Conference Realignment...The Big Sky so far Untouched.

Updated July 15, 2012

The is one in a series of posts that examines the viability of Idaho remaining at the FBS level.  One assumption is that the Big Sky Conference will remain untouched by continued conference expansion.  The purpose of this post is to point out that this is unlikely.  This was changed after further research into the sports programs of Portland State.

The WAC is finished, but conference realignment is not.  Idaho may remain an FBS team after all.  So far, the Big Sky Conference has remained untouched by the conference realignment mess, but do not expect that to remain the case before the dust settles.

Montana, Montana State, UC Davis, Cal Poly, Portland State and Sacramento State may remain targets of FBS conferences looking for schools willing to move up to the FBS level.  Here are some scenarios that could touch the Big Sky Conference.  In any scenario where the Mountain West Conference is raided further, the MWC is likely now, with the WAC gone, will look to the Big Sky Conference for replacements.

1.  Boise State/Big 12 cause the Big East to collapse.    What has caused this problem is the collapse of the WAC.  BSU was going to place their non-football sports in the august conference, but if one more school leaves and there is not any further expansion, there will not be a WAC to for them to place their Olympic sports.  Reportedly,  Boise State is now in negotiations with the Big West Conference to put their non-football programs there.

Another possibility is that the Big East loses Cincinnati and Louisville to the Big 12 or that they lose Rutgers and UConn to the ACC in a 16-team expansion of that conference.  The Big East is likely to look to either C-USA or to the MWC to remain viable. The reason I say this is because New Mexico and Wyoming have basketball programs that are stronger than East Carolina, Marshall, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa or Southern Mississippi, those schools still in Conference USA that would likely be under consideration.  The Big East is a basketball conference first, and they would rather look for programs that keep their basketball prowess.  With San Diego state in tow, even UNLV becomes a possibility.

Another possibility is that the football members of the Big East decide not to remain together.  The Eastern half...whatever remains...would raid C-USA, the MAC and the CAA for membership (U Mass, Marshall, Toledo, Ohio, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Delaware, Rhode Island, JMU for starters), where the western half could add some of the other western members of C-USA and maybe take on some members of the Mountain West.  Think about that...Boise State, SMU, Houston, Memphis and San Diego State...are they not a better core for a new conference than those left in the MWC or C-USA?  Would they not easily draw out Fresno State, New Mexico, Nevada and UNLV?  Perhaps Hawaii as well?  Perhaps Tulsa, UTEP, Rice and Tulane could be considered as well.  Maybe they could even lure BYU out of independence.

In this scenario, the core of the MWC: Air Force, Colorado State and Wyoming, represent stability that the WAC never had in it's last days.

2.  BYU is spurned by the Big 12, gives up on independence and forms a new conference.  BYU does not have the WAC to fall back on, which was likely part of the plan when BYU withdrew from the MWC.  Of course Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii were part of the WAC back then.  BYU is not likely to go back to the MWC as there is still enough bad blood between BYU and some remaining MWC members to block BYU's inclusion.  (Although a Wyoming alum in my family tells me that Wyoming and BYU are mending fences.)  And even though there is no mtn, the TV situation in the MWC is not settled and still not to the liking of the BYU administration.

But who would join BYU in a new venture?  Look to those 5 western members of the Big East.  Also look at Hawaii and Utah State, those who appear on BYU's schedule every season.

I do not think that the Mountain West is in danger of folding as I once did, as long as they can keep a core like Colorado State and Wyoming.  The MWC and C-USA are linked, and in reality, the MWC is still better off than the MWC.  They could still lure UTEP and perhaps Rice and Tulsa away if C-USA is again raided from the east and loses East Carolina and Southern Mississippi.  The only "mid-major" conference that is more viable than the MWC right now is probably the MAC.  The Sun Belt is still the main target of C-USA should they need more expansion.

The MWC however, does not have a lot of options for expansion among current FBS programs.  If they keep Hawaii, then what is really the reality of adding Tulsa, Rice or Tulane.  Travel may not be an issue for a conference with Big East-like revenue, but it is an issue for the MWC.  Traveling from Honolulu to New Orleans could eat up a travel budget quickly, even if it is just for football.  That kind of expansion could push Hawaii into independence, as this was the main reason Hawaii left the WAC.

This is just the kind of scenario Idaho and New Mexico State are hoping for.  After Idaho and New Mexico State, where does the MWC go?  UTEP is the only other school in the MWC footprint at the FCS level.  After these options are exhausted, then it will be time to raid the Big Sky Conference.

Again, the candidates are Montana and Montana State because of their recent successes at the FCS level, followed by the bigger-market programs in the Big Sky: Portland State, Sacramento State, UC Davis and Cal Poly.  The last three on the radar are likely Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona and Weber State.  And this is the likely order.

