In spite of 47 wins, a 32-game winning streak and wins over ranked opponents, the Utah Valley University Wolverine baseball team has been snubbed by the NCAA tournament. UVU belongs to the Great West Conference for almost all of their sports, and that conference does not have an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
With all of the success playing baseball, the Wolverines were only ranked with a 72 RPI. The RPI for baseball is similar to what is it for basketball and football. You beat who you are supposed to beat, your ranking remains were it is. If you beat someone you are not supposed to beat, your ranking will go up. If you lose to someone you should beat, the ranking goes down.
Where the season and the NCAA bid was lost for the Wolverines was in the early season. They had one game against Arizona, which they lost. They lost 2 out of 3 to Nevada. UVU was swept by CS Fullerton. Those are the games that UVU needs to have back if they wanted to get into the NCAA tournament. Shortly after this slow start to the season, they split a series at Arizona State. Like many college baseball teams from northern climbs, UVU began with 17 games on the road. A fact that college baseball must address.
Their streak included wins against BYU and Utah, who both were not as good this season as they have been in the past. The only real impressive win in the streak was a game against Arizona. The rest of the streak was conference games, neither school that UVU played in conference had an RPI above 200. A team with an RPI of 72 is supposed to beat a team with an RPI of 200. The streak itself was impressive, but only one game in that streak was against a team that would improve a team's RPI. UVU's Strength of schedule was a not so impressive 262 in the country.
Hence the Wolverines are on the outside of the NCAA tournament looking in. Those who are trying to keep the WAC together, at least as a non-football conference, should take note. UVU has not only been successful in baseball in 2012, but also in men's basketball. The WAC, which currently sits at 5 schools could maintain their automatic bid status with just 2 more schools. Certainly UVU would accept if invited, as the WAC has something that the Wolverine program really wants and needs. WAC Champion, New Mexico State where their RPI of 39 was good enough for a #2 seed in the Tuscon Sub Regional. Evidence that this is not a perfect system. But an automatic bid will fix what kept UVU out this year.
Utah Valley University Season Report
Strength of Schedule
RPI
Monday, May 28, 2012
Monday, May 21, 2012
5th and 6th best conferences...How they come together.
To determine what the 2nd tier of college football will look like, let's look at who is left.
Left in the ACC...4 will be left.
-Duke University...
-University of North Carolina...
-Wake Forrest...
-University of Syracuse...
Left in the Big East...9 football members left
Louisville...
South Florida...
Central Florida...
Houston...
Southern Methodist...
Memphis...
Temple...
Boise State...
Navy...
FBS Independents...2 left
Brigham Young...
Army...
Also without a conference
Idaho
New Mexico State
Also available
Conference USA
Alabama Birmingham...Birmingham, AL is the 50th largest metro in the US.
East Carolina...Greenville, NC is the 220th largest metro in the US
Marshall...Huntington, WV is not part of a large metro area.
Southern Mississippi...Hattisburg, MS is part of the Biloxi, MS metro, the 185th largest in the US
Rice...See Houston
UTEP...El Paso, TX is the 65th largest metro in the US.
Tulane...New Orleans is the 46th largest metro in the US.
Tulsa...Tulsa is the 54th largest metro in the US.
UNC Charlotte...Charlotte is the 33rd largest metro in the US
FIU...see Miami
Louisiana Tech...Rushton, LA is not part of a large metro
Old Dominion...Norfolk, VA is the 36th largest metro in the US.
UTSA...San Antonio is the 24th largest metro in the US.
Mountain West Conference
Air Force...Colorado Springs, CO is the 81st largest metro in the US.
Colorado State...Fort Collins, CO is the 155th largest metro in the US. (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Denver metro.)
UNLV...Las Vegas, NV is the 30th largest metro in the US.
UNM...Albuquerque, NM is the 57th largest metro in the US.
Wyoming...Laramie, WY is not part of a large metro
Fresno State...Fresno, CA is the 55th largest metro in the US
Nevada...Reno is the 115th largest metro in the US
Hawaii...Honolulu is the 53rd largest metro in the US
San Jose State...San Jose CA is the 31st largest metro in the US
Utah State...Logan, UT is the 304th largest metro in the US.
Finally, FCS programs that may be ready for promotion to the FBS if the right conference situation is available.
Villanova
Georgetown
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Tennessee Tech
Montana
Montana State
Sacramento State
UC Davis
Cal Poly
Portland State
New ACC--focus will be on men's basketball. And this will still be a beast of a basketball conference, this conference could still earn 5-6 NCAA bids and produce a #1 seed or two each year.
-Duke...
-North Carolina...
-Wake Forrest...
-Syracuse...
-Louisville...
-Memphis...
-Temple...
-Army (Football Only)
-Navy (Football Only)
-Villanova (Promote football to FCS, play at PGP park in Chester, PA).
-Georgetown (Basketball Only, but can become the 11th football school if they decide to promote football program. Can use FedEx field as a home stadium or partner with DC United for a new stadium).
-Seton Hall (Basketball Only)
-St. Johns (Basketball Only)
-Providence (Basketball Only)
Note: Marquette and dePaul join the Missouri Valley Conference.
New Continental Divide Conference to focus on being the 5th best football conference to begin with. They will hope to give the big 4 a run for their money.
West Division
Air Force
Boise State
BYU (Football Only--Rest of sports remain in WCC)
Fresno State
Hawaii (Football Only--Rest of sports remain in Big West)
Utah State
East Division
Central Florida
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
South Florida
Southern Mississippi
Perhaps, the conference will be two different conferences that combine for football and are two separate conferences for all other sports.
Western Non-football schools
CS Bakersfield
Denver
Seattle
Utah Valley
Eastern Non-Football Schools
UT Arlington
Oral Roberts
Replacements for C-USA
Appalachian State
Replacements for MWC
New Mexico State
Idaho
Cal Poly
IF MWC decides to go to 12...
Montana
Montana State
Left in the ACC...4 will be left.
-Duke University...
-University of North Carolina...
-Wake Forrest...
-University of Syracuse...
Left in the Big East...9 football members left
Louisville...
South Florida...
Central Florida...
Houston...
Southern Methodist...
Memphis...
Temple...
Boise State...
Navy...
FBS Independents...2 left
Brigham Young...
Army...
Also without a conference
Idaho
New Mexico State
Also available
Conference USA
Alabama Birmingham...Birmingham, AL is the 50th largest metro in the US.
East Carolina...Greenville, NC is the 220th largest metro in the US
Marshall...Huntington, WV is not part of a large metro area.
Southern Mississippi...Hattisburg, MS is part of the Biloxi, MS metro, the 185th largest in the US
Rice...See Houston
UTEP...El Paso, TX is the 65th largest metro in the US.
Tulane...New Orleans is the 46th largest metro in the US.
Tulsa...Tulsa is the 54th largest metro in the US.
UNC Charlotte...Charlotte is the 33rd largest metro in the US
FIU...see Miami
Louisiana Tech...Rushton, LA is not part of a large metro
Old Dominion...Norfolk, VA is the 36th largest metro in the US.
UTSA...San Antonio is the 24th largest metro in the US.
Mountain West Conference
Air Force...Colorado Springs, CO is the 81st largest metro in the US.
Colorado State...Fort Collins, CO is the 155th largest metro in the US. (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Denver metro.)
UNLV...Las Vegas, NV is the 30th largest metro in the US.
UNM...Albuquerque, NM is the 57th largest metro in the US.
Wyoming...Laramie, WY is not part of a large metro
Fresno State...Fresno, CA is the 55th largest metro in the US
Nevada...Reno is the 115th largest metro in the US
Hawaii...Honolulu is the 53rd largest metro in the US
San Jose State...San Jose CA is the 31st largest metro in the US
Utah State...Logan, UT is the 304th largest metro in the US.
Finally, FCS programs that may be ready for promotion to the FBS if the right conference situation is available.
Villanova
Georgetown
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Tennessee Tech
Montana
Montana State
Sacramento State
UC Davis
Cal Poly
Portland State
New ACC--focus will be on men's basketball. And this will still be a beast of a basketball conference, this conference could still earn 5-6 NCAA bids and produce a #1 seed or two each year.
-Duke...
-North Carolina...
-Wake Forrest...
-Syracuse...
-Louisville...
-Memphis...
-Temple...
-Army (Football Only)
-Navy (Football Only)
-Villanova (Promote football to FCS, play at PGP park in Chester, PA).
-Georgetown (Basketball Only, but can become the 11th football school if they decide to promote football program. Can use FedEx field as a home stadium or partner with DC United for a new stadium).
-Seton Hall (Basketball Only)
-St. Johns (Basketball Only)
-Providence (Basketball Only)
Note: Marquette and dePaul join the Missouri Valley Conference.
New Continental Divide Conference to focus on being the 5th best football conference to begin with. They will hope to give the big 4 a run for their money.
West Division
Air Force
Boise State
BYU (Football Only--Rest of sports remain in WCC)
Fresno State
Hawaii (Football Only--Rest of sports remain in Big West)
Utah State
East Division
Central Florida
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
South Florida
Southern Mississippi
Perhaps, the conference will be two different conferences that combine for football and are two separate conferences for all other sports.
Western Non-football schools
CS Bakersfield
Denver
Seattle
Utah Valley
Eastern Non-Football Schools
UT Arlington
Oral Roberts
Replacements for C-USA
Appalachian State
Replacements for MWC
New Mexico State
Idaho
Cal Poly
IF MWC decides to go to 12...
Montana
Montana State
Sunday, May 20, 2012
The Big 12 and SEC announced that their champions will play a bowl game. It is believed by some experts, like Dennis Dodd at CBS, that the Rose bowl between this new bowl game are setting themselves up to be the play-in games for the new national championship. This shuts out the ACC and Big East. This also, for now, shuts out BYU and Notre Dame and the service academies. This also shuts out powers like Boise State.
This is a big power grab for college football and college sports and some believe that it represents the doomsday scenario that many have predicted. Dodd, when appearing on KSL-Sports Beat this evening stated that he believes that the Big 12 will grab Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech/Miami and Notre Dame, and he believes that ND will reluctantly will accept membership in the Big 12.
Now, let's thing about the logic of this scenario for a moment. If the Big 10, PAC 12, Big 12 and SEC each expand to 16, you have 14 slots left to fill. You have a lot of schools jockying to become part of one of the Big 4 conferences. Who would get in and who would be left out?
Chances are, someone like Boston College, one of 2 FBS schools in the 10th largest Metro area in the country, may end up permanently outside of a chance to play for college football national championship. There are at least 7 congressional districts that are part of the Greater Boston area...that is enough to be half an entire committee of congress. Do you think Congress will be motivated enough to do something about it now?
