One of the sad realities of being an FCS program is this, rarely does a head coach stay on for his entire career. Of course that are people like Eddie Robinson, but most FCS coaches will eventually move on. It is both with sadness and excitement that Southern Utah should say goodbye to Ed Lamb.
Lamb will be taking the position of Assistant Head Coach and will also coach the tight ends and special teams for new BYU coach Kalani Sitake. His experience as a head coach will be invaluable to Sitake, a first-time head coach.
Lamb leaves a big footprint in Cedar City. He is the only coach who what led the Thunderbirds in the post-season. He bridged the gap that brought SUU to the Big Sky Conference as a result of the 2010 college football realignment and led SUU to the Big Sky Conference title in 2015.
Ed Lamb is a BYU alum, who was a teammate of Sitake under coach LaVell Edwards. He is not Mormon, but has married into a Mormon family. For Lamb, this is likely another step in his career. I expect his stay in Provo will be a short one this time before he either goes to the NFL or resumes his Head Coaching career at another FBS school.
For SUU, however, they have some good men who are ready to take over for Lamb. Most likely Ryan Hunt (no relation) and Demario Warren are the leading candidates to replace him. Other candidates would include Snow College Head Coach Britt Maughan or Weber State Offensive Coordinator Steve Clark. I would expect SUU to name their new head coach shortly after the new year. Coach Warren has been named the interim head coach.
The Big Sky has a lot of good schools, and power can turn over very quickly. SUU will not only have to defend their conference title without Lamb, but a lot of good seniors have played their last game. Don't expect the Thunderbirds to be rebuilding for very long, however. They have a lot to offer an FCS-level athlete.
Ranking Southern Utah's Head Coaches
1. Jack Bishop 1978-1995
2. Ed Lamb 2008-2015 (Only SUU coach to take T-Birds to post-season)
3. Tom Kingsford 1967-1977
4. Bruce Osborne 1963-1964
5. Bill Reeske 1965-1966
6. Ray Gregory 1997-2002
7. Rich Ellerson 1996
8. Gary Anderson 2003
9. Don Conrad 1983-1985
10. Wes Meier 2004-2007
Sunday, December 27, 2015
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Welcoming Kalani Sitake (back) to Provo
It took BYU a little over two weeks to find a replacement to Bronco Mendenhall. Of course, the man they got wasn't their first choice. Rarely, does a college get their first choice when hiring a new coach.
Kenny Niumatalolo is a model Latter-Day Saint. That is likely why BYU went after him in the first place. It is difficult to lure someone away from a place they like to work, and from where your employer shows that they value you. Coach Ken and Navy are like peanut butter and jelly, or like turkey and stuffing on a holiday dinner. They just go well together. Sure, perhaps you should give credit to BYU for trying, but it was never meant to be.
Along comes Kalani Sitake. He is not an experienced head coach. But neither was LaVell Edwards. We all know how that turned out. Kalani is the first branch of LaVell's coaching tree to come back to BYU. Not all have been successful, but most have. There may be a few games next season where the inexperience will show, but eventually things will fall into place.
Sitake may not be the coach that will take BYU to the next level, or back to where the Cougars are in the national conversation every week. But expect that as long as the team has healthy talent, that they will at least compete every single week. That will be an improvement over Mendenhall, sad to say. The next two or three seasons should be fun to watch as Sitake's coaching style takes shape.
Kenny Niumatalolo is a model Latter-Day Saint. That is likely why BYU went after him in the first place. It is difficult to lure someone away from a place they like to work, and from where your employer shows that they value you. Coach Ken and Navy are like peanut butter and jelly, or like turkey and stuffing on a holiday dinner. They just go well together. Sure, perhaps you should give credit to BYU for trying, but it was never meant to be.
Along comes Kalani Sitake. He is not an experienced head coach. But neither was LaVell Edwards. We all know how that turned out. Kalani is the first branch of LaVell's coaching tree to come back to BYU. Not all have been successful, but most have. There may be a few games next season where the inexperience will show, but eventually things will fall into place.
Sitake may not be the coach that will take BYU to the next level, or back to where the Cougars are in the national conversation every week. But expect that as long as the team has healthy talent, that they will at least compete every single week. That will be an improvement over Mendenhall, sad to say. The next two or three seasons should be fun to watch as Sitake's coaching style takes shape.
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Potato Bowl Impressions
In my expectations blog, I pointed out that Akron has not beaten a team with a winning record this year. No one pointed out to me that if Akron won, USU would finish sub-500 this year. Therefore, Akron still hasn't beaten a team with a winning record. The Aggies finish what can be described at a disappointing season. Their first sub-.500 season since 2010.
It's hard to tell what is plaguing the Aggies from week to week. If its not one thing, its another. In the bowl, it was the play of the quarterbacks. Neither Chuckie Keeton nor Kent Meyers was 100% for the bowl game, and neither was very effective. USU was unable to take advantage of only the 3rd 100+ yard outing by a RB this season.
Akron came in perhaps a little more motivated. For the Zips, this is their first bowl win ever.
It's hard to tell what is plaguing the Aggies from week to week. If its not one thing, its another. In the bowl, it was the play of the quarterbacks. Neither Chuckie Keeton nor Kent Meyers was 100% for the bowl game, and neither was very effective. USU was unable to take advantage of only the 3rd 100+ yard outing by a RB this season.
Akron came in perhaps a little more motivated. For the Zips, this is their first bowl win ever.
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Las Vegas Bowl Impressions
I thought the Las Vegas Bowl would be a Utah blowout if BYU's head wasn't in the game, and a close, defensive struggle if BYU did show up. The actual game kind of split the difference. The first quarter began by looking like BYU was going to get blown out. However, the turnovers and the short field didn't help Utah's offense. They never got on track. As poor as Utah's offense was, they were good enough to win. They capitalized on BYU's mistakes. There were a couple of drives that took time off the clock, especially when it counted. That was all they needed to do, and for most of the first quarter, the defense did the rest.
As for where this game ranks in history? Had it been played in Provo or Salt Lake City, it probably would have been a forgettable game. First of all, BYU wasn't ready out of the gate. That was obvious. And as Bronco said in the post-game press conference, "you get the results that you prepare for." Well said, outgoing coach. (I will post more on this development, later.)
Somehow, BYU pulled it together well enough to pull within 1 score, and by looking at the Twitter feed, put doubt in many a Utah fan. But at in the end, Utah was able to hold on and run out the clock.
Perhaps more credit goes to the fans on both sides. Most stayed until the end, and were very civil to each other before and after the game. After all is said and done, we are still family in this state. And for the most part, the fans proved it. Civility is greatly needed in this rivalry. It has been way to punchy, lately. Perhaps with the hiring of Sitake, someone who coach Whittingham respects, the corner will be turned for a more civil and fun rivalry game. Of course, for Utah fans, the last five meetings have been fun.
As for where this game ranks in history? Had it been played in Provo or Salt Lake City, it probably would have been a forgettable game. First of all, BYU wasn't ready out of the gate. That was obvious. And as Bronco said in the post-game press conference, "you get the results that you prepare for." Well said, outgoing coach. (I will post more on this development, later.)
Somehow, BYU pulled it together well enough to pull within 1 score, and by looking at the Twitter feed, put doubt in many a Utah fan. But at in the end, Utah was able to hold on and run out the clock.
Perhaps more credit goes to the fans on both sides. Most stayed until the end, and were very civil to each other before and after the game. After all is said and done, we are still family in this state. And for the most part, the fans proved it. Civility is greatly needed in this rivalry. It has been way to punchy, lately. Perhaps with the hiring of Sitake, someone who coach Whittingham respects, the corner will be turned for a more civil and fun rivalry game. Of course, for Utah fans, the last five meetings have been fun.
Saturday, December 12, 2015
MWC Expanding Again?
Even though Commissioner Craig Thompson has said he is leaving the light on for BYU, there is a rumor that the MW may raid Conference USA to expand to 14 members. The reason for this could be another move to keep Boise State happy.
Being in the MW Mountain has left BSU without their old natural (?) rivals, Nevada and Fresno State. I don't know why Fresno is a 'Natural' rival as California and Idaho don't exactly neighbor each-other, but trust me on this, it's true. Besides, everybody naturally wants revenge on Utah State, not because they are in the neighboring state but because, well, who wants Utah State as a rival? (Just kidding Aggies, please don't egg my house.) Adding two teams from Texas will allow BSU to move to the MW-West. The alignment would look like this.
MW Mountain
Air Force
Colorado State
New Mexico
Rice
Texas El Paso
Utah State
Wyoming
MW West
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii (football only)
Nevada
Nevada Las Vegas
San Diego State
San Jose State
I am not sure how the scheduling will go, but usually in a 14-team conference, you play 8 conference games on a 6+2 basis. This mean you will play everyone home and home in the other division once every 14 years, while playing everyone in your division every season. Not sure if the MW will break up into divisions for a 13-team basketball conference. However, there have been rumors of adding a non-football school for non-football sports for years.
