It's official. Texas A&M is leaving the Big 12. Reportedly the are joining the SEC, but no official word from the SEC as of yet.
According to Sagarin, Texas A&M goes from being 6th in a 10-team conference to being 8th in a 13-team conference.
Candidates for a 14th SEC Team include...
Virginia Tech
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Candidates for replacement Big 12 team...
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Arkansas
BYU
SMU
Houston
TCU
Source
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
The Computer Predicts.
I have taken a look at Sagarin's first computer ranking for the season. I do not put a lot of stock in pre-season computer rankings, because there is no strength of schedule component. There is also no "intangible" component...how the players adapt to pressure, experience, etc. Here is how are Utah 5 will do if Jeff Sagarin's computer is correct.
Instead of power rankings, I will run this output every week. It will be fun to see how it changes. This does not match my earlier prediction. This is computer based. My earlier prediction was my opinion.
Brigham Young.
Computers predict a successful first season as an independent for BYU.
September 3 Final BYU 14 Ole Miss 13...Computer predicted a 1 point Cougar victory.
September 10 @ Texas...BYU loses by 10.
September 17 Utah...BYU wins by 1.
September 23 Central Florida...BYU wins by 10.
September 30 Utah State...BYU wins by 21.
October 8 San Jose State...BYU wins by 27.
October 15 @ Oregon State...BYU loses by 4.
October 22 Idaho State...BYU wins by 40.
October 28 v TCU...BYU loses by 11.
November 12 Idaho...BYU wins by 20.
November 19 New Mexico State...BYU wins by 30.
December 3 @ Hawaii...BYU wins by 5.
Armed Forces Bowl
December 30 v Southern Mississippi...BYU wins by 7.
BYU finishes 10-3. Could end up 8-5.
Utah
Computers predict lots of heartbreak for the Utes.
September 1 Final...27-10 Utah. Computer predicted a 28-point Ute victory.
September 10 @ USC...Utah loses by 8.
September 17 @ BYU...Utah loses by 1.
October 1 Washington...Utah wins by 11.
October 8 Arizona State...Utah wins by 7.
October 15 @ Pittsburgh...Utah loses by 1.
October 22 @ California...Utah loses by 1.
October 29 Oregon State...Utah wins by 4.
November 5 @ Arizona...Utah loses by 1.
November 12 UCLA...Utah wins by 12.
November 19 @ Washington State...Utah wins by 17.
November 25 Colorado...Utah wins 16.
Utah qualifies for the PAC-12 title game because USC is ineligible and because they will own a tie-breaker over Arizona State.
December 3 @ Oregon...Utah loses by 11.
Sun Bowl
December 28 v Clemson...Utah wins by 3.
Utah finishes 8-6, 6-4 in conference play. Could be 12-2, 8-2 in conference play.
Conference Projection (Includes conf championship, but not the bowls)
North
Oregon 13-0, 10-0 (BCS Championship vs Alabama)
Stanford 10-2, 7-2 (Fiesta vs Oklahoma)
Oregon State 10-2, 7-2 (Alamo vs. Missouri)
California 6-6, 3-6 (Kraft Fight Hunger vs North Carolina)
Washington 4-8, 2-7
Washington State 2-10, 0-9
South
1. USC 11-1, 8-1 (Ineligible)
2. Utah (tie) 7-6, 6-4 (Sun vs. Clemson) (4th loss is conf championship)
2. Arizona State 9-3, 6-3 (Holiday vs Texas Tech)
4. Arizona 6-6, 4-5 (Las Vegas vs Boise State)
5. UCLA 3-9, 2-7
6. Colorado 3-9, 1-8
Note: The PAC-12 will not have a team for the New Mexico Bowl. The bid goes to a WAC team instead.
Utah State
Aggies are just that close to going bowling in 2011.
September 3 Final Auburn 41 Utah State 38...Computers predicted a 30 point Tiger victory.
September 10 Weber State...USU wins by 5.
September 24 Colorado State...USU wins by 2.
September 30 @ BYU...USU loses by 21.
October 8 Wyoming...USU wins in OT.
October 15 @ Fresno State...USU loses by 13.
October 22 Louisiana Tech...USU loses in OT.
November 5 @ Hawaii...USU loses by 23.
November 12 San Jose State...USU wins by 7.
November 19 @ Idaho...USU loses by 4.
November 26 Nevada...USU loses by 12.
December 3 @ New Mexico State...USU wins by 5.
USU finishes 5-7, 2-5 in WAC play. They could end up 6-6 but will still have to hope some other conference does not have enough bowl eligible teams.
Conference Projection (Bowl)
Nevada 9-3, 7-0 (Poinsettia vs. Air Force)
Hawaii 10-2, 6-1 (Hawaii vs SMU)
Fresno State 7-5, 5-2 (Idaho Famous Potato vs. Central Michigan)
Louisiana Tech 6-6, 4-3 (New Mexico vs. Toledo)
Idaho 5-7, 3-4
Utah State 5-7, 2-5
San Jose State 1-11, 1-6
New Mexico State 1-11, 0-7
Weber State
Could make the FCS playoffs again?
September 3 Wyoming 35 Weber State 32...Computer predicted a 7 point Cowboy win.
September 10 @ Utah State...Weber loses by 5.
September 17 Sacramento State...Weber wins by 5.
September 24 @ Northern Colorado...Weber wins by 9.
October 1 @ Eastern Washington...Weber loses by 10.
October 15 Idaho State...Weber wins by 18.
October 22 Southern Utah...Weber wins by 8.
October 29 @ Montana...Weber loses by 11.
November 5 Montana State...Weber wins by 3.
November 12 Northern Arizona...Weber wins by 3.
November 19 @ Portland State...Weber wins by 6.
Weber finishes 7-4, 6-2 in conference play...Enough wins to qualify for FCS playoffs, RPI is close, but probably not high enough.
Conference Projection
1. Eastern Washington (Tie) 9-2, 7-1
1. Montana 9-2, 7-1
3. Weber State (Tie) 7-4, 6-2
3. Montana State 8-3, 6-2
5. Northern Arizona 6-5, 4-4
6. Sacramento State 5-6, 3-5
7. Portland State 4-7, 2-6
8. Northern Colorado 3-8, 1-7
9. Idaho State 1-11, 0-8
Southern Utah
No love from the computers for the T-Birds this year.
September 3 Final South Dakota State 29 SUU 28...Computer predicted a 6 point Jackrabbit victory.
September 10 Sacramento State...SUU wins by 1
September 17 UTSA...SUU wins by 16.
September 24 @ UNLV...SUU loses by 10.
October 1 North Dakota...SUU wins by 6.
October 8 @ South Dakota...SUU wins by 2.
October 15 @ Cal Poly...SUU loses by 6.
October 29 UC Davis...SUU wins by 3.
November 12 @ Northern Iowa...SUU loses by 14.
November 19 Northern Arizona...SUU loses by 8.
SUU finishes 5-6, 3-1 in conference play.
Conference Projection
1. Cal-Poly 6-5, 4-0
2. Southern Utah 5-6, 3-1
3. UC Davis 5-6, 2-2
4. North Dakota 6-5, 1-3
5. South Dakota 3-8, 0-4
BTW--BCS Bowl Pairings. Rose...TCU vs. Ohio State Fiesta...Oklahoma vs Stanford Sugar...Florida vs Oklahoma State Orange...Virginia Tech vs West Virginia BCS Championship...Oregon vs. Alabama Final analysis...there is a reason why they play the game.
Instead of power rankings, I will run this output every week. It will be fun to see how it changes. This does not match my earlier prediction. This is computer based. My earlier prediction was my opinion.
Brigham Young.
Computers predict a successful first season as an independent for BYU.
September 3 Final BYU 14 Ole Miss 13...Computer predicted a 1 point Cougar victory.
September 10 @ Texas...BYU loses by 10.
September 17 Utah...BYU wins by 1.
September 23 Central Florida...BYU wins by 10.
September 30 Utah State...BYU wins by 21.
October 8 San Jose State...BYU wins by 27.
October 15 @ Oregon State...BYU loses by 4.
October 22 Idaho State...BYU wins by 40.
October 28 v TCU...BYU loses by 11.
November 12 Idaho...BYU wins by 20.
November 19 New Mexico State...BYU wins by 30.
December 3 @ Hawaii...BYU wins by 5.
Armed Forces Bowl
December 30 v Southern Mississippi...BYU wins by 7.
BYU finishes 10-3. Could end up 8-5.
Utah
Computers predict lots of heartbreak for the Utes.
September 1 Final...27-10 Utah. Computer predicted a 28-point Ute victory.
September 10 @ USC...Utah loses by 8.
September 17 @ BYU...Utah loses by 1.
October 1 Washington...Utah wins by 11.
October 8 Arizona State...Utah wins by 7.
October 15 @ Pittsburgh...Utah loses by 1.
October 22 @ California...Utah loses by 1.
October 29 Oregon State...Utah wins by 4.
November 5 @ Arizona...Utah loses by 1.
November 12 UCLA...Utah wins by 12.
November 19 @ Washington State...Utah wins by 17.
November 25 Colorado...Utah wins 16.
Utah qualifies for the PAC-12 title game because USC is ineligible and because they will own a tie-breaker over Arizona State.
December 3 @ Oregon...Utah loses by 11.
Sun Bowl
December 28 v Clemson...Utah wins by 3.
Utah finishes 8-6, 6-4 in conference play. Could be 12-2, 8-2 in conference play.
Conference Projection (Includes conf championship, but not the bowls)
North
Oregon 13-0, 10-0 (BCS Championship vs Alabama)
Stanford 10-2, 7-2 (Fiesta vs Oklahoma)
Oregon State 10-2, 7-2 (Alamo vs. Missouri)
California 6-6, 3-6 (Kraft Fight Hunger vs North Carolina)
Washington 4-8, 2-7
Washington State 2-10, 0-9
South
1. USC 11-1, 8-1 (Ineligible)
2. Utah (tie) 7-6, 6-4 (Sun vs. Clemson) (4th loss is conf championship)
2. Arizona State 9-3, 6-3 (Holiday vs Texas Tech)
4. Arizona 6-6, 4-5 (Las Vegas vs Boise State)
5. UCLA 3-9, 2-7
6. Colorado 3-9, 1-8
Note: The PAC-12 will not have a team for the New Mexico Bowl. The bid goes to a WAC team instead.
Utah State
Aggies are just that close to going bowling in 2011.
September 3 Final Auburn 41 Utah State 38...Computers predicted a 30 point Tiger victory.
September 10 Weber State...USU wins by 5.
September 24 Colorado State...USU wins by 2.
September 30 @ BYU...USU loses by 21.
October 8 Wyoming...USU wins in OT.
October 15 @ Fresno State...USU loses by 13.
October 22 Louisiana Tech...USU loses in OT.
November 5 @ Hawaii...USU loses by 23.
November 12 San Jose State...USU wins by 7.
November 19 @ Idaho...USU loses by 4.
November 26 Nevada...USU loses by 12.
December 3 @ New Mexico State...USU wins by 5.
