Football is Back in the WAC

As reported on Twitter earlier today, the WAC is bringing back football.  Members Dixie State and Tarleton State, who play football will be joined by Southern Utah, Sam Houston State, Lamar, Abilene Christian and Stephen F. Austin.  This should be final and official in the next couple of weeks.

It is unclear whether or not the four new schools from Texas will compete in the WAC for all sports or just football.  Currently, the WAC is at 9 members.  The addition will make the conference at 14 with 7 who play football.  (Technically 8, with New Mexico State competing as a FBS Independent.)

This may sound like a bad move for the Big Sky Conference, at first.  The loss of SUU will put the Big Sky at 10 for all sports and 12 for football with Cal Poly and UC Davis as non-football program.  It will put the Southland Conference from 13 members to 9, 7 who play football with 2 non-football schools.  Both the Big Sky Conference and Southland Conference have had to allow members to schedule conference opponents as non-conference games to save on travel costs.  This will help provide some non-conference scheduling opportunities for both.  Dixie and Tarleton State will compete as FCS independents for 2021 in football.  Currently, the Big Sky Conference is the only FCS conference with a footprint west of the Rockies.

Some other issues that these conference have run into is that only one schools gets and automatic bid to the NCAA FCS playoff.  At the FCS level, they do not have conference championship games like you see at the FBS level.  Therefore, conferences do not break into divisions.  Because of the cost of travel, some schools in both conferences have scheduled two games against FBS competition while others have scheduled two games against Division II (or lower as in Division II or NAIA) opponents.

For Dixie and Southern Utah, a new rivalry will form as the two schools are about 55 miles apart and are in neighboring counties.  Southwestern Utah is one of the fastest growing regions in the United States.  It would be hard to imagine Southern Utah not continuing their rivalry with Weber State and Northern Arizona, even though they will not be in the same conference.

All things considered, this is a win/win for all parties involved.

(After realignment)

Big Sky Conference 

Eastern Washington (Cheney, WA)
Idaho (Moscow, ID)
Idaho State (Pocatello, ID)
Montana (Missoula, MT)
Montana State (Bozeman, MT)
Northern Arizona (Flagstaff, AZ)
Northern Colorado (Geeley, CO)
Portland State (Portland, OR)
Sacramento State (Sacramento, CA)
Weber State (Ogden, UT)

Football Only

California Davis (Davis, CA)
California Polytechnic (San Louis Obispo, CA)

UC Davis and Cal Poly compete in the Big West Conference in Basketball and Olympic sports.  The only other Big West Conference school that plays football is Hawaii, whose football program competes in the Mountain West Conference.

Southland Conference

Central Arkansas (Conway, AR)
McNeese State (Lake Charles, LA)
Nichols State (Thibodaux, LA)
University of New Orleans (New Orleans, LA)
Northwestern State (Natchitoches, LA) 
Southeastern Louisiana (Hammond, LA)
Texas A&M Corpus Christi (Corpus Christi, TX)

Non Football Schools 

Houston Baptist (Houston, TX)
Incarnate Word (San Antonio, TX)

Western Athletic Conference

Abilene Christian (Abilene, TX)
Dixie State (St. George, UT)
Lamar (Beaumont, TX)
Sam Houston State (Huntsville, TX) 
Stephen F. Austin State (Nacadoches, TX)
Southern Utah (Cedar City, UT)
Tarleton State (Tarleton, TX)

Football School, but competes as an FBS Independent

New Mexico State (Las Cruces, NM)

Non Football Schools

California Baptist (Riverside, CA)
Chicago State (Chicago, IL)
Grand Canyon (Phoenix, AZ)
Seattle (Seattle, WA)
Texas Rio Grand Valley (Edinburg, TX)
Utah Valley (Orem, UT)

Twitter Report:

https://twitter.com/MattBrownEP/status/1336069811437268993

My Short List to Replace Gary Anderson at Utah State...

