The Buffaloes must have been feeling a little swagger at that time on special teams, having just tied the game on their own kickoff return for a touchdown. Colorado, for being one of the worst teams in the FBS this season, gave the Utes a very good game. John White IV became the first Ute to have back to back 1,000 yard rushing seasons. He also broke his arm on the second to last play of Utah's final touchdown drive. Stayed in to cap the drive. After the exchange of kickoff returns, Utah was able to run out the clock.
Utah MVP: RB John White IV
Utah State 45 Idaho 9
For the first time ever, the Utah State Aggies have a 10-win season. For the first time in 76 years, Utah State has a conference title all to themselves. They simply needed to beat lowly Idaho in order to do so. The Vandals complied by giving USU good field position the entire game.
USU MVP: RB Kerwynn Williams
BYU 50 New Mexico State 14
I think that the BYU QB controversy that has emerged can be settled by pointing out that NMSU may be the worst college football team this season, or at least the worst that the Cougars played. However, James Lark, in his first and only regular season start, did earn a 172 PI rating, that is impressive against a pee-wee team. Cody Hoffman's 5 TD catches is also impressive. What is not impressive is BYU's very impregnable offensive line, which has been a sore spot all season, including a game that featured a dominating offensive performance.
BYU MVP: QB James Lark, WR Cody Hoffman
Utah 42 Colorado 35
The Utes went up for good in Boulder on Friday after Reggie Dunn returned his 4th kickoff of the season for a touchdown. The Buffaloes must have been feeling a little swagger at that time on special teams, having just tied the game on their own kickoff return for a touchdown. Colorado, for being one of the worst teams in the FBS this season, gave the Utes a very good game. John White IV became the first Ute to have back to back 1,000 yard rushing seasons. He also broke his arm on the second to last play of Utah's final touchdown drive. Stayed in to cap the drive. After the exchange of kickoff returns, Utah was able to run out the clock.
Utah MVP: RB John White IV
Utah State 45 Idaho 9
For the first time ever, the Utah State Aggies have a 10-win season. For the first time in 76 years, Utah State has a conference title all to themselves. They simply needed to beat lowly Idaho in order to do so. The Vandals complied by giving USU good field position the entire game.
USU MVP: RB Kerwynn Williams
BYU 50 New Mexico State 14
I think that the BYU QB controversy that has emerged can be settled by pointing out that NMSU may be the worst college football team this season, or at least the worst that the Cougars played. However, James Lark, in his first and only regular season start, did earn a 172 PI rating, that is impressive against a pee-wee team. Cody Hoffman's 5 TD catches is also impressive. What is not impressive is BYU's very impregnable offensive line, which has been a sore spot all season, including a game that featured a dominating offensive performance.
BYU MVP: QB James Lark, WR Cody Hoffman
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Weber State Season in Review
It was not much of a season for the Wildcats, a lot of negative things happened in the off-season. Because it was not a total disaster, the 'Cats still won twice, Jody Sears will get another season as the head football coach at Weber State. Actually, he signed a 3-year contract, but offensive coordinator Matt Hammer has been replaced by former Arizona Cardinals quarterback Timm Rosenbach. Rosenbach and Sears were college teammates at Washington State.
The Offense was inconsistent at best and anemic at times until the last two games of the season, it was against Northern Colorado that the defense fell down and wasted the only good game that quarterback Mike Hoke had all season. The running game only came together in the last game of the season against Idaho State.
MVP for 2012: LB Anthony Morales
Best moment of the season: Southern Utah
Worst moment of the season: Everything that happened after Spring Practice concluded and before the first kickoff.
Do over moment of the season: the final drive vs. Eastern Washington.
Best returning player from on Offense: RB Bo Bolen, WR Xavian Johnson
That is as far as I will go for this very forgettable football season. But there are some other things to look forward to. Anthony Morales should be back next year to anchor the defense and Bo Bolen will return from his LDS mission to give the Wildcats some punch out of the backfield. Hopefully the offensive line will be improved and help the new quarterback, whoever gets the job, succeed. Xavian Johnson should provide a nice target.
In 2013, the NCAA allows FCS teams the option to play a 12th game and WSU will indeed play a 12th game in 2013. The bad news is that there are 7 road games, 2 against Utah and Utah State. Only 2 of the first 7 are at home. Hopefully, things will improve when WSU kicks off against Stephen F. Austin for a rare August home game.
WSU 2013 schedule
August 31--Stephen F. Austin
September 7--@ Utah
September 14--@ Utah State
September 21--@ McNeese State
September 28--Sacramento State
October 5--@ Eastern Washington
October 12--@ Cal Poly
October 19--Montana State
October 26--bye
November 2--@ Portland State
November 9--Southern Utah
November 16--@ Montana
November 21--Idaho State
The Offense was inconsistent at best and anemic at times until the last two games of the season, it was against Northern Colorado that the defense fell down and wasted the only good game that quarterback Mike Hoke had all season. The running game only came together in the last game of the season against Idaho State.
MVP for 2012: LB Anthony Morales
Best moment of the season: Southern Utah
Worst moment of the season: Everything that happened after Spring Practice concluded and before the first kickoff.
Do over moment of the season: the final drive vs. Eastern Washington.
Best returning player from on Offense: RB Bo Bolen, WR Xavian Johnson
That is as far as I will go for this very forgettable football season. But there are some other things to look forward to. Anthony Morales should be back next year to anchor the defense and Bo Bolen will return from his LDS mission to give the Wildcats some punch out of the backfield. Hopefully the offensive line will be improved and help the new quarterback, whoever gets the job, succeed. Xavian Johnson should provide a nice target.
In 2013, the NCAA allows FCS teams the option to play a 12th game and WSU will indeed play a 12th game in 2013. The bad news is that there are 7 road games, 2 against Utah and Utah State. Only 2 of the first 7 are at home. Hopefully, things will improve when WSU kicks off against Stephen F. Austin for a rare August home game.
WSU 2013 schedule
August 31--Stephen F. Austin
September 7--@ Utah
September 14--@ Utah State
September 21--@ McNeese State
September 28--Sacramento State
October 5--@ Eastern Washington
October 12--@ Cal Poly
October 19--Montana State
October 26--bye
November 2--@ Portland State
November 9--Southern Utah
November 16--@ Montana
November 21--Idaho State
Wasatch Picks for 11/21.
Utah at Colorado
When the last game of the season involves two teams that have no chance at post-season play, you have to ask yourself, who is the most motivated? That is likely who is going to win. On paper, Utah is a far better team. Colorado won in Salt Lake last season. Jon Embree may be coaching his last game in Boulder, if reports are to be believed. Coaches Hot Seat thinks that Embree can save his job if he wins. If Embree has lost his team, the the Utes will be the more motivated team and should cruise to an easy victory to finish the season. If Embree has any control over his team left, then expect the Buffs to at least give the Utes a good run for their money. I am expecting that John White IV to have a big game and the Ute defense to come close to a shut out. 35-3 Utah
BYU at New Mexico State
I do not know if Riley Nelson will start on Saturday, but it's past time for him to be thinking about the rest of his life and the aches and pains that he will suffer if he continues to play hurt. BYU should give Lark the start. It is in the best interest of the team and of Riley Nelson. Nelson should save himself for the bowl game. Regardless, BYU's Jamaal Williams should have a career day in Las Cruces with 200+ yards and 4+ touchdowns. Look for Aggie coach DeWayne Walker to give Bronco an resume at the end of the game. If BYU does not deliver a dominating offensive performance, let's say if the Cougars can muster not more than 24 points, against one of the worst defenses in the country, it will be Brandon Doman looking for work.
46-3 BYU
Idaho at Utah State
USU still has to win this game to win the WAC championship outright. So hopefully, there are no hangovers from last week's overtime game at Louisiana Tech. Who am I kidding? This is Idaho we are talking about. I will let Gary Anderson make the be careful speech. Idaho could make the game close, but the Vandals probably do not have the tools nor the motivation to pull off the upset. By close, I mean within a score or two into the 2nd half. The real question on everyone's mind, is this Gary Anderson's last game as the Aggie coach in Logan. Will he take the job at California? My suspicion is no, he will be back in Logan for at least 1 more season, unless Kyle Whittingham leaves Utah and that will not happen. He has too much invested in Logan to take just any job, even if he can double his salary.
35-3 USU
When the last game of the season involves two teams that have no chance at post-season play, you have to ask yourself, who is the most motivated? That is likely who is going to win. On paper, Utah is a far better team. Colorado won in Salt Lake last season. Jon Embree may be coaching his last game in Boulder, if reports are to be believed. Coaches Hot Seat thinks that Embree can save his job if he wins. If Embree has lost his team, the the Utes will be the more motivated team and should cruise to an easy victory to finish the season. If Embree has any control over his team left, then expect the Buffs to at least give the Utes a good run for their money. I am expecting that John White IV to have a big game and the Ute defense to come close to a shut out. 35-3 Utah
BYU at New Mexico State
I do not know if Riley Nelson will start on Saturday, but it's past time for him to be thinking about the rest of his life and the aches and pains that he will suffer if he continues to play hurt. BYU should give Lark the start. It is in the best interest of the team and of Riley Nelson. Nelson should save himself for the bowl game. Regardless, BYU's Jamaal Williams should have a career day in Las Cruces with 200+ yards and 4+ touchdowns. Look for Aggie coach DeWayne Walker to give Bronco an resume at the end of the game. If BYU does not deliver a dominating offensive performance, let's say if the Cougars can muster not more than 24 points, against one of the worst defenses in the country, it will be Brandon Doman looking for work.