USU finishes 5-7, 2-5 in WAC play. They could end up 6-6 but will still have to hope some other conference does not have enough bowl eligible teams.
Conference Projection (Bowl)
Nevada 9-3, 7-0 (Poinsettia vs. Air Force)
Hawaii 10-2, 6-1 (Hawaii vs SMU)
Fresno State 7-5, 5-2 (Idaho Famous Potato vs. Central Michigan)
Louisiana Tech 6-6, 4-3 (New Mexico vs. Toledo)
Idaho 5-7, 3-4
Utah State 5-7, 2-5
San Jose State 1-11, 1-6
New Mexico State 1-11, 0-7
Weber State
Could make the FCS playoffs again?
September 3 Wyoming 35 Weber State 32...Computer predicted a 7 point Cowboy win.
September 10 @ Utah State...Weber loses by 5.
September 17 Sacramento State...Weber wins by 5.
September 24 @ Northern Colorado...Weber wins by 9.
October 1 @ Eastern Washington...Weber loses by 10.
October 15 Idaho State...Weber wins by 18.
October 22 Southern Utah...Weber wins by 8.
October 29 @ Montana...Weber loses by 11.
November 5 Montana State...Weber wins by 3.
November 12 Northern Arizona...Weber wins by 3.
November 19 @ Portland State...Weber wins by 6.
Weber finishes 7-4, 6-2 in conference play...Enough wins to qualify for FCS playoffs, RPI is close, but probably not high enough.
Conference Projection
1. Eastern Washington (Tie) 9-2, 7-1
1. Montana 9-2, 7-1
3. Weber State (Tie) 7-4, 6-2
3. Montana State 8-3, 6-2
5. Northern Arizona 6-5, 4-4
6. Sacramento State 5-6, 3-5
7. Portland State 4-7, 2-6
8. Northern Colorado 3-8, 1-7
9. Idaho State 1-11, 0-8
Southern Utah
No love from the computers for the T-Birds this year.
September 3 Final South Dakota State 29 SUU 28...Computer predicted a 6 point Jackrabbit victory.
September 10 Sacramento State...SUU wins by 1
September 17 UTSA...SUU wins by 16.
September 24 @ UNLV...SUU loses by 10.
October 1 North Dakota...SUU wins by 6.
October 8 @ South Dakota...SUU wins by 2.
October 15 @ Cal Poly...SUU loses by 6.
October 29 UC Davis...SUU wins by 3.
November 12 @ Northern Iowa...SUU loses by 14.
November 19 Northern Arizona...SUU loses by 8.
SUU finishes 5-6, 3-1 in conference play.
Conference Projection
1. Cal-Poly 6-5, 4-0
2. Southern Utah 5-6, 3-1
3. UC Davis 5-6, 2-2
4. North Dakota 6-5, 1-3
5. South Dakota 3-8, 0-4
BTW--BCS Bowl Pairings. Rose...TCU vs. Ohio State Fiesta...Oklahoma vs Stanford Sugar...Florida vs Oklahoma State Orange...Virginia Tech vs West Virginia BCS Championship...Oregon vs. Alabama Final analysis...there is a reason why they play the game.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Latest on the Big 12
I have seen articles in both the Kansas City Star and the New York Times that the Big 12 is now pursuing BYU and "Programs from the Big East". This likely means that Arkansas and Notre Dame have said "no".
Stay tuned...
Solutions to the Sunday play issue.
The only sport where that appears to be a problem at this point is baseball. There are two solutions to the problem. One is to keep the baseball program in the WCC. The other is to play double headers on Saturdays.
Link to NY Times Article.
Link to KC Star Article
Stay tuned...
Solutions to the Sunday play issue.
The only sport where that appears to be a problem at this point is baseball. There are two solutions to the problem. One is to keep the baseball program in the WCC. The other is to play double headers on Saturdays.
Link to NY Times Article.
Link to KC Star Article
Sunday, August 28, 2011
BYU has been contacted by the Big 12. How to save face with the WCC?
BYU has been contacted by the Big 12, according to The Upset Blog. There is one aspect of that article I would like to focus on.
BYU needs to find a way to save face with the WCC. Everyone should realize that the WCC fans are going to be royally upset that BYU only sticks with them for 1 year.
Here are some ideas that I have to save face with the WCC.
1. Join the Big 12 in non-WCC sports at first, then have basketball and the other sports follow to the Big 12 in a 2 to 3 year time-frame. This means that BYU joins the Big 12 in Football, Gymnastics, Swimming/Diving, Indoor and Outdoor Track and Field and Softball right away, but joins in all other sports (Men's and Women's basketball, Baseball, Cross Country, Golf, Soccer, Tennis and Women's Volleyball) after 2014 or 2015.
2. Have a scheduling agreement, much like the MWC has with the MVC, between the WCC and the Big 12. Guarantee that 2-3 games per years will be on ESPN/ABC. (Credit the KSL guys Greg Wrubbel and Jeremiah Jensen for this one.)
3. Pay a handsome exit fee to the WCC.
Certainly, the WCC may have figured that BYU's membership could be short term to begin with. But how could they have passed it up? There may have been an exit clause for BYU written in. The contract was never made public. These ideas are to save face with the WCC fans and to keep a good relationship between the LDS church and the religions that sponsor the other WCC schools.
Patrick Kinehan and ESPN 700 (the Utah University Flagship station) in response says that BYU should not worry too much about about upsetting the WCC. His argument is that basketball was sacrificed for the sake of football. That BYU's basketball program will get plenty of exposure as a member of the Big 12. Can't argue with his logic either.
As a side note...In either the Big 12 or the WCC, the Marriott Center, with it's 22,000 seat capacity is the largest arena by far. The Big 12; the average basketball arena is around 12,000. The WCC, the average is around 4,000. In the WCC, BYU has the largest baseball stadium. But that would be the 2nd smallest in the Big 12.
Another side note...near every WCC city lies a Mormon Temple. Which means plenty of BYU fans nearby. In the WCC the farthest you find yourself from a temple is at Santa Clara University which is about 40 miles from the Oakland, California Temple. In Big 12, it is well over 100 miles from Iowa State University to the Winter Quarters, Nebraska Temple. The only Big 12 school with a temple in the same city is Texas Tech.
Temples in WCC cities...
San Diego California (San Diego)
Los Angeles California (Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount)
Oakland California (Santa Clara, San Francisco and St. Mary's)
Portland (Lake Oswego) Oregon (Portland U)
Spokane (Opportunity) Washington (Gonzaga)
Nearest Temples to Big 12 towns
Lubbock Texas (Texas Tech)
San Antonio Texas (U Texas)
Houston (Klein) Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M)
Oklahoma City (Yukon) Oklahoma (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State)
Kansas City Missouri (Under Construction) (Kansas and Kansas State)
St. Louis Missouri (Missouri)
Winter Quarters Nebraska (Iowa State)
Other things about BYU joining the Big 12 go without saying. No Sunday play. A game with Utah in every sport every season. Not interrupting the Notre Dame agreement. Iron clad commitment from Oklahoma and Texas. BYUTV.
***
A source at the Dallas Morning News (@ChuckCarltonDMN) says that this will be the new Big 12 alignment. He says...book it.
South
Baylor
Brigham Young
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
North
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Personally, I thing that he is just waging a bet via twitter and not making an announcement. I am more comfortable with my assertion that Pittsburgh would rather be in the ACC, especially if West Virginia--their arch rival--is there. But there is a good chance that if the Big 12 can get Notre Dame, they can get Arkansas. Although, Arkansas might stay in the SEC with Texas A&M. And if Arkansas is in the Big 12, I bet that they will be in the South Division.
BYU needs to find a way to save face with the WCC. Everyone should realize that the WCC fans are going to be royally upset that BYU only sticks with them for 1 year.
Here are some ideas that I have to save face with the WCC.
1. Join the Big 12 in non-WCC sports at first, then have basketball and the other sports follow to the Big 12 in a 2 to 3 year time-frame. This means that BYU joins the Big 12 in Football, Gymnastics, Swimming/Diving, Indoor and Outdoor Track and Field and Softball right away, but joins in all other sports (Men's and Women's basketball, Baseball, Cross Country, Golf, Soccer, Tennis and Women's Volleyball) after 2014 or 2015.
2. Have a scheduling agreement, much like the MWC has with the MVC, between the WCC and the Big 12. Guarantee that 2-3 games per years will be on ESPN/ABC. (Credit the KSL guys Greg Wrubbel and Jeremiah Jensen for this one.)
3. Pay a handsome exit fee to the WCC.
Certainly, the WCC may have figured that BYU's membership could be short term to begin with. But how could they have passed it up? There may have been an exit clause for BYU written in. The contract was never made public. These ideas are to save face with the WCC fans and to keep a good relationship between the LDS church and the religions that sponsor the other WCC schools.
Patrick Kinehan and ESPN 700 (the Utah University Flagship station) in response says that BYU should not worry too much about about upsetting the WCC. His argument is that basketball was sacrificed for the sake of football. That BYU's basketball program will get plenty of exposure as a member of the Big 12. Can't argue with his logic either.
As a side note...In either the Big 12 or the WCC, the Marriott Center, with it's 22,000 seat capacity is the largest arena by far. The Big 12; the average basketball arena is around 12,000. The WCC, the average is around 4,000. In the WCC, BYU has the largest baseball stadium. But that would be the 2nd smallest in the Big 12.
Another side note...near every WCC city lies a Mormon Temple. Which means plenty of BYU fans nearby. In the WCC the farthest you find yourself from a temple is at Santa Clara University which is about 40 miles from the Oakland, California Temple. In Big 12, it is well over 100 miles from Iowa State University to the Winter Quarters, Nebraska Temple. The only Big 12 school with a temple in the same city is Texas Tech.
Temples in WCC cities...
San Diego California (San Diego)
Los Angeles California (Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount)
Oakland California (Santa Clara, San Francisco and St. Mary's)
Portland (Lake Oswego) Oregon (Portland U)
Spokane (Opportunity) Washington (Gonzaga)
Nearest Temples to Big 12 towns
Lubbock Texas (Texas Tech)
San Antonio Texas (U Texas)
Houston (Klein) Texas (Baylor, Texas A&M)
Oklahoma City (Yukon) Oklahoma (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State)
Kansas City Missouri (Under Construction) (Kansas and Kansas State)
St. Louis Missouri (Missouri)
Winter Quarters Nebraska (Iowa State)
Other things about BYU joining the Big 12 go without saying. No Sunday play. A game with Utah in every sport every season. Not interrupting the Notre Dame agreement. Iron clad commitment from Oklahoma and Texas. BYUTV.
***
A source at the Dallas Morning News (@ChuckCarltonDMN) says that this will be the new Big 12 alignment. He says...book it.
South
Baylor
Brigham Young
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
North
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Personally, I thing that he is just waging a bet via twitter and not making an announcement. I am more comfortable with my assertion that Pittsburgh would rather be in the ACC, especially if West Virginia--their arch rival--is there. But there is a good chance that if the Big 12 can get Notre Dame, they can get Arkansas. Although, Arkansas might stay in the SEC with Texas A&M. And if Arkansas is in the Big 12, I bet that they will be in the South Division.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
What Would BYU's Transition to the Big 12 Look Like?