That is hard to say. But the schools that will be taken to be part of the elite 64 will be those, if these conference commissioners are smart, that will cause the fewest political ripples. Therefore, I am listing those who are left to pluck by their metro size. A large metro that a school has to themselves not only means more local advertising dollars, but means more power in Congress. The more congressional seats these 4 power conferences pick up, the more likely any bill to stop this madness will fall upon the ears of apathetic representatives. This is why Boston College would get in, but BYU would be left out. Why San Diego State may get chosen over Boise State. (Read this who post before you get upset, please, Bronco fans. :-))
Here is a list of all of the college football powers, and their metro areas, that are currently on the outside looking in.
Left in the ACC...12 will be left.
Boston College...Boston is the 10th largest Metro in the US)
Duke University...Durham, NC (Raleigh/Durham) is the 47th largest Metro in the US and is shared with the University of North Carolina also of the ACC.
Georgia Tech...Atlanta, GA is the 9th largest Metro in the US, but shared with UGA of the SEC.
University of Maryland...College Park, MD is part of the Washington, DC Metro which is the 7th largest in the US...Shared with the University of Virginia also of the ACC and the US Naval Academy poised to join the Big East.
University of Miami (Maybe)...Coral Gables, FL near Miami, FL part of the 8th largest metro in the US and shared with FIU.
University of North Carolina...Chapel Hill, NC...See Duke, above
University of Virginia...Charlottesville, VA See Maryland, above
Wake Forrest...Winston-Salem, NC is in the Greensboro, NC metro and is the 71st largest metro in the US.
University of Pittsburgh...Pittsburgh is the 22nd largest metro in the US, but is shared with Penn State of the big 10.
University of Syracuse...Syracuse is the 80th largest metro in the US.
Left in the Big East
Cincinnati...Cincinnati is the 27th largest metro in the US.
Connecticut...which is near New York City, the largest metro in the US and also near the headquarters of the WWL, meaning ESPN.
Louisville...Louisville, KY is the 42nd largest metro in the US.
Rutgers...New Brunswick, NJ which is withing spitting distance of New York City.
South Florida...Tampa, FL is the 18th largest metro in the US
Central Florida...Orlando, FL is the 26th largest metro in the US
Houston...Houston is the 5th largest metro in the US, but this is shared with Texas A&M of the SEC and Rice University of Conference-USA.
Southern Methodist...Dallas, TX is the 4th largest metro in the US, but this is shared with TCU of the Big 12
Memphis...Memphis, TN is the 41st largest metro in the US.
Temple...Philadelphia, PA is the 6th largest metro in the US.
Boise State...Boise, ID is the 85th largest metro in the US.
San Diego State...San Diego, CA is the 17th largest metro in the US.
FBS Independents
Brigham Young...Provo, UT is the 97th largest metro in the US (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Salt Lake City metro.)
Army...West Point, NY is part of the New York Metro
Conference USA
Alabama Birmingham...Birmingham, AL is the 50th largest metro in the US.
East Carolina...Greenville, NC is the 220th largest metro in the US
Marshall...Huntington, WV is not part of a large metro area.
Southern Mississippi...Hattisburg, MS is part of the Biloxi, MS metro, the 185th largest in the US
Rice...See Houston
UTEP...El Paso, TX is the 65th largest metro in the US.
Tulane...New Orleans is the 46th largest metro in the US.
Tulsa...Tulsa is the 54th largest metro in the US.
UNC Charlotte...Charlotte is the 33rd largest metro in the US
FIU...see Miami
Louisiana Tech...Rushton, LA is not part of a large metro
Old Dominion...Norfolk, VA is the 36th largest metro in the US.
UTSA...San Antonio is the 24th largest metro in the US.
Mountain West Conference
Air Force...Colorado Springs, CO is the 81st largest metro in the US.
Colorado State...Fort Collins, CO is the 155th largest metro in the US. (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Denver metro.)
UNLV...Las Vegas, NV is the 30th largest metro in the US.
UNM...Albuquerque, NM is the 57th largest metro in the US.
Wyoming...Laramie, WY is not part of a large metro
Fresno State...Fresno, CA is the 55th largest metro in the US
Nevada...Reno is the 115th largest metro in the US
Hawaii...Honolulu is the 53rd largest metro in the US
San Jose State...San Jose CA is the 31st largest metro in the US
Utah State...Logan, UT is the 304th largest metro in the US.
I am not going to list the Sun Belt Conference, the MAC or the two schools remaining in the WAC because I do not consider any of these school to be serious contenders for one of the 14 remaining elite-64 schools. Looking at metro size, and when I say that, I mean political clout...here is who the last 14 may be.
SEC--2 openings left
Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech
Big 12--Assuming they take Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame--but lose Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State but not Texas Tech. 5 Openings left
Maryland
Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
Tulane
Big 10--4 openings left
Rutgers
UConn
Pittsburgh
Boston College
PAC-12--4 openings left
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
San Diego State
So, now BSU fans can write me upsetting emails. But before you do, remember, this is based upon market size and political power and money. Not upon who really plays the best football, or who has the best schools or who turns out the best young men or tradition. There will be complaints and maybe even congressional hearings, but again I emphasize that the powers that be in college football want this to fall upon apathetic ears in Congress. I give you an 85% chance that no bill to stop this would even make it out of committee in Congress.
Why San Diego State...to keep the California Legislature and the California congressional delegation happy.
Why Tulane...to keep the New Orleans Congressional Delegation happy.
Yes, I know that San Diego State would become the Vanderbilt of the PAC-12 conference. You do not need to spit your ire on me for that. I know that I have just upset 80% of my readers. It's the reality of College Football right now.
This is a big power grab for college football and college sports and some believe that it represents the doomsday scenario that many have predicted. Dodd, when appearing on KSL-Sports Beat this evening stated that he believes that the Big 12 will grab Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech/Miami and Notre Dame, and he believes that ND will reluctantly will accept membership in the Big 12.
Now, let's thing about the logic of this scenario for a moment. If the Big 10, PAC 12, Big 12 and SEC each expand to 16, you have 14 slots left to fill. You have a lot of schools jockying to become part of one of the Big 4 conferences. Who would get in and who would be left out?
Chances are, someone like Boston College, one of 2 FBS schools in the 10th largest Metro area in the country, may end up permanently outside of a chance to play for college football national championship. There are at least 7 congressional districts that are part of the Greater Boston area...that is enough to be half an entire committee of congress. Do you think Congress will be motivated enough to do something about it now?
That is hard to say. But the schools that will be taken to be part of the elite 64 will be those, if these conference commissioners are smart, that will cause the fewest political ripples. Therefore, I am listing those who are left to pluck by their metro size. A large metro that a school has to themselves not only means more local advertising dollars, but means more power in Congress. The more congressional seats these 4 power conferences pick up, the more likely any bill to stop this madness will fall upon the ears of apathetic representatives. This is why Boston College would get in, but BYU would be left out. Why San Diego State may get chosen over Boise State. (Read this who post before you get upset, please, Bronco fans. :-))
Here is a list of all of the college football powers, and their metro areas, that are currently on the outside looking in.
Left in the ACC...12 will be left.
Boston College...Boston is the 10th largest Metro in the US)
Duke University...Durham, NC (Raleigh/Durham) is the 47th largest Metro in the US and is shared with the University of North Carolina also of the ACC.
Georgia Tech...Atlanta, GA is the 9th largest Metro in the US, but shared with UGA of the SEC.
University of Maryland...College Park, MD is part of the Washington, DC Metro which is the 7th largest in the US...Shared with the University of Virginia also of the ACC and the US Naval Academy poised to join the Big East.
University of Miami (Maybe)...Coral Gables, FL near Miami, FL part of the 8th largest metro in the US and shared with FIU.
University of North Carolina...Chapel Hill, NC...See Duke, above
University of Virginia...Charlottesville, VA See Maryland, above
Wake Forrest...Winston-Salem, NC is in the Greensboro, NC metro and is the 71st largest metro in the US.
University of Pittsburgh...Pittsburgh is the 22nd largest metro in the US, but is shared with Penn State of the big 10.
University of Syracuse...Syracuse is the 80th largest metro in the US.
Left in the Big East
Cincinnati...Cincinnati is the 27th largest metro in the US.
Connecticut...which is near New York City, the largest metro in the US and also near the headquarters of the WWL, meaning ESPN.
Louisville...Louisville, KY is the 42nd largest metro in the US.
Rutgers...New Brunswick, NJ which is withing spitting distance of New York City.
South Florida...Tampa, FL is the 18th largest metro in the US
Central Florida...Orlando, FL is the 26th largest metro in the US
Houston...Houston is the 5th largest metro in the US, but this is shared with Texas A&M of the SEC and Rice University of Conference-USA.
Southern Methodist...Dallas, TX is the 4th largest metro in the US, but this is shared with TCU of the Big 12
Memphis...Memphis, TN is the 41st largest metro in the US.
Temple...Philadelphia, PA is the 6th largest metro in the US.
Boise State...Boise, ID is the 85th largest metro in the US.
San Diego State...San Diego, CA is the 17th largest metro in the US.
FBS Independents
Brigham Young...Provo, UT is the 97th largest metro in the US (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Salt Lake City metro.)
Army...West Point, NY is part of the New York Metro
Conference USA
Alabama Birmingham...Birmingham, AL is the 50th largest metro in the US.
East Carolina...Greenville, NC is the 220th largest metro in the US
Marshall...Huntington, WV is not part of a large metro area.
Southern Mississippi...Hattisburg, MS is part of the Biloxi, MS metro, the 185th largest in the US
Rice...See Houston
UTEP...El Paso, TX is the 65th largest metro in the US.
Tulane...New Orleans is the 46th largest metro in the US.
Tulsa...Tulsa is the 54th largest metro in the US.
UNC Charlotte...Charlotte is the 33rd largest metro in the US
FIU...see Miami
Louisiana Tech...Rushton, LA is not part of a large metro
Old Dominion...Norfolk, VA is the 36th largest metro in the US.
UTSA...San Antonio is the 24th largest metro in the US.
Mountain West Conference
Air Force...Colorado Springs, CO is the 81st largest metro in the US.
Colorado State...Fort Collins, CO is the 155th largest metro in the US. (As of the 2010 census, no longer considered part of the Denver metro.)
UNLV...Las Vegas, NV is the 30th largest metro in the US.
UNM...Albuquerque, NM is the 57th largest metro in the US.
Wyoming...Laramie, WY is not part of a large metro
Fresno State...Fresno, CA is the 55th largest metro in the US
Nevada...Reno is the 115th largest metro in the US
Hawaii...Honolulu is the 53rd largest metro in the US
San Jose State...San Jose CA is the 31st largest metro in the US
Utah State...Logan, UT is the 304th largest metro in the US.