46-3 BYU
Idaho at Utah State
USU still has to win this game to win the WAC championship outright. So hopefully, there are no hangovers from last week's overtime game at Louisiana Tech. Who am I kidding? This is Idaho we are talking about. I will let Gary Anderson make the be careful speech. Idaho could make the game close, but the Vandals probably do not have the tools nor the motivation to pull off the upset. By close, I mean within a score or two into the 2nd half. The real question on everyone's mind, is this Gary Anderson's last game as the Aggie coach in Logan. Will he take the job at California? My suspicion is no, he will be back in Logan for at least 1 more season, unless Kyle Whittingham leaves Utah and that will not happen. He has too much invested in Logan to take just any job, even if he can double his salary.
35-3 USU
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
The Silver Lining for the Utes
1. Many programs lose money by accepting bids to lower-tier bowls.
2. After Saturday, the players can focus on academics.
3. The players can spend the holidays with their families.
4. The coaches have more time to spend on recruiting and building a game plan for 2013.
Utah's 2013 schedule has not been announced. They open with Utah State followed by Weber State and will play at BYU in week 4. The conference schedule has not been announced, but they will play Stanford and Oregon instead of Washington and California.
2. After Saturday, the players can focus on academics.
3. The players can spend the holidays with their families.
4. The coaches have more time to spend on recruiting and building a game plan for 2013.
Utah's 2013 schedule has not been announced. They open with Utah State followed by Weber State and will play at BYU in week 4. The conference schedule has not been announced, but they will play Stanford and Oregon instead of Washington and California.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Now that Maryland has joined the Big 10...
I should not comment about the college football realignment, it changes by the minute
Now that Maryland has joined the Big 10, what is going to happen next?
Question 1: Does the Big 10 will want to go to 14 teams, who is the 14th team? It is down to three teams.
-Rutgers
-Syracuse
-Pittsburgh
Question answered: It is Rutgers.
Question 2: Who does the ACC chose to replace Maryland and possibly Syracuse or Pittsburgh?
The well that they go, almost always, is the Big East. Here are their choices:
-Connecticut
-Louisville
-Cincinnatti
Question 2A: Does Notre Dame join full-time?
It looks like the Big East will be down another 2 teams regardless of what choices are made by the ACC and Big 10. The real question is, how does the Big East react?
Question 3: Do the basketball-only members Big East give up and form a spin-off conference?
If I was Providence or St. Johns, I would consider it.
Question 4: Is this the last straw that breaks the back of the Big East?
They have already lost Rutgers. Louisville could be next. When will it end?
Question 5: How do the Big 12 and PAC-12 respond? They will be the only members of the club of 5 with less than 14 members. If they both decide to also expand to 14, there will be nothing left of the Big East.
The PAC-12 may once again court Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. Of course they could have a change of heart about BYU, but somehow that does not seem likely. Leaving the Big 12 to court six schools to get to 14.
Louisville and Cincinnati are at the top of the Big 12 list if they are not picked up by the ACC. After that, I suspect that Houston gets the nod to return the conference to the Houston market that left with Texas A&M. Who joins with Houston is anyone's guess. It could be Tulane to get a foothold in the Gulf Coast market, but they would be a laughing stock. They have not been competitive even in Conference-USA, how could they compete in the Big 12? Memphis is a possibility as they bring some respectability in basketball. SMU still has not recovered from the Death Penalty and probably will never do so. And Tulsa could come into play if the PAC-12 loses the Oklahoma schools.
The final 2 teams would likely be Boise State and BYU, possibly as football-only schools. This would avoid the travel issue for the non-revenue sports and the Sunday no-play problem for BYU. Boise State will not be invited without BYU. They are too isolated from the rest of the Big 12. If Sunday play issue keeps BYU out of the Big-12, then Boise State does not join either.
My well-researched hunch is the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would be the two schools to join the PAC-12 to make them 14. They would probably move Utah to the North Division to balance out. Texas is the Big Dog in the Big 12 and would not be so in the PAC-14.
Question 6: When does it all stop?
It will either come crashing down or conferences will realize the insanity needs to end. Probably when there are 16-team conferences.
Question 7: What happens when the next Boise State arrives on the scene?
Not sure if there is a plan to deal with that. Perhaps the underlying cause of all of this has two reasons. First, when BYU won the National Championship in 1984 and second was the arrival of Boise State last decade. I suspect that college football is looking for a way to prevent further BYU/BSU incursions on the scene. They want to avoid sharing the cash cow.
Question 8: What happens when demographics continue to change? What will be the case in 20 years?
People are moving south and moving west. That we know. We also know that more kids are playing soccer and fewer are playing football. The revelations about the consequences of concussions in football will have more moms choosing other sports for their kids. In 20 or 30 years, who knows how things will look.
Now that Maryland has joined the Big 10, what is going to happen next?
Question 1: Does the Big 10 will want to go to 14 teams, who is the 14th team? It is down to three teams.
-Rutgers
-Syracuse
-Pittsburgh
Question answered: It is Rutgers.
Question 2: Who does the ACC chose to replace Maryland and possibly Syracuse or Pittsburgh?
The well that they go, almost always, is the Big East. Here are their choices:
-Connecticut
-Louisville
-Cincinnatti
Question 2A: Does Notre Dame join full-time?
It looks like the Big East will be down another 2 teams regardless of what choices are made by the ACC and Big 10. The real question is, how does the Big East react?
Question 3: Do the basketball-only members Big East give up and form a spin-off conference?
If I was Providence or St. Johns, I would consider it.
Question 4: Is this the last straw that breaks the back of the Big East?
They have already lost Rutgers. Louisville could be next. When will it end?
Question 5: How do the Big 12 and PAC-12 respond? They will be the only members of the club of 5 with less than 14 members. If they both decide to also expand to 14, there will be nothing left of the Big East.
The PAC-12 may once again court Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. Of course they could have a change of heart about BYU, but somehow that does not seem likely. Leaving the Big 12 to court six schools to get to 14.
Louisville and Cincinnati are at the top of the Big 12 list if they are not picked up by the ACC. After that, I suspect that Houston gets the nod to return the conference to the Houston market that left with Texas A&M. Who joins with Houston is anyone's guess. It could be Tulane to get a foothold in the Gulf Coast market, but they would be a laughing stock. They have not been competitive even in Conference-USA, how could they compete in the Big 12? Memphis is a possibility as they bring some respectability in basketball. SMU still has not recovered from the Death Penalty and probably will never do so. And Tulsa could come into play if the PAC-12 loses the Oklahoma schools.
The final 2 teams would likely be Boise State and BYU, possibly as football-only schools. This would avoid the travel issue for the non-revenue sports and the Sunday no-play problem for BYU. Boise State will not be invited without BYU. They are too isolated from the rest of the Big 12. If Sunday play issue keeps BYU out of the Big-12, then Boise State does not join either.
My well-researched hunch is the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would be the two schools to join the PAC-12 to make them 14. They would probably move Utah to the North Division to balance out. Texas is the Big Dog in the Big 12 and would not be so in the PAC-14.
Question 6: When does it all stop?
It will either come crashing down or conferences will realize the insanity needs to end. Probably when there are 16-team conferences.
Question 7: What happens when the next Boise State arrives on the scene?
Not sure if there is a plan to deal with that. Perhaps the underlying cause of all of this has two reasons. First, when BYU won the National Championship in 1984 and second was the arrival of Boise State last decade. I suspect that college football is looking for a way to prevent further BYU/BSU incursions on the scene. They want to avoid sharing the cash cow.
Question 8: What happens when demographics continue to change? What will be the case in 20 years?
People are moving south and moving west. That we know. We also know that more kids are playing soccer and fewer are playing football. The revelations about the consequences of concussions in football will have more moms choosing other sports for their kids. In 20 or 30 years, who knows how things will look.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
A Very Un-Bronco-Like Season
If there is one area that Bronco Mendenhall has been good at in his years at BYU, it has been winning close football games. Usually, he has come out on top. But that has not been the case in 2011.
His career at BYU did not start out that way. The dramatic "answered prayer" game at Utah was the first one-score victory in Mendenhall's career as a head football coach. This was the fifth time in the Mendenhall era that BYU was involved in a one-score game. After that, Mendenhall, although not perfect, was very good at winning the close chess matches. Even in the rough, 2010 season, BYU won 4 out of the 5 one-score games they were involved in, losing only by the blocked kick at Utah.
But this season, it has been a different story. The only one-score game that BYU came out ahead on was the 10-6 defensive struggle against Utah State. This season included a 24-21 loss to Utah, at 7-6 loss at Utah State, the 17-14 loss at Notre Dame and finally the 20-14 loss at San Jose State.
But the reason for the futile record in close games for BYU is probably not the fault of the coaching staff, it probably has come down to execution on the field of play. In the Utah game, much was made of the missed field goals that could have put the game into overtime. But there was also a missed field goal in the second quarter. There were turnovers on consecutive drives in the third quarter which led to 10 Utah points. That included a fumble which was returned for a touchdown. On that play, the ball was snapped before Riley Nelson was ready for it. Then Nelson attempted to scoop the ball off the ground and salvage the play instead of just jumping on the loose ball. If BYU punts on that drive, they probably win the game. The next drive saw BYU lose 13 yards on a 3-and-out. This was followed by a short punt which gave the Utes the ball at the BYU 39 yard line. The Utes immediately took advantage and scored on a Jon Hayes to Dres Anderson touchdown pass. At that point, Utah was up 24-7. The execution on those three drives cost BYU the football game.