Perhaps the MW is open to allowing BYU to be independent in football, but allowing the Cougars to move their other sports back. They weren't open to this idea when BYU bolted 6 years ago. If they did, would you have USU and BYU in different divisions? All of this is doubtful. Rather, I would expect a public school from a larger western city that does not have football right now like Long Beach State or UC-Santa Barbara. Let me emphasize public as BYU and TCU are the only private schools ever in the MWC, although Rice is private.
If you compare this to the failed 16-team WAC, you will notice more similarities than differences. Boise State, Nevada and Utah State were never in the 16-team WAC. BYU, Utah, TCU, Tulsa and SMU were.
Even though Craig Thompson says the door is open for BYU to come back, their actions are not. Are they trying to recreate the old 16-team WAC? If the MW were serious about leaving the door open for BYU, then you would see Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State and Wyoming on BYU's independent schedule. Right now, these schools are missing. It seems like they don't want to have anything to do with BYU. And BYU would want to slip in a division with their oldest rival in the conference, Utah State, and other teams that BYU has played a lot: New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force. (And possibly UTEP as well.)
This is also how I think things will trickle down. Once UTEP and Rice are gone, C-USA will need to decide how to act. If they decide to remain at 14 members, C-USA will look to add teams from the Sun Belt to replace Rice and UTEP. The list of candidates would include:
New Mexico State
Arkansas State
Texas State
Appalachian State
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
The list doesn't likely include Idaho as the Vandals are too far out of the footprint of the conference and they would not be looking for a football-only member.
Conference USA also may choose to remain at 12 members with the loss of two and simply realign divisions.
As for the future of Idaho, it seems destined that the Big Sky Conference and the Vandals are due for a permanent football reunion at some point in the near future. Idaho averaged 11,846 in attendance in 2015.
Update: for now, the MWC will not expand.
Being in the MW Mountain has left BSU without their old natural (?) rivals, Nevada and Fresno State. I don't know why Fresno is a 'Natural' rival as California and Idaho don't exactly neighbor each-other, but trust me on this, it's true. Besides, everybody naturally wants revenge on Utah State, not because they are in the neighboring state but because, well, who wants Utah State as a rival? (Just kidding Aggies, please don't egg my house.) Adding two teams from Texas will allow BSU to move to the MW-West. The alignment would look like this.
MW Mountain
Air Force
Colorado State
New Mexico
Rice
Texas El Paso
Utah State
Wyoming
MW West
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii (football only)
Nevada
Nevada Las Vegas
San Diego State
San Jose State
I am not sure how the scheduling will go, but usually in a 14-team conference, you play 8 conference games on a 6+2 basis. This mean you will play everyone home and home in the other division once every 14 years, while playing everyone in your division every season. Not sure if the MW will break up into divisions for a 13-team basketball conference. However, there have been rumors of adding a non-football school for non-football sports for years.
Perhaps the MW is open to allowing BYU to be independent in football, but allowing the Cougars to move their other sports back. They weren't open to this idea when BYU bolted 6 years ago. If they did, would you have USU and BYU in different divisions? All of this is doubtful. Rather, I would expect a public school from a larger western city that does not have football right now like Long Beach State or UC-Santa Barbara. Let me emphasize public as BYU and TCU are the only private schools ever in the MWC, although Rice is private.
If you compare this to the failed 16-team WAC, you will notice more similarities than differences. Boise State, Nevada and Utah State were never in the 16-team WAC. BYU, Utah, TCU, Tulsa and SMU were.
Even though Craig Thompson says the door is open for BYU to come back, their actions are not. Are they trying to recreate the old 16-team WAC? If the MW were serious about leaving the door open for BYU, then you would see Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State and Wyoming on BYU's independent schedule. Right now, these schools are missing. It seems like they don't want to have anything to do with BYU. And BYU would want to slip in a division with their oldest rival in the conference, Utah State, and other teams that BYU has played a lot: New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force. (And possibly UTEP as well.)
This is also how I think things will trickle down. Once UTEP and Rice are gone, C-USA will need to decide how to act. If they decide to remain at 14 members, C-USA will look to add teams from the Sun Belt to replace Rice and UTEP. The list of candidates would include:
New Mexico State
Arkansas State
Texas State
Appalachian State
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
The list doesn't likely include Idaho as the Vandals are too far out of the footprint of the conference and they would not be looking for a football-only member.
Conference USA also may choose to remain at 12 members with the loss of two and simply realign divisions.
As for the future of Idaho, it seems destined that the Big Sky Conference and the Vandals are due for a permanent football reunion at some point in the near future. Idaho averaged 11,846 in attendance in 2015.
Update: for now, the MWC will not expand.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Status of BYU Head Coaching Candidates.
Updated.
No longer in the mix
Robert Anae--Following Bronco to Virginia. Likely told that he wasn't on the final interview list.
Darrell Bevel--Seahawks are in the thick of the NFL playoff hunt. Was not released by the team for an interview.
Possibly still in the mix
Ken Nuimatalolo--It is rumored that Navy is willing match any offer BYU makes. Will likely sacrifice some of his if he leaves Navy in the next 3 years. He is not civil service, he is NAF, and the retirement is probably a separately negotiated line-item on his contract. Will meet (interview) at BYU on Monday. HAS NOT BEEN offered the position.
Kyle Whittingham--Not addressing any coaching rumors at this time. Was seen and photographed talking to Tom Holmoe at the Salt Lake Airport Thursday morning. Holmoe was at the airport to greet a returning missionary football commit (damage control) and then to fly to Lexington to be the with Women's Volleyball team. Whittingham was traveling to the Ray Guy award function in Atlanta with his wife. (And with Tom Hackett). Likely not coming to BYU. He has said he will listen to BYU's offer, and that meeting may or may not have already taken place.
Lance Anderson--Was in Utah on Wednesday, visited Brighton High School to recruit. Reportedly has been offered the DC position at Michigan, but it has not been reported that he has accepted. Possibly already been interviewed by BYU.
Kilane Sitake--Rumor has it that he really wants the job, and was also in Utah recruiting this week. Possibly has already been interviewed by BYU.
Fringe, or default candidates who could get consideration, if all others fall through:
Weber State Head Coach Jay Hill--In his 2nd year in Ogden. Turned a 2-10 team into a 6-5 team. Possibly has already been interviewed by BYU.
Defensive Assistant Steve Kafusi--The only assistant that seem loyal to BYU. Possibly already been interviewed.
Utah Co-Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick--Seems loyal to Coach Whitt. Likely a candidate for Offensive Coordinator.
Utah Assistant Justin Ena--Has served as a defensive coordinator at both Weber State and SUU. Likely a candidate for Defensive Coordinator.
Likely Outcome:
Nuimatalolo is likely the front runner. Sitake is likely the 2nd choice.
Likely coordinators.
As you know, Bronco is taking most of his staff with him. Here is who are the likely candidates for the coordinator positions.
Offensive Coordinator:
Steve Sarkisian--Former USC Head Coach and BYU Alum
Aaron Roderick--Utah assistant coach and BYU Alum
Ty Detmer--BYU Alum
Brandon Doman--Former BYU Offensive Coordinator and BYU alum
Norm Chow--Former Hawaii head coach
Defensive Coordinator
Justin Ena--Utah Assistant
Ed Lamb--SUU Head Coach
Britt Maughn--Snow College Head Coach
Steve Kafusi--Current Defensive Assistant
No longer in the mix
Robert Anae--Following Bronco to Virginia. Likely told that he wasn't on the final interview list.
Darrell Bevel--Seahawks are in the thick of the NFL playoff hunt. Was not released by the team for an interview.
Possibly still in the mix
Ken Nuimatalolo--It is rumored that Navy is willing match any offer BYU makes. Will likely sacrifice some of his if he leaves Navy in the next 3 years. He is not civil service, he is NAF, and the retirement is probably a separately negotiated line-item on his contract. Will meet (interview) at BYU on Monday. HAS NOT BEEN offered the position.
Kyle Whittingham--Not addressing any coaching rumors at this time. Was seen and photographed talking to Tom Holmoe at the Salt Lake Airport Thursday morning. Holmoe was at the airport to greet a returning missionary football commit (damage control) and then to fly to Lexington to be the with Women's Volleyball team. Whittingham was traveling to the Ray Guy award function in Atlanta with his wife. (And with Tom Hackett). Likely not coming to BYU. He has said he will listen to BYU's offer, and that meeting may or may not have already taken place.
Lance Anderson--Was in Utah on Wednesday, visited Brighton High School to recruit. Reportedly has been offered the DC position at Michigan, but it has not been reported that he has accepted. Possibly already been interviewed by BYU.