I am not going to list the Sun Belt Conference, the MAC or the two schools remaining in the WAC because I do not consider any of these school to be serious contenders for one of the 14 remaining elite-64 schools. Looking at metro size, and when I say that, I mean political clout...here is who the last 14 may be.
SEC--2 openings left
Miami (FL)
Georgia Tech
Big 12--Assuming they take Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame--but lose Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State but not Texas Tech. 5 Openings left
Maryland
Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
Tulane
Big 10--4 openings left
Rutgers
UConn
Pittsburgh
Boston College
PAC-12--4 openings left
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
San Diego State
So, now BSU fans can write me upsetting emails. But before you do, remember, this is based upon market size and political power and money. Not upon who really plays the best football, or who has the best schools or who turns out the best young men or tradition. There will be complaints and maybe even congressional hearings, but again I emphasize that the powers that be in college football want this to fall upon apathetic ears in Congress. I give you an 85% chance that no bill to stop this would even make it out of committee in Congress.
Why San Diego State...to keep the California Legislature and the California congressional delegation happy.
Why Tulane...to keep the New Orleans Congressional Delegation happy.
Yes, I know that San Diego State would become the Vanderbilt of the PAC-12 conference. You do not need to spit your ire on me for that. I know that I have just upset 80% of my readers. It's the reality of College Football right now.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Where will the Mountain West go Next?
The dominoes of conference realignment appear to be falling again. Right now it appears that Boise State is preparing to leave the Big East at the altar and return to the MWC. And the Big 12 appears to poised to raid the ACC to get some southern cooking in the conference. If this happens, the ACC will likely raid the Big East again, causing that conference to fall apart. That would leave Houston, SMU and Memphis without a conference. Who knows if the MWC is safe from further expansion from other conferences. The MWC seems vulnerable to lose some schools from the east.
Without the WAC to raid, where will the MWC go for new members. Here is a capsule of who is available and what it will take to get them into the MWC.
Idaho and New Mexico Sate
Idaho has two problems that will keep them forever from the MWC. The first is their market, which is something they can do little about. The second are their facilities. They need a comitment to improve their facilities to really get a good look from the MWC. Idaho will need to find a way to get a new bigger stadium to get a serious look from the MWC.
New Mexico State came close to getting into the MWC last time, and their sister campus in Albuquerque fought long and hard for the Aggies. There are two main problems that NMSU has that make the MWC shudder. One is their market and the other is their lack of academic standing. For years, NMSU has not made the USNWR rankings. This has to change. NMSU needs to make a commitment to improving academic programs.
Montana and Montana State
Montana and Montana State have the facilities, but they do not sponsor enough sports to move to the FBS. This will take a financial commitment. But otherwise, these schools are a good fit for the MWC.
Portland State
Portland State needs to reinstate sports programs they have canceled over the years. They have a nice stadium for their football programs to call home. If Stott Center is too small for the MWC, PSU could lease the old Veterans Memorial Colosseum for men's basketball. PSU is up to 14 sports programs and could add baseball, swimming and/or gymnastics to compete in the MWC. They are in a city that is 81 miles from the nearest FBS school and should have no trouble competing for fans.
Sacramento State/UC Davis
Sacramento State has the facilities to compete in the MWC and enough sports, where UC Davis only lacks a football stadium. The Kings are about to abandon their arena for the greener (money-wise) pastures of Anaheim. The Aggies and the Hornets men's programs could even lease the arena together. Both have enough sports programs and UC Davis is one of the best academic programs in the west outside of the PAC-12.
How would sharing the old Arco work for UC Davis and Sac Sate? UC Davis would get the arena on Thursday and Saturday Afternoon. Sac State would get the arena on Saturday night and Monday. One team comes to town and plays UCD on Thrusday and Sac State on Saturday. The other team would play UCD on Saturday and Sac State on Monday.
About the Sacramento Kings moving...there was a deal for a new arena in Sacramento, but the owners rejected it. There is a real nice documentary about it here. Watch it until the end.
Cal Poly
San Louis Obisbo would be a nice place for an annual bowl game. And all that this school needs to do for FBS inclusion is to expand their football stadium.
Without the WAC to raid, where will the MWC go for new members. Here is a capsule of who is available and what it will take to get them into the MWC.
Idaho and New Mexico Sate
Idaho has two problems that will keep them forever from the MWC. The first is their market, which is something they can do little about. The second are their facilities. They need a comitment to improve their facilities to really get a good look from the MWC. Idaho will need to find a way to get a new bigger stadium to get a serious look from the MWC.
New Mexico State came close to getting into the MWC last time, and their sister campus in Albuquerque fought long and hard for the Aggies. There are two main problems that NMSU has that make the MWC shudder. One is their market and the other is their lack of academic standing. For years, NMSU has not made the USNWR rankings. This has to change. NMSU needs to make a commitment to improving academic programs.
Montana and Montana State
Montana and Montana State have the facilities, but they do not sponsor enough sports to move to the FBS. This will take a financial commitment. But otherwise, these schools are a good fit for the MWC.
Portland State
Portland State needs to reinstate sports programs they have canceled over the years. They have a nice stadium for their football programs to call home. If Stott Center is too small for the MWC, PSU could lease the old Veterans Memorial Colosseum for men's basketball. PSU is up to 14 sports programs and could add baseball, swimming and/or gymnastics to compete in the MWC. They are in a city that is 81 miles from the nearest FBS school and should have no trouble competing for fans.
Sacramento State/UC Davis
Sacramento State has the facilities to compete in the MWC and enough sports, where UC Davis only lacks a football stadium. The Kings are about to abandon their arena for the greener (money-wise) pastures of Anaheim. The Aggies and the Hornets men's programs could even lease the arena together. Both have enough sports programs and UC Davis is one of the best academic programs in the west outside of the PAC-12.
How would sharing the old Arco work for UC Davis and Sac Sate? UC Davis would get the arena on Thursday and Saturday Afternoon. Sac State would get the arena on Saturday night and Monday. One team comes to town and plays UCD on Thrusday and Sac State on Saturday. The other team would play UCD on Saturday and Sac State on Monday.
About the Sacramento Kings moving...there was a deal for a new arena in Sacramento, but the owners rejected it. There is a real nice documentary about it here. Watch it until the end.
Cal Poly
San Louis Obisbo would be a nice place for an annual bowl game. And all that this school needs to do for FBS inclusion is to expand their football stadium.
Sunday, May 13, 2012
Conference Realignment...The Big Sky so far Untouched.
Updated July 15, 2012
The is one in a series of posts that examines the viability of Idaho remaining at the FBS level. One assumption is that the Big Sky Conference will remain untouched by continued conference expansion. The purpose of this post is to point out that this is unlikely. This was changed after further research into the sports programs of Portland State.
The WAC is finished, but conference realignment is not. Idaho may remain an FBS team after all. So far, the Big Sky Conference has remained untouched by the conference realignment mess, but do not expect that to remain the case before the dust settles.
Montana, Montana State, UC Davis, Cal Poly, Portland State and Sacramento State may remain targets of FBS conferences looking for schools willing to move up to the FBS level. Here are some scenarios that could touch the Big Sky Conference. In any scenario where the Mountain West Conference is raided further, the MWC is likely now, with the WAC gone, will look to the Big Sky Conference for replacements.
1. Boise State/Big 12 cause the Big East to collapse. What has caused this problem is the collapse of the WAC. BSU was going to place their non-football sports in the august conference, but if one more school leaves and there is not any further expansion, there will not be a WAC to for them to place their Olympic sports. Reportedly, Boise State is now in negotiations with the Big West Conference to put their non-football programs there.
Another possibility is that the Big East loses Cincinnati and Louisville to the Big 12 or that they lose Rutgers and UConn to the ACC in a 16-team expansion of that conference. The Big East is likely to look to either C-USA or to the MWC to remain viable. The reason I say this is because New Mexico and Wyoming have basketball programs that are stronger than East Carolina, Marshall, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa or Southern Mississippi, those schools still in Conference USA that would likely be under consideration. The Big East is a basketball conference first, and they would rather look for programs that keep their basketball prowess. With San Diego state in tow, even UNLV becomes a possibility.
Another possibility is that the football members of the Big East decide not to remain together. The Eastern half...whatever remains...would raid C-USA, the MAC and the CAA for membership (U Mass, Marshall, Toledo, Ohio, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Delaware, Rhode Island, JMU for starters), where the western half could add some of the other western members of C-USA and maybe take on some members of the Mountain West. Think about that...Boise State, SMU, Houston, Memphis and San Diego State...are they not a better core for a new conference than those left in the MWC or C-USA? Would they not easily draw out Fresno State, New Mexico, Nevada and UNLV? Perhaps Hawaii as well? Perhaps Tulsa, UTEP, Rice and Tulane could be considered as well. Maybe they could even lure BYU out of independence.
In this scenario, the core of the MWC: Air Force, Colorado State and Wyoming, represent stability that the WAC never had in it's last days.
2. BYU is spurned by the Big 12, gives up on independence and forms a new conference. BYU does not have the WAC to fall back on, which was likely part of the plan when BYU withdrew from the MWC. Of course Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii were part of the WAC back then. BYU is not likely to go back to the MWC as there is still enough bad blood between BYU and some remaining MWC members to block BYU's inclusion. (Although a Wyoming alum in my family tells me that Wyoming and BYU are mending fences.) And even though there is no mtn, the TV situation in the MWC is not settled and still not to the liking of the BYU administration.
But who would join BYU in a new venture? Look to those 5 western members of the Big East. Also look at Hawaii and Utah State, those who appear on BYU's schedule every season.
I do not think that the Mountain West is in danger of folding as I once did, as long as they can keep a core like Colorado State and Wyoming. The MWC and C-USA are linked, and in reality, the MWC is still better off than the MWC. They could still lure UTEP and perhaps Rice and Tulsa away if C-USA is again raided from the east and loses East Carolina and Southern Mississippi. The only "mid-major" conference that is more viable than the MWC right now is probably the MAC. The Sun Belt is still the main target of C-USA should they need more expansion.
The MWC however, does not have a lot of options for expansion among current FBS programs. If they keep Hawaii, then what is really the reality of adding Tulsa, Rice or Tulane. Travel may not be an issue for a conference with Big East-like revenue, but it is an issue for the MWC. Traveling from Honolulu to New Orleans could eat up a travel budget quickly, even if it is just for football. That kind of expansion could push Hawaii into independence, as this was the main reason Hawaii left the WAC.
This is just the kind of scenario Idaho and New Mexico State are hoping for. After Idaho and New Mexico State, where does the MWC go? UTEP is the only other school in the MWC footprint at the FCS level. After these options are exhausted, then it will be time to raid the Big Sky Conference.