It did not stop at in the Utah game. In the Boise State game, the futility continued. Near the end of the 2nd quarter, BYU's defense stopped BSU at the Boise 22 yard line. And then the Cougars drove the ball all the way to the 2 yard line. There was a penalty for an illegal block, which put the Cougars back at the 17 yard line. Then Riley Nelson threw an interception. BYU fumbled later in the 2nd quarter. In the 3rd quarter, Nelson threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown and Boise State's only score. Riley Nelson threw an interception on the 2nd drive of the 3rd quarter and on the next drive of the 3rd quarter, Michael Alisa fumbled. It was at that point that Nelson was benched in favor of Taysom Hill. Say what you want about the missed 2-point conversion at the end of the game, it was the lack of execution in the middle of the game that cost BYU a chance to win.
In the Notre Dame game, BYU's execution was not bad. But to beat the team that would eventually become the #1 team in all the land, the execution needed to be perfect. There was a missed field goal in the 3rd quarter and the missed pass where Riley could not hit an open Cody Hoffman.
Finally, the San Jose State game was most futile of all. Each of BYU's last 5 drives went inside the 30 yard line. 1 drive ended in a touchdown. 2 drives ended in turnovers and in 2 drives BYU failed to convert a 4th down. The defense was picked apart for San Jose State's first 3 drives. Then they held the Spartans out of the end zone. But the offense could not capitalize.
All of this comes to an inability to execute at key moments of the game, which in uncharacteristic of a Bronco Mendenhall team. There are probably three good reasons for that. First is the ineffectiveness of the offensive coaching staff. The second is injuries to key personnel, especially along the offensive line. The third is the skills and ability of the quarterback and other play making personnel.
Both the passing game and the running game have been inconsistent for BYU this year. Mostly the problem is the offensive line. Riley Nelson has made some bad decisions, but he has been forced into those decisions because the offensive line has not given him enough time to make good decisions. Inconsistency in the running game comes from lack of play along the offensive line as well. The biggest problem for BYU to work on for 2013 will be the O-Line. Then QB play. Doing so will bring back close wins by BYU football.
Bronco's record in games decided by 1 score or less, including bowl games.
2005: 0-2
TCU 51 BYU 50 (OT)
Utah 41 BYU 34 (OT)
2006: 1-2
Arizona 16 BYU 13
Boston College 30 BYU 23 (OT)
BYU 33 Utah 31
2007: 4-1
Tulsa 55 BYU 47
BYU 31 New Mexico 24
BYU 27 TCU 22
BYU 17 Utah 10
BYU 17 UCLA 16 (Las Vegas Bowl)
2008: 3-0
BYU 28 Washington 27
BYU 42 UNLV 35
BYU 45 Colorado State 42
2009: 3-0
BYU 14 Oklahoma 13
BYU 24 New Mexico 19
BYU 26 Utah 23 (OT)
2010: 3-1
BYU 23 Washington 17
BYU 24 San Diego State 21
BYU 25 Wyoming 20
Utah 17 BYU 16
2011: 4-1
BYU 14 Mississippi 13
Texas 17 BYU 16
BYU 24 Central Florida 17
BYU 27 Utah State 24
BYU 24 Tulsa 21 (Armed Forces Bowl)
2012: 1-4
Utah 24 BYU 21
Boise State 7 BYU 6
BYU 10 Utah State 6
Notre Dame 17 BYU 14
San Jose State 20 BYU 14
Composite
2005-06
1-4 (20%)
2007-2011
17-3 (85%)
2012
1-4 (20%)
His career at BYU did not start out that way. The dramatic "answered prayer" game at Utah was the first one-score victory in Mendenhall's career as a head football coach. This was the fifth time in the Mendenhall era that BYU was involved in a one-score game. After that, Mendenhall, although not perfect, was very good at winning the close chess matches. Even in the rough, 2010 season, BYU won 4 out of the 5 one-score games they were involved in, losing only by the blocked kick at Utah.
But this season, it has been a different story. The only one-score game that BYU came out ahead on was the 10-6 defensive struggle against Utah State. This season included a 24-21 loss to Utah, at 7-6 loss at Utah State, the 17-14 loss at Notre Dame and finally the 20-14 loss at San Jose State.
But the reason for the futile record in close games for BYU is probably not the fault of the coaching staff, it probably has come down to execution on the field of play. In the Utah game, much was made of the missed field goals that could have put the game into overtime. But there was also a missed field goal in the second quarter. There were turnovers on consecutive drives in the third quarter which led to 10 Utah points. That included a fumble which was returned for a touchdown. On that play, the ball was snapped before Riley Nelson was ready for it. Then Nelson attempted to scoop the ball off the ground and salvage the play instead of just jumping on the loose ball. If BYU punts on that drive, they probably win the game. The next drive saw BYU lose 13 yards on a 3-and-out. This was followed by a short punt which gave the Utes the ball at the BYU 39 yard line. The Utes immediately took advantage and scored on a Jon Hayes to Dres Anderson touchdown pass. At that point, Utah was up 24-7. The execution on those three drives cost BYU the football game.
It did not stop at in the Utah game. In the Boise State game, the futility continued. Near the end of the 2nd quarter, BYU's defense stopped BSU at the Boise 22 yard line. And then the Cougars drove the ball all the way to the 2 yard line. There was a penalty for an illegal block, which put the Cougars back at the 17 yard line. Then Riley Nelson threw an interception. BYU fumbled later in the 2nd quarter. In the 3rd quarter, Nelson threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown and Boise State's only score. Riley Nelson threw an interception on the 2nd drive of the 3rd quarter and on the next drive of the 3rd quarter, Michael Alisa fumbled. It was at that point that Nelson was benched in favor of Taysom Hill. Say what you want about the missed 2-point conversion at the end of the game, it was the lack of execution in the middle of the game that cost BYU a chance to win.
In the Notre Dame game, BYU's execution was not bad. But to beat the team that would eventually become the #1 team in all the land, the execution needed to be perfect. There was a missed field goal in the 3rd quarter and the missed pass where Riley could not hit an open Cody Hoffman.
Finally, the San Jose State game was most futile of all. Each of BYU's last 5 drives went inside the 30 yard line. 1 drive ended in a touchdown. 2 drives ended in turnovers and in 2 drives BYU failed to convert a 4th down. The defense was picked apart for San Jose State's first 3 drives. Then they held the Spartans out of the end zone. But the offense could not capitalize.
All of this comes to an inability to execute at key moments of the game, which in uncharacteristic of a Bronco Mendenhall team. There are probably three good reasons for that. First is the ineffectiveness of the offensive coaching staff. The second is injuries to key personnel, especially along the offensive line. The third is the skills and ability of the quarterback and other play making personnel.
Both the passing game and the running game have been inconsistent for BYU this year. Mostly the problem is the offensive line. Riley Nelson has made some bad decisions, but he has been forced into those decisions because the offensive line has not given him enough time to make good decisions. Inconsistency in the running game comes from lack of play along the offensive line as well. The biggest problem for BYU to work on for 2013 will be the O-Line. Then QB play. Doing so will bring back close wins by BYU football.
Bronco's record in games decided by 1 score or less, including bowl games.
2005: 0-2
TCU 51 BYU 50 (OT)
Utah 41 BYU 34 (OT)
2006: 1-2
Arizona 16 BYU 13
Boston College 30 BYU 23 (OT)
BYU 33 Utah 31
2007: 4-1
Tulsa 55 BYU 47
BYU 31 New Mexico 24
BYU 27 TCU 22
BYU 17 Utah 10
BYU 17 UCLA 16 (Las Vegas Bowl)
2008: 3-0
BYU 28 Washington 27
BYU 42 UNLV 35
BYU 45 Colorado State 42
2009: 3-0
BYU 14 Oklahoma 13
BYU 24 New Mexico 19
BYU 26 Utah 23 (OT)
2010: 3-1
BYU 23 Washington 17
BYU 24 San Diego State 21
BYU 25 Wyoming 20
Utah 17 BYU 16
2011: 4-1
BYU 14 Mississippi 13
Texas 17 BYU 16
BYU 24 Central Florida 17
BYU 27 Utah State 24
BYU 24 Tulsa 21 (Armed Forces Bowl)
2012: 1-4
Utah 24 BYU 21
Boise State 7 BYU 6
BYU 10 Utah State 6
Notre Dame 17 BYU 14
San Jose State 20 BYU 14
Composite
2005-06
1-4 (20%)
2007-2011
17-3 (85%)
2012
1-4 (20%)
Wasatch College Football Report for 11/17
Arizona 34 Utah 24
As the 2012 season has rolled on, the Utah defense has gone from a solid team to just a collection of good players. In the losses over the past two weeks, the Utah defense has not been able to get a stop when they needed to. The offense has been getting the job done, for the most part, but the defense has not. No disrespect indended for the job that Rich Rodriguez has done at Tucson, particularly in the 4th quarter of this game, scoring 17 straight points to end the game just when it looked like the Utes had the game under control. There will be no bowl for Utah this year. Next week, they try to get their first road win of the season against Colorado.
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
San Jose State 20 BYU 14
I remember the stink that Utah State raised when Riley Nelson transferred to BYU. They even successfully petitioned for a rule change. Now, I suspect that USU fans are glad he left while BYU fans are not happy at all with the result. 3 turnovers, all by Nelson, in a one touchdown game, all coming inside the 30 yard line. Cougar fans have the right to be upset at Nelson. Give credit to the San Jose State defense. Their offense looked invincible early, but when you score the deciding touchdown early in the 2nd quarter, it's the defense that deserves credit. BYU's defense also deserves credit for not giving up when the game could have been a blowout. BYU will finish the season against the worst team on their schedule, New Mexico State.