Kilane Sitake--Rumor has it that he really wants the job, and was also in Utah recruiting this week. Possibly has already been interviewed by BYU.
Fringe, or default candidates who could get consideration, if all others fall through:
Weber State Head Coach Jay Hill--In his 2nd year in Ogden. Turned a 2-10 team into a 6-5 team. Possibly has already been interviewed by BYU.
Defensive Assistant Steve Kafusi--The only assistant that seem loyal to BYU. Possibly already been interviewed.
Utah Co-Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick--Seems loyal to Coach Whitt. Likely a candidate for Offensive Coordinator.
Utah Assistant Justin Ena--Has served as a defensive coordinator at both Weber State and SUU. Likely a candidate for Defensive Coordinator.
Likely Outcome:
Nuimatalolo is likely the front runner. Sitake is likely the 2nd choice.
Likely coordinators.
As you know, Bronco is taking most of his staff with him. Here is who are the likely candidates for the coordinator positions.
Offensive Coordinator:
Steve Sarkisian--Former USC Head Coach and BYU Alum
Aaron Roderick--Utah assistant coach and BYU Alum
Ty Detmer--BYU Alum
Brandon Doman--Former BYU Offensive Coordinator and BYU alum
Norm Chow--Former Hawaii head coach
Defensive Coordinator
Justin Ena--Utah Assistant
Ed Lamb--SUU Head Coach
Britt Maughn--Snow College Head Coach
Steve Kafusi--Current Defensive Assistant
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
Bowl Predictions and Expectations
Well lucky us. Three bowl teams in two bowls and a renewed rivalry in one of them, just in case you have been hiding out in the Uintas all week. And yes, there is a lot of intrigue in that one. But I will begin with the game on the blue carpet in Boise. Even though the other game is first.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Akron vs. Utah State
December 22, 2016
A Little about Akron
I didn't know about the Akron Zips until the bowl invite. I didn't even know what a Zip was. I found out that their nickname goes back to the day when Goodyear (Headquartered in Akron, Ohio) made rubber boots instead of tires...the late 1800s before the Henry Ford and his assembly line...and the long boots they made had a zipper on the outside. The boots were called Zips. I read that Akron is the only college in the world that has a mascot named for footwear. We should be thankful this is not a trend. However, in a trend that indicates modern times, the Zips have moved from the venerable old Rubber Bowl to InfoCision Stadium, where they now play their home games. InfoCision is a telemarketing company like Convergys.
Akron has had its fair share of successes, John Heisman, that John Heisman, made a stop there as a coach on his way to Georgia Tech where he would gain his fame. However, the program has not had a lot of success since moving up from the Football Championship Subdivision in 1992. 2015 is only their 4th winning season this century and their 6th since moving to the FBS permanently. This 2015 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will only be their 2nd bowl appearance ever. Currently the Zips are coached by Terry Bowden, the son of Bobby Bowden of Florida State Fame. He took over for the 2012 season, their 3rd consecutive 1-win season. This year the Zips are 7-5.
The Zips do not own a single win over an FBS opponent that finished over .500. Their best win of the season was again a 5-7 Buffalo team. Their sole non-conference win was against FCS Savanah State. I could not find any highlights on them, but I am sure Matt Wells has seen film and that is much more important.
Their best player is Thomas Woodson, a sophomore quarterback who has thrown for 2,323 yards and 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Woodson has also run for 544 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has two favorite targets, Jerome Lane and Imani Davis, who together account for about half of the receptions on the team. The duo accounts for 2/3 of the touchdown receptions. The leading rusher is Conor Hundley, who has accounted for 883 yards. The Zips have a balanced attack which is close to 50-50. But the lion share of the offense comes from Woodson passing to Lane and Davis and from Hundley. The task for the Aggie defense is to shut these men down. The Zip offense hasn't done well when facing a quality defense. They scored 7 against Oklahoma, 7 against Pittsburgh, 12 against Ohio, 10 against Bowling Green, and 6 against Central Michigan.
With a healthy Chuckie Keeton, the Aggies should do well enough to win going away as long as they take care of the ball and don't get overconfident. The Zips could surprise them, but that's not what they do.
My prediction
Utah State 24 Akron 6
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. BYU
December 19, 2016
Let me get this out of the way first. Utah does not belong in the Las Vegas Bowl. But without Devontae Booker, they weren't that attractive. If Booker had remained healthy, Utah would probably be in the Alamo Bowl or perhaps even the Rose Bowl as they seem to have Stanford's number. With Booker healthy against UCLA, Utah is at least in the Championship game.
That being said, this is a fierce rivalry, but it all depends on whether or not BYU's head is in the game. It will be a close and fierce game if BYU's position coaches can properly prepare the players and can keep them focused.
But, we all know that Bronco Mendenhall is leaving Provo. We all know that some of the assistant coaches are going with him. We all know that the others who are going are worried about where they are going to work next year (Which means January). We know the players are distracted. And we all know how bad BYU looks when the team isn't prepared. And the Utes, they are going to be prepared.
Yes, I know that I have dedicated more space to Akron than to this rivalry game. The rivalry needed to take a hiatus. People take it too personally. This year, however, is not the time to do that. It could be an ugly game. After the game, please take a holiday fruitcake to your neighbor who roots for the other guys and bury the hatchet. And don't take the weed whacker that you were going to give to your brother-in-law back to Lowes because Tanner Mangum says something insensitive after the game. And shake hands with your Bishop on Sunday because he's still a good guy, even if he went to the other school. When it comes to what matters most, and that is not football, both schools are pretty good.
My prediction all depends on whether or not the Cougars really show up. Either way it's a Utah victory. I will therefore make 2 predictions. One close, and one not-so close.
If BYU shows up
Utah 21 BYU 19
If BYU does not show up
Utah 50 BYU 15
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Akron vs. Utah State
December 22, 2016
A Little about Akron
I didn't know about the Akron Zips until the bowl invite. I didn't even know what a Zip was. I found out that their nickname goes back to the day when Goodyear (Headquartered in Akron, Ohio) made rubber boots instead of tires...the late 1800s before the Henry Ford and his assembly line...and the long boots they made had a zipper on the outside. The boots were called Zips. I read that Akron is the only college in the world that has a mascot named for footwear. We should be thankful this is not a trend. However, in a trend that indicates modern times, the Zips have moved from the venerable old Rubber Bowl to InfoCision Stadium, where they now play their home games. InfoCision is a telemarketing company like Convergys.
Akron has had its fair share of successes, John Heisman, that John Heisman, made a stop there as a coach on his way to Georgia Tech where he would gain his fame. However, the program has not had a lot of success since moving up from the Football Championship Subdivision in 1992. 2015 is only their 4th winning season this century and their 6th since moving to the FBS permanently. This 2015 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will only be their 2nd bowl appearance ever. Currently the Zips are coached by Terry Bowden, the son of Bobby Bowden of Florida State Fame. He took over for the 2012 season, their 3rd consecutive 1-win season. This year the Zips are 7-5.
The Zips do not own a single win over an FBS opponent that finished over .500. Their best win of the season was again a 5-7 Buffalo team. Their sole non-conference win was against FCS Savanah State. I could not find any highlights on them, but I am sure Matt Wells has seen film and that is much more important.
Their best player is Thomas Woodson, a sophomore quarterback who has thrown for 2,323 yards and 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Woodson has also run for 544 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has two favorite targets, Jerome Lane and Imani Davis, who together account for about half of the receptions on the team. The duo accounts for 2/3 of the touchdown receptions. The leading rusher is Conor Hundley, who has accounted for 883 yards. The Zips have a balanced attack which is close to 50-50. But the lion share of the offense comes from Woodson passing to Lane and Davis and from Hundley. The task for the Aggie defense is to shut these men down. The Zip offense hasn't done well when facing a quality defense. They scored 7 against Oklahoma, 7 against Pittsburgh, 12 against Ohio, 10 against Bowling Green, and 6 against Central Michigan.
With a healthy Chuckie Keeton, the Aggies should do well enough to win going away as long as they take care of the ball and don't get overconfident. The Zips could surprise them, but that's not what they do.
My prediction
Utah State 24 Akron 6
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. BYU
December 19, 2016
Let me get this out of the way first. Utah does not belong in the Las Vegas Bowl. But without Devontae Booker, they weren't that attractive. If Booker had remained healthy, Utah would probably be in the Alamo Bowl or perhaps even the Rose Bowl as they seem to have Stanford's number. With Booker healthy against UCLA, Utah is at least in the Championship game.
That being said, this is a fierce rivalry, but it all depends on whether or not BYU's head is in the game. It will be a close and fierce game if BYU's position coaches can properly prepare the players and can keep them focused.