Again, the candidates are Montana and Montana State because of their recent successes at the FCS level, followed by the bigger-market programs in the Big Sky: Portland State, Sacramento State, UC Davis and Cal Poly. The last three on the radar are likely Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona and Weber State. And this is the likely order.
Weber State has the facilities, but there are already 3 FBS programs in Utah, and it will be 15-20 years before the state will have the population to support another. Utah really needs a population of 3.6 million before WSU would be viable as an FBS program...it takes about 900,000 to support a modern FBS program. When you think about it, Utah State struggled until Utah's population hit 2.7 million a couple of years ago. There are now enough local recruits for BYU, Utah and Utah State. That was not the case before. And when Utah State was successful in the 1970s and 1980s, either BYU or Utah was struggling. At the current rate of growth, Utah will hit that mark in 2024-2027. Weber State will succeed as an FBS program once BYU, Utah and Utah State have their choice of local recruits and there are still enough for Weber. Look for the Weber program, however, to get stronger at the FCS level over the next few years (and SUU as well) and more quality local recruits get passed over by the existing FBS programs in Utah.
Northern Arizona lives in a state that could support another FBS program, but they are isolated from the population centers in their state. If they were 100 miles closer to Phoenix, they would have an easier time getting crowds to their games, and getting quality players from the greater Phoenix metro. But that location can't be helped. Personally, I think being a stone's throw from the Grand Canyon and Las Vegas is not being used enough by the NAU marketing department, but that is just me. "Come see the game, get away for the weekend" could be a good marketing slogan for the Jacks, but they would need some local travel agency to create packages to make it work. But Flagstaff and the rest of Northern Arizona may see a mini-boom as people continue to work away from the office and can be productive working at home. The quality of recruits into NAU may improve in the future. NAU is closer to Las Vegas than they are to Phoenix. As Las Vegas grows, NAU becomes a viable alternative to UNLV.
Eastern Washington is in a similar situation to Northern Arizona, except that they are close to Spokane. However, it is only a medium-sized market...about 600,000 or so, but growing. EWU also has a small student-body, which translates to a small alumni base. However, that has not been a reason for SMU, Rice and Tulsa to reclassify to the FCS. EWU will continue to be a strong FCS program in the coming years. Perhaps the northern Idado, eastern Washington area will see a population mini-boom similar to what is expected in Flagstaff as people who are not tied to commuting everyday to the office begin to leave Portland and Seattle for smaller communities and fewer headaches of city life.
UC Davis and Cal Poly have the sports programs and the academic reputation and the market, but do not have the facilities and their state is broke. They are good options, but not immediate ones. If either school could come up with the money to expand their stadia, then they should rocket to the top of the list. But that would have to be a completely private venture as California has been hit rather hard by the current economic recession as slow recovery. Should fortunes change in the near future, Cal-Poly and UC Davis jump ahead of Montana, Montana State and Portland State. Currently, these programs are good alternatives for young men who may not be quite good enough for the NFL and not quite smart enough or rich enough for Harvard. Can't think of a better school to get a good education than one of these two schools at any level that participates in College Football.
Sacramento State has the sports programs and the facilities, but not the recent performance. Sac State would likely end up in the cellar of the MWC in all sports for a long time if they were to move up. Sacramento State needs to work on improving their on the field performance, especially in football and basketball, before they look at jumping to the next level. If they improve their performance, they will find that it will be easier to draw crowds. Look at how well the Sacramento Kings and Minor League teams are supported in Sac-town. If the Hornets could be consistent winners in the field, they would be consistent winners at the gate and hard for the MWC to pass up.
Portland State has the market and the facilities and may be added to a stable FBS conference ahead of the Montana schools. The reason is that the MWC may only have one opening and Montana and Montana State would probably come in as a pair. Therefore, if the MWC needs only one school from the Big Sky, don't be surprised if it is Portland State instead of Montana.
Montana and Montana State already have the facilities and only need to add the women's sports programs for title IX. This is the excuse that they used to spurn the WAC, and it is a good one. But they may find if they move up, increased football revenues could cover that expense. Montana, as a state, has the population to support 1 FBS program, but not 2. Montana is just shy of 1 million in population. Their state's annual growth rate is about 1% per year. Without a major population boom, it will be decades before Montana has enough people to support 2 FBS programs, before the state adds another 800,000 people (about 5 cities the size of Billings, the largest city in Montana). That does stop West Virginia, for example; but look at how much Marshall has struggled recently? If both Montana schools join the WAC, one will likely struggle for a long time. The only saving grace? BYU-Idaho does not have sports and Montana State can also claim northeastern Idaho as their market. And Northern Wyoming has doesn't have much to speak of. Montana State has a large circle of land with potential recruits nearly all to themselves. It's not a densley populated area, but another 100,000 people live within 200 miles of Bozeman outside the state of Montana. And the closest large university to Montana State does not have a sports program. If there is another population boom, perhaps due to new energy development, maybe both schools can succeed at the higher level. They are certainly tearing up the FCS right now.
The is one in a series of posts that examines the viability of Idaho remaining at the FBS level. One assumption is that the Big Sky Conference will remain untouched by continued conference expansion. The purpose of this post is to point out that this is unlikely. This was changed after further research into the sports programs of Portland State.
The WAC is finished, but conference realignment is not. Idaho may remain an FBS team after all. So far, the Big Sky Conference has remained untouched by the conference realignment mess, but do not expect that to remain the case before the dust settles.
Montana, Montana State, UC Davis, Cal Poly, Portland State and Sacramento State may remain targets of FBS conferences looking for schools willing to move up to the FBS level. Here are some scenarios that could touch the Big Sky Conference. In any scenario where the Mountain West Conference is raided further, the MWC is likely now, with the WAC gone, will look to the Big Sky Conference for replacements.
1. Boise State/Big 12 cause the Big East to collapse. What has caused this problem is the collapse of the WAC. BSU was going to place their non-football sports in the august conference, but if one more school leaves and there is not any further expansion, there will not be a WAC to for them to place their Olympic sports. Reportedly, Boise State is now in negotiations with the Big West Conference to put their non-football programs there.
Another possibility is that the Big East loses Cincinnati and Louisville to the Big 12 or that they lose Rutgers and UConn to the ACC in a 16-team expansion of that conference. The Big East is likely to look to either C-USA or to the MWC to remain viable. The reason I say this is because New Mexico and Wyoming have basketball programs that are stronger than East Carolina, Marshall, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa or Southern Mississippi, those schools still in Conference USA that would likely be under consideration. The Big East is a basketball conference first, and they would rather look for programs that keep their basketball prowess. With San Diego state in tow, even UNLV becomes a possibility.
Another possibility is that the football members of the Big East decide not to remain together. The Eastern half...whatever remains...would raid C-USA, the MAC and the CAA for membership (U Mass, Marshall, Toledo, Ohio, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Delaware, Rhode Island, JMU for starters), where the western half could add some of the other western members of C-USA and maybe take on some members of the Mountain West. Think about that...Boise State, SMU, Houston, Memphis and San Diego State...are they not a better core for a new conference than those left in the MWC or C-USA? Would they not easily draw out Fresno State, New Mexico, Nevada and UNLV? Perhaps Hawaii as well? Perhaps Tulsa, UTEP, Rice and Tulane could be considered as well. Maybe they could even lure BYU out of independence.
In this scenario, the core of the MWC: Air Force, Colorado State and Wyoming, represent stability that the WAC never had in it's last days.
2. BYU is spurned by the Big 12, gives up on independence and forms a new conference. BYU does not have the WAC to fall back on, which was likely part of the plan when BYU withdrew from the MWC. Of course Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii were part of the WAC back then. BYU is not likely to go back to the MWC as there is still enough bad blood between BYU and some remaining MWC members to block BYU's inclusion. (Although a Wyoming alum in my family tells me that Wyoming and BYU are mending fences.) And even though there is no mtn, the TV situation in the MWC is not settled and still not to the liking of the BYU administration.
But who would join BYU in a new venture? Look to those 5 western members of the Big East. Also look at Hawaii and Utah State, those who appear on BYU's schedule every season.
I do not think that the Mountain West is in danger of folding as I once did, as long as they can keep a core like Colorado State and Wyoming. The MWC and C-USA are linked, and in reality, the MWC is still better off than the MWC. They could still lure UTEP and perhaps Rice and Tulsa away if C-USA is again raided from the east and loses East Carolina and Southern Mississippi. The only "mid-major" conference that is more viable than the MWC right now is probably the MAC. The Sun Belt is still the main target of C-USA should they need more expansion.
The MWC however, does not have a lot of options for expansion among current FBS programs. If they keep Hawaii, then what is really the reality of adding Tulsa, Rice or Tulane. Travel may not be an issue for a conference with Big East-like revenue, but it is an issue for the MWC. Traveling from Honolulu to New Orleans could eat up a travel budget quickly, even if it is just for football. That kind of expansion could push Hawaii into independence, as this was the main reason Hawaii left the WAC.
This is just the kind of scenario Idaho and New Mexico State are hoping for. After Idaho and New Mexico State, where does the MWC go? UTEP is the only other school in the MWC footprint at the FCS level. After these options are exhausted, then it will be time to raid the Big Sky Conference.
Again, the candidates are Montana and Montana State because of their recent successes at the FCS level, followed by the bigger-market programs in the Big Sky: Portland State, Sacramento State, UC Davis and Cal Poly. The last three on the radar are likely Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona and Weber State. And this is the likely order.
Weber State has the facilities, but there are already 3 FBS programs in Utah, and it will be 15-20 years before the state will have the population to support another. Utah really needs a population of 3.6 million before WSU would be viable as an FBS program...it takes about 900,000 to support a modern FBS program. When you think about it, Utah State struggled until Utah's population hit 2.7 million a couple of years ago. There are now enough local recruits for BYU, Utah and Utah State. That was not the case before. And when Utah State was successful in the 1970s and 1980s, either BYU or Utah was struggling. At the current rate of growth, Utah will hit that mark in 2024-2027. Weber State will succeed as an FBS program once BYU, Utah and Utah State have their choice of local recruits and there are still enough for Weber. Look for the Weber program, however, to get stronger at the FCS level over the next few years (and SUU as well) and more quality local recruits get passed over by the existing FBS programs in Utah.
Northern Arizona lives in a state that could support another FBS program, but they are isolated from the population centers in their state. If they were 100 miles closer to Phoenix, they would have an easier time getting crowds to their games, and getting quality players from the greater Phoenix metro. But that location can't be helped. Personally, I think being a stone's throw from the Grand Canyon and Las Vegas is not being used enough by the NAU marketing department, but that is just me. "Come see the game, get away for the weekend" could be a good marketing slogan for the Jacks, but they would need some local travel agency to create packages to make it work. But Flagstaff and the rest of Northern Arizona may see a mini-boom as people continue to work away from the office and can be productive working at home. The quality of recruits into NAU may improve in the future. NAU is closer to Las Vegas than they are to Phoenix. As Las Vegas grows, NAU becomes a viable alternative to UNLV.