The Big 12 has discussed adding four schools, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburg and BYU. They are not going to get Arkansas or Notre Dame. If ND has not joined a conference, it likely will not do so, unless the 4-Super-16 scenario comes to pass. You would see ND as part of the B1G Ten.
Pittsburgh, maybe. But they would consider travel expenses. Pittsburgh may be counting on becoming part of the ACC-14. If the ACC loses Florida State to the SEC, I look for the ACC to add three to become 14. That could include Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Rutgers. But you have to dream big and go bold if you expect to survive...well it backfired on the WAC, it may cost the Big 12, too.
It is almost too late to for changes to the 2012 season. I expect that the Big 12 will play with 9 for the 2012 season and the SEC to play with 13 for the 2012 season. I expect that BYU will join the Big 12 for football only, or for non-WCC sports for 2 or 3 seasons. This will give people in the conference time to adjust to the no-Sunday schedule. Let me also state that I am looking forward to the Big 12 soccer championship possibly coming to Rio Tinto Stadium.
I expect that the Big 12 will have to consider Houston, SMU, Air Force, UNLV and Boise State to get back to 12 from 9. In my scenario, Houston replaces Texas A&M in the south and BYU and Boise State in the north where Colorado and Nebraska used to be. This would be the best scenario for BYU. It means that they would not have to cancel any games for the 2013 season. Look at how the schedule could work out for BYU if the Big 12 adds BYU, Boise State and Houston. BYU would not have to drop any games already scheduled because they have a road game in Hawaii and Texas, Boise State and Houston become conference games.
A31 Kansas
S7 Texas
S14 @ Hawaii
S21 Utah
S28 @ Baylor
O4 @Utah State
O12 Ga Tech
O19 @Houston
O26 Missouri
N2 Bye
N9 Iowa State
N16 @ Notre Dame
N23 @ Kansas State
N30 Boise State
D7 Big 12 Championship Game--Arlington, TX
Bold games are on the schedule already. I took the liberty to move the Boise State game to the last game of the season.
Pittsburgh, maybe. But they would consider travel expenses. Pittsburgh may be counting on becoming part of the ACC-14. If the ACC loses Florida State to the SEC, I look for the ACC to add three to become 14. That could include Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Rutgers. But you have to dream big and go bold if you expect to survive...well it backfired on the WAC, it may cost the Big 12, too.
It is almost too late to for changes to the 2012 season. I expect that the Big 12 will play with 9 for the 2012 season and the SEC to play with 13 for the 2012 season. I expect that BYU will join the Big 12 for football only, or for non-WCC sports for 2 or 3 seasons. This will give people in the conference time to adjust to the no-Sunday schedule. Let me also state that I am looking forward to the Big 12 soccer championship possibly coming to Rio Tinto Stadium.
I expect that the Big 12 will have to consider Houston, SMU, Air Force, UNLV and Boise State to get back to 12 from 9. In my scenario, Houston replaces Texas A&M in the south and BYU and Boise State in the north where Colorado and Nebraska used to be. This would be the best scenario for BYU. It means that they would not have to cancel any games for the 2013 season. Look at how the schedule could work out for BYU if the Big 12 adds BYU, Boise State and Houston. BYU would not have to drop any games already scheduled because they have a road game in Hawaii and Texas, Boise State and Houston become conference games.
A31 Kansas
S7 Texas
S14 @ Hawaii
S21 Utah
S28 @ Baylor
O4 @Utah State
O12 Ga Tech
O19 @Houston
O26 Missouri
N2 Bye
N9 Iowa State
N16 @ Notre Dame
N23 @ Kansas State
N30 Boise State
D7 Big 12 Championship Game--Arlington, TX
Bold games are on the schedule already. I took the liberty to move the Boise State game to the last game of the season.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Texas A&M Makes a Move?
Texas A&M informed the Big 12 that they are looking at other options. So what do we know today that we did not know last week?
Monday, August 22, 2011
Saving The WAC...August 23, 2011...Appalachian State to Move to FBS.
The Appalachian State Mountaineers, the same team that shocked Michigan in "The Big House" 3 seasons ago is moving up to the Football Bowl Subdivision.
They are one of the best supported and consistently winning FCS team over the past decade. Also reminds me of a certain other university somewhere east of Spokane and north of Idaho Falls that is very similar in every respect to Appalachian State. The difference is that Appalachian State is not being called upon to rescue a dying conference. The Mountaineer football program will end up in either the Sun Belt Conference or maybe even Conference-USA.
Good Luck to Appalachian State.
They are one of the best supported and consistently winning FCS team over the past decade. Also reminds me of a certain other university somewhere east of Spokane and north of Idaho Falls that is very similar in every respect to Appalachian State. The difference is that Appalachian State is not being called upon to rescue a dying conference. The Mountaineer football program will end up in either the Sun Belt Conference or maybe even Conference-USA.
Good Luck to Appalachian State.
What if there were an FBS playoff...the first look.
What if there were an NCAA playoff at the highest level of college football instead of the bowl system. Here is how the playoffs would work out.
There is no Harris Poll, nor RPI, nor computer rankings at this point of the season, because teams have yet to play a game. This is based upon the pre-season polls. As history has shown, this is likely not how it will turn out in the end.
Six traditional bowls are involved in the playoff, plus I resurrected the Gotham Bowl so that the Northeast Region would get a game. This means that 5 bowl games, including the current BCS championship game would be decommissioned. The Sugar, Rose, Fiesta and Orange rotate the final for the first 12 years before other sites are permitted to bid. The bowl which hosts the previous national championship games is relegated to the quarter finals. The other two bowls host the semi-finals.
As with the FCS championships, teams with 3 or more losses are not eligible for the playoffs and teams from the same conference are not to play each other in either the first or second round games. The higher seeded team hosts the first and second round games.
Automatic Bids
ACC-Florida State
Big 12-Oklahoma
Big East-West Virginia
Big 10-Nebraska
C-USA-Central Florida
MAC-Miami of Ohio
MWC-Boise State
PAC 12-Oregon
SEC-Alabama
WAC-Hawaii
Sun Belt-Middle Tennessee
Seedings (Automatic bids are in CAPS)
1. OKLAHOMA
2. ALABAMA
3. OREGON
4. Louisiana State
5. BOISE STATE
6. FLORIDA STATE
7. Stanford
8. Texas A&M
9. NEBRASKA
10. Oklahoma State
11. Wisconsin
12. South Carolina
13. Virginia Tech
14. Texas Christian
15. Notre Dame
16. WEST VIRGINIA
17. HAWAII
18. CENTRAL FLORIDA
19. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
20. MIAMI (OHIO)
First Round Games
Game 1
20. Miami (OH) at 13. Virginia Tech
Game 2
19. Middle Tennessee at 14. TCU
Game 3
18. Central Florida at 15. Notre Dame
Game 4
17. Hawaii at 16. West Virginia
Second Round Games
Game 4 winner at 1. Oklahoma
9. Nebraska at 8. Texas A&M
Winners to play in the Cotton Bowl (Mid-West Region)
Game 1 winner at 4. LSU
12. South Carolina at 7. Stanford
Winners to play in the Gotham Bowl (Northeast Region)
Game 2 winner at 3. Oregon
11. Wisconsin at 6. Florida State
Winners to play in the Fiesta Bowl (West Region)
Game 3 winner at 2. Alabama
10. Oklahoma State at 7. Stanford
Winners to play in the Gator Bowl (Southeast Region)
Semi-Finals
Rose Bowl--Pasadena, CA
Cotton Bowl Winner vs. Gator Bowl Winner
Orange Bowl--Miami Gardens, FL
Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Gotham Bowl Winner
Championship
Sugar Bowl--New Orleans, Louisiana
Quarter Finals
Fiesta Bowl (West)--Glendale, AZ
Cotton Bowl (Midwest)--Arlington, TX
Gator Bowl (Southeast)--Jacksonville, FL
Gotham Bowl (Northeast)--East Rutherford, NJ
Last 4 in
Notre Dame, TCU, Virginia Tech, South Carolina
First 4 out
Arkansas, Michigan State, Georgia, Mississippi State
Next 4 out
Florida, Auburn, Missouri, Texas
Also Lurking
USC, Penn State, Arizona State, Utah, Brigham Young, Iowa, Northwestern, Southern Mississippi, Arizona, Michigan, Air Force.
There is no Harris Poll, nor RPI, nor computer rankings at this point of the season, because teams have yet to play a game. This is based upon the pre-season polls. As history has shown, this is likely not how it will turn out in the end.
Six traditional bowls are involved in the playoff, plus I resurrected the Gotham Bowl so that the Northeast Region would get a game. This means that 5 bowl games, including the current BCS championship game would be decommissioned. The Sugar, Rose, Fiesta and Orange rotate the final for the first 12 years before other sites are permitted to bid. The bowl which hosts the previous national championship games is relegated to the quarter finals. The other two bowls host the semi-finals.
As with the FCS championships, teams with 3 or more losses are not eligible for the playoffs and teams from the same conference are not to play each other in either the first or second round games. The higher seeded team hosts the first and second round games.
Automatic Bids
ACC-Florida State
Big 12-Oklahoma
Big East-West Virginia
Big 10-Nebraska
C-USA-Central Florida
MAC-Miami of Ohio
MWC-Boise State
PAC 12-Oregon
SEC-Alabama
WAC-Hawaii
Sun Belt-Middle Tennessee
Seedings (Automatic bids are in CAPS)
1. OKLAHOMA
2. ALABAMA
3. OREGON
4. Louisiana State
5. BOISE STATE
6. FLORIDA STATE
7. Stanford
8. Texas A&M
9. NEBRASKA
10. Oklahoma State
11. Wisconsin
12. South Carolina
13. Virginia Tech
14. Texas Christian
15. Notre Dame
16. WEST VIRGINIA
17. HAWAII
18. CENTRAL FLORIDA
19. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
20. MIAMI (OHIO)
First Round Games
Game 1
20. Miami (OH) at 13. Virginia Tech
Game 2
19. Middle Tennessee at 14. TCU
Game 3
18. Central Florida at 15. Notre Dame
Game 4
17. Hawaii at 16. West Virginia
Second Round Games
Game 4 winner at 1. Oklahoma
9. Nebraska at 8. Texas A&M
Winners to play in the Cotton Bowl (Mid-West Region)
Game 1 winner at 4. LSU
12. South Carolina at 7. Stanford
Winners to play in the Gotham Bowl (Northeast Region)
Game 2 winner at 3. Oregon
11. Wisconsin at 6. Florida State
Winners to play in the Fiesta Bowl (West Region)
Game 3 winner at 2. Alabama
10. Oklahoma State at 7. Stanford
Winners to play in the Gator Bowl (Southeast Region)
Semi-Finals
Rose Bowl--Pasadena, CA
Cotton Bowl Winner vs. Gator Bowl Winner
Orange Bowl--Miami Gardens, FL
Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Gotham Bowl Winner
Championship
Sugar Bowl--New Orleans, Louisiana
Quarter Finals
Fiesta Bowl (West)--Glendale, AZ
Cotton Bowl (Midwest)--Arlington, TX
Gator Bowl (Southeast)--Jacksonville, FL
Gotham Bowl (Northeast)--East Rutherford, NJ
Last 4 in
Notre Dame, TCU, Virginia Tech, South Carolina
First 4 out
Arkansas, Michigan State, Georgia, Mississippi State
Next 4 out
Florida, Auburn, Missouri, Texas
Also Lurking
USC, Penn State, Arizona State, Utah, Brigham Young, Iowa, Northwestern, Southern Mississippi, Arizona, Michigan, Air Force.