But, we all know that Bronco Mendenhall is leaving Provo. We all know that some of the assistant coaches are going with him. We all know that the others who are going are worried about where they are going to work next year (Which means January). We know the players are distracted. And we all know how bad BYU looks when the team isn't prepared. And the Utes, they are going to be prepared.
Yes, I know that I have dedicated more space to Akron than to this rivalry game. The rivalry needed to take a hiatus. People take it too personally. This year, however, is not the time to do that. It could be an ugly game. After the game, please take a holiday fruitcake to your neighbor who roots for the other guys and bury the hatchet. And don't take the weed whacker that you were going to give to your brother-in-law back to Lowes because Tanner Mangum says something insensitive after the game. And shake hands with your Bishop on Sunday because he's still a good guy, even if he went to the other school. When it comes to what matters most, and that is not football, both schools are pretty good.
My prediction all depends on whether or not the Cougars really show up. Either way it's a Utah victory. I will therefore make 2 predictions. One close, and one not-so close.
If BYU shows up
Utah 21 BYU 19
If BYU does not show up
Utah 50 BYU 15
Friday, December 4, 2015
Saying Goodbye to Bronco
I had a hunch that one of the five football universities in our state would be saying goodbye to their head coach after this season. I was mildly surprised it was Mendenhall. If I was to list the 5 head coaches in order of most likely to leave after the season, Mendenall would have been near the bottom. And I would have listed him as more likely to retire rather than leave for another school.
But, in retrospect, it probably was time for Bronco to move on. He did well. He turned the BYU program around after 3 consecutive losing seasons and put the program back on the map. He deserves a lot of credit for what he has accomplished. Not many coaches can say they have been to a bowl every single season they coached. However, it does seem as if he has taken BYU as far as he can, and its time for someone to build on what he has done. If you are BYU fans, you hope that Tom Holmoe can find someone who will do just that.
BYU is a difficult place to coach. The expectations are high. They have a smaller recruiting pool than other schools because of the honor code. Not all LDS kids want to go to BYU and live up to those standards. Those that do, often find themselves living in a fishbowl with the eyes of the rest of the campus looking at them more intently than they do other students. In addition, the eyes of their rivals are looking at them off campus hoping to catching them getting in trouble. No wonder many LDS kids pass. Any misdoings become statewide news. Things that are winked at and even encouraged at other schools will get you in big trouble at BYU. It takes a lot for a coach to succeed there.
Given all of this, the short list of those who Holmoe will interview will be very short. I think that there are only three names on that list. Don't expect BYU to make a gimmicky hire like Steve Young or Ty Detmer. Don't expect Andy Reid to leave the Chiefs or Kyle Whittingham to leave Utah. Don't expect Coach Ken, who has a good thing going at Navy, to come to Provo. His style of play, a variation of the wishbone, is not a fit for the wide-open offense that BYU is known for. There are other men who could, at worse, continue the consistency that Mendenhall brought to BYU. There are those who can build on what he has done.
Whoever takes the reigns, he will have an experienced team to lead. Tanner Mangum will be a veteran sophomore, and he is one of 9 starters returning on offense. There will be 7 returning on defense. 21 offensive players on next years team were on the situational 2-deep for BYU this year. 15 2-deep players are due to return on defense. Mendenhall couldn't have left BYU in better shape.
Before giving my short list, I will list the criteria.
1. Active member (temple recommend holder) of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. (IE...the institution that sponsors BYU). If non member, will have to convince a lot of people that he will uphold the traditions and values of BYU.
2. Either college head coaching experience or experience as offensive, defensive or special teams coordinator.
3. Display good personnel management skills.
4. Must be affable and a good recruiter. If BYU is to get to the next level, they need to recruit better.
5. If possible, experience at a Power 5 school.
Short list:
1. Stanford Defense Coordinator Lance Anderson. Yes, he's the guy responsible for stealing all of the good recruits out of the beehive state. And if he can't get them to Stanford, he at least, and perhaps unintentionally so, gives them to confidence to believe that someone outside of the state may want them. Yes, Anderson is probably a big reason why 7 out of the top 10 Utah High School athletes left the state last year. Some went to Stanford, some went to other PAC-12 schools.
2. Oregon State Defensive Coordinator Kalani Sitake. Left Utah last season to join Gary Anderson at Oregon State. Considered by many to be ready to lead a program on his own. Young and very affable and a good recruiter. When he was at Utah, he recruited many players away from BYU who are now in the NFL including some guys named Kruger and Lotulelei. Families who are famous from switching from blue to red did so, in part, because of Sitake.
3. Current Offensive Coordinator/Assistant Head Coach Robert Anae. He's probably more of a default hire than anything else, and perhaps a little on the old side for a first time head coach, but still respected by the team. In spite of probably being the default guy, you could do much worse. And he would probably give BYU some consistency in the staff and prevent many player and assistant coach defections. At worst, he will continue Mendenhall's consistency.
But, in retrospect, it probably was time for Bronco to move on. He did well. He turned the BYU program around after 3 consecutive losing seasons and put the program back on the map. He deserves a lot of credit for what he has accomplished. Not many coaches can say they have been to a bowl every single season they coached. However, it does seem as if he has taken BYU as far as he can, and its time for someone to build on what he has done. If you are BYU fans, you hope that Tom Holmoe can find someone who will do just that.
BYU is a difficult place to coach. The expectations are high. They have a smaller recruiting pool than other schools because of the honor code. Not all LDS kids want to go to BYU and live up to those standards. Those that do, often find themselves living in a fishbowl with the eyes of the rest of the campus looking at them more intently than they do other students. In addition, the eyes of their rivals are looking at them off campus hoping to catching them getting in trouble. No wonder many LDS kids pass. Any misdoings become statewide news. Things that are winked at and even encouraged at other schools will get you in big trouble at BYU. It takes a lot for a coach to succeed there.
Given all of this, the short list of those who Holmoe will interview will be very short. I think that there are only three names on that list. Don't expect BYU to make a gimmicky hire like Steve Young or Ty Detmer. Don't expect Andy Reid to leave the Chiefs or Kyle Whittingham to leave Utah. Don't expect Coach Ken, who has a good thing going at Navy, to come to Provo. His style of play, a variation of the wishbone, is not a fit for the wide-open offense that BYU is known for. There are other men who could, at worse, continue the consistency that Mendenhall brought to BYU. There are those who can build on what he has done.
Whoever takes the reigns, he will have an experienced team to lead. Tanner Mangum will be a veteran sophomore, and he is one of 9 starters returning on offense. There will be 7 returning on defense. 21 offensive players on next years team were on the situational 2-deep for BYU this year. 15 2-deep players are due to return on defense. Mendenhall couldn't have left BYU in better shape.
Before giving my short list, I will list the criteria.
1. Active member (temple recommend holder) of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. (IE...the institution that sponsors BYU). If non member, will have to convince a lot of people that he will uphold the traditions and values of BYU.
2. Either college head coaching experience or experience as offensive, defensive or special teams coordinator.
3. Display good personnel management skills.
4. Must be affable and a good recruiter. If BYU is to get to the next level, they need to recruit better.
5. If possible, experience at a Power 5 school.
Short list:
1. Stanford Defense Coordinator Lance Anderson. Yes, he's the guy responsible for stealing all of the good recruits out of the beehive state. And if he can't get them to Stanford, he at least, and perhaps unintentionally so, gives them to confidence to believe that someone outside of the state may want them. Yes, Anderson is probably a big reason why 7 out of the top 10 Utah High School athletes left the state last year. Some went to Stanford, some went to other PAC-12 schools.
2. Oregon State Defensive Coordinator Kalani Sitake. Left Utah last season to join Gary Anderson at Oregon State. Considered by many to be ready to lead a program on his own. Young and very affable and a good recruiter. When he was at Utah, he recruited many players away from BYU who are now in the NFL including some guys named Kruger and Lotulelei. Families who are famous from switching from blue to red did so, in part, because of Sitake.
3. Current Offensive Coordinator/Assistant Head Coach Robert Anae. He's probably more of a default hire than anything else, and perhaps a little on the old side for a first time head coach, but still respected by the team. In spite of probably being the default guy, you could do much worse. And he would probably give BYU some consistency in the staff and prevent many player and assistant coach defections. At worst, he will continue Mendenhall's consistency.
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Was 2015 college football season successful for...
I backed off of this blog for a few weeks because my son returned home from his mission and I wanted some good family time. But I thought that I would begin again by talking about how the season went for each team in Utah. I want to answer one question...was the season as success. We will compare what we would have foreseen at the beginning of the season, had we known everything about the team an their opponents as we do now. For example, we probably would have started the season thinking that BYU and Michigan was a toss-up game. However, Michigan turned out to be better than we expected, had we known that, we would not have expected BYU to go into the Big House and win. We will begin with the FCS schools and work up.