BYU MVP: LB Kyle Van Noy
Utah State 48 Louisiana Tech 41
The Aggie defense finally held in overtime as the Aggies clinched at least a tie for 1st place in the WAC. A win over anemic Idaho in the final game of the season will give the Aggies their first outright conference championship since the 1970s. I'm pleased that USU won, but I don't agree with the strategy of trying to kill the clock in the 4th quarter when playing this Louisiana Tech team. One more score would have averted the need for OT.
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
Weber State 40 Idaho State 14
CJ Tucket ran and ran and ran and ran against the Bengal defense and getting a WSU single game rushing record in the process. 289 yards and 2 touchdowns for Tucket. The WSU running game has been absent most of the season. Perhaps they should have played ISU early this season and gained some confidence. WSU finishes the season 2-9.
WSU MVP: RB CJ Tucket
As the 2012 season has rolled on, the Utah defense has gone from a solid team to just a collection of good players. In the losses over the past two weeks, the Utah defense has not been able to get a stop when they needed to. The offense has been getting the job done, for the most part, but the defense has not. No disrespect indended for the job that Rich Rodriguez has done at Tucson, particularly in the 4th quarter of this game, scoring 17 straight points to end the game just when it looked like the Utes had the game under control. There will be no bowl for Utah this year. Next week, they try to get their first road win of the season against Colorado.
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
San Jose State 20 BYU 14
I remember the stink that Utah State raised when Riley Nelson transferred to BYU. They even successfully petitioned for a rule change. Now, I suspect that USU fans are glad he left while BYU fans are not happy at all with the result. 3 turnovers, all by Nelson, in a one touchdown game, all coming inside the 30 yard line. Cougar fans have the right to be upset at Nelson. Give credit to the San Jose State defense. Their offense looked invincible early, but when you score the deciding touchdown early in the 2nd quarter, it's the defense that deserves credit. BYU's defense also deserves credit for not giving up when the game could have been a blowout. BYU will finish the season against the worst team on their schedule, New Mexico State.
BYU MVP: LB Kyle Van Noy
Utah State 48 Louisiana Tech 41
The Aggie defense finally held in overtime as the Aggies clinched at least a tie for 1st place in the WAC. A win over anemic Idaho in the final game of the season will give the Aggies their first outright conference championship since the 1970s. I'm pleased that USU won, but I don't agree with the strategy of trying to kill the clock in the 4th quarter when playing this Louisiana Tech team. One more score would have averted the need for OT.
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
Weber State 40 Idaho State 14
CJ Tucket ran and ran and ran and ran against the Bengal defense and getting a WSU single game rushing record in the process. 289 yards and 2 touchdowns for Tucket. The WSU running game has been absent most of the season. Perhaps they should have played ISU early this season and gained some confidence. WSU finishes the season 2-9.
WSU MVP: RB CJ Tucket
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Wasatch picks for 11/16
Arizona at Utah
Just a couple of weeks ago, the AZ Wildcats were ranked, but they are not that strong, they just have a lot of believers. That helps when you have people cheering you on and wishing for your success. There will be a lot of that for the Utes this Saturday up on the hill, the believers will be on their sideline. The Utes should win this one at home, but it will be a close one.
24-17 Utes
BYU at San Jose State
The Spartans are, on paper, good enough on offense to give BYU fits, but they have have only played 2 really good teams this year and lost to them both. They played Stanford close and Utah State, well, not so close. This game depends on how well BYU's running game goes and how well the pass defense plays. It could be a shootout.
45-35 Cougars
Utah State at Louisiana Tech
This could also be a shootout, both teams are explosive on offense, but USU is much better on defense that most give them credit for. I don't expect this one to be all that close
49-21 Aggies
Weber State at Idaho State
The two worst teams in the Big Sky meet in Pocatello. Yawn. Idaho State is that bad.
35-17 Wildcats.
Just a couple of weeks ago, the AZ Wildcats were ranked, but they are not that strong, they just have a lot of believers. That helps when you have people cheering you on and wishing for your success. There will be a lot of that for the Utes this Saturday up on the hill, the believers will be on their sideline. The Utes should win this one at home, but it will be a close one.
24-17 Utes
BYU at San Jose State
The Spartans are, on paper, good enough on offense to give BYU fits, but they have have only played 2 really good teams this year and lost to them both. They played Stanford close and Utah State, well, not so close. This game depends on how well BYU's running game goes and how well the pass defense plays. It could be a shootout.
45-35 Cougars
Utah State at Louisiana Tech
This could also be a shootout, both teams are explosive on offense, but USU is much better on defense that most give them credit for. I don't expect this one to be all that close
49-21 Aggies
Weber State at Idaho State
The two worst teams in the Big Sky meet in Pocatello. Yawn. Idaho State is that bad.
35-17 Wildcats.
Friday, November 16, 2012
Big Sky Conference Post-Season Possibilities...Last of the Season
The stated purpose of expanding to 13 teams for the Big Sky Conference was to have more teams in the playoffs. In the old days, the BSC would get 2 or 3 teams into the post-season. Doug Fullerton is hoping to get as many as 5 teams into the post-season. This blog has been examining that possibility all season.
The main factor the NCAA uses to determine playoff teams is the Gridiron Power Index, or GPI. It is not used for seeding, however. The rules also state that teams from the same conference can not meet in the first or second rounds of the playoffs. They could help or hurt conferences like the Big Sky. The higher seed hosts the games until the championship which is played in Frisco, Texas.
There are 20 playoff spots and 3 conference leaders are not ranked in the GPI. This would mean that a school would need to be ranked in the top 17 to make the playoffs. However, there is a chance that more unranked teams could gather their conference automatic bid, anyone not ranked in the top 15 has to be considered on the outside of the bubble.
The Locks.
#2/2 Montana State also has a GPI of 2. If the Bobcats beat Montana in Missoula tomorrow, the playoffs, all the way through the semi-finals would go through the Lambeau of the West.
#5/5 Eastern Washington. Their GPI is 4. There is a difference between a 4 and 5 seed. The #4 seed opens against a team that had a play-in game, where the #5 seed gets to host a rested team. They travel to Portland State this weekend. Thanks to Southern Utah, the Eagles now have the inside track to getting the automatic bid.
On the bubble.
#15/15 Northern Arizona. Their GPI is 12. Their playoff chances took a big hit with last week's OT loss to Southern Utah. The reason is that they could have had the automatic bid, where now their playoff chances are in jeopardy. Their GPI is still good, even with a loss to Cal Poly, they could still make the playoffs, but a team ending the season with a two-game losing streak may find themselves on the outside if they are on the bubble. Their win over UNLV helps their chances. Final game is Cal Poly.
#18/17 Cal Poly. Their GPI is 10. They could still lose to NAU and make the playoffs, even though that would mean they would drop out of the top 20 in the coaches and press polls. However, a loss would also mean dropping 3 of the last 4 and that is not a good argument for making the post-season. Fullterton would still lobby for them and I still like their chances, but the choice would not be a popular one. Their win over Wyoming helps their chances. Their final game is @Northern Arizona
My feeling is that the NAU/Cal Poly loser is out and that this game is a must-win game for both teams. Both teams have good reasons to make the playoffs, but it is hard to imagine being able to justify a team outside of the top 20 even with a high GPI. The better chance for 4 teams is a Cal Poly victory on Saturday.
Sacramento State will qualify with 7 wins if they beat UC Davis, however, they are not ranked and their post-season chances are dim.
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Northern Arizona
4. Cal Poly
5. Sacramento State
6. Southern Utah
7. Montana
8. UC Davis
9. North Dakota
10. Northern Colorado
11. Portland State
12. Weber State
13. Idaho State
The main factor the NCAA uses to determine playoff teams is the Gridiron Power Index, or GPI. It is not used for seeding, however. The rules also state that teams from the same conference can not meet in the first or second rounds of the playoffs. They could help or hurt conferences like the Big Sky. The higher seed hosts the games until the championship which is played in Frisco, Texas.
There are 20 playoff spots and 3 conference leaders are not ranked in the GPI. This would mean that a school would need to be ranked in the top 17 to make the playoffs. However, there is a chance that more unranked teams could gather their conference automatic bid, anyone not ranked in the top 15 has to be considered on the outside of the bubble.
The Locks.
#2/2 Montana State also has a GPI of 2. If the Bobcats beat Montana in Missoula tomorrow, the playoffs, all the way through the semi-finals would go through the Lambeau of the West.
#5/5 Eastern Washington. Their GPI is 4. There is a difference between a 4 and 5 seed. The #4 seed opens against a team that had a play-in game, where the #5 seed gets to host a rested team. They travel to Portland State this weekend. Thanks to Southern Utah, the Eagles now have the inside track to getting the automatic bid.
On the bubble.
#15/15 Northern Arizona. Their GPI is 12. Their playoff chances took a big hit with last week's OT loss to Southern Utah. The reason is that they could have had the automatic bid, where now their playoff chances are in jeopardy. Their GPI is still good, even with a loss to Cal Poly, they could still make the playoffs, but a team ending the season with a two-game losing streak may find themselves on the outside if they are on the bubble. Their win over UNLV helps their chances. Final game is Cal Poly.
