Three weeks ago, I had Biden winning 320 electoral votes, with an over/under of 55. Meaning, anywhere between a vary narrow Trump victory to a Biden landslide.
Today, I am changing my prediction to 359 for Biden, 179 for Trump, with Biden winning a potential of another 48 electoral votes and Trump perhaps winning another 25. That would be Biden winning with anywhere between 334 and 407. Meaning anywhere from a Biden small victory to a Biden landslide.
I know many of my readers will call me a liberal...or most likely worse. However, I think I am being generous for Trump. The RCP no-Tossup Map has 374 for Biden and 164 for Trump. I gave Trump North Carolina.
The reason for this change is the way that Trump behaved once he got the virus. It is at best negligent and may make him civilly liable.
Biden would be doing better if he had avoided stooping to Trump's level during the debate. If he had been the adult in the room, he could run the rest of the election from his basement.
I have to ask the question to Donald Trump...do you want to lose an election? Because this is how you lose an election. Many people are voting early, indicating a strong desire for change. A low turnout supports the status quo. Donald Trump might be able to brag that he won more votes in 2020 than Hillary did in 2016. That will not carry much weight.
It is likely not going to be a good night for Republicans on election night. But it will be far from a complete disaster.
This will, however, by no means be a record night. Although this could be a record night for a Democratic party candidate challenging an incumbent Republican. Biden will not push 500 electoral votes. My feeling is that a strong push from a 3rd party candidate like Jo Johansen might push Biden into the mid-400s, but still not quite Reagan's 489 (vs an incumbent) in 1980.
It has been 52 years since a 3rd Party candidate won a single state. It will be at least another 4. But if your looking to make money on a bet, bet that Jo Johansen wins at least one state.
The Dems may win a 1 or 2 seat majority in the Senate. I predict a minor change in favor of the Democrats in the House. I still predict that Jim Clyburn will become the first African American Speaker of the House. Patty Murray is now my prediction to become the Senate Majority Leader.
I am also going to make a prediction for 2024.
It will be Kamala Harris/ Tammy Baldwin vs. Nikki Haley/ Joni Ernst. That's right, not a single Y Chromosome for the two major parties. We'll see.
What do you think?
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