Eastern Washington is in a similar situation to Northern Arizona, except that they are close to Spokane. However, it is only a medium-sized market...about 600,000 or so, but growing. EWU also has a small student-body, which translates to a small alumni base. However, that has not been a reason for SMU, Rice and Tulsa to reclassify to the FCS. EWU will continue to be a strong FCS program in the coming years. Perhaps the northern Idado, eastern Washington area will see a population mini-boom similar to what is expected in Flagstaff as people who are not tied to commuting everyday to the office begin to leave Portland and Seattle for smaller communities and fewer headaches of city life.
UC Davis and Cal Poly have the sports programs and the academic reputation and the market, but do not have the facilities and their state is broke. They are good options, but not immediate ones. If either school could come up with the money to expand their stadia, then they should rocket to the top of the list. But that would have to be a completely private venture as California has been hit rather hard by the current economic recession as slow recovery. Should fortunes change in the near future, Cal-Poly and UC Davis jump ahead of Montana, Montana State and Portland State. Currently, these programs are good alternatives for young men who may not be quite good enough for the NFL and not quite smart enough or rich enough for Harvard. Can't think of a better school to get a good education than one of these two schools at any level that participates in College Football.
Sacramento State has the sports programs and the facilities, but not the recent performance. Sac State would likely end up in the cellar of the MWC in all sports for a long time if they were to move up. Sacramento State needs to work on improving their on the field performance, especially in football and basketball, before they look at jumping to the next level. If they improve their performance, they will find that it will be easier to draw crowds. Look at how well the Sacramento Kings and Minor League teams are supported in Sac-town. If the Hornets could be consistent winners in the field, they would be consistent winners at the gate and hard for the MWC to pass up.
Portland State has the market and the facilities and may be added to a stable FBS conference ahead of the Montana schools. The reason is that the MWC may only have one opening and Montana and Montana State would probably come in as a pair. Therefore, if the MWC needs only one school from the Big Sky, don't be surprised if it is Portland State instead of Montana.
Montana and Montana State already have the facilities and only need to add the women's sports programs for title IX. This is the excuse that they used to spurn the WAC, and it is a good one. But they may find if they move up, increased football revenues could cover that expense. Montana, as a state, has the population to support 1 FBS program, but not 2. Montana is just shy of 1 million in population. Their state's annual growth rate is about 1% per year. Without a major population boom, it will be decades before Montana has enough people to support 2 FBS programs, before the state adds another 800,000 people (about 5 cities the size of Billings, the largest city in Montana). That does stop West Virginia, for example; but look at how much Marshall has struggled recently? If both Montana schools join the WAC, one will likely struggle for a long time. The only saving grace? BYU-Idaho does not have sports and Montana State can also claim northeastern Idaho as their market. And Northern Wyoming has doesn't have much to speak of. Montana State has a large circle of land with potential recruits nearly all to themselves. It's not a densley populated area, but another 100,000 people live within 200 miles of Bozeman outside the state of Montana. And the closest large university to Montana State does not have a sports program. If there is another population boom, perhaps due to new energy development, maybe both schools can succeed at the higher level. They are certainly tearing up the FCS right now.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
The WAC Plan...and it's reality...conference expansion.
I've seen a recent report, and this should interest BYU fans who read this blog, that a new plan has emerged for Big 12. Notre Dame may join the Big 12 for all sports except football. Notre Dame prefers to remain independent in Football.
BYU fans may like this. Who would balance out the Big 12 in football? BYU, of course. The Cougars would compete in the Big 12 in football, have BCS access, and have their other sports in the WCC. The Sunday play issue would not come into play. For Notre Dame and Cougar fans, they may both get what they want.
How does this affect what is left of the WAC? It comes down to Denver. It is no secret that Denver prefers the all-private WCC as a conference home. The WCC, however, may not wish to expand beyond 10 schools. ESPN reported yesterday that Denver is trying to convince the remaining WAC members to remain together in Basketball and snatch up Utah Valley and CS Bakersfield. That would bring the WAC to 7 members and they could keep their automatic NCAA bid.
This would be good news for the Wolverine fans who won the Great West Conference Championship this last season, but had to settle for the CBI tournament. Their baseball team is tearing it up this year, but no automatic bid to the NCAA baseball tournament, however, I do not see the NCAA passing up on the Wolverines in baseball this season.
However, for this to work, the WAC would probably need to convince at least one more school to come on board in case the Big East fails and Boise State decides to return to the Mountain West Conference. Due to the problems the WAC has had with stability, the only thing that the WAC has to offer right now is the automatic bid. The WAC, therefore, is probably not going to be able to talk anyone out of the Summit League or the Southland Conference, even if there is a better geographical fit in the WAC.
An 8th member may provide stability to the WAC. Texas Pan-American is with Utah Valley in the Great West, and may be interested in moving just to ensure a good season will result in a NCAA tournament bid. There is also an eastern orientation in what is now the Great West Conference. UTPA may find it easier to travel to Seattle than to travel to Howard (Washington DC) or New Jersey Tech.
Otherwise, the WAC may want to approach a Division II school looking to upgrade. UC San Diego or Cal State San Bernardino may be looking for a Division I home. They may prefer the Big West to the WAC, but the Big West, like with CS Bakersfield, may not be interested. Maybe Alaska Anchorage and Alaska Fairbanks are interested in Division I. How about Western Washington or Simon Fraser? Perhaps the WAC should expand well beyond 8 schools to ensure stability and keep others from bolting.
The question then remains, what about Idaho and New Mexico State and their football programs? My hunch is that Idaho will join the Big Sky for football or compete as an FCS independent. New Mexico State may become a football-only member of the Sun Belt Conference or a football-only member of the Southland Conference.
The next step for the WAC is to ensure that they will have a stable basketball conference and recognize that football is perhaps a lost cause at best at least for the present.
ESPN article
Big 12 expansion article
BYU fans may like this. Who would balance out the Big 12 in football? BYU, of course. The Cougars would compete in the Big 12 in football, have BCS access, and have their other sports in the WCC. The Sunday play issue would not come into play. For Notre Dame and Cougar fans, they may both get what they want.
How does this affect what is left of the WAC? It comes down to Denver. It is no secret that Denver prefers the all-private WCC as a conference home. The WCC, however, may not wish to expand beyond 10 schools. ESPN reported yesterday that Denver is trying to convince the remaining WAC members to remain together in Basketball and snatch up Utah Valley and CS Bakersfield. That would bring the WAC to 7 members and they could keep their automatic NCAA bid.
This would be good news for the Wolverine fans who won the Great West Conference Championship this last season, but had to settle for the CBI tournament. Their baseball team is tearing it up this year, but no automatic bid to the NCAA baseball tournament, however, I do not see the NCAA passing up on the Wolverines in baseball this season.
However, for this to work, the WAC would probably need to convince at least one more school to come on board in case the Big East fails and Boise State decides to return to the Mountain West Conference. Due to the problems the WAC has had with stability, the only thing that the WAC has to offer right now is the automatic bid. The WAC, therefore, is probably not going to be able to talk anyone out of the Summit League or the Southland Conference, even if there is a better geographical fit in the WAC.
An 8th member may provide stability to the WAC. Texas Pan-American is with Utah Valley in the Great West, and may be interested in moving just to ensure a good season will result in a NCAA tournament bid. There is also an eastern orientation in what is now the Great West Conference. UTPA may find it easier to travel to Seattle than to travel to Howard (Washington DC) or New Jersey Tech.
Otherwise, the WAC may want to approach a Division II school looking to upgrade. UC San Diego or Cal State San Bernardino may be looking for a Division I home. They may prefer the Big West to the WAC, but the Big West, like with CS Bakersfield, may not be interested. Maybe Alaska Anchorage and Alaska Fairbanks are interested in Division I. How about Western Washington or Simon Fraser? Perhaps the WAC should expand well beyond 8 schools to ensure stability and keep others from bolting.
The question then remains, what about Idaho and New Mexico State and their football programs? My hunch is that Idaho will join the Big Sky for football or compete as an FCS independent. New Mexico State may become a football-only member of the Sun Belt Conference or a football-only member of the Southland Conference.
The next step for the WAC is to ensure that they will have a stable basketball conference and recognize that football is perhaps a lost cause at best at least for the present.
ESPN article
Big 12 expansion article
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
What will happen to Idaho if they drop?
According to the Idaho Statesman, the Big Sky Conference and Idaho are now talking. Doug Fullerton, the BSC commissioner, says that the FCS is a more stable financial situation for Idaho than remaining in the FBS. On that point, he is a little delusional. Here is why.
1. There is no TV money for football in the Big Sky Conference. There will be no games on ESPN-U. There will be no games every year at BYU. There will be "body bag" games at big time FBS schools, but the fee will be cut in half. Instead of 1 million per game, it will be 500,000. Idaho will face a loss of 1.5 to 3 million per year in football. Instead of pulling in around 7 million in football every year, it will be around 3.5 to 5 million per year.
2. The loss in revenue will be made up by cutting other sports. At Idaho, it will likely mean the loss of men's golf and women's swimming...sports which the Big Sky Conference does not sponsor.
3. The drop to the Big Sky Conference will mean a drop in profile for all sports that are not football. Idaho will have more trouble scheduling quality opponents in men's and women's basketball and all other sports. These sports will lose more money than they are now. As I pointed out in a prior blog, Montana's Olympic sports make back 45% of their costs, while Idaho's Olympic sports make back around 60%.
4. On the plus side, the BSC has, or used to have, a small footprint than the WAC. This means lower costs in travel.
It should be no wonder why Idaho will want to stay at the FBS level.
1. There is no TV money for football in the Big Sky Conference. There will be no games on ESPN-U. There will be no games every year at BYU. There will be "body bag" games at big time FBS schools, but the fee will be cut in half. Instead of 1 million per game, it will be 500,000. Idaho will face a loss of 1.5 to 3 million per year in football. Instead of pulling in around 7 million in football every year, it will be around 3.5 to 5 million per year.
2. The loss in revenue will be made up by cutting other sports. At Idaho, it will likely mean the loss of men's golf and women's swimming...sports which the Big Sky Conference does not sponsor.
3. The drop to the Big Sky Conference will mean a drop in profile for all sports that are not football. Idaho will have more trouble scheduling quality opponents in men's and women's basketball and all other sports. These sports will lose more money than they are now. As I pointed out in a prior blog, Montana's Olympic sports make back 45% of their costs, while Idaho's Olympic sports make back around 60%.