Weber State has the facilities, but there are already 3 FBS programs in Utah, and it will be 15-20 years before the state will have the population to support another.  Utah really needs a population of 3.6 million before WSU would be viable as an FBS program...it takes about 900,000 to support a modern FBS program.  When you think about it, Utah State struggled until Utah's population hit 2.7 million a couple of years ago.  There are now enough local recruits for BYU, Utah and Utah State.  That was not the case before.  And when Utah State was successful in the 1970s and 1980s, either BYU or Utah was struggling.  At the current rate of growth, Utah will hit that mark in 2024-2027.  Weber State will succeed as an FBS program once BYU, Utah and Utah State have their choice of local recruits and there are still enough for Weber.  Look for the Weber program, however, to get stronger at the FCS level over the next few years (and SUU as well) and more quality local recruits get passed over by the existing FBS programs in Utah.

Northern Arizona lives in a state that could support another FBS program, but they are isolated from the population centers in their state.  If they were 100 miles closer to Phoenix, they would have an easier time getting crowds to their games, and getting quality players from the greater Phoenix metro.  But that location can't be helped.  Personally, I think being a stone's throw from the Grand Canyon and Las Vegas is not being used enough by the NAU marketing department, but that is just me.  "Come see the game, get away for the weekend" could be a good marketing slogan for the Jacks, but they would need some local travel agency to create packages to make it work.  But Flagstaff and the rest of Northern Arizona may see a mini-boom as people continue to work away from the office and can be productive working at home.  The quality of recruits into NAU may improve in the future.  NAU is closer to Las Vegas than they are to Phoenix.  As Las Vegas grows, NAU becomes a viable alternative to UNLV.

Eastern Washington is in a similar situation to Northern Arizona, except that they are close to Spokane.  However, it is only a medium-sized market...about 600,000 or so, but growing.  EWU also has a small student-body, which translates to a small alumni base.  However, that has not been a reason for SMU, Rice and Tulsa to reclassify to the FCS.  EWU will continue to be a strong FCS program in the coming years.  Perhaps the northern Idado, eastern Washington area will see a population mini-boom similar to what is expected in Flagstaff as people who are not tied to commuting everyday to the office begin to leave Portland and Seattle for smaller communities and fewer headaches of city life.

UC Davis and Cal Poly have the sports programs and the academic reputation and the market, but do not have the facilities and their state is broke.  They are good options, but not immediate ones.  If either school could come up with the money to expand their stadia, then they should rocket to the top of the list.  But that would have to be a completely private venture as California has been hit rather hard by the current economic recession as slow recovery.  Should fortunes change in the near future, Cal-Poly and UC Davis jump ahead of Montana, Montana State and Portland State. Currently, these programs are good alternatives for young men who may not be quite good enough for the NFL and not quite smart enough or rich enough for Harvard.  Can't think of a better school to get a good education than one of these two schools at any level that participates in College Football.

Sacramento State has the sports programs and the facilities, but not the recent performance.  Sac State would likely end up in the cellar of the MWC in all sports for a long time if they were to move up.  Sacramento State needs to work on improving their on the field performance, especially in football and basketball, before they look at jumping to the next level.  If they improve their performance, they will find that it will be easier to draw crowds.  Look at how well the Sacramento Kings and Minor League teams are supported in Sac-town.  If the Hornets could be consistent winners in the field, they would be consistent winners at the gate and hard for the MWC to pass up.

Portland State has the market and the facilities and may be added to a stable FBS conference ahead of the Montana schools.  The reason is that the MWC may only have one opening and Montana and Montana State would probably come in as a pair.  Therefore, if the MWC needs only one school from the Big Sky, don't be surprised if it is Portland State instead of Montana. 


Montana and Montana State already have the facilities and only need to add the women's sports programs for title IX.  This is the excuse that they used to spurn the WAC, and it is a good one.  But they may find if they move up, increased football revenues could cover that expense.  Montana, as a state, has the population to support 1 FBS program, but not 2.  Montana is just shy of 1 million in population.  Their state's annual growth rate is about 1% per year.  Without a major population boom, it will be decades before Montana has enough people to support 2 FBS programs, before the state adds another 800,000 people  (about 5 cities the size of Billings, the largest city in Montana).  That does stop West Virginia, for example; but look at how much Marshall has struggled recently?  If both Montana schools join the WAC, one will likely struggle for a long time.  The only saving grace?  BYU-Idaho does not have sports and Montana State can also claim northeastern Idaho as their market.  And Northern Wyoming has doesn't have much to speak of.  Montana State has a large circle of land with potential recruits nearly all to themselves.  It's not a densley populated area, but another 100,000 people live within 200 miles of Bozeman outside the state of Montana.  And the closest large university to Montana State does not have a sports program.  If there is another population boom, perhaps due to new energy development, maybe both schools can succeed at the higher level.  They are certainly tearing up the FCS right now.