Was the season a success for Weber State?
I don't know anyone who follows Weber State football who would think that the 2015 season was a failure by any stretch of the imagination. 2015 was the first winning football season since 2010, and feels real good after 3 consecutive double-digit loss seasons.
Best win: at Montana
Worst Loss: Southern Utah, I know that SUU was really good this year. But this is your big rival, and the game was at home. It should have at least been close.
What worked against them: Lack of experience and confidence, especially early on. Turnovers.
What worked for them: Tough defense and a solid running attack after the team gained confidence.
Expectation at the beginning of the season (Considering how the competition changed) Pessimistic: 4-7, Optimistic: 6-5
Actual record: 6-5
Game by game
At Oregon State: Expected Loss
At North Dakota State: Expected Loss
Sacramento State: Expected Win
Northern Colorado: Expected Win
Southern Utah: Toss-up Loss (Rivalry game at home)
Montana: Upset Win
North Dakota: Toss-up Win
Northern Arizona: Expected Loss
Eastern Washington: Expected Loss
UC Davis: Expected Win
Idaho State: Expected Win
Competition that was better than expected: Southern Utah
Competition that was not as good as expected: None
Strongest Opponent (FCS): North Dakota State
Weakest Opponent: UC Davis
Was the Season as success for Southern Utah
It is hard to classify any season where you win a conference championship as a failure. Because this hasn't happened in Cedar City very often, it is phenomenal. SUU, however, was one game away from having a much better post-season draw than they received. We know that Ammon Olsen was great. The question is: Will Ed Lamb be back in 2016?
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 4-7, Optimistic: 8-3
Actual Record: 8-3
Best win: At Montana State
Worst loss: At South Dakota State
What worked for them: Tough defense, solid special teams. Ammon Olsen, later in the season
What worked against them: Turnovers. Lack of confidence on the road.
Game by game
At Utah State: Expected Loss
At South Dakota State: Toss-up Loss
Northern Colorado: Expected Win
Brevard: Expected Win
At Weber State: Toss-up Win
Sacramento State: Expected Win
At UC Davis: Expected Win
Cal Poly: Toss-up Win
At Montana State: Upset Win
At Portland State: Toss-up Loss
Northern Arizona: Toss-up Win
Better than expected opponents: Weber State, Portland State
Not as good as expected opponents: Utah State, Montana State
Strongest Opponent (FCS) : Portland State
Weakest Opponent: Brevard
Was the Season Successful for Utah State?
If you are disappointed with how the season turned out from Utah State, you are probably not alone. It's not just what happened against BYU. When they beat Boise State, I thought, and I wasn't alone, that they would breeze through the rest of their conference schedule and wouldn't be challenged again until BYU came to Logan. But then they go an lose 3 of the next 4. Utah State is far enough removed from their days of futility that expectations are higher, as they should be. At least they finished bowl eligible, even if they end up going to Albuquerque for their bowl game.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic 5-7, Optimistic 9-3
Best Win: Boise State
Worst Loss: At Air Force
What worked for them: Defense, play calling, Kent Meyers when healthy, Chuckie when healthy
What worked against them: Injuries, trouble on the road, recovering from momentum-changing plays, running back contribution.
Actual Record: 6-6
Southern Utah: Expected Win
At Utah: Expected Loss
At Washington: Expected Loss
Colorado State: Expected Win
At Fresno State: Expected Win
Boise State: Upset Win
At San Diego State: Toss-up Loss
Wyoming: Expected Win
At New Mexico: Upset Loss
At Air Force: Toss-up Loss
Nevada: Toss-up Win
BYU: Toss-up Loss
Better than expected opponents: New Mexico, Air Force
Weaker than expected opponents: Boise State
Strongest Opponent: Utah
Weakest Opponent (FBS--And in this case, overall): Wyoming
Post Season Note: SI expect a rematch in the Armed Force Bowl--USU vs. Washington.
Was the season a success for the BYU Cougars?
Whether or not the 2015 football team was a success for BYU depends a lot of whether you are a glass half-empty or half-full person. On the half-full side, there were injuries, suspensions, and all sorts of other problems and the team still won 9 games. People on the other side of the coin will point to two almost wins as evidence things could have been better. What was expected to be a really tough schedule turned out to be manageable as teams like Nebraska and Boise State turned out not to be as good as expected. As for fan expectations, there is a level of obsession that turns into...well that is the topic for another blog.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 7-5. Optimistic: 10-2
Best Win: At Nebraska
Worst Loss: At Michigan
What worked: Tanner Mangum, receiving corps, Bronson Kafusi
What didn't work: Magic wasn't always there, especially on defense in 3 losses.
Actual Record: 9-3
Game by game:
At Nebraska: Toss-up Win
Boise State: Expected Win
At UCLA: Expected Loss
At Michigan: Expected Loss
Connecticut: Expected Win
East Carolina: Expected Win
Cincinnati: Expected Win
Wagner: Expected Win
At San Jose State: Expected Win
At (technically) Missouri: Toss-up Loss
Fresno State: Expected Win
At Utah State: Toss-up Win
Better than expected opposition: Michigan
Weaker than expected opposition: Nebraska, Boise State
Close win that should not have been so close: San Jose State
Strongest opponent: Michigan
Weakest opponent (FBS): Fresno State
Note: I said at the beginning of the year that what BYU needed to get into the Big 12 was to convince the members of the conference that BYU is the only choice. Getting shut out at The Big House may as well have been 6 losses. They didn't have to win that game, they only had to look respectable in losing. That didn't happen.
Was the season a success for the Utah Utes?
Utah is in the same boat as BYU. Whether or not fans see the season as a success depends on whether you are a glass half-empty or half-full type of person. But the season, you have to admit, was quite the roller coaster ride. And it was a fun one, depending on, as Bronco Mendenhall would put it, your level of investment in the program. And like a real roller coaster, the end of the season was a little flat, especially after the loss of Devontae Booker. It was a blow to a team that was overachieving all year.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 7-5, Optimistic: 8-4
Best Win: At Oregon
Worst Loss: UCLA
Actual Record: 9-3
Game by game
Michigan: Upset Win
Utah State: Expected Win
At Fresno State: Expected Win
At Oregon: Upset Win
California: Expected Win
Arizona State: Expected Win
At USC: Expected Loss
Oregon State: Expected Win
At Arizona: Upset loss
UCLA: Toss-up Loss
Colorado: Expected Win
Stronger than expected opposition: Michigan, California
Weaker than expected opposition: Fresno State, Oregon State
Strongest Opponent: Michigan
Weakest Opponent: Fresno State
Was the season a success for Weber State?
I don't know anyone who follows Weber State football who would think that the 2015 season was a failure by any stretch of the imagination. 2015 was the first winning football season since 2010, and feels real good after 3 consecutive double-digit loss seasons.
Best win: at Montana
Worst Loss: Southern Utah, I know that SUU was really good this year. But this is your big rival, and the game was at home. It should have at least been close.
What worked against them: Lack of experience and confidence, especially early on. Turnovers.
What worked for them: Tough defense and a solid running attack after the team gained confidence.
Expectation at the beginning of the season (Considering how the competition changed) Pessimistic: 4-7, Optimistic: 6-5
Actual record: 6-5
Game by game
At Oregon State: Expected Loss
At North Dakota State: Expected Loss
Sacramento State: Expected Win
Northern Colorado: Expected Win
Southern Utah: Toss-up Loss (Rivalry game at home)
Montana: Upset Win
North Dakota: Toss-up Win
Northern Arizona: Expected Loss
Eastern Washington: Expected Loss
UC Davis: Expected Win
Idaho State: Expected Win
Competition that was better than expected: Southern Utah
Competition that was not as good as expected: None
Strongest Opponent (FCS): North Dakota State
Weakest Opponent: UC Davis
Was the Season as success for Southern Utah
It is hard to classify any season where you win a conference championship as a failure. Because this hasn't happened in Cedar City very often, it is phenomenal. SUU, however, was one game away from having a much better post-season draw than they received. We know that Ammon Olsen was great. The question is: Will Ed Lamb be back in 2016?
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 4-7, Optimistic: 8-3
Actual Record: 8-3
Best win: At Montana State
Worst loss: At South Dakota State
What worked for them: Tough defense, solid special teams. Ammon Olsen, later in the season
What worked against them: Turnovers. Lack of confidence on the road.
Game by game
At Utah State: Expected Loss
At South Dakota State: Toss-up Loss
Northern Colorado: Expected Win
Brevard: Expected Win
At Weber State: Toss-up Win
Sacramento State: Expected Win
At UC Davis: Expected Win
Cal Poly: Toss-up Win
At Montana State: Upset Win
At Portland State: Toss-up Loss
Northern Arizona: Toss-up Win
Better than expected opponents: Weber State, Portland State
Not as good as expected opponents: Utah State, Montana State
Strongest Opponent (FCS) : Portland State
Weakest Opponent: Brevard
Was the Season Successful for Utah State?