#18/17 Cal Poly. Their GPI is 10. They could still lose to NAU and make the playoffs, even though that would mean they would drop out of the top 20 in the coaches and press polls. However, a loss would also mean dropping 3 of the last 4 and that is not a good argument for making the post-season. Fullterton would still lobby for them and I still like their chances, but the choice would not be a popular one. Their win over Wyoming helps their chances. Their final game is @Northern Arizona
My feeling is that the NAU/Cal Poly loser is out and that this game is a must-win game for both teams. Both teams have good reasons to make the playoffs, but it is hard to imagine being able to justify a team outside of the top 20 even with a high GPI. The better chance for 4 teams is a Cal Poly victory on Saturday.
Sacramento State will qualify with 7 wins if they beat UC Davis, however, they are not ranked and their post-season chances are dim.
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Northern Arizona
4. Cal Poly
5. Sacramento State
6. Southern Utah
7. Montana
8. UC Davis
9. North Dakota
10. Northern Colorado
11. Portland State
12. Weber State
13. Idaho State
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Southern Utah Season in Review
The 2012 Season is over for the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. They gave us some good moments in 2012 and proved to be a force in the Big Sky Conference, even if they do not get to go to the post-season this year. Hopefully, 2013 will be better.
Best Win:
Eastern Washington.
Most Memorable Game:
Northern Arizona
Worst Loss:
Weber State
Do Over Moment, if they could have one:
Last drive vs. Montana State
Should have moment: one game that would have made the difference in the Season:
North Dakota
MVP:
QB Brad Sorensen
Most Promising Freshman:
LB Zak Browning
Worst thing that could happen in the off-season:
Coach Ed Lamb takes a job elsewhere.
Ranking the opposition from best to worst
1. Utah State (FBS) (L)
2. Eastern Washington (W)
3. Montana State (L)
4. California (FBS) (L)
5. Northern Arizona (W)
6. Sacramento State (L)
7. Montana (W)
8. North Dakota (L)
9. Portland State (W)
10. Weber State (L)
11. New Mexico Highlands (W)
The word for the offseason:
Find consistency.
Best Win:
Eastern Washington.
Most Memorable Game:
Northern Arizona
Worst Loss:
Weber State
Do Over Moment, if they could have one:
Last drive vs. Montana State
Should have moment: one game that would have made the difference in the Season:
North Dakota
MVP:
QB Brad Sorensen
Most Promising Freshman:
LB Zak Browning
Worst thing that could happen in the off-season:
Coach Ed Lamb takes a job elsewhere.
Ranking the opposition from best to worst
1. Utah State (FBS) (L)
2. Eastern Washington (W)
3. Montana State (L)
4. California (FBS) (L)
5. Northern Arizona (W)
6. Sacramento State (L)
7. Montana (W)
8. North Dakota (L)
9. Portland State (W)
10. Weber State (L)
11. New Mexico Highlands (W)
The word for the offseason:
Find consistency.
IF the Utes Finish With Six Wins? Veterans Day Edition.
The Utes have lost their sixth game of the season. This means that they are only one loss away from bowl elimination for the first time since Ron McBride's last season on the Hill. Even if they beat Arizona and Colorado, there is no guarentee of a bowl spot, as they could be the 9th team from the PAC-12 to be bowl eligible.
Here is how the BCS would work out if held today.
BCS Championship--Kansas State vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl--Notre Dame vs Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl--Oklahoma vs Georgia
Orange Bowl--Florida State vs Louisville
Sugar Bowl--Alabama vs Clemson
Stanford would just miss out on getting to the Rose Bowl because Georgia and Clemson are ranked ahead of them. It appears that the SEC will have 2 teams in the BCS even if UGA loses in the Conference Championship because Florida, LSU, Texas A&M and South Carolina are right behind the bulldogs. Florida State and Clemson are in the same division in the ACC and have already played each other. If these two teams win out, then they will get the ACC auto bid and the last at-large bid. Then if one of those two loses, then Oklahoma is next. Stanford has to leapfrog both Oklahoma and either FSU or Clemson to get to the BCS or hope that Oregon loses. One of the at-large teams would replace the PAC-12 in the Rose Bowl, if there is only one PAC-12 team and that team goes to the BCS Championship and that appears to be Notre Dame as there will be no representation from a non-AQ team.
Here is how the rest of the PAC-12 bowls look
Stanford--Alamo
Oregon State--Holiday
UCLA--Sun
USC--Las Vegas
Washington--Kraft Fight Hunger
Arizona State--New Mexico
Arizona--???
Utah--???
CBS sportsline has the Utes projected to the Independence Bowl, the Wildcats in the New Mexico Bowl and the Sun Devils in the Military Bowl.
Swagger report on the 11/10 games.
Happy Veterans Day. Here is how our Utah teams did yesterday.
Washington 34 Utah 15
The Utes scored twice as I thought that they would, but their defense was unable to stop the big play early. And that opened up the Washington ground game late. (Brando Doman should take note.) The Utes have not won a road game in 2012 and has to win both of their remaining games to be bowl eligible. That may not matter if the PAC-12 does not get 2 teams into the BCS.
Utah MVP: RB John White IV
BYU 52 Idaho 13
BYU did not beat Idaho by 6 touchdowns, but they took their foot off of the accelerator in the 2nd half, as Bronco has been prone to do...he does not like running up the score. BYU was on pace to score 80 points, and could have done it if they wanted to. BYU has accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl and will play either San Diego State or Fresno State.
BYU MVP: WR Cody Hoffman
Southern Utah 35 Northern Arizona 29 in 3 overtimes
BSC commissioner Doug Fullerton wanted the expanded conference to get 4 playoff teams in 2012. They did not get the memo in Cedar City. For the second time in three weeks, the Thunderbirds knocked off the conference leader, this time the NAU Lumberjacks were the victim. The T-Birds stopped the Lumberjacks in the 3rd overtime. This was Brad Sorensen's final game as a Thunderbird, but I doubt it will be the final game of his football career.
SUU MVP: DL Cody Larson
Northern Colorado 42 Weber State 34
In what proved to be a mark of how far the Weber State program has fallen this year, the Cats drop their home finale to Northern Colorado wasting their best offensive performance of the year. Since moving up from Division II in 2006, this is the first time the Bears have won 4 games. WSU has one game left to finish the season, a trip to the other 1-9 program in the Big Sky, Idaho State in what will be this year's Raspberry Bowl. I have been hard on QB Mike Hoke all year, he has been in the doghouse, but this week I throw him a bone.
WSU MVP: QB Mike Hoke.
Washington 34 Utah 15
The Utes scored twice as I thought that they would, but their defense was unable to stop the big play early. And that opened up the Washington ground game late. (Brando Doman should take note.) The Utes have not won a road game in 2012 and has to win both of their remaining games to be bowl eligible. That may not matter if the PAC-12 does not get 2 teams into the BCS.
Utah MVP: RB John White IV
BYU 52 Idaho 13
BYU did not beat Idaho by 6 touchdowns, but they took their foot off of the accelerator in the 2nd half, as Bronco has been prone to do...he does not like running up the score. BYU was on pace to score 80 points, and could have done it if they wanted to. BYU has accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl and will play either San Diego State or Fresno State.
BYU MVP: WR Cody Hoffman
Southern Utah 35 Northern Arizona 29 in 3 overtimes
BSC commissioner Doug Fullerton wanted the expanded conference to get 4 playoff teams in 2012. They did not get the memo in Cedar City. For the second time in three weeks, the Thunderbirds knocked off the conference leader, this time the NAU Lumberjacks were the victim. The T-Birds stopped the Lumberjacks in the 3rd overtime. This was Brad Sorensen's final game as a Thunderbird, but I doubt it will be the final game of his football career.
SUU MVP: DL Cody Larson
Northern Colorado 42 Weber State 34
In what proved to be a mark of how far the Weber State program has fallen this year, the Cats drop their home finale to Northern Colorado wasting their best offensive performance of the year. Since moving up from Division II in 2006, this is the first time the Bears have won 4 games. WSU has one game left to finish the season, a trip to the other 1-9 program in the Big Sky, Idaho State in what will be this year's Raspberry Bowl. I have been hard on QB Mike Hoke all year, he has been in the doghouse, but this week I throw him a bone.
WSU MVP: QB Mike Hoke.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Picks for Veterans Eve
It's Veterans Day and let me begin with a big salute to all those currently serving and promise you that life can get better once you're out here. I wish you all the best.
Here are the Veteran's Day picks
Idaho at BYU
This game will be a failure for the Cougars if they are not able to bench each and every one of their starters at half time and if they do not win by at least 6 touchdowns. And if Idaho does win, I will be happy to eat crow.
56-3 BYU
Utah at Washington
The Utes have their back against the wall, but the offense is playing better. Not exactly a must win game, but close to it. Washington is very good on defense, not as good as Utah, but very good. The Utes can win if they can score multiple touchdowns. Reggie Dunn, defense or the old fashioned way, just get the job done. Two touchdowns and the Utes win.
14-10 Utah
Southern Utah at Northern Arizona
The Thunderbirds have arrived at the end of the season. Grand Canyon Cup time. (At least that is what I call it). NAU has the inside track to the Big Sky Conference Championship. SUU is here to play spoiler. Doug Fullerton is hoping for a Lumberjack victory or he may not reach his goal of seeing 4 BSC teams in the post-season. The T-birds should relish that role. They have played everyone close this year, but have been inconsistent in ending games strong. Someone besides Brad Sorensen needs to come through or they will come up just short yet again.