Friday, August 19, 2011
BYU and Weber State to Meet in 2012.
BYU and Weber State have announced that they will meet on Saturday, September 8, 2012 in Provo at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The game will mark the third meeting between the two schools and the first since 1978. Both games were lop-sided Cougar victories.
Coach Ron McBride will make his 7th appearance as the Cougars opposing coach. He lost his first and last game in Provo as Utah's head coach. But he won the other 4, including the first famous 34-31 game in 1993. Utah also won 34-17 in 1995, 20-14 in 1997, and 20-17 in 1999. The four consecutive Utah wins in Provo still stick into the craw of Cougar fans and are something that never happened with any other opponent when the legendary LaVell Edwards was the Cougar coach (LaVell almost never lost two in a row to the same opponent). In his last visit to Provo, he suffered a heartbreaking 24-21 loss to the Cougars in 2001 on a late long touchdown run by that year's Doak Walker winner, Luke Staley.
The 71-year-old McBride may be making his last trip to Provo as the head coach of the opposing team. There may not be an opportunity for Coach McBride to "even" his record in Provo. But the visit will definitely be nostalgic for both Coach McBride and the Cougar Faithful.
Coach Ron McBride will make his 7th appearance as the Cougars opposing coach. He lost his first and last game in Provo as Utah's head coach. But he won the other 4, including the first famous 34-31 game in 1993. Utah also won 34-17 in 1995, 20-14 in 1997, and 20-17 in 1999. The four consecutive Utah wins in Provo still stick into the craw of Cougar fans and are something that never happened with any other opponent when the legendary LaVell Edwards was the Cougar coach (LaVell almost never lost two in a row to the same opponent). In his last visit to Provo, he suffered a heartbreaking 24-21 loss to the Cougars in 2001 on a late long touchdown run by that year's Doak Walker winner, Luke Staley.
The 71-year-old McBride may be making his last trip to Provo as the head coach of the opposing team. There may not be an opportunity for Coach McBride to "even" his record in Provo. But the visit will definitely be nostalgic for both Coach McBride and the Cougar Faithful.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Pure Speculation...How I Believe the Conference Realignment will Shake Out
This is pure speculation on my part...
Now that the Texas A&M rumors are settled down, I wish to state that I do not believe that the college football world is ready for 16-team conferences. But they are set up, with 9 conference games being the new norm, for 14-team conferences. A 16-team conference with 9 conference games is too disruptive to rivalries. Until a conference figures out a way to rotate a schedule for a 16 team conference that allows traditional rivalries to exists across division boundaries, the era of the super conference is out of reach.
With 9 conference games and a 7-team division, a team can schedule one game against each team in their division. 1 games against a rival from another division. And play the remaining 6 teams, two at a time, over a three year period.
Here is how I perceive it will shake down. The SEC will move first. They will add Texas A&M and Florida State. They will have Texas A&M in the West Division and Florida State in the East Division.
The Big 12 will become the Big 14. They will add TCU and Houston in the South Division. They will push hard for Notre Dame, but will take Boise State instead. They will add BYU, Boise State and Air Force in the North Division.
Big 14 North
Air Force
Boise State
Brigham Young
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Big 14 South
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
The ACC, down 1 with the loss of Florida State will add 3 to move to 16. My speculation is that the ACC will add Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Rutgers. (Some say UConn and some say Syracuse instead of Rutgers. I am going for the team closest to New York). I do not know how the divisions will work out, as I can't figure out the logic of the current divisional alignment. I am certain I am not alone in this.
Big East.
The Big East has lost 4, in my scenario. I suspect that Villanova will accept their invitation. I do not believe the Big East will make a move to become a super conference at this time. They will simply try to maintain their automatic qualifying status without TCU, Pittsburgh, West Virgina and Rutgers (or UConn or Syracuse). They will take baby steps. I suspect, in addition to Villanova, they will add Army, Navy and Central Florida to get back to 9. They will still have UConn, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville and South Florida. They may also make a move to spin off the non-football members into a new conference. They could also add Temple as a lure to ensure Villanova will move up. They will not go to 12 because they do not have the clout to get away with making too many waves. But they will still take a hard look at East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, SMU and Tulsa.
Conference USA
They were left alone in 2010, but they could be devastated by the new round of realignment. If they are lucky, they will only lose UCF. But they may also lose East Carolina, SMU, Southern Mississippi or Tulsa. Tulane could drop football as well. My hunch is the top replacement candidate will be Middle Tennessee. But there are no shortage of potential replacements should C-USA lose 3 or more members. Possible replacements include: Louisiana Tech, UTSA or New Mexico State from the WAC. North Texas, South Alabama, Arkansas State or any of a number of Sun Belt Conference schools. C-USA may even pick up Appalachian State or Georgia Southern from the FCS.
Mountain West
If the MWC loses both Air Force and Boise State, their quest to become a BCS AQ conference may take a big blow, but if Rocky Long can continue to build San Diego State, and if Fresno State can get a better coach than Pat Hill, it will not be permanently lost. They also still have Nevada and Hawaii. I am certain that Utah State will get an invite, but I do not think that they will stop there. Since there are no other really good FBS football schools out west, the MWC may do something that something is unconventional. They could do something that the WAC was not able to do. Lure Montana and Montana State out of the Big Sky to expand to 12. The computers rankings say that Montana is a better football school than San Jose State, Idaho and New Mexico State. So I say, why not.
Big 10 and Pac 12
I do not see them making moves at this time. But eventually, the Big 14 will be sacrificed when the super conference era officially begins.
WAC
As I stated in an earlier blog, when the WAC drops to 5 football schools and can not find replacements, it will suspend operations as a football conference. Unfortunately, I do not see the WAC able to find replacements for Utah State and UTSA/Louisiana Tech. I do see New Mexico State and Texas State and either UTSA/Louisiana Tech in the Sun Belt Conference. But what about Idaho and San Jose State? I see Idaho returning to the Big Sky Conference. I see San Jose State as either an FCS independent initially and then perhaps seeing San Jose State lead a resurrected Big West Football Conference. But that new conference would still be at the FCS level. I can see San Jose State lobbying for a return to football at Pacific, Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara, CS Northridge and CS Fullerton. I don't know if they will be successful at all 5 schools, but somewhere in California, football will return. This will not happen right away and will take a few years to develop. They could be joined by Cal Poly, UC Davis and Sacramento State. Otherwise, San Jose State has to hope the MWC will expand to 12 and pick them.
A resurrected Big West Conference at the FCS level is needed to counter the Big Sky Conference. Not that the BSC is evil, like The Borg from Star Trek, but because the BSC needs FCS non-conference opponents. Whether or not the ego of Doug Fullerton will admit that at this time is another question that I will not attempt to answer.
The WAC will survive as a non football conference. They could merge with the Great West Conference but let Chicago State and New Jersey Tech find a better regional fit. That means adding Utah Valley, Houston Baptist and Texas Pan-American. They can also add independent CS Bakersfield and Texas A&M Corpus Christi, the lone remaining non-football member out of the Southland Conference. If this happens, the WAC maintains their NCAA bid.
Sun Belt
They will be fine, as there will be left-overs for them to pick up.
Now that the Texas A&M rumors are settled down, I wish to state that I do not believe that the college football world is ready for 16-team conferences. But they are set up, with 9 conference games being the new norm, for 14-team conferences. A 16-team conference with 9 conference games is too disruptive to rivalries. Until a conference figures out a way to rotate a schedule for a 16 team conference that allows traditional rivalries to exists across division boundaries, the era of the super conference is out of reach.
With 9 conference games and a 7-team division, a team can schedule one game against each team in their division. 1 games against a rival from another division. And play the remaining 6 teams, two at a time, over a three year period.
Here is how I perceive it will shake down. The SEC will move first. They will add Texas A&M and Florida State. They will have Texas A&M in the West Division and Florida State in the East Division.
The Big 12 will become the Big 14. They will add TCU and Houston in the South Division. They will push hard for Notre Dame, but will take Boise State instead. They will add BYU, Boise State and Air Force in the North Division.
Big 14 North
Air Force
Boise State
Brigham Young
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Big 14 South
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
The ACC, down 1 with the loss of Florida State will add 3 to move to 16. My speculation is that the ACC will add Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Rutgers. (Some say UConn and some say Syracuse instead of Rutgers. I am going for the team closest to New York). I do not know how the divisions will work out, as I can't figure out the logic of the current divisional alignment. I am certain I am not alone in this.
Big East.
The Big East has lost 4, in my scenario. I suspect that Villanova will accept their invitation. I do not believe the Big East will make a move to become a super conference at this time. They will simply try to maintain their automatic qualifying status without TCU, Pittsburgh, West Virgina and Rutgers (or UConn or Syracuse). They will take baby steps. I suspect, in addition to Villanova, they will add Army, Navy and Central Florida to get back to 9. They will still have UConn, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville and South Florida. They may also make a move to spin off the non-football members into a new conference. They could also add Temple as a lure to ensure Villanova will move up. They will not go to 12 because they do not have the clout to get away with making too many waves. But they will still take a hard look at East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, SMU and Tulsa.
Conference USA
They were left alone in 2010, but they could be devastated by the new round of realignment. If they are lucky, they will only lose UCF. But they may also lose East Carolina, SMU, Southern Mississippi or Tulsa. Tulane could drop football as well. My hunch is the top replacement candidate will be Middle Tennessee. But there are no shortage of potential replacements should C-USA lose 3 or more members. Possible replacements include: Louisiana Tech, UTSA or New Mexico State from the WAC. North Texas, South Alabama, Arkansas State or any of a number of Sun Belt Conference schools. C-USA may even pick up Appalachian State or Georgia Southern from the FCS.
Mountain West
If the MWC loses both Air Force and Boise State, their quest to become a BCS AQ conference may take a big blow, but if Rocky Long can continue to build San Diego State, and if Fresno State can get a better coach than Pat Hill, it will not be permanently lost. They also still have Nevada and Hawaii. I am certain that Utah State will get an invite, but I do not think that they will stop there. Since there are no other really good FBS football schools out west, the MWC may do something that something is unconventional. They could do something that the WAC was not able to do. Lure Montana and Montana State out of the Big Sky to expand to 12. The computers rankings say that Montana is a better football school than San Jose State, Idaho and New Mexico State. So I say, why not.