The latest news is that Gary Anderson is out as Utah State head football coach.  He could not find the magic he had in his first tenue in Logan.  COVID-19 did not help.  Neither did a flurry of transfers in both directions.  Here is my list of possible replacements

Interim Coach Frank Maile.  This is your chance.  There are five games left in the season.  Turn the Aggies around and get the job.  Consider this an audition.  If he does well, there will not be a further search.

Weber State Head Coach Jay Hill.  The man worked wonders in Ogden.  Can he do the same in Logan?

BYU Assistant Ed Lamb.  Lamb was the head man in Cedar City at Southern Utah and led them to a Big Sky Conference Championship.  He has been the mentor for Kalani Sitake in Provo.  Let's face it, something saved the Sitake era in Provo from being a complete disaster.  Lamb had a lot to do with it.

Utah Assistant Morgan Skalley.  It is not secret that Skalley was the Head Coach in Waiting on the Hill.  Due to the recent Contract Extension for coach Whitt, he may decided he has waited long enough.

The Millers Sold the Jazz--Commentary

For those of you have have been living under a rock the past 24 hours, here is the big news here in Utah.  The Miller family sold the Utah Jazz.  This is why it is big news in the Beehive State.  The Miller Family put the team in a family trust 3 years ago.  The purpose of the trust was the keep the team in Utah...forever.

They feel this was accomplished this goal in selling the team to Ryan Smith, a life-long Utahan and basketball fan.  It will be interesting to see what he does with the team.  Most people are hoping that the quality of play will improve.  It will also show the rest of the basketball world that Utah is a different place than it was 35 years ago.  There are more people here and more money to be made.  It is also a much more diverse place than it used to be.  This should attract higher quality role players.  The kind that would have won Karl Malone and John Stockton a championship.

This may have come as a shock when the news first broke. It makes sense now.  The Millers other businesses have suffered during the pandemic.  Their theaters don't see crowds, and they sell very few cars compared to what they used to sell.  The car business is starting to rebound.  They money will give them liquidity to keep the movie theaters afloat until people feel safe to see movies in theaters again. 

However, this makes me wonder.  If the Miller family can sell the Jazz, any team owner can sell right now.  One thought, or rumor, is the Memphis Grizzlies moving to Seattle.  But other people have called this, to censor it in a more mild form, hogwash.  

The pandemic has hit everyone in the sports world hard.  If it has been unequal, it is because of the businesses outside of sports that the owners are involved in.  For Gail Miller, the pandemic was probably the perfect storm.  Other owners may profit from the pandemic, but only if they are lucky.  Most do not make their finances public.  If you are buying you can't find listings for sports franchises on Craigslist.  These are quite often over-the-fence transactions. We likely won't know who is selling until the news breaks. 

As far a sports franchises moving, there will be different reasons other than a sweetheart stadium deal in the next city.  Public finances are going to be tight and highly debated for the rest of the decade.  Sure, a city may float a sweet new stadium deal, but if it is publicly financed, expect a voter backlash.  Even more so than usual.  Those sweet deals are going to be on the back-burner for a few years.  What I expect instead is for cities to bend over backwards and help cut the red tape and make privately financed venues easier to build.  This will be more true as office buildings become vacant due to home offices become the preferred place for people to work.

I think we will see a few franchise moves as a result of owners selling.  This will be unavoidable.  What may happen will likely be a surprise.  Some might be pleasant.  Some will be no-so-dandy.  The city and fans losing the team will be upset.  The city and fans gaining the team will be pleased.  As difficult as the Great Depression and Second World War were for the sports world, no team moved until 1954 when the St. Louis Browns became the Baltimore Orioles.  I hope that will be the case and that no team will move because of the pandemic.  

Some have said that leagues may offer expansion as a way to raise money.  But we have a name in sports history for leagues that have done this...defunct.  This is what happened to the old North American Soccer League.  Baseball took 15 years after the end of the second world war to warm up to expansion.  Sports leagues should consider expansion because cities outside of the current footprint are growing.  But never for the sole purpose to raise money.  Prospective franchise owners are going to be wary of spending money on a sports franchise before the dust from the pandemic settles.  This is not the panacea that it initially appears to be.  Some leagues may contract as a result of the pandemic, instead of expanding.