4. On the plus side, the BSC has, or used to have, a small footprint than the WAC. This means lower costs in travel.
It should be no wonder why Idaho will want to stay at the FBS level.
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Does Idaho Deserve This?
The University of Idaho appears to be without a football home beginning with the 2013 season if they decide to remain in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The questions that people should ask: Does Idaho deserve their fate? Could our school be next? There are five factors that have sealed the fate of the University of Idaho football program and these factors should serve as a warning to others who may follow someday.
First factor, on the field performance. In 1997, Idaho transitioned from the Football Championship Subdivision, then known as Division I-AA to the Football Bowl Subdivision or Division I-A. The moved up because of their degree of success in the 1980's and 1990s. Before then, the Vandals had not been all that successful, just a handful of conference championships, until 1982 when Dennis Erickson took over as the head football coach. Erickson coached Idaho for 4 seasons, initially, and earned a 32-15 record. Keith Gilbertson had similar results, and even took the Vandals to the I-AA semi-finals in 1988. Same story for John L. Smith. In 1997, they seemed ready for the big-time College football, and were successful the first two years, as members of the Big West Conference, where in 1998 they won the conference championship and the Humanitarian Bowl en route to a 9-3 record. After that Bowl win, the wheels came off. Chris Tormey left for Nevada beginning in the 2000 season. From 1999 to 2011, Idaho has amassed a 39-185 record, with only one winning season, in 2009.
Second factor, facilities. The Kibbie Dome is the smallest stadium in the Football Bowl Subdivision and only seats 16,000 people. If Idaho returns to the Big Sky Conference, at the FCS level, there will be 7 football stadiums larger than the Kibbie Dome. Montana, Sacramento State, Portland State, Montana State, Weber State and Northern Arizona can seat larger crowds. If Idaho were in the BSC, they would have a median-sized stadium. There have been proposals and attempts to build a larger facility in Moscow, even a proposal for a shared stadium on the border between Idaho and Washington for both Idaho and Washington State, but nothing ever became of any of them. Part of the problem is that an indoor facility can't be easily expanded.
Third factor, attendance. Idaho's attendance has been well below the 15,000 minimum standard that the NCAA has proposed for the Football Bowl Subdivision. Not selling a lot of tickets will keep big time programs from visiting your stadium, and hence, the Vandals play a ton of "one and done" football series against other programs. Here is Idaho's attendance for the last five seasons.
2011...11,980
2010...12,730
2009...12,546
2008...15,340
2007...11,479
Four factor, market. The market of Latah County, Idaho/Whitman County, Washington is 82,000. That market is shared with Washington State University of the PAC-12. It is a crowded market that people do not want to touch. Because it is such a small market, Idaho alumni do not stay nearby when they graduate, and that is a factor with game attendance. Idaho Alumni can be found in great numbers in Boise and Spokane, which are not big cities by any means. Bigger by some standards, but not big like Seattle and Portland. You can also find alumni from Washington State, Eastern Washington, Gonzaga and Boise State in these cities as well. You can find Idaho alumni all over the west, but that is no different than any other school in the west.
Fifth factor, conference affiliation and proximity. With the WAC in a tailspin, and with the Mountain West spurning the Vandals, there is no where else for them to go. There are other schools similar to Idaho in market size, attendance, performance and facilities, but they have the MAC or the Sun Belt conference to call home. Idaho is not so fortunate. New Mexico State may get back into the Sun Belt due to proximity, in spite of a worse historical performance than Idaho. Unfortunate for Idaho, but true.
Does Idaho deserve to be knocked down a notch? Most pundits will tell you, considering these factors, that the answer is yes. But Idaho does have a stellar academic reputation and would have lifted the academic profile of the Mountain West Conference. That will not change even if Idaho can't maintain their FBS standing.
Should this be a warning to other schools? Yes, it should, but it will likely only be so to schools that can compete at the FBS level, and will keep them from moving up. It will not likely help Buffalo or Kent get larger facilities built, or spurn Arkansas State to push harder for Conference USA membership. But any school, that is semi-isolated, should work to ensure that they have adequate facilities and good attendance so that they do not suffer Idaho's fate.
First factor, on the field performance. In 1997, Idaho transitioned from the Football Championship Subdivision, then known as Division I-AA to the Football Bowl Subdivision or Division I-A. The moved up because of their degree of success in the 1980's and 1990s. Before then, the Vandals had not been all that successful, just a handful of conference championships, until 1982 when Dennis Erickson took over as the head football coach. Erickson coached Idaho for 4 seasons, initially, and earned a 32-15 record. Keith Gilbertson had similar results, and even took the Vandals to the I-AA semi-finals in 1988. Same story for John L. Smith. In 1997, they seemed ready for the big-time College football, and were successful the first two years, as members of the Big West Conference, where in 1998 they won the conference championship and the Humanitarian Bowl en route to a 9-3 record. After that Bowl win, the wheels came off. Chris Tormey left for Nevada beginning in the 2000 season. From 1999 to 2011, Idaho has amassed a 39-185 record, with only one winning season, in 2009.
Second factor, facilities. The Kibbie Dome is the smallest stadium in the Football Bowl Subdivision and only seats 16,000 people. If Idaho returns to the Big Sky Conference, at the FCS level, there will be 7 football stadiums larger than the Kibbie Dome. Montana, Sacramento State, Portland State, Montana State, Weber State and Northern Arizona can seat larger crowds. If Idaho were in the BSC, they would have a median-sized stadium. There have been proposals and attempts to build a larger facility in Moscow, even a proposal for a shared stadium on the border between Idaho and Washington for both Idaho and Washington State, but nothing ever became of any of them. Part of the problem is that an indoor facility can't be easily expanded.
Third factor, attendance. Idaho's attendance has been well below the 15,000 minimum standard that the NCAA has proposed for the Football Bowl Subdivision. Not selling a lot of tickets will keep big time programs from visiting your stadium, and hence, the Vandals play a ton of "one and done" football series against other programs. Here is Idaho's attendance for the last five seasons.
2011...11,980
2010...12,730
2009...12,546
2008...15,340
2007...11,479
Four factor, market. The market of Latah County, Idaho/Whitman County, Washington is 82,000. That market is shared with Washington State University of the PAC-12. It is a crowded market that people do not want to touch. Because it is such a small market, Idaho alumni do not stay nearby when they graduate, and that is a factor with game attendance. Idaho Alumni can be found in great numbers in Boise and Spokane, which are not big cities by any means. Bigger by some standards, but not big like Seattle and Portland. You can also find alumni from Washington State, Eastern Washington, Gonzaga and Boise State in these cities as well. You can find Idaho alumni all over the west, but that is no different than any other school in the west.
Fifth factor, conference affiliation and proximity. With the WAC in a tailspin, and with the Mountain West spurning the Vandals, there is no where else for them to go. There are other schools similar to Idaho in market size, attendance, performance and facilities, but they have the MAC or the Sun Belt conference to call home. Idaho is not so fortunate. New Mexico State may get back into the Sun Belt due to proximity, in spite of a worse historical performance than Idaho. Unfortunate for Idaho, but true.
Does Idaho deserve to be knocked down a notch? Most pundits will tell you, considering these factors, that the answer is yes. But Idaho does have a stellar academic reputation and would have lifted the academic profile of the Mountain West Conference. That will not change even if Idaho can't maintain their FBS standing.
Should this be a warning to other schools? Yes, it should, but it will likely only be so to schools that can compete at the FBS level, and will keep them from moving up. It will not likely help Buffalo or Kent get larger facilities built, or spurn Arkansas State to push harder for Conference USA membership. But any school, that is semi-isolated, should work to ensure that they have adequate facilities and good attendance so that they do not suffer Idaho's fate.
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Swagger Opinion on Rumored Conference Moves
Florida State and Clemson to the Big 12?
That is a lateral move for these schools and perhaps a step down. Why? How many schools has the ACC lost in this conference realignment? The SEC could have added Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State or Virginia Tech but they raided the Big 12.
The new Big 12 commissioner stated that he was concerned about the distance that West Virginia is from the rest of the conference indicating that the next expansion may be in that direction...read Cincinnati and or Louisville.
BYU back to the Mountain West
There is a better chance that the Beatles will get together again. The mtn, BYU's main beef with the MWC is gone, but so is Utah, TCU and Boise State. If BSU and SDSU go back to the MWC, then they will be at 12 and may not expand further.
If BYU does not get into the Big 12, which seems likely, and if the Big East Westward expansion fails, which is also probable, I see BYU and Boise State hooking up to form a new conference instead of either joining the MWC. This gives BYU a chance to start a new conference without so many of the weaker football programs that brought the cred of the MWC down...read no Colorado State and no Wyoming. UNLV and New Mexico, probably because they at least bring NCAA tournament bids to the table. Colorado State and Wyoming no.
If Boise State can make the Big East work, or if BSU returns to the MWC, then I see BYU remaining independent.
BYU to the Big 12
There are three hurdles to getting BYU into the Big 12. First, the no Sunday play. The Big 12 has figured out how to play sports on weekends so that athletes do not miss any class. You play a Friday night game and a Sunday afternoon game. Most Big 12 schools have classes on either Monday/Wednesday or Tuesday/Thursday. (I know this because I am a graduate of the University of Nebraska system.) Rarely are there classes on Friday. You can leave for the Friday night game on Thursday night, and you can travel home from the Sunday afternoon game on Sunday night. No class missed. The Big 12 schools are less willing to give this arrangement up. But if you have class on Thursday/Saturday/Monday, you have a day of the week with no class nor game, and a little downtime for athletes might be welcome. The second obstacle is BYU TV and the ESPN contract and how that is used. And the third obstacle is BYU being another outlying school for the rest of the conference.
That is a lateral move for these schools and perhaps a step down. Why? How many schools has the ACC lost in this conference realignment? The SEC could have added Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida State or Virginia Tech but they raided the Big 12.
The new Big 12 commissioner stated that he was concerned about the distance that West Virginia is from the rest of the conference indicating that the next expansion may be in that direction...read Cincinnati and or Louisville.
BYU back to the Mountain West
There is a better chance that the Beatles will get together again. The mtn, BYU's main beef with the MWC is gone, but so is Utah, TCU and Boise State. If BSU and SDSU go back to the MWC, then they will be at 12 and may not expand further.
If BYU does not get into the Big 12, which seems likely, and if the Big East Westward expansion fails, which is also probable, I see BYU and Boise State hooking up to form a new conference instead of either joining the MWC. This gives BYU a chance to start a new conference without so many of the weaker football programs that brought the cred of the MWC down...read no Colorado State and no Wyoming. UNLV and New Mexico, probably because they at least bring NCAA tournament bids to the table. Colorado State and Wyoming no.