35-33 Jacks
Northern Colorado at Weber State
Is it basketball season yet? All kidding aside, this is the last home game for Mike Hoke and a group of other seniors and that is both good and bad news. I wish that we could have a do over on this one. And by the start of next season, Bo Bolen will be back from his mission. Yea! If the 'Cats lose, Jody Sears will be officially not be coming back next year.
28-24 WSU
Here are the Veteran's Day picks
Idaho at BYU
This game will be a failure for the Cougars if they are not able to bench each and every one of their starters at half time and if they do not win by at least 6 touchdowns. And if Idaho does win, I will be happy to eat crow.
56-3 BYU
Utah at Washington
The Utes have their back against the wall, but the offense is playing better. Not exactly a must win game, but close to it. Washington is very good on defense, not as good as Utah, but very good. The Utes can win if they can score multiple touchdowns. Reggie Dunn, defense or the old fashioned way, just get the job done. Two touchdowns and the Utes win.
14-10 Utah
Southern Utah at Northern Arizona
The Thunderbirds have arrived at the end of the season. Grand Canyon Cup time. (At least that is what I call it). NAU has the inside track to the Big Sky Conference Championship. SUU is here to play spoiler. Doug Fullerton is hoping for a Lumberjack victory or he may not reach his goal of seeing 4 BSC teams in the post-season. The T-birds should relish that role. They have played everyone close this year, but have been inconsistent in ending games strong. Someone besides Brad Sorensen needs to come through or they will come up just short yet again.
35-33 Jacks
Northern Colorado at Weber State
Is it basketball season yet? All kidding aside, this is the last home game for Mike Hoke and a group of other seniors and that is both good and bad news. I wish that we could have a do over on this one. And by the start of next season, Bo Bolen will be back from his mission. Yea! If the 'Cats lose, Jody Sears will be officially not be coming back next year.
28-24 WSU
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
BYU 2013 and 2014 scheudles taking shape!
Updated.
Tom Holmoe said that there would be changes to the BYU schedule. Today, they announced that the season will begin at Virginia and that the Cavaliers will come to Provo in 2014. It has been tweeted by @KSLShep that this game replaces Washington State.
Holmoe said that one team that was on the schedule for 2013 wants to back out. That school was Washington State. BYU is now 3-1 against the other Cougars and have yet to play in Martin Stadium. They met in the 1981 Holiday Bowl and 3 times in Provo. Washington State announced that the game against BYU was moved to 2019 and that they replaced BYU with Southern Utah. That took away one of my theories on how the BYU schedule would finish up.
He also said another team was ready, but decided not to sign the contract. We may never know who that is. I am going to guess that the Aggies from the Land of Enchantment will be on the schedule because, as of today, they only have 8 games and have an opening for the Cougars in November. I believe that NMSU will become a regular on the Cougars schedule even if fans in Provo are less than happy about the match-up. Fans in Las Cruces are probably a bit more excited to see BYU regularly, however. I will also predict that BYU will use the Hawaii exemption so that there are not too many openings in November, even if it is an FCS team. However, Bronco has a very good record coming off of bye weeks late in the season.
The date for the Middle Tennessee game has not been announced, nor has the 12th nor possible 13th opponent. BYU did not use the Hawaii exemption in 2011. I plugged in North Dakota based on the Big Sky Conference announced schedule for 2013. I do not know if BYU is open to playing an FCS opponent for the 3rd consecutive season.
A31 @ Virginia
S7 Texas
S14 Middle Tennessee or bye
S21 Boise State
S28 Utah
O4 @Utah State
O12 Georgia Tech
O19 @ Houston
O26 Middle Tennessee or New Mexico State or North Dakota or bye
N2 Middle Tennessee or bye
N9 @ Wisconsin
N16 New Mexico State or Middle Tennessee or bye
N23 @ Notre Dame
N30 bye
D7 @ Hawaii.
2014 schedule so far...
A30 Open (Big-name opponent)
S6 @ Texas
S13 Open
S20 Virginia
S27 Houston
O3 Utah State
O11 Open
O18 Hawaii
O25 @ Boise State
N1 Open
N8 Southern Mississippi
N15 UNLV
N22 Open
N29 Open
TBA: @ Middle Tennessee (November) and @ Central Florida (September or October). UNLV has just been added, the first former MWC foe that would schedule the Cougars. BYU only needs 2 more games. Probably 2 more road games. There will likely not be an FCS game in 2014.
I would not be surprised if BYU visited the Kibbie Dome in November of 2014 and open the season against a "Big Name" opponent like Oregon (just throwin' the name out there...don't have any inside information other than FBSchedules.com which shows that the Ducks have an opening for 2014 and could return to Provo in 2016.). That would leave them with just one more mid-October or November game to schedule.
Tom Holmoe said that there would be changes to the BYU schedule. Today, they announced that the season will begin at Virginia and that the Cavaliers will come to Provo in 2014. It has been tweeted by @KSLShep that this game replaces Washington State.
Holmoe said that one team that was on the schedule for 2013 wants to back out. That school was Washington State. BYU is now 3-1 against the other Cougars and have yet to play in Martin Stadium. They met in the 1981 Holiday Bowl and 3 times in Provo. Washington State announced that the game against BYU was moved to 2019 and that they replaced BYU with Southern Utah. That took away one of my theories on how the BYU schedule would finish up.
He also said another team was ready, but decided not to sign the contract. We may never know who that is. I am going to guess that the Aggies from the Land of Enchantment will be on the schedule because, as of today, they only have 8 games and have an opening for the Cougars in November. I believe that NMSU will become a regular on the Cougars schedule even if fans in Provo are less than happy about the match-up. Fans in Las Cruces are probably a bit more excited to see BYU regularly, however. I will also predict that BYU will use the Hawaii exemption so that there are not too many openings in November, even if it is an FCS team. However, Bronco has a very good record coming off of bye weeks late in the season.
The date for the Middle Tennessee game has not been announced, nor has the 12th nor possible 13th opponent. BYU did not use the Hawaii exemption in 2011. I plugged in North Dakota based on the Big Sky Conference announced schedule for 2013. I do not know if BYU is open to playing an FCS opponent for the 3rd consecutive season.
A31 @ Virginia
S7 Texas
S14 Middle Tennessee or bye
S21 Boise State
S28 Utah
O4 @Utah State
O12 Georgia Tech
O19 @ Houston
O26 Middle Tennessee or New Mexico State or North Dakota or bye
N2 Middle Tennessee or bye
N9 @ Wisconsin
N16 New Mexico State or Middle Tennessee or bye
N23 @ Notre Dame
N30 bye
D7 @ Hawaii.
2014 schedule so far...
A30 Open (Big-name opponent)
S6 @ Texas
S13 Open
S20 Virginia
S27 Houston
O3 Utah State
O11 Open
O18 Hawaii
O25 @ Boise State
N1 Open
N8 Southern Mississippi
N15 UNLV
N22 Open
N29 Open
TBA: @ Middle Tennessee (November) and @ Central Florida (September or October). UNLV has just been added, the first former MWC foe that would schedule the Cougars. BYU only needs 2 more games. Probably 2 more road games. There will likely not be an FCS game in 2014.
I would not be surprised if BYU visited the Kibbie Dome in November of 2014 and open the season against a "Big Name" opponent like Oregon (just throwin' the name out there...don't have any inside information other than FBSchedules.com which shows that the Ducks have an opening for 2014 and could return to Provo in 2016.). That would leave them with just one more mid-October or November game to schedule.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Weber State's 2012 attendance is down.
Updated.
With 1 game left to go, Weber State's 2012 attendance is down compared to 2011 about 13%. The attendance is still better than seasons prior to 2011. The reasons for the decrease this season over the prior season are the lackluster performance of the team and the increase in ticket prices over the previous seasons. There was also bad weather for the season finale. Over the prior 5 seasons, Weber State has seen an increasing attendance trend.
2012 games
McNeese State -- 9617
Eastern Washignton -- 9434
Cal Poly -- 5939 (General Conference Weekend)
Montana -- 7251
Northern Colorado--4837 (Snow)
2012 Average--7416
2011 Average--8487
2010 Average--6913
2009 Average--6900
2008 Average--6910
2007 Average--4092
Note, weather was probably the main reason attendance was down in 2007.
The Cal Poly game was the Friday before General Conference. Let's compare that game to attendance at other General Conference weekends. It does not appear as if the move to Friday increased the attendance for General Conference Weekend. The fact that Weber was 0-4 going into the Conference Weekend game must be considered a factor in the low attendance. The Friday night game was comparable to LDS Conference weekend games of prior season when compared to the season average. The best was the 2009 game against Montana State. The worse was the 2008 game against Montana.
2012--Cal Poly (0-4) 5939 (80% of season average)
2011--(Road Game)
2010--EWU (2-2) 5462 (79% of season average)
2009--Montana St (2-2) 6112 (89% of season average)
2008--Montana (3-2) 3753 (54% of season average)
2007--Sac St. (0-4) 3342 (81% of season average)
In conclusion, considering how poor the team performed in 2012, the WSU administration should be pleased that there was not a further drop in attendance in 2012 than there was. If the coaching staff can figure out how to right the ship, attendance should return to it's improving ways. Weber State may see improvement on the Friday before General Conference if the team performs well and it appears to be a winnable game. We will not find out in 2013 as the Cats are on the road that weekend.