There will be a few other things that will happen as a result of 2020.  We know that the NFL team in Washington is changing their name.  In 2021, the baseball team in Cleveland will have a new name as well.  I expect that the Atlanta Braves and Golden State Warriors will get new names...eventually.  I also expect that the Kansas City Chiefs will change their imaging to not reflect Native American imagery and will play in Lamar Hunt Stadium instead of the now named Arrowhead Stadium.  This makes sense to me now. 

Sports will change in other ways that will make sense once we accept the change.  Hopefully we embrace the changes.

Four Weeks Remain...Updated Prediction

Three weeks ago, I had Biden winning 320 electoral votes, with an over/under of 55.  Meaning, anywhere between a vary narrow Trump victory to a Biden landslide.  

Today, I am changing my prediction to 359 for Biden, 179 for Trump, with Biden winning a potential of another 48 electoral votes and Trump perhaps winning another 25.  That would be Biden winning with anywhere between 334 and 407.  Meaning anywhere from a Biden small victory to a Biden landslide.

I know many of my readers will call me a liberal...or most likely worse.  However, I think I am being generous for Trump.  The RCP no-Tossup Map has 374 for Biden and 164 for Trump.  I gave Trump North Carolina.

The reason for this change is the way that Trump behaved once he got the virus.  It is at best negligent and may make him civilly liable.

Biden would be doing better if he had avoided stooping to Trump's level during the debate.  If he had been the adult in the room, he could run the rest of the election from his basement.

I have to ask the question to Donald Trump...do you want to lose an election?  Because this is how you lose an election.  Many people are voting early, indicating a strong desire for change.  A low turnout supports the status quo.  Donald Trump might be able to brag that he won more votes in 2020 than Hillary did in 2016.  That will not carry much weight.

It is likely not going to be a good night for Republicans on election night.  But it will be far from a complete disaster.

This will, however, by no means be a record night.  Although this could be a record night for a Democratic party candidate challenging an incumbent Republican.  Biden will not push 500 electoral votes.  My feeling is that a strong push from a 3rd party candidate like Jo Johansen might push Biden into the mid-400s, but still not quite Reagan's 489 (vs an incumbent) in 1980.

It has been 52 years since a 3rd Party candidate won a single state.  It will be at least another 4.  But if your looking to make money on a bet, bet that Jo Johansen wins at least one state. 

The Dems may win a 1 or 2 seat majority in the Senate.  I predict a minor change in favor of the Democrats in the House.  I still predict that Jim Clyburn will become the first African American Speaker of the House.  Patty Murray is now my prediction to become the Senate Majority Leader.

I am also going to make a prediction for 2024.

It will be Kamala Harris/ Tammy Baldwin vs. Nikki Haley/ Joni Ernst.  That's right, not a single Y Chromosome for the two major parties. We'll see.

What do you think?

My take on the Election of 2020--Mid-September

Generally, when the economy is bad and the nation is in crisis, it is a slam dunk election for the challenger. Historically, America is does not want to change leadership in a crisis.  This is 2020.  If the Democrats were running someone, anyone, younger and more charismatic than Joe Biden, this would be a slam dunk.  However, if the President Trump showed a monicam of leadership, this would be a slam dunk for Trump.  This is why the election is close.  It is an election of futility.

If I was a Republican Strategist, I would at this point, that Trump focus the campaign in states where the senate vote is a tossup...such as Montana, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia while shoring up support in Texas, Arizona and Florida.  Do not worry about the rest of the country.

I would do the same if I were a Biden strategist.  Get double bang for the buck.

I would, however, put the over/under for a Biden victory around 320 Electoral Votes, which is not exactly a landslide.  This could end up as anywhere between a landslide victory for Biden to a narrow victory for Trump.  In other words +/- 55 Electoral Votes.  I do not expect "the Donald", either way, will win the popular vote.

I put the over-under for the senate to be a 50-50 deadlock.  This would mean that the Vice President would hold the deciding vote.

I would put the HOR not to change much, but for Jim Clayburn to become the new house speaker, the first African American to serve in that post.

