In order for Independence to begin working for BYU you have to prove that BYU would not only be better off financially than as a member of the MWC, but also get a better results than they would have as a member of their old conference.
Financially, reports are that they are making about seven times the money they were making as a member of the MW. But that is still about half of what they could make in a power-five conference.
As far as better results, that is not a little more obvious. As you may know, one at-large spot in the NY-6 bowls goes to the highest ranked member of a G-5 conference. Last year, Boise State received an invite to a NY 6 Bowl and beat Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. But that is the only time as an independent that a member of BYUs old conference received an invite to a big bowl. The only other time in independence that BYU saw a G-5 member get to a big bowl game was a couple of years ago when Northern Illinois got to the Orange Bowl. This year, Boise State seems likely to get that invite again, but it may not happen. As of this week, the Memphis Tigers are ranked higher in Sagarin and some of the other computer polls than Boise State. If this holds out, Memphis would have the G-5 spot in the NY-6 bowls and not Boise State. But it is early in the season.
Current Rankings of the top team in each G-5 Conference (According to Sagarin)
31. Memphis-AAC
41. Boise State-MWC
50. Toledo-MAC
64. Louisiana Tech-C-USA
81. Louisiana Lafayette-Sun Belt
It is true that the G-5 has an easier path to the NY-6 bowls and also an easier path to the playoffs, it does not mean that each year the honor will go to a member of the Mountain West Conference. The Mountain West is not the strongest G-5 conference at this time. Currently, that honor is going to the American Athletic Conference and not to the Mountain West.
In order for BYU to have a better result in independence, you would have to guess what result they would have as a member of the MWC. You would have to correctly guess how would BYU's Schedule look as an MWC member.
If BYU had remained, the MWC had two options. First, they could have spurned Utah State and remained at 12. Or they could have added UTEP and gone to 14. I believe the latter would have happened. Then you would have to have guessed how the MWC would have scheduled. My guess is that they would have chosen an 9 game model. That is 6 division games, 1 game against a permanent non-Division rival. For BYU, the probably would have been Hawaii. Then there would be two more games against teams from the other division. To make the comparison easy, let's say that this year, BYU's other two non division games are against Boise State in Provo and at San Jose State.
Had BYU remained...MWC Divisions
Mountain West
Air Force Boise State
BYU Fresno State
Colorado State Hawaii
New Mexico Nevada
Utah State UNLV
UTEP San Jose State
Wyoming San Diego State
BYU's Conference games (Current Sagarin Ranking)
Division Games
Air Force (62)
Colorado State (73)
@ New Mexico (137)
@ Utah State (77)
UTEP (146)
@ Wyoming (179)
Non-division conference games:
Boise State (41)
@ San Jose State (95)
@ Hawaii (99)
Non Conference Games are a little bit harder to conjecture. BYU's non conference schedule has had a lot of help from ESPN. Without independence, there would be no ESPN. There would be no games against Nebraska, Michigan and Missouri. I think BYU's three non conference games would have been at UCLA, East Carolina and Wagner.
@ UCLA (17)
East Carolina (74)
Wagner (215)
Note: average ranking of opponents: 101.
BYU just beat Boise State. Against this schedule, BYU probably goes 11-1 in the regular season, with the sole loss being at UCLA. Then being ranked higher than BSU, they get to host BSU in the MW Conference Championship, which they should also win. Meaning BYU is 12-1 and awaiting the bowl selection committee's decision. Let's say that Memphis is also 12-1, with a sole loss at home against Ole Miss. In the polls, where would BYU be ranked? Right now, BYU is ranked 20/22 in the polls, but a little lower by Sagarin, but no enough to make a difference.
The main reason BYU cracked the rankings this early in the real 2015 is because they won at Nebraska and beat Boise State. In the alternative 2015, they are probably not going to crack the polls this early with games against East Carolina and Air Force to start the season. In both reality and fantasy, BYU plays UCLA in week 3. In our fantasy version, they crack the polls for beating UCLA. In reality 2015, they may not drop out of the top 25 for losing to UCLA, as long as it is not a blowout.
Cracking the rankings early means a lot for BYU in reality 2015. A loss to UCLA may not drop them out of the top 25. And they have a good shot, even with losses to UCLA and Missouri at finishing in the top 10. If BYU finishes in the top 10 in reality 2015, they will get to an NY-6 Bowl. And they may even get there with 2 losses. In our fantasy 2015, they would have to finish ahead of all other G-5 conference champions. So being ranked early isn't as important. But BYU is completely in control of their destiny in reality 2015. They have to worry about other schools that don't appear on their schedule in fantasy 2015.
This is the reality that Boise State faces this year. The loss to BYU was big. Not just because Boise State lost, but because of how dismal the rest of the conference has been. When BYU was in the MW, the conference was very good at winning big non-conference games. The old conference has lost that swagger. In 2015, the conference has been dismal. From a 73-21 loss at Ole Miss by Fresno State. To Wyoming losing to North Dakota State. Frankly, if an NY-6 bowl is Boise State's goal, they are no longer in the driver's seat and schools like Memphis and Temple could easily pass them in the rankings.
But in the long run, we can conjecture all we want to. Independence for BYU is not really about one-upping the MW. They are auditioning for a P-5 Conference invite. So far in 2015, the audition is going very well. There is no way to prove that they could handle a P-5 schedule by remaining in the MW.
If the NY-6 is BYU's goal this season, they have done well so far in getting there. Again, two impressive early season wins and BYU is ranked early. They really don't have to worry about what Boise or Memphis or Temple does. If one of those schools is ranked ahead of BYU, who cares? If BYU takes care of business, they will be where they should be at season's end. And 2015 will finally be the year independence works for BYU.
BYU's Current Schedule
@ Nebraska (35) w-33-28
Boise State (41) w-35-24
@ UCLA (17)
@ Michigan (38)
Connecticut (112)
Cincinnati (63)
East Carolina (74)
Wagner (215)
@ San Jose State (95)
@ Missouri (33)
Fresno State (97)
@ Utah State (77)
Average opponent ranking 75
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