If Boise State can make the Big East work, or if BSU returns to the MWC, then I see BYU remaining independent.
BYU to the Big 12
There are three hurdles to getting BYU into the Big 12. First, the no Sunday play. The Big 12 has figured out how to play sports on weekends so that athletes do not miss any class. You play a Friday night game and a Sunday afternoon game. Most Big 12 schools have classes on either Monday/Wednesday or Tuesday/Thursday. (I know this because I am a graduate of the University of Nebraska system.) Rarely are there classes on Friday. You can leave for the Friday night game on Thursday night, and you can travel home from the Sunday afternoon game on Sunday night. No class missed. The Big 12 schools are less willing to give this arrangement up. But if you have class on Thursday/Saturday/Monday, you have a day of the week with no class nor game, and a little downtime for athletes might be welcome. The second obstacle is BYU TV and the ESPN contract and how that is used. And the third obstacle is BYU being another outlying school for the rest of the conference.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Yet another possibility for the WAC...move down
Another possibility for the WAC came to mind to me when I saw one Salt Lake Media Member tweet, "the WAC is done as an FBS conference." Can the WAC continue as an FCS conference? Let's examine the possibility.
1. Idaho and New Mexico State move down.
2. Cal Poly, UC Davis and Sacramento State...as football-only members. Poly and UCD were simply looking for an automatic bid because the Great West would not grow large enough to get one. Sac gets what they want, move non-football sports to the Big West...much more travel friendly...and a conference with their other FCS buds from California. The 13-member big sky is back to 10. Every member of the conference participates in every sport that is sponsored.
3. Central Washington moves up from Division II.
4. Utah Valley sponsors football and joins as a full member.
7 members qualifies for an FCS playoff automatic bid.
And for Basketball, you have 10 members. Problem solved for Boise State, Denver and Seattle.
The remaining Big Sky schools have non-conference teams to play from the West and do not have to schedule two body bag games every season.
Is there a downside?
1. Idaho and New Mexico State move down.
2. Cal Poly, UC Davis and Sacramento State...as football-only members. Poly and UCD were simply looking for an automatic bid because the Great West would not grow large enough to get one. Sac gets what they want, move non-football sports to the Big West...much more travel friendly...and a conference with their other FCS buds from California. The 13-member big sky is back to 10. Every member of the conference participates in every sport that is sponsored.
3. Central Washington moves up from Division II.
4. Utah Valley sponsors football and joins as a full member.
7 members qualifies for an FCS playoff automatic bid.
And for Basketball, you have 10 members. Problem solved for Boise State, Denver and Seattle.
The remaining Big Sky schools have non-conference teams to play from the West and do not have to schedule two body bag games every season.
Is there a downside?
Swagger Commentary...A Four Team Playoff
Imagine your frustration if you had looked at your 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball Bracket and found that it only 4 teams were invited...Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State and North Carolina. Would it have been as compelling?
Yet that is what is being considered as a replacement for the BCS in College Football beginning in 2014. A four team playoff? Is that really better than what we have now? Would you have been compelled to see a 4-team playoff that only included Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma State and Stanford? Is it really better than what we have now?
The only difference is that two of those four teams would have played a 15th game. That is it. At least the bowl games have tradition to go with them. This "playoff" ensures that college football power and money remain with just a privileged few while sacrificing tradition and not replacing it with something better.
This is not what people want. We want to see little guy Boise State knocking down big guy Oklahoma every year...or at least making a game of it. That is what makes the NCAA basketball tournament so good. It is rare that the little guy wins it all. But they have a say in who does win it all. For example, I thought that a #2 seed, Missouri, would win it all. Then watched them lose to St. Louis in the 2nd round.
What would be better? December Madness. Something to else to talk about at holiday parties, or watch with all the friends.
Is this a step in the right direction...of course...but not a bold enough one.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Idaho's Hope...A New Conference in the West
How long can Idaho bide their time? They can probably survive and an independent for 2 maybe 3 seasons, but will have to settle for dropping to to the FCS if a new conference can't be found. In order for a new conference to appear for Idaho, some things beyond their control need to happen.
1. The MWC needs to expand to 12 without Boise State or San Diego State. Who could they add now, UTEP? Montana? Tulsa? Bring back BYU?
Why this could happen...Boise State and San Diego State seem committed to the Big East for now, but without an automatic bid, they may lose the TV contract money. For now, the TV money is still better in the Big East.
2. Probably 4-6 FCS programs, like Montana and Montana State, need to be willing to move up.
Why this could happen...When the WAC was stable, Cal Poly seemed ready to make the move. Montana can compete. The FCS is dwindling on the east coast, and the playoffs are losing money. Moving to the FBS could raise the profile of other sports programs.
3. Utah Valley needs to add football.
Why this could happen...rumor has it that is has been in the works for years.
4. Boise State and San Diego State need to give up on the Big East.
See #1 above.
5. BYU needs to give up on independence.
If the BCS playoffs require a conference champion, and BYU does not get into the Big 12 and if BYU can keep their own TV deal...
If this happens, here is a potential new conference that could rise out of the ashes, and how the alignment in the west could look.
New FBS Conference--10 Members
Air Force (Travel partner for UNM, football cred)
Boise State (football cred)
BYU (football cred)
Idaho (Travel partner for BSU)
Fresno State (Travel Partner for San Diego State)
Nevada (Travel partner for UNLV)
UNLV (BBall Cred)
New Mexico (BBall Cred)
San Diego State (BBall Cred)
Utah State (Travel partner for BYU)
Mountain West--10 Members (9 for basketball)
UC Davis (Football Only)
Cal Poly (Football Only
Colorado State
Denver (Non Football)
Hawaii (Football Only)
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Seattle (Non Football)
UTEP
Wyoming
Big Sky 11-FCS football members
Eastern Washington
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Weber State
Portland State
North Dakota (UND might be better off in the MVFC, however.)
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Utah Valley
Denver and Seattle could join the WCC instead of the MWC.
For now, I suggest that Idaho and New Mexico play as Independents in football and that the WAC and the Big Sky merge in other sports. I know that makes a 16 team conference, but it could be worse.
1. The MWC needs to expand to 12 without Boise State or San Diego State. Who could they add now, UTEP? Montana? Tulsa? Bring back BYU?
Why this could happen...Boise State and San Diego State seem committed to the Big East for now, but without an automatic bid, they may lose the TV contract money. For now, the TV money is still better in the Big East.
2. Probably 4-6 FCS programs, like Montana and Montana State, need to be willing to move up.
Why this could happen...When the WAC was stable, Cal Poly seemed ready to make the move. Montana can compete. The FCS is dwindling on the east coast, and the playoffs are losing money. Moving to the FBS could raise the profile of other sports programs.
3. Utah Valley needs to add football.
Why this could happen...rumor has it that is has been in the works for years.
4. Boise State and San Diego State need to give up on the Big East.
See #1 above.
5. BYU needs to give up on independence.
If the BCS playoffs require a conference champion, and BYU does not get into the Big 12 and if BYU can keep their own TV deal...
If this happens, here is a potential new conference that could rise out of the ashes, and how the alignment in the west could look.
New FBS Conference--10 Members
Air Force (Travel partner for UNM, football cred)
Boise State (football cred)
BYU (football cred)
Idaho (Travel partner for BSU)
Fresno State (Travel Partner for San Diego State)
Nevada (Travel partner for UNLV)
UNLV (BBall Cred)
New Mexico (BBall Cred)
San Diego State (BBall Cred)
Utah State (Travel partner for BYU)
Mountain West--10 Members (9 for basketball)
UC Davis (Football Only)
Cal Poly (Football Only
Colorado State
Denver (Non Football)
Hawaii (Football Only)
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Seattle (Non Football)
UTEP
Wyoming
Big Sky 11-FCS football members
Eastern Washington
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Weber State
Portland State
North Dakota (UND might be better off in the MVFC, however.)
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Utah Valley
Denver and Seattle could join the WCC instead of the MWC.
For now, I suggest that Idaho and New Mexico play as Independents in football and that the WAC and the Big Sky merge in other sports. I know that makes a 16 team conference, but it could be worse.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Idaho and New Mexico State...what do you do?
As of this writing, it now appears that the football WAC is down to two members, and that does not a conference make. What do do now? Idaho could go back to the FCS and the Big Sky Conference, but the football program is making money and Idaho would have to drop other sports programs, most likely women's sports programs, to make a move back to the Big Sky work.
I have not taken the time to examine New Mexico State's finances, but I suspect that they are similar to Idaho. Dropping to the FCS would cost New Mexico State's athletic department money and scholarships and they would drop women's sports programs to save money as there will be a loss in football scholarships.
It is in the best interest of athletics in these schools to maintain their sports program at the FBS level. They need to find a way to maintain the profile, rather than allowing themselves to be hung out to dry through all of this. But understand that this is what happens when programs are allowed to linger in mediocrity for several years, and therefore, it one could not say that this is completely undeserved.
With that caveat, here is a possible solution for them:
1. Merge the WAC with the Big Sky Conference in all sports expect for football. NMSU can partner with Northern Arizona where Idaho can partner with Idaho State. The odd man out in a 15-member BSC basketball would be Weber State
BBall Travel Partners
UNC--DU
NSMU--UND
NAU--SUU
ISU--UID--WSU
UMT--MSU
EWU--SEA
PSU-SAC
1b. New Mexico State and Idaho compete in the FBS as independents, with scheduling agreements with BYU, the PAC-12 and Sun Belt Conferences. Condition: Idaho/NMSU/BYU/Big Sky/WAC retain right to place team in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
2. Sponsor Men/Women's Swimming and Diving.
3. Split the conference by FBS ready vs. non-FBS ready:
Ready for FBS now, based upon facilities.
Montana
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Sacramento State
Weber State
4. By 2016: Invite North Dakota State and South Dakota State, for a new 9-member conference, that can take the Western Athletic Conference name, but under a new charter. Charter members:
Idaho
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
North Dakota State
Northern Arizona
Sacramento State
South Dakota State
Weber State
4b: Invite Utah Valley on the condition that they start football by 2017. Otherwise the invite goes to Central Washington.
4c: This is who remains in the Big Sky Conference and why:
Eastern Washington: Football Stadium not big enough, do not sponsor enough sports.
Denver: No football.
Idaho State: Football Stadium not big enough, do not sponsor enough sports.
North Dakota: Football Stadium too small.
Portland State: Not enough sports programs.
Southern Utah: Facilities not large enough
Seattle: No Football.
Utah Valley: New to football. (Or Central WA)
Note: It would be better if Portland State can move instead of Weber State, but the Vikings must sponsor more sports.