If you are disappointed with how the season turned out from Utah State, you are probably not alone. It's not just what happened against BYU. When they beat Boise State, I thought, and I wasn't alone, that they would breeze through the rest of their conference schedule and wouldn't be challenged again until BYU came to Logan. But then they go an lose 3 of the next 4. Utah State is far enough removed from their days of futility that expectations are higher, as they should be. At least they finished bowl eligible, even if they end up going to Albuquerque for their bowl game.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic 5-7, Optimistic 9-3
Best Win: Boise State
Worst Loss: At Air Force
What worked for them: Defense, play calling, Kent Meyers when healthy, Chuckie when healthy
What worked against them: Injuries, trouble on the road, recovering from momentum-changing plays, running back contribution.
Actual Record: 6-6
Southern Utah: Expected Win
At Utah: Expected Loss
At Washington: Expected Loss
Colorado State: Expected Win
At Fresno State: Expected Win
Boise State: Upset Win
At San Diego State: Toss-up Loss
Wyoming: Expected Win
At New Mexico: Upset Loss
At Air Force: Toss-up Loss
Nevada: Toss-up Win
BYU: Toss-up Loss
Better than expected opponents: New Mexico, Air Force
Weaker than expected opponents: Boise State
Strongest Opponent: Utah
Weakest Opponent (FBS--And in this case, overall): Wyoming
Post Season Note: SI expect a rematch in the Armed Force Bowl--USU vs. Washington.
Was the season a success for the BYU Cougars?
Whether or not the 2015 football team was a success for BYU depends a lot of whether you are a glass half-empty or half-full person. On the half-full side, there were injuries, suspensions, and all sorts of other problems and the team still won 9 games. People on the other side of the coin will point to two almost wins as evidence things could have been better. What was expected to be a really tough schedule turned out to be manageable as teams like Nebraska and Boise State turned out not to be as good as expected. As for fan expectations, there is a level of obsession that turns into...well that is the topic for another blog.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 7-5. Optimistic: 10-2
Best Win: At Nebraska
Worst Loss: At Michigan
What worked: Tanner Mangum, receiving corps, Bronson Kafusi
What didn't work: Magic wasn't always there, especially on defense in 3 losses.
Actual Record: 9-3
Game by game:
At Nebraska: Toss-up Win
Boise State: Expected Win
At UCLA: Expected Loss
At Michigan: Expected Loss
Connecticut: Expected Win
East Carolina: Expected Win
Cincinnati: Expected Win
Wagner: Expected Win
At San Jose State: Expected Win
At (technically) Missouri: Toss-up Loss
Fresno State: Expected Win
At Utah State: Toss-up Win
Better than expected opposition: Michigan
Weaker than expected opposition: Nebraska, Boise State
Close win that should not have been so close: San Jose State
Strongest opponent: Michigan
Weakest opponent (FBS): Fresno State
Note: I said at the beginning of the year that what BYU needed to get into the Big 12 was to convince the members of the conference that BYU is the only choice. Getting shut out at The Big House may as well have been 6 losses. They didn't have to win that game, they only had to look respectable in losing. That didn't happen.
Was the season a success for the Utah Utes?
Utah is in the same boat as BYU. Whether or not fans see the season as a success depends on whether you are a glass half-empty or half-full type of person. But the season, you have to admit, was quite the roller coaster ride. And it was a fun one, depending on, as Bronco Mendenhall would put it, your level of investment in the program. And like a real roller coaster, the end of the season was a little flat, especially after the loss of Devontae Booker. It was a blow to a team that was overachieving all year.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 7-5, Optimistic: 8-4
Best Win: At Oregon
Worst Loss: UCLA
Actual Record: 9-3
Game by game
Michigan: Upset Win
Utah State: Expected Win
At Fresno State: Expected Win
At Oregon: Upset Win
California: Expected Win
Arizona State: Expected Win
At USC: Expected Loss
Oregon State: Expected Win
At Arizona: Upset loss
UCLA: Toss-up Loss
Colorado: Expected Win
Stronger than expected opposition: Michigan, California
Weaker than expected opposition: Fresno State, Oregon State
Strongest Opponent: Michigan
Weakest Opponent: Fresno State
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Predictions/Expectations November 6/7
It's another swell week of college football ahead of us, and we are now in the critical last 1/3 of the football season. Here is how I think the rest of the season will go.
BYU Cougars
Current Record: 6-2
Probable Wins
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up
Missouri
Utah State
Optimistic prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic prediction: 8-4
This week's game:
Every year, a Bronco Mendenhall coached team will lose a game they should win. No one expected BYU to beat UCLA or Michigan, and therefore, that loss hasn't happened yet. San Jose State is built a lot like UCLA, but they are not as deep. BYU should beat them handily, but this does have the earmarks of one of those upset games. Again, I don't think that BYU will lose, I'm just saying don't be surprised if something else happens.
My prediction: BYU 42 SJSU 28
Post-season: Vegas
Utah Utes
Current Record: 7-1
Predicted wins:
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
Toss Up:
UCLA
Optimistic Prediction: 11-1
Pessimistic Prediction: 10-2
This week's game:
Utah has a chance to get another monkey off of their back this weekend in Seattle. The Utah Utes have NEVER beaten the Washington Huskies in 8 previous tries. Also curious, 7 of the 8 prior meetings have been in Seattle, and only 1 in Salt Lake City. However, Kyle Whittingham is probably focused on this week's game and not on the history and has probably instructed his team to do the same. The Huskies are good enough to beat the Utes, even with a 4-4 team taking on a 7-1 team. The difference should be special teams, and Ute fans know who that favors.
Utah 27 Washington 24
Post season smells like roses.
Utah State Aggies
Current Record 5-3
Projected Wins
New Mexico
Air Force
Nevada
Toss Up
BYU
Optimistic Prediction: 9-3
Pessimistic Prediction: 8-4
This week's game:
This is another game where the Aggies could easily look past to their detriment. However, it's not the Lobos year, nor the year before that...it's like sometime about 5 years ago, New Mexico and Utah State switched.
USU 38 UNM 10
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record: 6-2
Projected wins:
Northern Arizona
Toss Up:
Montana State
Portland State
Optimistic Prediction: 9-2
Pessimistic Prediction: 7-4
This week's game:
Every week I say that SUU is due for a close one, and every week they blow someone out of the water. This week, they are really going to be in a barn burner. At least they hope it's a barn burner, because the weather in Bozeman at this time of year is very cold. Actually, it won't be too bad, a high of 43. Could be worse.
SUU 31 MSU 28
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record 4-5
Projected wins
UC Davis
Idaho State
Projected finish: 6-5
This week's game:
WSU 48 UCD 10
BYU Cougars
Current Record: 6-2
Probable Wins
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up
Missouri
Utah State
Optimistic prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic prediction: 8-4
This week's game:
Every year, a Bronco Mendenhall coached team will lose a game they should win. No one expected BYU to beat UCLA or Michigan, and therefore, that loss hasn't happened yet. San Jose State is built a lot like UCLA, but they are not as deep. BYU should beat them handily, but this does have the earmarks of one of those upset games. Again, I don't think that BYU will lose, I'm just saying don't be surprised if something else happens.
My prediction: BYU 42 SJSU 28
Post-season: Vegas
Utah Utes
Current Record: 7-1
Predicted wins:
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
Toss Up:
UCLA
Optimistic Prediction: 11-1
Pessimistic Prediction: 10-2
This week's game:
Utah has a chance to get another monkey off of their back this weekend in Seattle. The Utah Utes have NEVER beaten the Washington Huskies in 8 previous tries. Also curious, 7 of the 8 prior meetings have been in Seattle, and only 1 in Salt Lake City. However, Kyle Whittingham is probably focused on this week's game and not on the history and has probably instructed his team to do the same. The Huskies are good enough to beat the Utes, even with a 4-4 team taking on a 7-1 team. The difference should be special teams, and Ute fans know who that favors.
Utah 27 Washington 24
Post season smells like roses.
Utah State Aggies
Current Record 5-3
Projected Wins
New Mexico
Air Force
Nevada
Toss Up
BYU
Optimistic Prediction: 9-3
Pessimistic Prediction: 8-4
This week's game:
This is another game where the Aggies could easily look past to their detriment. However, it's not the Lobos year, nor the year before that...it's like sometime about 5 years ago, New Mexico and Utah State switched.