It is very important to vote on those down-ticket items.  After all, the recent pandemic has proven that the closer the government is to you, the more impact it has on your life.

Things I hope continue after the pandemic has ended

1.  Senior hours at grocery stores

2.  Increased sanitation

3.  Working from home

4.  Online University

5.  A general attitude of kindness

Putting the Coronavirus Numbers in Perspective...Using Sports

This article is a very simple illustration between the regular flu and corona-virus.  Let's shrink the population down to what will fit in a typical NBA arena or MLS stadium, which is usually around 20,000.  Just so you know that I am not making these numbers up, please visit this site.
Source on Seasonal Flu

Also, keep in mind that there are many factors of corona that we do not know yet.  We do not know what lifestyle factors are more likely to lead to death.  We also are not exactly sure how many people the average person with corona will infect.  These number assume a value of 3.

Also, there has been a recent study on coronavirus antibodies that show that it may have spread father than we thought, which also means that the complication rate and death rate are much lower.  This is based upon information we have as of today, April 20, 2020.

The seasonal flu numbers vary from year to year.

These number indicate why social distancing is important.  It also may take longer for these numbers to be realized...perhaps as long as 15-20 days.  A typical virus will not spread like this in real life, because sporting events are usually 2 to 3 hours.  (Please read this up front and do not flame in the comments.)

Regular Seasonal Flu
(Seasonal flu changes from year to year.)

20,000 people at a sports stadium
If 1 person has the flu and everyone remains at the stadium long enough...

10,000 others go home sick, and have flu symptoms (1 sick person infects one other person.  This is how many people need to be exposed before the virus dies out due to herd immunity...or 1-1/(r+1))

Usually everyone who has the flu will have to take time off of their regular schedule...which is one reason why the flu does not spread as easily as other viruses.

200 may need hospitalization

10 people will die

Coronavirus

20,000 people at a sports stadium
If 1 person has the virus and everyone remains at the stadium long enough...

15,000 go home with the virus (1 sick person infects 3 other other persons.  This is how many people need to be exposed before the virus dies out due to herd immunity...or 1-1/(r+1))  For Corona, this may not be as high, or could be higher. This is due to the number of infected people who do not present symptoms.

12,000 will have no symptoms or will have only mild symptoms.  One problem with Corona, there is no way to tell the difference, at this time, between someone who has the virus and showing no symptoms and someone who does not have the virus.

3,000 will have symptoms serious enough to take time off work

2,070 may need hospitalization

450 will die (This may not be as high or could be higher than we currently think it is due to the number of infected people who do not present symptoms)

A far better comparison for COVID-19 may be the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-20, which had similar rates of transmission and death.

How to grade your organization's COVID-19 response

Very simple letter grade for your organization's response to COVID-19.  How is your company organization doing?

F--Do nothing or close your doors

This means that you are going to carry on as if nothing is wrong.  Outside of a few churches that believe that God will protect them, I know of no organization that has done this.

I do know of many organizations that have simply closed their doors and are making plans to go bankrupt once they can go to court.  Since they are making no plans for survival, they would also get an F grade.

D--Business as usual as much as possible without many additional steps other than to move everything online

There are a few organizations that have done this.  Some have moved everything online, but with little concern for the safety of their people.  This includes mental health checks.  Being stuck inside most of the day takes a toll on people, especially during the spring. 

Some organizations have done nothing other than to declare themselves essential, but are carrying on as normal. 

If either of these describes your organization, then give yourself a D grade.

C--Taking steps to ensure employees or members of your organization are safe and changing business activities to ensure safety

Many business have reduced their hours, changed the way they operated to protect their employees.  For paid employees, however, to reach this level, you will have needed to evaluate your benefits package, ensure that employees tests are covered in the benefits package, ensure that employees know and understand that they do not come to work if they are feeling ill.  In other words, not only protect your employees from getting sick, but remove their worries if they do. 