Football-only members:
Cal-Poly: Football stadium too small
UC Davis: Football stadium to small
5. Any of the other schools remaining in the Big Sky can join the new WAC with a 75% vote. Other new WAC invitees must have a 90% vote.
I have not taken the time to examine New Mexico State's finances, but I suspect that they are similar to Idaho. Dropping to the FCS would cost New Mexico State's athletic department money and scholarships and they would drop women's sports programs to save money as there will be a loss in football scholarships.
It is in the best interest of athletics in these schools to maintain their sports program at the FBS level. They need to find a way to maintain the profile, rather than allowing themselves to be hung out to dry through all of this. But understand that this is what happens when programs are allowed to linger in mediocrity for several years, and therefore, it one could not say that this is completely undeserved.
With that caveat, here is a possible solution for them:
1. Merge the WAC with the Big Sky Conference in all sports expect for football. NMSU can partner with Northern Arizona where Idaho can partner with Idaho State. The odd man out in a 15-member BSC basketball would be Weber State
BBall Travel Partners
UNC--DU
NSMU--UND
NAU--SUU
ISU--UID--WSU
UMT--MSU
EWU--SEA
PSU-SAC
1b. New Mexico State and Idaho compete in the FBS as independents, with scheduling agreements with BYU, the PAC-12 and Sun Belt Conferences. Condition: Idaho/NMSU/BYU/Big Sky/WAC retain right to place team in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
2. Sponsor Men/Women's Swimming and Diving.
3. Split the conference by FBS ready vs. non-FBS ready:
Ready for FBS now, based upon facilities.
Montana
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Sacramento State
Weber State
4. By 2016: Invite North Dakota State and South Dakota State, for a new 9-member conference, that can take the Western Athletic Conference name, but under a new charter. Charter members:
Idaho
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
North Dakota State
Northern Arizona
Sacramento State
South Dakota State
Weber State
4b: Invite Utah Valley on the condition that they start football by 2017. Otherwise the invite goes to Central Washington.
4c: This is who remains in the Big Sky Conference and why:
Eastern Washington: Football Stadium not big enough, do not sponsor enough sports.
Denver: No football.
Idaho State: Football Stadium not big enough, do not sponsor enough sports.
North Dakota: Football Stadium too small.
Portland State: Not enough sports programs.
Southern Utah: Facilities not large enough
Seattle: No Football.
Utah Valley: New to football. (Or Central WA)
Note: It would be better if Portland State can move instead of Weber State, but the Vikings must sponsor more sports.
Football-only members:
Cal-Poly: Football stadium too small
UC Davis: Football stadium to small
5. Any of the other schools remaining in the Big Sky can join the new WAC with a 75% vote. Other new WAC invitees must have a 90% vote.
Hindsight...was Montana Wrong?
In the fall of 2010, Montana spurned an invitation from the WAC. The main reason is because it was going to be too expensive to add football scholarships and to sponsor additional women's teams to comply with Title IX. There was one glaring missing item to the analysis that was printed in the Billings Gazette afterwards. How much would revenue increase and how much more money would the football program have to generate to cover the costs? In other words, how much revenue can Montana expect to make in a jump to the FBS?
Let's compare Montana to their former rival, Idaho. As you can see below, Idaho makes money in football, enough to make up for the losses in other sports. And in 2010, there was only 1 "money game" at Nebraska. They traveled to both Louisiana Tech and Hawaii. They averaged just 12,000, finished with a 6-7 record and still made money in football.
Montana has a lot of advantages in athletics that Idaho does not. Montana has a decent football stadium. They have National Parks nearby. They have an airport. They have fans that come to their games from all over the Treasure State. Where Idaho can't get a home and home with PAC-12 teams, Montana could.
Here is the bottom line, it would cost Montana an extra 4,000,000 to move up to the FBS, but their non-football sports would probably make back at least 1,800,000 of that on their own, leaving football to come up with the extra 2,200,000. Keep in mind that moving the football program to the FBS raises the profile of the non football/basketball sports. There would be more opportunities for the non-revenue programs to visit colleges where non-revenue program can make money. For example, Utah's Women's Gymnastics program makes money. The non revenue sports may make more than 45% of their costs if Montana becomes an FBS school
They could make up the difference in football with two concessions, one is a home and home with BYU, which I'm certain the independent Cougars would jump on, needing games to fill their schedule. This is a guaranteed TV game. I have no doubt that BYU would indeed pay a visit to Washington-Grizzly stadium. Then another money games, like the Tennessee game of 2011, and there is more than enough money to cover it. Also consider than in the FBS, there is more money for TV games. There is a higher level of competition, so there is the opportunity to charge a slightly higher price for tickets. Bottom line is if Idaho can make a significant profit in football, so can Montana.
But was Montana wrong to spurn the WAC? No, it was not a mistake at all. We all saw the death spiral that the WAC is now in coming two years ago. The WAC needed six FCS programs to agree to jump up, not just Montana and Montana state. In order for the WAC to have survived, the Big Sky Conference would have needed to be gutted, or the expansion would have needed to touch the Missouri Valley and Southland Conferences as well. It would have been a wide footprint. Montana would indeed make a very fine FBS school, but the right conference needs to emerge for the Grizzlies to join. The WAC is not the right conference any more that Jimmy Stewart was the right choice to play Gandolf in Lord of the Rings.
The school would need to make some other changes to really make a jump to the FBS work. They would probably need to expand the stadium to over 30,000 (which would be relatively easy), and they would need a new basketball arena, which would not be so easy. Let's face it, Wayne Tinkle's program deserves an arena that they can at least break even with. Dahlberg is old and really little better than a high school gym. Perhaps a deal can be worked with the City and/or County of Missoula to build a joint facility: a 10,000-seat arena that can also be a good concert venue and perhaps also host an NBADL franchise and/or a minor league hockey team. Missoula could use something like that, whether or not Montana makes a move to join an FBS-level conference.
If the MWC still wants to go to 12, and Boise State, et al still insist on remaining in the Big East, then why not ask Montana and Montana State to join? What not accept? They would be a good fit for each-other. Wouldn't Montana be a better choice than New Mexico State?
The football expense and Revenue for the University of Montana in 2010
Let's compare Montana to their former rival, Idaho. As you can see below, Idaho makes money in football, enough to make up for the losses in other sports. And in 2010, there was only 1 "money game" at Nebraska. They traveled to both Louisiana Tech and Hawaii. They averaged just 12,000, finished with a 6-7 record and still made money in football.
Montana has a lot of advantages in athletics that Idaho does not. Montana has a decent football stadium. They have National Parks nearby. They have an airport. They have fans that come to their games from all over the Treasure State. Where Idaho can't get a home and home with PAC-12 teams, Montana could.
Here is the bottom line, it would cost Montana an extra 4,000,000 to move up to the FBS, but their non-football sports would probably make back at least 1,800,000 of that on their own, leaving football to come up with the extra 2,200,000. Keep in mind that moving the football program to the FBS raises the profile of the non football/basketball sports. There would be more opportunities for the non-revenue programs to visit colleges where non-revenue program can make money. For example, Utah's Women's Gymnastics program makes money. The non revenue sports may make more than 45% of their costs if Montana becomes an FBS school
They could make up the difference in football with two concessions, one is a home and home with BYU, which I'm certain the independent Cougars would jump on, needing games to fill their schedule. This is a guaranteed TV game. I have no doubt that BYU would indeed pay a visit to Washington-Grizzly stadium. Then another money games, like the Tennessee game of 2011, and there is more than enough money to cover it. Also consider than in the FBS, there is more money for TV games. There is a higher level of competition, so there is the opportunity to charge a slightly higher price for tickets. Bottom line is if Idaho can make a significant profit in football, so can Montana.
But was Montana wrong to spurn the WAC? No, it was not a mistake at all. We all saw the death spiral that the WAC is now in coming two years ago. The WAC needed six FCS programs to agree to jump up, not just Montana and Montana state. In order for the WAC to have survived, the Big Sky Conference would have needed to be gutted, or the expansion would have needed to touch the Missouri Valley and Southland Conferences as well. It would have been a wide footprint. Montana would indeed make a very fine FBS school, but the right conference needs to emerge for the Grizzlies to join. The WAC is not the right conference any more that Jimmy Stewart was the right choice to play Gandolf in Lord of the Rings.
The school would need to make some other changes to really make a jump to the FBS work. They would probably need to expand the stadium to over 30,000 (which would be relatively easy), and they would need a new basketball arena, which would not be so easy. Let's face it, Wayne Tinkle's program deserves an arena that they can at least break even with. Dahlberg is old and really little better than a high school gym. Perhaps a deal can be worked with the City and/or County of Missoula to build a joint facility: a 10,000-seat arena that can also be a good concert venue and perhaps also host an NBADL franchise and/or a minor league hockey team. Missoula could use something like that, whether or not Montana makes a move to join an FBS-level conference.
If the MWC still wants to go to 12, and Boise State, et al still insist on remaining in the Big East, then why not ask Montana and Montana State to join? What not accept? They would be a good fit for each-other. Wouldn't Montana be a better choice than New Mexico State?
The football expense and Revenue for the University of Montana in 2010
Football Expense...5,087,854
Football Revenue...6,909,838
Average Football Attendance...25,448 (Capacity 25,203)
Men's Basketball Expense...1,499,077
Men's Basketball Revenue...1,212,593
Average Basketball Attendance...3,996 (Capacity 7,300)
Non football/basketball expense...3,393,981
Non football/basketball revenue...1,544,886
Percentage that non football/basketball sports cover costs...45%
"Money games" in 2010...None
Idaho...
Football Expense...5,490,410
Football Revenue...7,668,822
Average Attendance...12,730 (Capacity 16,000)
Men's Basketball Expense...1,521,464
Men's Basketball Revenue...1,117,265
Average Basketball Attendance...1,359 (Capacity 7,000)
Non football/basketball expense...4,205,645
Non football/basketball revenue...3,986,714
Percentage that non football/basketball sports cover costs...92%
Men's Basketball Revenue...1,117,265
Average Basketball Attendance...1,359 (Capacity 7,000)
Non football/basketball expense...4,205,645
Non football/basketball revenue...3,986,714
Percentage that non football/basketball sports cover costs...92%
"Money games" in 2010...@ Nebraska
Note: 2011 numbers will not be available until July.
I have corrected the capacity of Dahlberg according to the University's own web site. Still, the point is that a College Basketball program that has had the recent success of Montana should at least break even in men's basketball.
Note: 2011 numbers will not be available until July.
I have corrected the capacity of Dahlberg according to the University's own web site. Still, the point is that a College Basketball program that has had the recent success of Montana should at least break even in men's basketball.
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