Big 10 and Pac 12
I do not see them making moves at this time. But eventually, the Big 14 will be sacrificed when the super conference era officially begins.
WAC
As I stated in an earlier blog, when the WAC drops to 5 football schools and can not find replacements, it will suspend operations as a football conference. Unfortunately, I do not see the WAC able to find replacements for Utah State and UTSA/Louisiana Tech. I do see New Mexico State and Texas State and either UTSA/Louisiana Tech in the Sun Belt Conference. But what about Idaho and San Jose State? I see Idaho returning to the Big Sky Conference. I see San Jose State as either an FCS independent initially and then perhaps seeing San Jose State lead a resurrected Big West Football Conference. But that new conference would still be at the FCS level. I can see San Jose State lobbying for a return to football at Pacific, Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara, CS Northridge and CS Fullerton. I don't know if they will be successful at all 5 schools, but somewhere in California, football will return. This will not happen right away and will take a few years to develop. They could be joined by Cal Poly, UC Davis and Sacramento State. Otherwise, San Jose State has to hope the MWC will expand to 12 and pick them.
A resurrected Big West Conference at the FCS level is needed to counter the Big Sky Conference. Not that the BSC is evil, like The Borg from Star Trek, but because the BSC needs FCS non-conference opponents. Whether or not the ego of Doug Fullerton will admit that at this time is another question that I will not attempt to answer.
The WAC will survive as a non football conference. They could merge with the Great West Conference but let Chicago State and New Jersey Tech find a better regional fit. That means adding Utah Valley, Houston Baptist and Texas Pan-American. They can also add independent CS Bakersfield and Texas A&M Corpus Christi, the lone remaining non-football member out of the Southland Conference. If this happens, the WAC maintains their NCAA bid.
Sun Belt
They will be fine, as there will be left-overs for them to pick up.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Saving the WAC...What would kill off the WAC for good.
What scenario would finish off the WAC for good, you ask? Isn't is all-but finished anyway? Not exactly. There are still 7 football members, one short of the 8 needed for BCS consideration. However, that point is moot considering the quality of the remaining programs. They still have one bowl tie-in and certainly could have good fill-in programs for other bowls, should there be openings.
What is the magic number? Following the same pattern as the Big West Conference, it is 5. At 6, you still have a conference, at 5 you do not. The Big West Conference stopped sponsoring football after the 2000 season when Boise state left to join the WAC. Three of the remaining 5, Utah State, Idaho and New Mexico State joined the Sun Belt Conference for football only and kept their other sports with the Big West until they joined the WAC. The other 2, North Texas and Arkansas State joined the Sun Belt full-time.
Therefore, the WAC is two programs away from being a basketball-only conference or from going out of business completely. What programs are likely to go and where are they likely to go to?
The WAC is likely one domino away from being history. Let's examine why.
Higher Risk
Utah State is likely to leave the WAC next if the Mountain West needs a replacement. The MWC will have 9 full-time members in 2012 plus Hawaii as a football-only member. If Air Force or Bosie State joins the Big 12, as they are considered by many to be on the Big 12 short list, then look for Utah State to get an invite to the MWC.
Idaho has had attendance issues ever since the day it moved up from the FCS back in the 1990s. They have a stadium that is not big enough, and even though they are indoors, their fans have to travel a long way to get to the games from wherever in the state they come from. During bad whether is when Idaho has the most trouble with attendance. Idaho could be relegated to the FCS by the NCAA.
San Jose State is considered an afterthought in the Bay Area sports world. After the 49ers, Raiders, Athletics, Giants, Warriors, Sharks, Golden Bears and Cardinal is there any room left in the hearts of Northern California for the Spartans? Even so, they have a market that would also be attractive to the Mountain West, but only if the MWC expands to 12 or loses more than 1 school.
UTSA plays in the Alamodome, and only shares their market with the NBA's Spurs. There isn't even a AAA baseball team in the Alamo city. This has got Boise State type potential written all over it. Should be an attractive option to Conference USA should they need to rebuild.
Louisiana Tech has been hoping to get into Conference USA since trouble began in WAC-land last year. Sure, there is some basketball tradition in Rushton, but not much else. At least the Sun Belt is a better geographical fit than the WAC.
Lower Risk
Texas State took the WAC invitation ahead of waiting for the Sun Belt in upgrading their program.
New Mexico State has to be wondering why they ever left the Sun Belt Conference to begin with.
Is there hope?
-Montana and any of a slew of other FCS programs could change their mind about moving conferences and upgrading to the FBS.
-Some Big West programs, like Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara or Pacific could return to the Gridiron and join the WAC as football-only members.
-The NCAA could put a moratorium on FBS conference expansion, except for FCS members upgrading. This could stabilize the WAC as well as other conferences.
The Big 12 could dissolve and leave Iowa State and/or Baylor for the WAC to pick up.
What could kill the WAC?
-If the Big 12 invites Air Force or Boise State. The MWC would probably invite Utah State to take their place.
-If C-USA loses UCF, Houston or SMU and invites UTSA and/or Louisiana Tech as replacements.
-If Idaho is relegated back to the FCS due to attendance.
It would take two of the five to kill football in the WAC.
In review, the demise of Big West Conference football. In 1969, the Big West Conference formed as the PCAA with 7 members. Here is how it when down.
Original 7
San Diego State--Joined the WAC in 1976
Long Beach State--Dropped football after 1991 season
Fresno State--Joined the WAC in 1992
Pacific--Dropped football after 1995 season
San Jose State--Joined the WAC in 1996
UC Santa Barbara--Dropped to D-IAA (FCS) in 1971 and dropped football after 1989. Rejoined as a non-football school in 1975
CS Los Angeles--Stopped sponsoring sports after 1971
CS Fullerton--Joined in 1975 dropped football after 1992 season
UC Irvine joined as a non-football School in 1977
Utah State--Joined in 1978 and stayed until 2000
UNLV--Joined in 1982, joined WAC in 1996
New Mexico State--Joined in 1984 and stayed until 2000
Nevada--Joined in 1992 and joined WAC in 2000
Louisiana Layfayete*--Joined in 1993 Joined Sun Belt in 1996
Northern Illinois*--Joined in 1993 joined MAC in 1996
Arkansas State*--Joined in 1993 joined ?Sun Belt in 1996 rejoined in 1999 Stayed until 2000.
Louisiana Tech*--Joined in 1993 joined Sun Belt in 1996
Cal Poly--Joined in 1996 but kept football program at (D-IAA) FCS level.
Idaho--Joined in 1996 and stayed until 2000
North Texas--Joined in 1996 stayed until 2000
Boise State--Joined in 1996 joined WAC in 2001. It was the loss of Boise State that caused the Big West to stop sponsoring football.
After Football
CS Northridge--Joined in 2001 after dropping football
UC Riverside--Joined in 2001
UC Davis--Joined in 2007
Hawaii--Will join in 2012, but the football Warriors will be part of the MWC.
*Football-only member
After the 2000 season when Boise State was invited to join the WAC; Utah State, New Mexico State and Idaho joined the Sun Belt Conference for football only and later joined the WAC. North Texas and Arkansas State joined the Sun Belt Conference for all sports.
Similarities between the WAC and Big West
-All original WAC members are gone. All original Big West members had either moved on or dropped football by 1995.
-Big West became geographically dispersed. Travel costs overwhelmed many.
-Big West was divided between football-only members, full sports members, members with football programs in the lower division and non-football members. There was a loss of unity. The non-football members eventually won out.
-It was the loss of Boise State that put WAC football on life support. It was the loss of Boise State that put an end to Big West football. Another Boise State move could be the domino that ends WAC football.
Finally,
I believe that with the addition of Devner, Seattle and Texas Arlington, and with CS Bakersfield and Utah Valley still interested, the Western Athletic Conference, like the Big West, will continue as a non-football conference.
What is the magic number? Following the same pattern as the Big West Conference, it is 5. At 6, you still have a conference, at 5 you do not. The Big West Conference stopped sponsoring football after the 2000 season when Boise state left to join the WAC. Three of the remaining 5, Utah State, Idaho and New Mexico State joined the Sun Belt Conference for football only and kept their other sports with the Big West until they joined the WAC. The other 2, North Texas and Arkansas State joined the Sun Belt full-time.
Therefore, the WAC is two programs away from being a basketball-only conference or from going out of business completely. What programs are likely to go and where are they likely to go to?
The WAC is likely one domino away from being history. Let's examine why.
Higher Risk
Utah State is likely to leave the WAC next if the Mountain West needs a replacement. The MWC will have 9 full-time members in 2012 plus Hawaii as a football-only member. If Air Force or Bosie State joins the Big 12, as they are considered by many to be on the Big 12 short list, then look for Utah State to get an invite to the MWC.
Idaho has had attendance issues ever since the day it moved up from the FCS back in the 1990s. They have a stadium that is not big enough, and even though they are indoors, their fans have to travel a long way to get to the games from wherever in the state they come from. During bad whether is when Idaho has the most trouble with attendance. Idaho could be relegated to the FCS by the NCAA.
San Jose State is considered an afterthought in the Bay Area sports world. After the 49ers, Raiders, Athletics, Giants, Warriors, Sharks, Golden Bears and Cardinal is there any room left in the hearts of Northern California for the Spartans? Even so, they have a market that would also be attractive to the Mountain West, but only if the MWC expands to 12 or loses more than 1 school.
UTSA plays in the Alamodome, and only shares their market with the NBA's Spurs. There isn't even a AAA baseball team in the Alamo city. This has got Boise State type potential written all over it. Should be an attractive option to Conference USA should they need to rebuild.
Louisiana Tech has been hoping to get into Conference USA since trouble began in WAC-land last year. Sure, there is some basketball tradition in Rushton, but not much else. At least the Sun Belt is a better geographical fit than the WAC.
Lower Risk
Texas State took the WAC invitation ahead of waiting for the Sun Belt in upgrading their program.
New Mexico State has to be wondering why they ever left the Sun Belt Conference to begin with.
Is there hope?
-Montana and any of a slew of other FCS programs could change their mind about moving conferences and upgrading to the FBS.
-Some Big West programs, like Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara or Pacific could return to the Gridiron and join the WAC as football-only members.
-The NCAA could put a moratorium on FBS conference expansion, except for FCS members upgrading. This could stabilize the WAC as well as other conferences.
The Big 12 could dissolve and leave Iowa State and/or Baylor for the WAC to pick up.
What could kill the WAC?
-If the Big 12 invites Air Force or Boise State. The MWC would probably invite Utah State to take their place.
-If C-USA loses UCF, Houston or SMU and invites UTSA and/or Louisiana Tech as replacements.
-If Idaho is relegated back to the FCS due to attendance.
It would take two of the five to kill football in the WAC.
In review, the demise of Big West Conference football. In 1969, the Big West Conference formed as the PCAA with 7 members. Here is how it when down.