Weber State's unofficial 2013 Schedule
August 31 Stephen F. Austin
September 7 bye
September 14 @ Utah State
September 21 @ McNeese State
September 28 Sacramento State
October 5 @ Eastern Washington
October 12 @ Cal Poly
October 19 Montana State
October 26 bye
November 2 @ Portland State
November 9 Southern Utah
November 16 @ Montana
November 23 Idaho State
With 1 game left to go, Weber State's 2012 attendance is down compared to 2011 about 13%. The attendance is still better than seasons prior to 2011. The reasons for the decrease this season over the prior season are the lackluster performance of the team and the increase in ticket prices over the previous seasons. There was also bad weather for the season finale. Over the prior 5 seasons, Weber State has seen an increasing attendance trend.
2012 games
McNeese State -- 9617
Eastern Washignton -- 9434
Cal Poly -- 5939 (General Conference Weekend)
Montana -- 7251
Northern Colorado--4837 (Snow)
2012 Average--7416
2011 Average--8487
2010 Average--6913
2009 Average--6900
2008 Average--6910
2007 Average--4092
Note, weather was probably the main reason attendance was down in 2007.
The Cal Poly game was the Friday before General Conference. Let's compare that game to attendance at other General Conference weekends. It does not appear as if the move to Friday increased the attendance for General Conference Weekend. The fact that Weber was 0-4 going into the Conference Weekend game must be considered a factor in the low attendance. The Friday night game was comparable to LDS Conference weekend games of prior season when compared to the season average. The best was the 2009 game against Montana State. The worse was the 2008 game against Montana.
2012--Cal Poly (0-4) 5939 (80% of season average)
2011--(Road Game)
2010--EWU (2-2) 5462 (79% of season average)
2009--Montana St (2-2) 6112 (89% of season average)
2008--Montana (3-2) 3753 (54% of season average)
2007--Sac St. (0-4) 3342 (81% of season average)
In conclusion, considering how poor the team performed in 2012, the WSU administration should be pleased that there was not a further drop in attendance in 2012 than there was. If the coaching staff can figure out how to right the ship, attendance should return to it's improving ways. Weber State may see improvement on the Friday before General Conference if the team performs well and it appears to be a winnable game. We will not find out in 2013 as the Cats are on the road that weekend.
Weber State's unofficial 2013 Schedule
August 31 Stephen F. Austin
September 7 bye
September 14 @ Utah State
September 21 @ McNeese State
September 28 Sacramento State
October 5 @ Eastern Washington
October 12 @ Cal Poly
October 19 Montana State
October 26 bye
November 2 @ Portland State
November 9 Southern Utah
November 16 @ Montana
November 23 Idaho State
Big Sky Conference post-season outlook 11/10
The main reason the Big Sky Conference expanded to 13 members in 2012 was to get a greater footprint in the FCS playoffs. Usually, the BSC would get 2 or 3 teams in the post-season. Now, they are gunning for 4-5. This blog has been following those chances this year, and it looked pretty good until Sacramento State upset Cal-Poly a couple of weeks ago.
The FCS uses GPI to help determine which teams deserve an at-large bid. It is kind of like the BCS poll, except it is not used for seeding. There are 20 playoff spots, and each conference champion from all but 3 FCS conferences. The Ivy League, the Pioneer Conference--which is a collection of non-scholarship schools, and the SWAC--which is a collection of traditional African-American colleges do not send teams to the FCS playoffs in 2012. As of this week's rankings the MEAC, the NEC and the Patriot Conference do not have any ranked teams. Therefore, a school needs to have a GPI higher than 17 to get an at-large bid. The seedings will be adjusted so that teams from the same conference will not meet until the quarter finals.
Regardless of the national ranking, a school must have 7 wins to qualify for the FCS post-season if they are not the conference champion.
Here is how the Big Sky Conference playoff picture looks this week.
The Contenders:
#2/2 Montana State is ranked second in both polls. Their GPI is #3. They are in a good position to get a #2 seed, which would guarantee that they would host a semi-final in cold and frozen Bozeman. They have two games left: Portland State and @ Montana
#6/5 Eastern Washington has recovered from the loss to Southern Utah. The have a GPI at #4. They are in a good position to get themselves a quarter-final game at home on the red carpet, with little help. Their win against FBS Idaho will help their chances. The most difficult stretch of their schedule is behind them. With a little help, they can win the conference automatic bid. Two games left are: UC Davis and @ Portland State
#11/11 Northern Arizona has a GPI of 6. It is not logical that they could help their chances by drubbing rival Southern Utah at home this week, but the Thunderbirds have played everyone close this season and probably would be in playoff position themselves if they had not opened the season against a pair of good FBS opponents. NAU has a win over FBS UNLV. They have two home games left and if they win them both, they will earn the Big Sky Conference Championship and the BCS automatic bid into the playoffs. Remaining games: Southern Utah and Cal Poly.
#19/19 Cal Poly is not loved by the writers or the coaches that vote in the polls, but they have a GPI of 12 and their bubble has not yet burst in spite of 2 consecutive losses. They have BSC Cellar Dweller Idaho State next and it will be difficult to impress the voters unless they win by 9-10 touchdowns. They can also derail NAU's title hopes. But another loss and they may not make the post-season. Remaining games: Idaho State and @ Northern Arizona.
Sacramento State has one game left against UC Davis after a bye week this week. If they win, they have enough wins to qualify for the post-season. As they are off this week, they need some serious help to make the post-season. A lot of teams ranked ahead of them would need to lose.
No one else can win the conference championship nor get enough wins to qualify for an at-large bid. But teams like Portland State, Montana, UC Davis, Idaho State and Southern Utah can play the spoiler.
Conference Automatic bid:
-Northern Arizona if they win out.
-If NAU loses to Cal Poly and the others win out. Eastern Washington played an extra conference game against North Dakota. This was a non-conference game for both. This game does not count in the standings to determine who will get the conference automatic bid. This would leave Northern Arizona, EWU and Montana State in a 3-way tie.
The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. Since NAU did not play EWU or MSU this season, that could eliminate Montana State, but not EWU or NAU.
The second tie breaker is record against common conference opponents. EWU has a win over Cal Poly and NAU a loss. However, NAU would have a win over Southern Utah where EWU has a loss. This would not settle the matter.
The third tie-breaker is record against common conference opponents in non-conference games. This settles nothing.
The next tie-breaker is record against FBS opponents. NAU defeated UNLV and EWU defeated Idaho. Nothing settled here either.
The next tie-breaker is record against all division I opponents. That still does not settle the matter as both teams would have an identical record.
The last tie breaker is rankings, which would give EWU the advantage.
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings...
1. Northern Arizona
2. Eastern Washington
3. Montana State
4. Cal Poly
5. Sacramento State
6. North Dakota
7. Southern Utah
8. Montana
9. UC Davis
10. Northern Colorado
11. Portland State
12. Weber State
13. Idaho State
The FCS uses GPI to help determine which teams deserve an at-large bid. It is kind of like the BCS poll, except it is not used for seeding. There are 20 playoff spots, and each conference champion from all but 3 FCS conferences. The Ivy League, the Pioneer Conference--which is a collection of non-scholarship schools, and the SWAC--which is a collection of traditional African-American colleges do not send teams to the FCS playoffs in 2012. As of this week's rankings the MEAC, the NEC and the Patriot Conference do not have any ranked teams. Therefore, a school needs to have a GPI higher than 17 to get an at-large bid. The seedings will be adjusted so that teams from the same conference will not meet until the quarter finals.
Regardless of the national ranking, a school must have 7 wins to qualify for the FCS post-season if they are not the conference champion.
Here is how the Big Sky Conference playoff picture looks this week.
The Contenders:
#2/2 Montana State is ranked second in both polls. Their GPI is #3. They are in a good position to get a #2 seed, which would guarantee that they would host a semi-final in cold and frozen Bozeman. They have two games left: Portland State and @ Montana
#6/5 Eastern Washington has recovered from the loss to Southern Utah. The have a GPI at #4. They are in a good position to get themselves a quarter-final game at home on the red carpet, with little help. Their win against FBS Idaho will help their chances. The most difficult stretch of their schedule is behind them. With a little help, they can win the conference automatic bid. Two games left are: UC Davis and @ Portland State
#11/11 Northern Arizona has a GPI of 6. It is not logical that they could help their chances by drubbing rival Southern Utah at home this week, but the Thunderbirds have played everyone close this season and probably would be in playoff position themselves if they had not opened the season against a pair of good FBS opponents. NAU has a win over FBS UNLV. They have two home games left and if they win them both, they will earn the Big Sky Conference Championship and the BCS automatic bid into the playoffs. Remaining games: Southern Utah and Cal Poly.
#19/19 Cal Poly is not loved by the writers or the coaches that vote in the polls, but they have a GPI of 12 and their bubble has not yet burst in spite of 2 consecutive losses. They have BSC Cellar Dweller Idaho State next and it will be difficult to impress the voters unless they win by 9-10 touchdowns. They can also derail NAU's title hopes. But another loss and they may not make the post-season. Remaining games: Idaho State and @ Northern Arizona.
Sacramento State has one game left against UC Davis after a bye week this week. If they win, they have enough wins to qualify for the post-season. As they are off this week, they need some serious help to make the post-season. A lot of teams ranked ahead of them would need to lose.
No one else can win the conference championship nor get enough wins to qualify for an at-large bid. But teams like Portland State, Montana, UC Davis, Idaho State and Southern Utah can play the spoiler.
Conference Automatic bid:
-Northern Arizona if they win out.