USU 38 UNM 10
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record: 6-2
Projected wins:
Northern Arizona
Toss Up:
Montana State
Portland State
Optimistic Prediction: 9-2
Pessimistic Prediction: 7-4
This week's game:
Every week I say that SUU is due for a close one, and every week they blow someone out of the water. This week, they are really going to be in a barn burner. At least they hope it's a barn burner, because the weather in Bozeman at this time of year is very cold. Actually, it won't be too bad, a high of 43. Could be worse.
SUU 31 MSU 28
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record 4-5
Projected wins
UC Davis
Idaho State
Projected finish: 6-5
This week's game:
WSU 48 UCD 10
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Swagger Report--After Halloween is over
Utah State 58 Wyoming 27
The USU Aggies added more misery to what has already been a long season for the Wyoming Cowboys and rolled the visitors from Laramie. Devante Mays was one of many offensive heroes for USU as he ran for 176 yards. USU has not lost at home since Kyle Van Noy dismantled them two years ago.
USU MVP: RB Devante Mays
Utah 27 Oregon State 12
Sometimes when you have a bounce back game you need to win ugly. It wasn't a pretty win for the Utes, but it was a dominating win. It was much closer statistically than was indicated by the final score, proving what really matters in football, how often the fans get a hot dog break. Now, with the USC loss officially behind them, they can concentrate on the Huskies.
Utah MVP: RB Devontae Booker
Southern Utah 54 Cal Poly 37
The Thunderbirds came a step closer to the Big Sky Conference championship this weekend with a big win over Cal Poly. The difference, as usually for SUU, was the defense, scoring 21 points. Without the defensive effort, the Mustangs would have won.
SUU MVP: LB Mike Needham
Eastern Washington 14 Weber State 13
WSU held EWU to their worst offensive outing in 12 years, holding the Eagles to just 189 yards. WSU missed long field goals that would have won the game for them, but you can't fault PK Josh Kaelamakia's effort. This year, at least Weber State has risen from conference doormat to being the team that others can't look past. WSU closes out the season with two games at home, winning both would give the a winning record for the season, something that they haven't done for 5 years.
WSU MVP: S Josh Burton
The USU Aggies added more misery to what has already been a long season for the Wyoming Cowboys and rolled the visitors from Laramie. Devante Mays was one of many offensive heroes for USU as he ran for 176 yards. USU has not lost at home since Kyle Van Noy dismantled them two years ago.
USU MVP: RB Devante Mays
Utah 27 Oregon State 12
Sometimes when you have a bounce back game you need to win ugly. It wasn't a pretty win for the Utes, but it was a dominating win. It was much closer statistically than was indicated by the final score, proving what really matters in football, how often the fans get a hot dog break. Now, with the USC loss officially behind them, they can concentrate on the Huskies.
Utah MVP: RB Devontae Booker
Southern Utah 54 Cal Poly 37
The Thunderbirds came a step closer to the Big Sky Conference championship this weekend with a big win over Cal Poly. The difference, as usually for SUU, was the defense, scoring 21 points. Without the defensive effort, the Mustangs would have won.
SUU MVP: LB Mike Needham
Eastern Washington 14 Weber State 13
WSU held EWU to their worst offensive outing in 12 years, holding the Eagles to just 189 yards. WSU missed long field goals that would have won the game for them, but you can't fault PK Josh Kaelamakia's effort. This year, at least Weber State has risen from conference doormat to being the team that others can't look past. WSU closes out the season with two games at home, winning both would give the a winning record for the season, something that they haven't done for 5 years.
WSU MVP: S Josh Burton
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Predictions/Expectations for Halloween 2015
All Hallowed's Eve can bring a few surprises in the college football world. Remember that BYU loss to UTEP in 1985? Yep, it was on Halloween. I wonder what is in store for our local football teams.
BYU Cougars
Current record 6-2
Note: The Cougars have a real bye week this week. There won't be any funky upsets this year. But the week off can be scary for fans. Last time there was a bye week around Halloween, BYU lost a couple of players to suspension and dismissal. Stay away from the donut shop, you Cougars.
Predicted wins:
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up:
Missouri
Utah State
Optimistic prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic prediction: 8-4
Post-season: Vegas
Utah Utes
Current Record 6-1
Note: If Utah was going to lose a game and stay in the playoff chase, that was the game to lose. They drop to 13. Teams ranked ahead of them will lose. Utah will move up, provided they keep winning. Of course, we all thought the Utes would win this one.
Predicted wins:
Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
Toss Up:
UCLA
Optimistic prediction: 11-1
Pessimistic prediction: 10-2
This week's game:
Gary Anderson seems to have Utah's number, but that number will not be up this year. Oregon State doesn't have the talent to run with anyone in the PAC-12 this year.
Utah 45 OSU 10
Post-Season:
PAC-12 championship vs. Stanford, probably a NY-6 Bowl, Rose Bowl if they win.
Utah State Aggies
Current Record 4-3
Note: Perhaps the Aggies were reading this blog last week. I think that we all thought that they would breeze through the conference schedule, including SDSU. Well, that is where I was wrong.
Predicted Wins
Wyoming
New Mexico
Nevada
Toss Up
Air Force
BYU
Optimistic Prediction: 9-3
Pessimistic Prediction: 7-5
This week's game:
Yea, there is a reason why the play the game. There is a reason why they play the game. There is a reason why they play the game...
USU 45 Wyo 16
Post Season: Poinsettia Bowl
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record 5-2
Predicted Wins
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Montana State
Portland State
Optimistic Prediction 9-2
Pessimistic Prediction 7-4
This week's game
It not going to be so easy for SUU the rest of the season. Hopefully, they have not forgotten how to fight. But they haven't been in a close game since that opening night in Logan. This game should be a fight.
SUU 24 CPSLO 14
Post Season: SUU will need to win 3 of their remaining 4 games to get into the post-season. If they win the right three games, they may get to host a first round game.
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record: 4-4
Notes: It's still a rag-tag team in Ogden, and it's a team that has already exceeded most expectations.
Predicted Wins:
UC Davis
Idaho State
Predicted Loss:
Eastern Washington
Expected Outcome: 6-5
This week's game:
The #5 Eagles are not easy to beet in Cheney, even for a team more highly reguarded than Weber State. The team has no reason to hang their heads. And they might catch those guys looking past them. Might.
EWU 45 WSU 21
There will likely be no post-season for WSU.
BYU Cougars
Current record 6-2
Note: The Cougars have a real bye week this week. There won't be any funky upsets this year. But the week off can be scary for fans. Last time there was a bye week around Halloween, BYU lost a couple of players to suspension and dismissal. Stay away from the donut shop, you Cougars.
Predicted wins:
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up:
Missouri
Utah State
Optimistic prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic prediction: 8-4
Post-season: Vegas
Utah Utes
Current Record 6-1
Note: If Utah was going to lose a game and stay in the playoff chase, that was the game to lose. They drop to 13. Teams ranked ahead of them will lose. Utah will move up, provided they keep winning. Of course, we all thought the Utes would win this one.
Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
Toss Up:
UCLA
Optimistic prediction: 11-1
Pessimistic prediction: 10-2
This week's game:
Gary Anderson seems to have Utah's number, but that number will not be up this year. Oregon State doesn't have the talent to run with anyone in the PAC-12 this year.
Utah 45 OSU 10
Post-Season:
PAC-12 championship vs. Stanford, probably a NY-6 Bowl, Rose Bowl if they win.
Utah State Aggies
Current Record 4-3
Note: Perhaps the Aggies were reading this blog last week. I think that we all thought that they would breeze through the conference schedule, including SDSU. Well, that is where I was wrong.
Predicted Wins
Wyoming
New Mexico
Nevada
Toss Up
Air Force
BYU
Optimistic Prediction: 9-3
Pessimistic Prediction: 7-5
This week's game:
Yea, there is a reason why the play the game. There is a reason why they play the game. There is a reason why they play the game...
USU 45 Wyo 16
Post Season: Poinsettia Bowl
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record 5-2
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Montana State
Portland State
Optimistic Prediction 9-2
Pessimistic Prediction 7-4
This week's game
It not going to be so easy for SUU the rest of the season. Hopefully, they have not forgotten how to fight. But they haven't been in a close game since that opening night in Logan. This game should be a fight.
SUU 24 CPSLO 14
Post Season: SUU will need to win 3 of their remaining 4 games to get into the post-season. If they win the right three games, they may get to host a first round game.
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record: 4-4
Notes: It's still a rag-tag team in Ogden, and it's a team that has already exceeded most expectations.
Predicted Wins:
UC Davis
Idaho State
Predicted Loss:
Eastern Washington
Expected Outcome: 6-5
This week's game:
The #5 Eagles are not easy to beet in Cheney, even for a team more highly reguarded than Weber State. The team has no reason to hang their heads. And they might catch those guys looking past them. Might.
EWU 45 WSU 21
There will likely be no post-season for WSU.