Original 7
San Diego State--Joined the WAC in 1976
Long Beach State--Dropped football after 1991 season
Fresno State--Joined the WAC in 1992
Pacific--Dropped football after 1995 season
San Jose State--Joined the WAC in 1996
UC Santa Barbara--Dropped to D-IAA (FCS) in 1971 and dropped football after 1989. Rejoined as a non-football school in 1975
CS Los Angeles--Stopped sponsoring sports after 1971
CS Fullerton--Joined in 1975 dropped football after 1992 season
UC Irvine joined as a non-football School in 1977
Utah State--Joined in 1978 and stayed until 2000
UNLV--Joined in 1982, joined WAC in 1996
New Mexico State--Joined in 1984 and stayed until 2000
Nevada--Joined in 1992 and joined WAC in 2000
Louisiana Layfayete*--Joined in 1993 Joined Sun Belt in 1996
Northern Illinois*--Joined in 1993 joined MAC in 1996
Arkansas State*--Joined in 1993 joined ?Sun Belt in 1996 rejoined in 1999 Stayed until 2000.
Louisiana Tech*--Joined in 1993 joined Sun Belt in 1996
Cal Poly--Joined in 1996 but kept football program at (D-IAA) FCS level.
Idaho--Joined in 1996 and stayed until 2000
North Texas--Joined in 1996 stayed until 2000
Boise State--Joined in 1996 joined WAC in 2001. It was the loss of Boise State that caused the Big West to stop sponsoring football.
After Football
CS Northridge--Joined in 2001 after dropping football
UC Riverside--Joined in 2001
UC Davis--Joined in 2007
Hawaii--Will join in 2012, but the football Warriors will be part of the MWC.
*Football-only member
After the 2000 season when Boise State was invited to join the WAC; Utah State, New Mexico State and Idaho joined the Sun Belt Conference for football only and later joined the WAC. North Texas and Arkansas State joined the Sun Belt Conference for all sports.
Similarities between the WAC and Big West
-All original WAC members are gone. All original Big West members had either moved on or dropped football by 1995.
-Big West became geographically dispersed. Travel costs overwhelmed many.
-Big West was divided between football-only members, full sports members, members with football programs in the lower division and non-football members. There was a loss of unity. The non-football members eventually won out.
-It was the loss of Boise State that put WAC football on life support. It was the loss of Boise State that put an end to Big West football. Another Boise State move could be the domino that ends WAC football.
Finally,
I believe that with the addition of Devner, Seattle and Texas Arlington, and with CS Bakersfield and Utah Valley still interested, the Western Athletic Conference, like the Big West, will continue as a non-football conference.
Monday, August 15, 2011
The SEC did not make a move, yet. Do other conferences still react?
The SEC did not make a move to invite Texas A&M at this time. The question for other conferences is, do we make a preemptive expansion move ourselves? It seems that nobody outside of the MAC has been willing to expand beyond 12 at this time. 12 is a good number because of the length of the college football season, 12 games. At 12, any team will play 8 or 9 conference games, 5 divisional games and 3 or 4 non-divisional conference games. This allows for 3 or 4 non conference games. The NCAA does not want to expand the college football games and allow for a 13th game unless visiting Alaska, Hawaii or Puerto Rico. Since there is not a university in Alaska or Puerto Rico that sponsors football, and only one college football university in Hawaii, not many take advantage of this option. Many schools figure a 13th game increases the potential for injury, reduces the opportunity for recruiting during a week off and takes athletes away from class to often.
If the SEC is unwilling to expand beyond 12, perhaps another conference will. Having 14 conference members, breaking into divisions of 7 each is not a difficult thing to schedule. It means 6 intra-divisional games, and 3 non-divisional games and 3 non-conference games. Possibly 1 of the non-divisional conference games will be an opponent from the other division a team plays every season.
Based upon my research, here are the expansion possibilities for every FBS conference. Keep in mind, this is only my speculation.
ACC--There are plenty of options for the ACC to expand to 16. However, the conference is still reeling from the last expansion controversy, where they added Boston College instead of West Virginia. Certainly, if the ACC expands beyond 12, they will have to pay attention to the rivalries and expand in a manner that will let West Virgina and Virginia Tech play every season. They will need to allow other rivalries to flourish as well.
Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/759477-should-the-acc-consider-becoming-the-nations-first-16-team-super-conference
Big 12--Now that Texas A&M is staying, the question for the Big 12 is how to keep the Aggies. There is a revenue distribution problem in the Big 12. The question is how to more evenly distribute the kitty. Perhaps the conference can negotiate a monster TV deal by expanding back to 12. Will that bring stability back to the conference? If so, who should they bring into the fold? Brigham Young and Notre Dame, with their independent TV deals may not be the best idea if the goal is to bring stability and more even revenue to the conference. Does the conference then add Memphis, with it's strong Basketball program and bowl, but a weak football program make sense? How about stealing Arizona and Arizona State from the PAC-12? Certainly there are no easy answers for the Big 12 at this point.
Big East--This is a conference that needs to be proactive. They showed a defensive move when they recently added TCU. In doing so, they both strengthen their football and weaken their biggest threat to keeping their BCS automatic qualification status. The next logical step is to spin off the basketball-only schools into a new conference and add three more good football schools to expand the football Big East to 12. 16 is too big of a step for the Big East at this time.
Big 10--The Big 10 has been rumored for a long time to be expanding to 16. But probably will not be the first unless Notre Dame joins.
Conference USA--This is another conference that is threatened at this point. They were left untouched by the last round of conference realignment. They will not be so lucky this time. The Big East short list for expansion includes several Conference USA schools. Does it make sense to expand beyond 12 before this happens? C-USA does not seem to want this.
Mid American--The conference is expanding to 14 next year with the addition of U-Mass. They may be ready to accept any other current FCS program in the midwest or northeast region that is willing to move up.
Mountain West--They decided not to expand to 12 in January. Does the Texas A&M situation and the possibility that the Big 12 will return to 12 make them change their mind?
PAC-12--The Big 12 looks volatile. Is now the time to make another offer to Texas and others and expand to 16?
SEC--The SEC is not expanding to 16, yet. But they have set up the criteria in doing so.
WAC--The WAC would expand if they could find schools willing to join.
Sun Belt--The conference is expanding to 10 next year with the addition of South Alabama. They are waiting for Appalachian State and Georgia Southern, but perhaps those schools will end up in Conference USA instead.
If the SEC is unwilling to expand beyond 12, perhaps another conference will. Having 14 conference members, breaking into divisions of 7 each is not a difficult thing to schedule. It means 6 intra-divisional games, and 3 non-divisional games and 3 non-conference games. Possibly 1 of the non-divisional conference games will be an opponent from the other division a team plays every season.
Based upon my research, here are the expansion possibilities for every FBS conference. Keep in mind, this is only my speculation.
ACC--There are plenty of options for the ACC to expand to 16. However, the conference is still reeling from the last expansion controversy, where they added Boston College instead of West Virginia. Certainly, if the ACC expands beyond 12, they will have to pay attention to the rivalries and expand in a manner that will let West Virgina and Virginia Tech play every season. They will need to allow other rivalries to flourish as well.
Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/759477-should-the-acc-consider-becoming-the-nations-first-16-team-super-conference
Big 12--Now that Texas A&M is staying, the question for the Big 12 is how to keep the Aggies. There is a revenue distribution problem in the Big 12. The question is how to more evenly distribute the kitty. Perhaps the conference can negotiate a monster TV deal by expanding back to 12. Will that bring stability back to the conference? If so, who should they bring into the fold? Brigham Young and Notre Dame, with their independent TV deals may not be the best idea if the goal is to bring stability and more even revenue to the conference. Does the conference then add Memphis, with it's strong Basketball program and bowl, but a weak football program make sense? How about stealing Arizona and Arizona State from the PAC-12? Certainly there are no easy answers for the Big 12 at this point.
Big East--This is a conference that needs to be proactive. They showed a defensive move when they recently added TCU. In doing so, they both strengthen their football and weaken their biggest threat to keeping their BCS automatic qualification status. The next logical step is to spin off the basketball-only schools into a new conference and add three more good football schools to expand the football Big East to 12. 16 is too big of a step for the Big East at this time.
Big 10--The Big 10 has been rumored for a long time to be expanding to 16. But probably will not be the first unless Notre Dame joins.
Conference USA--This is another conference that is threatened at this point. They were left untouched by the last round of conference realignment. They will not be so lucky this time. The Big East short list for expansion includes several Conference USA schools. Does it make sense to expand beyond 12 before this happens? C-USA does not seem to want this.
Mid American--The conference is expanding to 14 next year with the addition of U-Mass. They may be ready to accept any other current FCS program in the midwest or northeast region that is willing to move up.
Mountain West--They decided not to expand to 12 in January. Does the Texas A&M situation and the possibility that the Big 12 will return to 12 make them change their mind?
PAC-12--The Big 12 looks volatile. Is now the time to make another offer to Texas and others and expand to 16?
SEC--The SEC is not expanding to 16, yet. But they have set up the criteria in doing so.
WAC--The WAC would expand if they could find schools willing to join.
Sun Belt--The conference is expanding to 10 next year with the addition of South Alabama. They are waiting for Appalachian State and Georgia Southern, but perhaps those schools will end up in Conference USA instead.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
No SEC expansion for now.
As of 7:00 PM Eastern on August 14, the SEC has decided against expansion. According to ESPN, the door has been left open. For now, the SEC presidents are satisfied with the current institutional alignment.
Possible Destinations of the Big 12 Schools should the conference break up.
Texas A&M--SEC
Texas--PAC 12 or New Conference
Texas Tech--PAC 12, Mountain West or New Conference
Oklahoma--PAC 12, SEC or New Conference
Oklahoma State--PAC 12, SEC or New Conference
Kansas--Big East, Big 10, ACC, Mountain West or New Conference
Kansas State--Big East, ACC, Mountain West or New Conference
Missouri--SEC, ACC, Big 10, Mountain West or New Conference
Baylor--Conference USA, Mountain West, WAC or New Conference
Iowa State--Mountain West, WAC, or New Conference
Conference Expansion Short List for Every Conference as of August 14, 2011
SEC
Texas A&M
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Miami
Missouri
ACC
Rutgers
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Syracuse
Big East
Central Florida
SMU
Houston
East Carolina
Big 10
Notre Dame
Missouri
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Rutgers
PAC-12
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
San Diego State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Big 12
Brigham Young
Air Force
TCU
SMU
Houston
Louisville
Memphis
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Boise State
Conference USA
Baylor
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
UTSA
Texas State
New Mexico State
Mountain West
Kansas State
Utah State
San Jose State
Idaho
New Mexico State
Montana
WAC
Iowa State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Montana
Montana State
Lamar
Sam Houston State
Portland State
Sacramento State
North Dakota State
Any Big West Conference school that brings back football
Sun Belt
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Louisiana Tech
Texas State
UTSA
New Mexico State
MAC
Any north-eastern or mid-west FCS school ready to move up.
