Does Idaho Deserve This?

The University of Idaho appears to be without a football home beginning with the 2013 season if they decide to remain in the Football Bowl Subdivision.  The questions that people should ask: Does Idaho deserve their fate?  Could our school be next?  There are five factors that have sealed the fate of the University of Idaho football program and these factors should serve as a warning to others who may follow someday.

First factor, on the field performance.  In 1997, Idaho transitioned from the Football Championship Subdivision, then known as Division I-AA to the Football Bowl Subdivision or Division I-A.  The moved up because of their degree of success in the 1980's and 1990s.  Before then, the Vandals had not been all that successful, just a handful of conference championships, until 1982 when Dennis Erickson took over as the head football coach.  Erickson coached Idaho for 4 seasons, initially, and earned a 32-15 record.  Keith Gilbertson had similar results, and even took the Vandals to the I-AA semi-finals in 1988.  Same story for John L. Smith.  In 1997, they seemed ready for the big-time College football, and were successful the first two years, as members of the Big West Conference, where in 1998 they won the conference championship and the Humanitarian Bowl en route to a 9-3 record.  After that Bowl win, the wheels came off.  Chris Tormey left for Nevada beginning in the 2000 season.  From 1999 to 2011, Idaho has amassed a 39-185 record, with only one winning season, in 2009.

Second factor, facilities.  The Kibbie Dome is the smallest stadium in the Football Bowl Subdivision and only seats 16,000 people.  If Idaho returns to the Big Sky Conference, at the FCS level, there will be 7 football stadiums larger than the Kibbie Dome.  Montana, Sacramento State, Portland State, Montana State, Weber State and Northern Arizona can seat larger crowds.  If Idaho were in the BSC, they would have a median-sized stadium.  There have been proposals and attempts to build a larger facility in Moscow, even a proposal for a shared stadium on the border between Idaho and Washington for both Idaho and Washington State, but nothing ever became of any of them.  Part of the problem is that an indoor facility can't be easily expanded.

Third factor, attendance.  Idaho's attendance has been well below the 15,000 minimum standard that the NCAA has proposed for the Football Bowl Subdivision.  Not selling a lot of tickets will keep big time programs from visiting your stadium, and hence, the Vandals play a ton of "one and done" football series against other programs.  Here is Idaho's attendance for the last five seasons.

2011...11,980
2010...12,730
2009...12,546
2008...15,340
2007...11,479

Four factor, market.  The market of Latah County, Idaho/Whitman County, Washington is 82,000.  That market is shared with Washington State University of the PAC-12.  It is a crowded market that people do not want to touch.  Because it is such a small market, Idaho alumni do not stay nearby when they graduate, and that is a factor with game attendance.  Idaho Alumni can be found in great numbers in Boise and Spokane, which are not big cities by any means.  Bigger by some standards, but not big like Seattle and Portland.  You can also find alumni from Washington State, Eastern Washington, Gonzaga and Boise State in these cities as well.  You can find Idaho alumni all over the west, but that is no different than any other school in the west.

Fifth factor, conference affiliation and proximity.  With the WAC in a tailspin, and with the Mountain West spurning the Vandals, there is no where else for them to go.  There are other schools similar to Idaho in market size, attendance, performance and facilities, but they have the MAC or the Sun Belt conference to call home. Idaho is not so fortunate. New Mexico State may get back into the Sun Belt due to proximity, in spite of a worse historical performance than Idaho. Unfortunate for Idaho, but true.

Does Idaho deserve to be knocked down a notch?  Most pundits will tell you, considering these factors, that the answer is yes.  But Idaho does have a stellar academic reputation and would have lifted the academic profile of the Mountain West Conference.  That will not change even if Idaho can't maintain their FBS standing.

Should this be a warning to other schools?  Yes, it should, but it will likely only be so to schools that can compete at the FBS level, and will keep them from moving up.  It will not likely help Buffalo or Kent get larger facilities built, or spurn Arkansas State to push harder for Conference USA membership.  But any school, that is semi-isolated, should work to ensure that they have adequate facilities and good attendance so that they do not suffer Idaho's fate.