B--C and taking steps to continue to connect with and care for and continue serve the customer in spite of needed restrictions

Your most loyal customers are going to be the ones that will initially lift you after the crisis is over.  They will be the first to return when conditions return to normal.  Do everything you can to remain loyal to them.  Keep in contact with them.  Offer them coupons and discount packages that are valid once business returns to normal.  Thank them for keeping you in business over the years and for their help for keeping your in business after the crisis.  If you do this, you have earned a B grade.

A--B and making plans for growth AFTER the COVID-19 restrictions are lifted and normal activities resume

Benjamin Franklin reportedly said, "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail."  What are your plans after the crisis is over?  How is the world going to be different?  Can you find a new niche in the post-crisis world.  Smart organizations are making these plans.  If you are, give yourself an A.

Six Ways the Coronavirus Pandemic Could End

1.  Quick herd immunity.  The quickest way this could end is that many more people have been exposed to the disease than previously thought.  In other words, more people than previously thought had the disease, had no symptoms or minor symptoms and have recovered.  People who fit into this category would have needed to have been exposed before social distancing guidelines were in place.  This means that we will quickly develop herd immunity to the disease and be able to return to our normal lives very soon, perhaps by the middle of May.

This is possible because we did not have a lot of testing available to us, and in some areas we still not not of testing in place.

If this happens, you would see a very, very sharp decrease after the disease peaks in mid-April.  In other words, the disease peaks in a couple of weeks, and then the number of new cases is next to nothing very quickly.  We will not know until testing for antibodies in the blood stream becomes widely available.

2.  An effective, early-intervention treatment.  Right now, this looks like the most realistic way the pandemic will end soon.

Malaria drugs show promise as being this kind of treatment.  If administered early enough, people can convalesce at home.  As the treatment becomes more available, and the disease becomes less deadly, lives can return to normal.  It is not yet a certainty that these drugs will work, but it looks promising.

3.  The virus dies out, or becomes greatly reduced, as weather in the northern hemisphere moves into Spring and Summer.  If this happens, we will need to worry about a bounce back this coming fall and winter.  However, we will be better prepared for the bounce back.  The interruption in life will become less invasive in the future.  This will buy us time to find more effective treatments or develop an effective vaccine.

4.  A vaccine is developed.  These take time to be developed, tested and mass-produced.  Perhaps, we will have a vaccine ready by the fall of 2021.

5.  Slow herd immunity.  Rather than quickly, we develop herd immunity slowly.  The disease eventually, over time, becomes much more like the common cold for most people.  But this will still be deadly for some populations.  Like the seasonal flu is deadly for some populations.  This might take 2-3 years to reach this point.

6.  We never develop a vaccine, early treatment nor herd immunity.  The disease constantly mutates.  We learn to adapt and evolve to a new normal.

This means fewer people living in cities.  More living in small towns.  More of us working from home.  Fewer of us commuting long distances to work.  Doctors doing more to help those with high risk of death factors; such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes.  Greater efforts to stop people from smoking and vaping.  Perhaps even outlawing tobacco and tobacco products.  Marijuana becoming illegal again.  Going back to smaller grocery stores instead of large supermarkets and big-box stores.  Smaller churches and no mega-churches.  Perhaps we will have closer knit communities, much like we used to.

Sports Franchises that May Not Survive Coronavirus

Due to Corona virus, the NHL, NBA and Major League Soccer are taking a break.  Major League Baseball is starting late.  There are some franchises that can't afford to lose any time off.  Their teams will not get revenue during the shutdown but some bills will still have to be paid.  Here is a list of teams that may not come back.

NFL

If Corona virus affect the NFL in 2020, football will be the least of our worries.  Society will be in collapse if the NFL is unable to kick off on time.  The worst-case scenario for the NFL is if the season starts a couple of weeks late.

NBA

There is only one franchise in basketball that Forbes reports operates at a loss.  That is the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Fortunately, the Thunder have a low debt to value ratio and could borrow the money to offset the loss of the rest of the 2020 season.  They will return next year.

The team most at risk is the Sacramento Kings.  Their debt to value ratio is currently at 30%.  Their value is at 1.7 billion, which means that the team has 510,000,000 in debt to pay.  This is mostly due to their share of the cost of the new arena.  Without any money coming in, the team may not be able to pay what they owe.  Of course, this is not knowing anything about how the debt is structured.

