Tuesday, September 29, 2015

What are the chances that these coaches will leave after this season.

Bronco Mendenhall--It's a little early to tell at this point.  It is likely that the Michigan game was an abortion and that BYU will win 10 games, plus their bowl game this year.  But if Michigan become a harbinger for the rest of the season, there will be a lot of pressure on Mendenhall to step down, especially if the Kansas City Chiefs can't right the ship and Andy Reid is suddenly available.  But even if BYU is a paltry 6-6, Mendenhall will be back next year if he wants the job.

How much longer will Bronco be at BYU?  IMHO, no more than 1-2 seasons.  Bronco said 3 years for BYU to get into a power conference.  I think that means that he has 3 years left to coach in Provo.

Possible Short List to Replace Mendenhall if he leaves after this season:

-KC Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid, if he is available.
-Stanford Defensive Coordinator Lance Anderson
-Oregon State Defensive Coordinator Kalani Sitake
-Seattle Seahawks Offensive Coordinator Darrel Bevel
-Utah Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick

Kyle Whittingham--If Utah wins the PAC-12 and qualifies for the playoffs, KW will be on every NFL team's short list for new head coaches.  What teams could be looking for a new head coach this season?  The New York Giants and the Miami Dolphins are among the teams that may part ways with their coach after this season.  Chris Hill will pull out all the stops to keep KW from going to another college, and it's not like a lot of choice college jobs will be open after this season, unless you want Arkansas or Texas, but there may be an NFL opportunity too good to pass up.  I think the chances that KW stays at Utah, however, are better than 50-50.

How much longer will KW be at Utah:  It may not be this year, but KW will be coaching in the NFL sooner rather than later.

Possible Short List to Replace Whittingham if he leaves after this season:

-Oregon State Head Coach Gary Anderson
-Utah State Head Coach Matt Wells
-Oregon State Defensive Coordinator Kalani Sitake
-Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick
-Special Teams Coordinator Morgan Scalley

Matt Wells--He has done well enough at Utah State to gain the attention of others across the college football world.  I don't know his mind, but he has his price and someone may be willing to give it to him.  He could even end up down the road in Salt Lake if KW is lured to the NFL.  Unless an SMU-like scandal is uncovered, he will not be forced out of Logan.

How much longer will Matt Wells be at Utah State: A successful coach in Logan will sooner or later be drawn away for more money.  I don't know Wells personally, and I don't pretend to know what is in his heart and mind.  He may be at USU for a few more seasons, he may leave after this year.  Sooner or later, a job that he can't pass up will come his way.

Possible Short List to Replace Wells if he leaves after this season:

-Defensive Coordinator Kevin Clune
-Offensive Coordinator Josh Heupel
-Montana State Head Coach Rob Ash
-Utah Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick
-Utah Special Teams Coordinator Morgan Scalley

Weber State Head Coach Jay Hill

I do not get the sense that Jerry Bovee is going to send Jay Hill away anytime soon.  As long as the 'Cats are making progress this year, he will have a job.  He has not yet done well enough in Ogden to be lured away by any other head coaching opportunities.  He may get the chance to be an assistant somewhere, but I don't have the sense that he leaves.  The real question in Ogden is when is Weber State going to give up on Football.  Although the athletic program in Ogden isn't as subsidized as much as it is at other colleges in the state.  

How Much Longer will Jay Hill be at Weber State:  If Hill can turn the program around, he will leave not much longer afterwards, much like Mike Price.  Well, he might be around for a season or two afterwards, but coaches don't come to Weber State to make a career of it.  If he leaves after this season, it will likely to become an assistant coach somewhere.

Possible Short List to Replace Hill if he leaves after this season:

-BYU Defensive Coordinator Nick Howell
-BYU Assistant Coach Garrett Tujague
-BYU QB Coach Jason Beck
-Montana State Offensive Coordinator Tim Cramsey
-Offensive Coordinator Steve Clark

Southern Utah Head Coach Ed Lamb

Southern Utah is a lot like Weber State.  Lamb hasn't yet done well enough to get the attention of FBS programs, but not poorly enough to be shown the door.  He will be back next year.  But the problem in Cedar City is money.  SUU is subsidized more than any other school in the state, and there is pressure on the athletic department to make cuts.  If he leaves after this season, it will likely to become an assistant coach somewhere.

Possible Short List to Replace Lamb if he leaves after this season:

-Utah assistant coach Justin Ena
-Montana State Offensive Coordinator Tim Cramsey
-Portland State Defensive Coordinator Malik Roberson
-Weber State Offensive Coordinator Steve Clark
-Defensive Coordinator Demario Warren

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