-If NAU loses to Cal Poly and the others win out. Eastern Washington played an extra conference game against North Dakota. This was a non-conference game for both. This game does not count in the standings to determine who will get the conference automatic bid. This would leave Northern Arizona, EWU and Montana State in a 3-way tie.
The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. Since NAU did not play EWU or MSU this season, that could eliminate Montana State, but not EWU or NAU.
The second tie breaker is record against common conference opponents. EWU has a win over Cal Poly and NAU a loss. However, NAU would have a win over Southern Utah where EWU has a loss. This would not settle the matter.
The third tie-breaker is record against common conference opponents in non-conference games. This settles nothing.
The next tie-breaker is record against FBS opponents. NAU defeated UNLV and EWU defeated Idaho. Nothing settled here either.
The next tie-breaker is record against all division I opponents. That still does not settle the matter as both teams would have an identical record.
The last tie breaker is rankings, which would give EWU the advantage.
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings...
1. Northern Arizona
2. Eastern Washington
3. Montana State
4. Cal Poly
5. Sacramento State
6. North Dakota
7. Southern Utah
8. Montana
9. UC Davis
10. Northern Colorado
11. Portland State
12. Weber State
13. Idaho State
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Pac-12 Post-Season Options
Current BCS Bowl Projections.
BCS Championship--Alabama vs. Kansas State
Sugar Bowl--Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl--Oregon vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl--Louisville vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl--Oregon State vs. Oklahoma
Other PAC-12 Bowls
Stanford--Alamo Bowl
UCLA--Holiday Bowl
USC--Sun Bowl
Arizona State--Las Vegas Bowl
Washington--Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Arizona--New Mexico Bowl
Utah--Someone, somewhere will pick them up bowl
Not bowl eligible
California
Washington State
Colorado
Options for Utah or Arizona or whoever is left out.
1. Army will not be bowl eligible...Military Bowl
2. ACC will not fill all of their bowl options...Military Bowl
3. Big East will not fill all of their bowl options...Beef O' Brady's Bowl, Belk Bowl or Pinstripe Bowl
4. Conference USA will not fill all of their bowl options...Hawaii Bowl, New Orleans Bowl or Beef O' Brady's Bowl
5. Big 10 will not be able to fill all of their bowl options...Ticket City Bowl.
BCS Championship--Alabama vs. Kansas State
Sugar Bowl--Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Rose Bowl--Oregon vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl--Louisville vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl--Oregon State vs. Oklahoma
Other PAC-12 Bowls
Stanford--Alamo Bowl
UCLA--Holiday Bowl
USC--Sun Bowl
Arizona State--Las Vegas Bowl
Washington--Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Arizona--New Mexico Bowl
Utah--Someone, somewhere will pick them up bowl
Not bowl eligible
California
Washington State
Colorado
Options for Utah or Arizona or whoever is left out.
1. Army will not be bowl eligible...Military Bowl
2. ACC will not fill all of their bowl options...Military Bowl
3. Big East will not fill all of their bowl options...Beef O' Brady's Bowl, Belk Bowl or Pinstripe Bowl
4. Conference USA will not fill all of their bowl options...Hawaii Bowl, New Orleans Bowl or Beef O' Brady's Bowl
5. Big 10 will not be able to fill all of their bowl options...Ticket City Bowl.
What Happened in Utah College Football November 3, 2012
Utah 49 Washington State 6
The Utes have struggled in their second year in the PAC-12, but we now know that they are not the worst football program in the conference. They can beat the really awful PAC-12 teams very handily. The proved that again on Saturday with a 49-6 drubbing of the other Cougars on the Hill. For the 3rd time in the past 2 weeks, Reggie Dunn went coast to coast on a kickoff return. But it was the WSU unspecial teams that gave the Utes the short field most of the game, where three first have scoring drives were on the Cougar side of the 50 yard line.
Utah MVP: RB John White
Utah State 38 Texas State 7
It was a first half of dominance for the Chuckie Keeton/Kerwynn Williams show in Logan. The Aggies took a 35-0 lead into the locker room at halftime and the second half had all of the charm of an NFL pre-season game. The Bobcats were never in the game nor much of a threat and both teams were playing backups when the 4th quarter began.
USU MVP: WR Matt Austin
North Dakota 33 Southern Utah 29
I predicted that the Fighting Sioux would take a big lead and that SUU would be short in a comeback. The opposite happened, UND had to make the comeback on Saturday and the T-Birds could not hold them off. UND tallied the final score with 10 minutes left in the game. But SUU fumbled while after crossing the 50 yard line on their second to last drive of the game.
SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen
Montana 24 Weber State 21
It was a back and forth affair in Ogden, but the last time that Weber's offense had the ball, Mike Hoke lost the handle deep in Montana territory. The ensuing field goal turned out to be the difference in the game. After Cordero Dixon returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown, Weber State never got the ball back. Montana scored 10 points off of WSU turnovers.
WSU MVP: KR Cordero Dixon
The Utes have struggled in their second year in the PAC-12, but we now know that they are not the worst football program in the conference. They can beat the really awful PAC-12 teams very handily. The proved that again on Saturday with a 49-6 drubbing of the other Cougars on the Hill. For the 3rd time in the past 2 weeks, Reggie Dunn went coast to coast on a kickoff return. But it was the WSU unspecial teams that gave the Utes the short field most of the game, where three first have scoring drives were on the Cougar side of the 50 yard line.
Utah MVP: RB John White
Utah State 38 Texas State 7
It was a first half of dominance for the Chuckie Keeton/Kerwynn Williams show in Logan. The Aggies took a 35-0 lead into the locker room at halftime and the second half had all of the charm of an NFL pre-season game. The Bobcats were never in the game nor much of a threat and both teams were playing backups when the 4th quarter began.
USU MVP: WR Matt Austin
North Dakota 33 Southern Utah 29
I predicted that the Fighting Sioux would take a big lead and that SUU would be short in a comeback. The opposite happened, UND had to make the comeback on Saturday and the T-Birds could not hold them off. UND tallied the final score with 10 minutes left in the game. But SUU fumbled while after crossing the 50 yard line on their second to last drive of the game.
SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen
Montana 24 Weber State 21
It was a back and forth affair in Ogden, but the last time that Weber's offense had the ball, Mike Hoke lost the handle deep in Montana territory. The ensuing field goal turned out to be the difference in the game. After Cordero Dixon returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown, Weber State never got the ball back. Montana scored 10 points off of WSU turnovers.
WSU MVP: KR Cordero Dixon
Friday, November 2, 2012
Picks for 11/3
Texas State at Utah State
I am not expecting much of a contest in Logan on Saturday afternoon. The Bobcats are in their first season at the FBS level. They are no higher than 80th in nearly every NCAA stat, except for rushing yards. Anything can happen, this could be a trap game for USU, but with a bye before the big game against Louisiana Tech, it doesn't feel like it.
45-10 USU
Washington State at Utah
The Air Raid offense has improved a little bit since the last time the Cougars came to the Beehive State at the beginning of the season, but Mike Leach's project should be looked as as a 3 to 4 year work in progress. The Utes should still have plenty to motivate them for this game, they can still finish bowl-eligible. The Cougars are looking to play spoiler. WSU should make the game interesting, early, but the Utes should pull away late.
28-13 Utah
Montana at Weber State
It's not often that these two teams meet so late in the season with only 5 combined wins between them. The Grizzlies are limping into Steward Stadium this Saturday. But the Wildcats are worse off by far. The real question in this game is who will be the most motivated when there is so little to play for. Last week the Grizzlies really took it to punchless Idaho State, and that probably did little for their morale. Montana is definitely not used to being in this situation, and that could play to WSU's advantage. Games like this can actually be fun to watch.
33-31 WSU
Southern Utah at North Dakota
The Thunderbirds pulled off the big upset last week in their home finale. Now it may be time for the big letdown. The Fighting Sioux are also dealing with a frustrating and disappointing season and may be looking to take advantage and take their frustrations out on the visitors. The T-birds have a habit of letting the other team build a lead early and have had to come back late. That habit will not serve them well this week.
31-28 North Dakota
I am not expecting much of a contest in Logan on Saturday afternoon. The Bobcats are in their first season at the FBS level. They are no higher than 80th in nearly every NCAA stat, except for rushing yards. Anything can happen, this could be a trap game for USU, but with a bye before the big game against Louisiana Tech, it doesn't feel like it.
45-10 USU
Washington State at Utah
The Air Raid offense has improved a little bit since the last time the Cougars came to the Beehive State at the beginning of the season, but Mike Leach's project should be looked as as a 3 to 4 year work in progress. The Utes should still have plenty to motivate them for this game, they can still finish bowl-eligible. The Cougars are looking to play spoiler. WSU should make the game interesting, early, but the Utes should pull away late.
28-13 Utah
Montana at Weber State
It's not often that these two teams meet so late in the season with only 5 combined wins between them. The Grizzlies are limping into Steward Stadium this Saturday. But the Wildcats are worse off by far. The real question in this game is who will be the most motivated when there is so little to play for. Last week the Grizzlies really took it to punchless Idaho State, and that probably did little for their morale. Montana is definitely not used to being in this situation, and that could play to WSU's advantage. Games like this can actually be fun to watch.
33-31 WSU
Southern Utah at North Dakota
The Thunderbirds pulled off the big upset last week in their home finale. Now it may be time for the big letdown. The Fighting Sioux are also dealing with a frustrating and disappointing season and may be looking to take advantage and take their frustrations out on the visitors. The T-birds have a habit of letting the other team build a lead early and have had to come back late. That habit will not serve them well this week.
31-28 North Dakota
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