The worst-case scenario for the NBA is that the Kings, the Thunder and a couple of other teams that are operating at a loss have a "fire sale" to offload their highest paid players.  I don't expect the NBA will suffer much.

Hockey

The team at the greatest risk is the Arizona Coyotes.  According to Forbes, the hockey team based in the Phoenix suburbs has a 100% debt to value ratio and operates with a 15 million dollar loss.  The NHL currently owns and operates the team.  There is no scenario where this works out, unless the league wants to keep losing money in Arizona.  The Coyotes have been in trouble for a long time.  Coronavirus may push them over the edge.

The Coyotes are not the only team in the National Hockey League that are in trouble and may fold if the league does not get back on the ice.  The Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets and Winnepeg Jets are also in financial trouble.

The most likely scenario for the NHL that I see is if the Coyotes are finally sold for a very low price and the new owners move them to Kansas City or Houston or another city where they can be profitable and the rest of the league takes on their debt.  In the worst-case scenario, the Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets also move or the NHL experiences a contraction of 2 franchises.

Major League Soccer

Sure, it's a good idea to have 2 teams in New York.  All of the other leagues in North America have 2 teams in the New York area while Hockey has 3.  NYCFC is the team in Major League Soccer losing the most money.  This does not mean that they are in the worst shape and are least prepared to weather this storm.  Keep in mind that the team that plays games in Yankee Stadium is backed by Manchester City, one of the most valuable teams in the English Premier League and has the wealthiest owner in all of sport.

The Chicago Fire are also losing money hand over fist, which is why they abandoned their suburban soccer-specific stadium for a return to Soldier Field. Soccer is structured differently.  The Chicago Fire were, at one time, one of the more successful teams in Major League Soccer.  Major League Soccer will strive to keep a team in the hub of the American Heartland if they possibly can, even if it is only a symbolic gesture.

The teams in the most trouble with a protracted shutdown would be the the teams north of the border.  Their revenue is in Canadian money, but their expenses are in US Dollars.  Even today, this is not an even exchange.  The Canadian dollar is worth about 70-75% of the US dollar.  This is the reason why most of the NHL is south of the border, while most of the players come from the north.  Beyond this, are there any other US teams in trouble?

Possibly the Colorado Rapids are this team.  They are the least valuable in Major League Soccer.  In 2019 they were 2nd to last in attendance in MLS.  There are teams in Major League Soccer located farther from the downtown hub than DSG is to downtown Denver that do better in attendance.  Their Rocky Mountain rival, Real Salt Lake, for example, is nearly twice as far from downtown as they are and does much better in attendance.  Denver is the smallest US metro with all 5 major sports, nearly 700,000 people behind the next smallest, Minneapolis-St. Paul.  This year, they have a promising team. Hopefully, this will result in an uptick in attendance.

The worst-case scenario for Major League Soccer is that the three teams based in Canada leave Major League Soccer and return to an all-Canadian league and a couple of teams, namely Chicago and Colorado move.  The most likely scenario is that none of this happens and the league continues its plans to expand.

Major League Baseball

There is only one baseball team that is in real financial trouble at this time, no matter what you may see elsewhere.  The only team with a load of debt and annual financial losses is the Miami Marlins.  But with most baseball teams, April is when crowds are the smallest...other than opening day.  Summer is where the real money is made.  If baseball can get going in May, no one is really in trouble.  The Tampa Bay Rays also seem like they struggle.  They play in likely the worst stadium and smallest stadium in Baseball. From a financial standpoint, they break even and do not have a load of debt.  Obviously, this can't continue forever, and the virus may make things worse.

The most likely scenario is that nothing major happens in Major League Baseball as a result of the pandemic.  Baseball continues on.  It represents American stability through hard times.  Baseball survived two world wars and the Great Depression and the cancellation of one World Series.  It will survive this.  The worst case scenario is that future baseball in Florida beyond Spring Training becomes a thing of the past.