Texas A&M
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Miami
Missouri
ACC
Rutgers
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Syracuse
Big East
Central Florida
SMU
Houston
East Carolina
Big 10
Notre Dame
Missouri
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Rutgers
PAC-12
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
San Diego State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Big 12
Brigham Young
Air Force
TCU
SMU
Houston
Louisville
Memphis
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Boise State
Conference USA
Baylor
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
UTSA
Texas State
New Mexico State
Mountain West
Kansas State
Utah State
San Jose State
Idaho
New Mexico State
Montana
WAC
Iowa State
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Montana
Montana State
Lamar
Sam Houston State
Portland State
Sacramento State
North Dakota State
Any Big West Conference school that brings back football
Sun Belt
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Louisiana Tech
Texas State
UTSA
New Mexico State
MAC
Any north-eastern or mid-west FCS school ready to move up.
Saving the WAC...The Potential Impact of Texas A&M.
Here we go again, more conference re-alignment is coming. Texas A&M is leaving the Big 12 for the SEC and the other dominoes will fall. In WAC-land, this could be the end, or this could be a new beginning.
It may be too early to speculate how the dominoes will fall. But there are basically two questions that need to be answered before we know for certain how this latest conference movement will effect the WAC and the other smaller conferences. The first question is: Who, if anyone will join Texas A&M in the SEC? The second question is, What will Texas and Oklahoma do in response?
There are reports that the SEC may not add anyone else, and may try life as a 13-team conference. Florida State and Missouri are the two linked to TAMU's defection. I do not see Missouri going to the SEC with the Aggies, however. If the SEC goes to 14 schools, I foresee an ACC team going in with them. The reason is that the SEC will chose another team that will allow them to keep their current division alignment, which points to them raiding the ACC. The the SEC goes to 16, then Missouri is in the mix. And if that happens, all Hell will break loose in college football and the era of the "Super Conference" will begin.
The most likely scenario...
If the SEC goes to 14 schools, and raids the ACC, the I expect that the ACC will follow suit and also expand to 14. Which means that they will add 3 schools. I expect that Rutgers, being close to New York City, is at the top of their list. My hunch is that Pittsburgh and West Virginia, are the other schools on their short list. My suspicion is that the ACC will still not look past the Big East for replacements, although Syracuse, Cincinnati, Kansas and Kansas State may also be on the radar.
The next question is, what does Texas and Oklahoma do in response. If the SEC does expand to 16, The ACC, Big 10 and Pac 12 will follow. The Big 12 would be absorbed into other conferences. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would be in the PAC 12. Missouri could end up in the Big 10 instead of the SEC. Kansas could then join the SEC with TAMU. Kansas State could end up in the Mountain West. Baylor could end up in Conference USA. And good news for the WAC? Iowa State. Iowa State could lure Fargo-based North Dakota State, their 200,000 person metro and their 25,000 seat Fargodome into the FBS. Iowa State could lure Montana and Montana state to the WAC. That would save the conference.
Texas and Oklahoma could keep the Big 12 together. The Big 12 could stand pat at 9. They could invite independent BYU into the conference and remain at 10. They could also add Houston and TCU and return to 12. Air Force, SMU, Rice, Memphis and Louisville are also on the Big 12 short list. That final scenario would be the end of the WAC. The reason...The Big East is likely to raid Conference USA for replacements.
Conference USA was untouched by the last round of conference realignment. That will not be the case this time. The Big East is likely to lose at least one school this time. It will be easy for them to add Central Florida to replace Rutgers or whoever else goes. But if they lose Rutgers, TCU and possibly Pittsburgh, West Virginia or even Syracuse, the Conference USA will be hurting.
The WAC will likely not be impacted if Conference USA is looking for only one replacement. Middle Tennessee is likely at the top of their list. North Texas, and other Sun Belt schools might be higher on their list than anyone in the WAC. Perhaps even Appalachian State or Georgia Southern may move up to the FBS if Conference USA came calling and may get a call from C-USA before anyone from the WAC. But if C-USA is looking for 4 schools, then Louisiana Tech, UTSA, Texas State or even New Mexico State may take a better geographical fit and a better TV deal and dump the WAC.
The WAC is down to 7 football schools and is having trouble finding more. A loss of two more football schools and the WAC doomed to be, at best, a basketball-only conference. The remaining schools would have to hope that the Mountain West Conference and C-USA ready to join super conference era as well.
It may be too early to speculate how the dominoes will fall. But there are basically two questions that need to be answered before we know for certain how this latest conference movement will effect the WAC and the other smaller conferences. The first question is: Who, if anyone will join Texas A&M in the SEC? The second question is, What will Texas and Oklahoma do in response?
There are reports that the SEC may not add anyone else, and may try life as a 13-team conference. Florida State and Missouri are the two linked to TAMU's defection. I do not see Missouri going to the SEC with the Aggies, however. If the SEC goes to 14 schools, I foresee an ACC team going in with them. The reason is that the SEC will chose another team that will allow them to keep their current division alignment, which points to them raiding the ACC. The the SEC goes to 16, then Missouri is in the mix. And if that happens, all Hell will break loose in college football and the era of the "Super Conference" will begin.
The most likely scenario...
If the SEC goes to 14 schools, and raids the ACC, the I expect that the ACC will follow suit and also expand to 14. Which means that they will add 3 schools. I expect that Rutgers, being close to New York City, is at the top of their list. My hunch is that Pittsburgh and West Virginia, are the other schools on their short list. My suspicion is that the ACC will still not look past the Big East for replacements, although Syracuse, Cincinnati, Kansas and Kansas State may also be on the radar.
The next question is, what does Texas and Oklahoma do in response. If the SEC does expand to 16, The ACC, Big 10 and Pac 12 will follow. The Big 12 would be absorbed into other conferences. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would be in the PAC 12. Missouri could end up in the Big 10 instead of the SEC. Kansas could then join the SEC with TAMU. Kansas State could end up in the Mountain West. Baylor could end up in Conference USA. And good news for the WAC? Iowa State. Iowa State could lure Fargo-based North Dakota State, their 200,000 person metro and their 25,000 seat Fargodome into the FBS. Iowa State could lure Montana and Montana state to the WAC. That would save the conference.
Texas and Oklahoma could keep the Big 12 together. The Big 12 could stand pat at 9. They could invite independent BYU into the conference and remain at 10. They could also add Houston and TCU and return to 12. Air Force, SMU, Rice, Memphis and Louisville are also on the Big 12 short list. That final scenario would be the end of the WAC. The reason...The Big East is likely to raid Conference USA for replacements.
Conference USA was untouched by the last round of conference realignment. That will not be the case this time. The Big East is likely to lose at least one school this time. It will be easy for them to add Central Florida to replace Rutgers or whoever else goes. But if they lose Rutgers, TCU and possibly Pittsburgh, West Virginia or even Syracuse, the Conference USA will be hurting.
The WAC will likely not be impacted if Conference USA is looking for only one replacement. Middle Tennessee is likely at the top of their list. North Texas, and other Sun Belt schools might be higher on their list than anyone in the WAC. Perhaps even Appalachian State or Georgia Southern may move up to the FBS if Conference USA came calling and may get a call from C-USA before anyone from the WAC. But if C-USA is looking for 4 schools, then Louisiana Tech, UTSA, Texas State or even New Mexico State may take a better geographical fit and a better TV deal and dump the WAC.
The WAC is down to 7 football schools and is having trouble finding more. A loss of two more football schools and the WAC doomed to be, at best, a basketball-only conference. The remaining schools would have to hope that the Mountain West Conference and C-USA ready to join super conference era as well.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Big 12 Update for August 12. Which way will the ball bounce.
The Texas Legislative Committee responsible for intercollegiate athletics is meeting on Tuesday to, rumor has it, consider the question of Texas A&M leaving for the SEC. The Big 12 is working to remain a 10-team conference and will likely invite independent BYU. Big 12 commissioner, Don Bebee said in a statement about TAMU, in effect, "don't let the door hit your butt on the way out." Therefore, the end of BYU's independence era may be in sight before it really kicks off.
The question is whether it is true that Florida State joins with Texas A&M, or if the SEC remains at 13. If Florida State joins the SEC, what will the ACC do? Add 1 school to remain at 12, or will they follow suit and expand to 14?
Then how does the Big East respond?
Also breaking, the PAC-12 may take a look at Texas, according to Dennis Dodd at CBS. The problem, however, is that Oklahoma will not go without OK State. Would the PAC-12 become 13? They certainly would not consider either Baylor, BYU or TCU to come in with Texas because they want public school. Texas Tech does not offer the PAC-12 much. Maybe Texas and San Diego State? Can't see that either.
This will trickle down to the "mid-major" conferences somehow, and will even have an effect at the FCS level. The next few days will be revealing. Because the Big East will likely raid Conference USA if they need replacements. The WAC and Mountain West will be effected as well.
Sources:
http://eye-on-collegefootball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/24156338/31277404
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/?eref=sinav&sct=hp_nv_a
The question is whether it is true that Florida State joins with Texas A&M, or if the SEC remains at 13. If Florida State joins the SEC, what will the ACC do? Add 1 school to remain at 12, or will they follow suit and expand to 14?
Then how does the Big East respond?
Also breaking, the PAC-12 may take a look at Texas, according to Dennis Dodd at CBS. The problem, however, is that Oklahoma will not go without OK State. Would the PAC-12 become 13? They certainly would not consider either Baylor, BYU or TCU to come in with Texas because they want public school. Texas Tech does not offer the PAC-12 much. Maybe Texas and San Diego State? Can't see that either.
This will trickle down to the "mid-major" conferences somehow, and will even have an effect at the FCS level. The next few days will be revealing. Because the Big East will likely raid Conference USA if they need replacements. The WAC and Mountain West will be effected as well.
Sources:
http://eye-on-collegefootball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/24156338/31277404
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/?eref=sinav&sct=hp_nv_a
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Big 12 Survival Is Realistic.
One columnist from the Kansas City Star thinks that the Big 12 will survive without Texas A&M as a 9 team conference.
http://www.kansascity.com/2011/08/10/3069496/could-big-12-survive-more-shrinkage.html
Reasons...
Texas probably will not become independent
Oklahoma could begin their own TV network
Plenty of Texas fans in Houston
Unsure if anyone would leave with Texas A&M
-Missouri has sights on Big 10
-Oklahoma and Oklahoma State wish to stay together
-Same for Kansas and Kansas State (Kansas school fit in with the Basketball Big East, but are concerned about the travel costs.)
-Texas Tech and Baylor are not on the SEC radar
-Iowa State is outside of the SEC footprint
If only Texas A&M leaves, the Big 12 can invite BYU without a partner and remain at 10.
In other words...Texas A&M joins the SEC West, Georgia Tech or Clemson joins the SEC East. The ACC takes West Virginia, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati or Syracuse. The Big East takes Central Florida, SMU or Houston. Conference USA takes Louisiana Tech and the WAC...still can't get more football schools.
http://www.kansascity.com/2011/08/10/3069496/could-big-12-survive-more-shrinkage.html
Reasons...
Texas probably will not become independent
Oklahoma could begin their own TV network
Plenty of Texas fans in Houston
Unsure if anyone would leave with Texas A&M
-Missouri has sights on Big 10
-Oklahoma and Oklahoma State wish to stay together
-Same for Kansas and Kansas State (Kansas school fit in with the Basketball Big East, but are concerned about the travel costs.)
