BYU finally has a signature road win in Independence and Utah has beaten a Big 10 team and broken into the national rankings. But whether or not this is a breakthrough remains to be seen. Not all breakthroughs are apparent right away. Utah State's near loss may be better for the team in the long run because it will serve at motivation all season. And it will serve to humble a group of people who often find it difficult to be humble.
Rome wasn't built in a day, and BYU didn't become an overnight success. Coach Edwards often points to the work that Tommy Hudspedth did as BYU's coach. Perhaps BYU's struggles in recent seasons have been a lull that almost every program has. If I was to point to a breakthrough win for the BYU football program, I would go November 6, 1965. That game was a 25-20 win over Utah, only the third time every that BYU had beaten Utah. But from 1965 to 1992, BYU dominated this series. After this game came their first conference championship, then came others, and invites to bowl games and eventually a National Championship and a Heisman Trophy winner. But it all had to start somewhere. BYU is already big. Success this season will add to their legacy.
Time also changes perspectives. What if Utah had been invited to the PAC-12 four years earlier? We wouldn't have been talking about the 2009 Sugar Bowl for the Utes, but the 2009 Rose Bowl or something bigger instead. If the PAC-10 had expanded to 12 in 1990 would they have even considered Utah? Chances are, we wouldn't be speculating on BYU being in the Big 12, if that had happened, because BYU would be there already.
What BYU needs is a big enough season so that when the Big 12 decides to expand, they won't even think about anyone else. They may not need to finish 12-0. They just need to prove that last Saturday in Lincoln was no fluke.
Utah doesn't need to win the PAC-12 this year, even though a conference championship would be nice. They only need to prove that they can compete.
Utah State doesn't need to break into a NY6 bowl this year. They just need to remind the MWC that they are still a force.
The number of wins needed to reach these thresholds isn't yet clear. But it will be by the end of the season.
Predictions
Utah State at Utah
The Aggies had a pretty dismal offensive performance against Southern Utah. This puts more pressure on the offense to perform against a very stout defense. Even though Utah's offensive performance was nothing to brag about, they did good enough to win in week 1. The Aggies also have a very good defense. I don't expect a lot of scoring in this game.
Utah 17 Utah State 10
Boise State at BYU
BSU defensively did very well against Washington in week 1. But their offense struggled. BYU struggled at times on defense in Lincoln. Taysom Hill's foot was the main reason BYU didn't pull away from the Huskers in the 2nd half. One thing that the 4th quarter in Lincoln did for Tanner Mangum was give him success, and with success comes confidence. The final 2 drives against Nebraska, BYU used a balanced attack and got over 140 yards and 9 points. That is what BYU will need against Boise State. I don't think that this is a game that BYU has to win, but it will help a lot if they do. I expect this one will be back and forth and the team that has the ball in scoring range last should win.
Boise State 31 BYU 30
Weber State at North Dakota State
Sometimes a loss will wake up a sleeping giant. That is what Montana did to North Dakota State in a game two weeks ago. All that NDSU did in response was go to Laramie and blow out their former coach and the Cowboys. Last week WSU lost by a trio of touchdowns, and if it weren't for an incredible performance by one safety, WSU wouldn't have scored at all. I think WSU will go into homecoming next week still looking for their first offensive touchdown.
NDSU 55 WSU 3
Southern Utah at South Dakota State
If SUU is going to make the post season this year, this is a must win game for them. They do not have another shot at an FCS school, and there are others in the Big Sky Conference who have a higher RPI...who don't appear on the SUU schedule, BTW. The computer rankings have the Jackrabbits at about a 14 point favorite. This game should be much closer than that. SUU's defense held Chuckie Keeton and the USU offense in check last week in Logan. They can handle a few puny Jackrabbits. The question is whether or not Ammon Olsen and the offense can score enough points to win. I think that the difference in this game will be another special teams effort.
SUU 24 SDSU 21
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