How long can Idaho bide their time? They can probably survive and an independent for 2 maybe 3 seasons, but will have to settle for dropping to to the FCS if a new conference can't be found. In order for a new conference to appear for Idaho, some things beyond their control need to happen.
1. The MWC needs to expand to 12 without Boise State or San Diego State. Who could they add now, UTEP? Montana? Tulsa? Bring back BYU?
Why this could happen...Boise State and San Diego State seem committed to the Big East for now, but without an automatic bid, they may lose the TV contract money. For now, the TV money is still better in the Big East.
2. Probably 4-6 FCS programs, like Montana and Montana State, need to be willing to move up.
Why this could happen...When the WAC was stable, Cal Poly seemed ready to make the move. Montana can compete. The FCS is dwindling on the east coast, and the playoffs are losing money. Moving to the FBS could raise the profile of other sports programs.
3. Utah Valley needs to add football.
Why this could happen...rumor has it that is has been in the works for years.
4. Boise State and San Diego State need to give up on the Big East.
See #1 above.
5. BYU needs to give up on independence.
If the BCS playoffs require a conference champion, and BYU does not get into the Big 12 and if BYU can keep their own TV deal...
If this happens, here is a potential new conference that could rise out of the ashes, and how the alignment in the west could look.
New FBS Conference--10 Members
Air Force (Travel partner for UNM, football cred)
Boise State (football cred)
BYU (football cred)
Idaho (Travel partner for BSU)
Fresno State (Travel Partner for San Diego State)
Nevada (Travel partner for UNLV)
UNLV (BBall Cred)
New Mexico (BBall Cred)
San Diego State (BBall Cred)
Utah State (Travel partner for BYU)
Mountain West--10 Members (9 for basketball)
UC Davis (Football Only)
Cal Poly (Football Only
Colorado State
Denver (Non Football)
Hawaii (Football Only)
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Seattle (Non Football)
UTEP
Wyoming
Big Sky 11-FCS football members
Eastern Washington
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Weber State
Portland State
North Dakota (UND might be better off in the MVFC, however.)
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Utah Valley
Denver and Seattle could join the WCC instead of the MWC.
For now, I suggest that Idaho and New Mexico play as Independents in football and that the WAC and the Big Sky merge in other sports. I know that makes a 16 team conference, but it could be worse.
2 comments:
What happens to SUU? Or did I miss something?
I just read about the big 12 possibly adding FSU and Clemson to get to 12. If this is true it will probably set off another round of conference realignment and most likely another raid on the BE. With the changes in the BCS formula do you feel BYU is now Big East bound, returning to the MWC or staying independent?
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