-Texas Tech and Baylor are not on the SEC radar
-Iowa State is outside of the SEC footprint
If only Texas A&M leaves, the Big 12 can invite BYU without a partner and remain at 10.
In other words...Texas A&M joins the SEC West, Georgia Tech or Clemson joins the SEC East. The ACC takes West Virginia, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati or Syracuse. The Big East takes Central Florida, SMU or Houston. Conference USA takes Louisiana Tech and the WAC...still can't get more football schools.
Monday, August 8, 2011
First Look at the 2011 FCS Playoffs.
There are no reliable computer rankings at this point in the season, so I relied solely on the FCS Consolidated Rankings. When Computer rankings are available, I will include them in the prediction as well. Also, the rules state that teams from the same conference can not meet in the first or second round, so the seeding has to be adjusted from the rankings. For example, Montana was seeding down to avoid playing Montana State in the 2nd round. James Madison is out because a scenario can not be worked out to avoid playing another CAA school in the second round. McNeese State makes the field instead.
Automatic Bids...
Big Sky--Eastern Washington
Big South--Liberty
Colonial--William and Mary
MEAC--Bethune Cookman
MVFC--Northern Iowa
NEAC--Central Connecticut State
OVC--Jacksonville State
Patriot--Lehigh
Southland--Central Arkansas
SoCon--Appalachian State
Seedings
1. EASTERN WASHINGTON Eagles (Big Sky)
2. APPALACHIAN STATE Mountaineers (SoCon)
3. Georgia Southern Eagles (SoCon)
4. WILLIAM AND MARY Tribe (CAA)
5. Delaware Blue Hens (CAA)
6. Montana State Bobcats (Big Sky)
7. NORTHERN IOWA Panthers (MVFC)
8. Wofford Terriers (SoCon)
9. JACKSONVILLE STATE Gamecocks (OVC)
10. New Hampshire Wildcats (CAA)
11. LEHIGH Mountain Hawks (Patriot)
12. Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky)
13. North Dakota State Bison (MVFC)
14. CENTRAL ARKANSAS Bears (Southland)
15. Villanova Wildcats (CAA)
16. Southern Illinois Salukis (MVFC)
17. McNeese State Cowboys (Southland)
18. LIBERTY Flames (Big South)
19. BETHUNE-COOKMAN Wildcats (MEAC)
20. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE Blue Devils (NEAC)
First Round
Game 1
20. Central Connecticut State at 13. North Dakota State
Game 2
19. Bethune-Cookman at 14. Central Arkansas
Game 3
18. Liberty at 15. Villanova
Game 4
17. McNeese State at 16. Southern Illinois
Second Round
Game 4 winner at 1. Eastern Washington
9. Jacksonville State at 8. Wofford
Game 1 winner at 4. William and Mary
12. Montana at 5. Delaware
Game 2 winner at 3. Georgia Southern
11. Lehigh at 6. Montana State
Game 3 winner at 2. Appalachian State
10. New Hampshire at 7. Northern Iowa
Last 4 in...
North Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Villanova, McNeese State
First 4 out...
James Madison, Richmond, Sacramento State, Stephen F. Austin
Next 4 out...
Chattanooga, Murray State, South Carolina State, Massachusetts
Also Lurking
Western Illinois, Southern Utah, Stony Brook, Southeast Missouri, Northwestern State, Eastern Kentucky, Florida A&M, Sam Houston State
The season is young. Let's play the games and see how this works out.
Automatic Bids...
Big Sky--Eastern Washington
Big South--Liberty
Colonial--William and Mary
MEAC--Bethune Cookman
MVFC--Northern Iowa
NEAC--Central Connecticut State
OVC--Jacksonville State
Patriot--Lehigh
Southland--Central Arkansas
SoCon--Appalachian State
Seedings
1. EASTERN WASHINGTON Eagles (Big Sky)
2. APPALACHIAN STATE Mountaineers (SoCon)
3. Georgia Southern Eagles (SoCon)
4. WILLIAM AND MARY Tribe (CAA)
5. Delaware Blue Hens (CAA)
6. Montana State Bobcats (Big Sky)
7. NORTHERN IOWA Panthers (MVFC)
8. Wofford Terriers (SoCon)
9. JACKSONVILLE STATE Gamecocks (OVC)
10. New Hampshire Wildcats (CAA)
11. LEHIGH Mountain Hawks (Patriot)
12. Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky)
13. North Dakota State Bison (MVFC)
14. CENTRAL ARKANSAS Bears (Southland)
15. Villanova Wildcats (CAA)
16. Southern Illinois Salukis (MVFC)
17. McNeese State Cowboys (Southland)
18. LIBERTY Flames (Big South)
19. BETHUNE-COOKMAN Wildcats (MEAC)
20. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE Blue Devils (NEAC)
First Round
Game 1
20. Central Connecticut State at 13. North Dakota State
Game 2
19. Bethune-Cookman at 14. Central Arkansas
Game 3
18. Liberty at 15. Villanova
Game 4
17. McNeese State at 16. Southern Illinois
Second Round
Game 4 winner at 1. Eastern Washington
9. Jacksonville State at 8. Wofford
Game 1 winner at 4. William and Mary
12. Montana at 5. Delaware
Game 2 winner at 3. Georgia Southern
11. Lehigh at 6. Montana State
Game 3 winner at 2. Appalachian State
10. New Hampshire at 7. Northern Iowa
Last 4 in...
North Dakota State, Southern Illinois, Villanova, McNeese State
First 4 out...
James Madison, Richmond, Sacramento State, Stephen F. Austin
Next 4 out...
Chattanooga, Murray State, South Carolina State, Massachusetts
Also Lurking
Western Illinois, Southern Utah, Stony Brook, Southeast Missouri, Northwestern State, Eastern Kentucky, Florida A&M, Sam Houston State
The season is young. Let's play the games and see how this works out.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Saving the WAC...Another Big 12 Breakup...Sort-of Possibility
Again, I begin with a disclaimer. This theory is mine and mine alone...the source is my own brain.
To begin with, I have read reports that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State want to stay in the same conference. Which means that if Texas A&M leaves for the SEC, Oklahoma will not go with them, unless the SEC tries to go to 16 members. If that happens, then college sports as we know it is over and the era of the Super Conference will begin. But if they stick to 14, and Kansas or Missouri goes with TAMU to the SEC and Texas becomes independent, the Oklahoma schools will push for a new BCS-level conference if they can not wrangle and invite to the PAC-12 or save the Big 12.
Here is my theory for an Oklahoma-centric 12-team conference that would be BCS-worthy...meaning that there would only be room for 2 or 3 football weaklings. The football weaklings would have to be strong in Basketball and be in a large or rapidly growing metro and have a bowl game to make them worthy of inclusion.
South Division
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Iowa State
West Division
Air Force
Boise State
Brigham Young
Fresno State
UNLV
Texas Tech
The East division is the remainder of the Big 12, except Texas Tech ends up in the west division. Here is the justification for the other 5 members.
Air Force. The Colorado Springs market, although not Denver, represents a vibrant and growing community. The program has a level of credibility that you do not have with any other program.
BYU has been rumored to be on the verge of the Big 12 ever since Colorado and Nebraska left. They have their own TV network and deal with ESPN and they don't play games on Sunday. Since the BYU network also has religious and education programs, it is not a threatening to the conference as the all-sports Longhorn network is.
Boise State has been the underdog story of the last decade. Academically, they are still a little weak, but they do bring a growing city into the fold.
Fresno State is on the list because of their market size. But they are a little outside the footprint. The best bet for the Big 12 in this slot is TCU. But Fresno is a good alternative.
UNLV is here for two reasons. They have a strong basketball program, which will ensure a large number of NCAA bids for the conference. They also bring a bowl game to the fold.
In this scenario, you have 7-8 bowl teams and at least 5 NCAA bids every season.
Other alternatives are Houston, Rice, SMU and UTEP.
How will this effect the WAC? The Mountain West, losing 4 full-time programs can add 6 WAC members. The WAC could then become either a FCS league, as let's face it, the Big Sky is a little hyper-expanded at this time, or a basketball-only league. Or perhaps the MWC can fold and get everyone out of the mtn business forever. Or, another scenario is that the Big West can bring back football.
The New MWC or WAC after this...
East
Colorado State
Wyoming
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTSA
Texas State
Louisiana Tech
West
Nevada
Idaho
Utah State
San Jose State
San Diego State
Hawaii (Football Only)
New Basketball-only league
Denver
UTA
Seattle
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
Texas Pan American
Houston Baptist
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
To begin with, I have read reports that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State want to stay in the same conference. Which means that if Texas A&M leaves for the SEC, Oklahoma will not go with them, unless the SEC tries to go to 16 members. If that happens, then college sports as we know it is over and the era of the Super Conference will begin. But if they stick to 14, and Kansas or Missouri goes with TAMU to the SEC and Texas becomes independent, the Oklahoma schools will push for a new BCS-level conference if they can not wrangle and invite to the PAC-12 or save the Big 12.
Here is my theory for an Oklahoma-centric 12-team conference that would be BCS-worthy...meaning that there would only be room for 2 or 3 football weaklings. The football weaklings would have to be strong in Basketball and be in a large or rapidly growing metro and have a bowl game to make them worthy of inclusion.
South Division
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Iowa State
West Division
Air Force
Boise State
Brigham Young
Fresno State
UNLV
Texas Tech
The East division is the remainder of the Big 12, except Texas Tech ends up in the west division. Here is the justification for the other 5 members.
Air Force. The Colorado Springs market, although not Denver, represents a vibrant and growing community. The program has a level of credibility that you do not have with any other program.
BYU has been rumored to be on the verge of the Big 12 ever since Colorado and Nebraska left. They have their own TV network and deal with ESPN and they don't play games on Sunday. Since the BYU network also has religious and education programs, it is not a threatening to the conference as the all-sports Longhorn network is.
Boise State has been the underdog story of the last decade. Academically, they are still a little weak, but they do bring a growing city into the fold.
Fresno State is on the list because of their market size. But they are a little outside the footprint. The best bet for the Big 12 in this slot is TCU. But Fresno is a good alternative.
UNLV is here for two reasons. They have a strong basketball program, which will ensure a large number of NCAA bids for the conference. They also bring a bowl game to the fold.
In this scenario, you have 7-8 bowl teams and at least 5 NCAA bids every season.
Other alternatives are Houston, Rice, SMU and UTEP.
How will this effect the WAC? The Mountain West, losing 4 full-time programs can add 6 WAC members. The WAC could then become either a FCS league, as let's face it, the Big Sky is a little hyper-expanded at this time, or a basketball-only league. Or perhaps the MWC can fold and get everyone out of the mtn business forever. Or, another scenario is that the Big West can bring back football.
The New MWC or WAC after this...
East
Colorado State
Wyoming
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTSA
Texas State
Louisiana Tech
West
Nevada
Idaho
Utah State
San Jose State
San Diego State
Hawaii (Football Only)
New Basketball-only league
Denver
UTA
Seattle
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
Texas Pan American
Houston Baptist
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
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