Monday, October 26, 2015
Swagger Report October 25, 2015...The Day of Reckoning has Arrived
Someone once asked me, "don't you ever get tired of being wrong?" The great think about Sport is that it is unpredictable in nature. It wouldn't be any fun to watch if it wasn't.
USC 42 Utah 24
I'm glad that not everyone is panicked about this one. Was Utah really going to be undefeated this season. If you had one game to lose, if you are a Ute, it would be this one. There is enough time left in the season to make up ground. If Utah can get back to the Top 5 by the end of the regular season, they still have a good chance to make the 4-team playoff, or at least come out smelling like roses (wink, wink). As long as they win out, and especially as long as they do not lose to someone like Colorado, their post-season standing will be good.
Utah MVP: WR Brittan Covey
San Diego State 48 Utah State 14
This wasn't entirely Utah State being burned out emotionally after the big win over Boise State the week before. One must give the Aztecs and Donnel Pumphrey proper credit. They are a talented team, and will probably only get better as the years go on, especially once the Chargers leave San Diego next season for Los Angeles. It really wasn't just Pumphrey; the only running game Utah State has had all season has been Kent Meyers. Without any production from other backs in the backfield, USU may be lucky not to trip on any other landmines before the end of the season. It is also easy to get lulled to sleep when playing in the MW. There are two virtual bye weeks, games against Wyoming and New Mexico before USU faces another quality team. The key will be to stay focused. This might be the first of three games USU gets in San Diego this year.
USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers
BYU 70 Wagner 6
Speaking of a virtual bye week, BYU's came in the form of a game against FCS Wagner, from Staten Island. The Cougars took care of business and got out of the game without any major injuries. Then a real bye week before traveling to San Jose. Cougar fans should remember what happened the last time they took on the Spartans in the Bay Area.
BYU MVP: QB Beau Hodge
Southern Utah 34 UC Davis 6
What is wrong with the T-Brids? They only scored 34 points against the UCD Aggies. That should be just fine considering that the season now gets much more difficult. Ammon Olsen has been getting better as the season has progressed, and the blowouts of the last four games should give the team ample health and confidence as they head into a key stretch that includes games against Montana State, Cal Poly and Portland State. The Big Sky Conference Championship and a seeding in the 2015 NCAA playoffs are at stake.
SUU MVP: Ammon Olsen
Northern Arizona 52 Weber State 36
Never a disappointment when these two hook up at the Walkup Skydome. Unfortunately, almost doesn't count in football, but again, Weber is showing improvement over the past few seasons. If this game had ended 2-minutes earlier, it would not have looked so lop-sided...when the score was 42-36.
WSU MVP: QB Jaidrian Clark
USC 42 Utah 24
I'm glad that not everyone is panicked about this one. Was Utah really going to be undefeated this season. If you had one game to lose, if you are a Ute, it would be this one. There is enough time left in the season to make up ground. If Utah can get back to the Top 5 by the end of the regular season, they still have a good chance to make the 4-team playoff, or at least come out smelling like roses (wink, wink). As long as they win out, and especially as long as they do not lose to someone like Colorado, their post-season standing will be good.
Utah MVP: WR Brittan Covey
San Diego State 48 Utah State 14
This wasn't entirely Utah State being burned out emotionally after the big win over Boise State the week before. One must give the Aztecs and Donnel Pumphrey proper credit. They are a talented team, and will probably only get better as the years go on, especially once the Chargers leave San Diego next season for Los Angeles. It really wasn't just Pumphrey; the only running game Utah State has had all season has been Kent Meyers. Without any production from other backs in the backfield, USU may be lucky not to trip on any other landmines before the end of the season. It is also easy to get lulled to sleep when playing in the MW. There are two virtual bye weeks, games against Wyoming and New Mexico before USU faces another quality team. The key will be to stay focused. This might be the first of three games USU gets in San Diego this year.
USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers
BYU 70 Wagner 6
Speaking of a virtual bye week, BYU's came in the form of a game against FCS Wagner, from Staten Island. The Cougars took care of business and got out of the game without any major injuries. Then a real bye week before traveling to San Jose. Cougar fans should remember what happened the last time they took on the Spartans in the Bay Area.
BYU MVP: QB Beau Hodge
Southern Utah 34 UC Davis 6
What is wrong with the T-Brids? They only scored 34 points against the UCD Aggies. That should be just fine considering that the season now gets much more difficult. Ammon Olsen has been getting better as the season has progressed, and the blowouts of the last four games should give the team ample health and confidence as they head into a key stretch that includes games against Montana State, Cal Poly and Portland State. The Big Sky Conference Championship and a seeding in the 2015 NCAA playoffs are at stake.
SUU MVP: Ammon Olsen
Northern Arizona 52 Weber State 36
Never a disappointment when these two hook up at the Walkup Skydome. Unfortunately, almost doesn't count in football, but again, Weber is showing improvement over the past few seasons. If this game had ended 2-minutes earlier, it would not have looked so lop-sided...when the score was 42-36.
WSU MVP: QB Jaidrian Clark
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Predictions/Expectations....For October 24
BYU Cougars
Current Record 5-2
Notes: Another suspension on defense should be things interesting going down the stretch. Ah heck, who am I kidding? There isn't going to be much very interesting in Provo until they travel to Kansas City to take on Missou. That is enough time to get backups ready and confident. In other news...
Probable Wins:
Wagner
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up:
Missouri
Utah State
Optimistic Prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic Prediction: 8-4
Post-Season Outlook: Likely Las Vegas
This week's game:
BYU 65 Wagner 3
Utah Utes
Current Record 6-0
Notes: Utah, at #3, is the highest ranked team to be listed as an underdog in Vegas. This simply means that more people are betting on the Trojans than the Utes this week. However, I still would not recommend this as an investment strategy. In this one, anything could happen.
Probable Wins:
Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
Toss Up:
USC
UCLA
Optimistic Prediction: 12-0
Pessimistic Prediction: 10-2
Post-Season Outlook: PAC-12 championship game vs. Stanford at Santa Clara, CA. Bowl, anyone's guess at this point.
This week's game:
Being the head coach at USC is kind of like being Satan's major domo in Hell. There is no room for failure and no margin of error. That is why people would be unwise to think that this is automatic win for anyone. Utah is the real deal, and USC should still be respected. The more talented team is the Trojans. But that doesn't matter a who lot this week. Especially if they can't stop Mr. Booker.
Utah 24 USC 21
Utah State Aggies
Current Record: 4-2
Notes: After blowing out Boise State in Logan, the Aggies are ready for a NY-6 Bowl, as soon as they climb the rankings and get ranked ahead of Houston, Memphis, Temple and Toledo. Three members of that quartet are in the same conference, are unbeaten and haven't played each-other yet. In other news, Meyers is doing so well, why start Chukie now?
Probable Wins:
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
Air Force
Nevada
Toss Up:
BYU
Optimistic Prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic Prediction: 9-3
Post season outlook: Unless those mentioned in the paragraph above lose twice, Aggies fans are looking to spend the holidays in San Diego.
This week's game:
The Aggies travel to San Diego, at school that USU has only beaten once in their prior 11 meetings. They met in San Diego in 2010 and were on the short end of a 41-7 drubbing. Circumstances have changed, somewhat, since then. I don't think this will be so easy for SDSU this time.
USU 32 SDSU 24
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record: 4-2
Notes: I do not think that 4 consecutive wins, each by 40+ points, has yet got the attention of anyone outside of SUU's next opponent. The T-Birds are still outside the top-25. It probably won't help a lot to do the same this week, as the opponent is 1-6 UC Davis. However, everyone will notice if they lose. But don't worry, there will be opportunities to impress the poll voters yet this season.
Probable Wins:
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Probable Loss:
Portland State
Toss Up:
Cal Poly
Montana State
Optimists Prediction: 8-3
Pessimists Prediction: 6-5
This week's game:
SUU 38 UCD 3
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record: 4-3
Notes: If WSU doesn't score another touchdown this year, and that is not completely outside the realm of possibility (We all know what they did against SUU.), then this season has already been a success. After 3 consecutive seasons with only 2 victories, WSU is now over .500 past the midway point of the season for the first time since 2010. They will need a little bit more luck to get their first post-season appearance since 2008.
Probable Wins:
UC Davis
Idaho State
Probable Loss:
Eastern Washington
Toss Up:
Northern Arizona
Optimists Prediction: 7-4
Pessimists Prediction: 6-5
This Weeks Game:
It is always fun whenever WSU travels to the Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff to take on the Lumberjacks. Although this year's game should be more of a defensive battle than in past seasons.
NAU 17 WSU 13
Current Record 5-2
Notes: Another suspension on defense should be things interesting going down the stretch. Ah heck, who am I kidding? There isn't going to be much very interesting in Provo until they travel to Kansas City to take on Missou. That is enough time to get backups ready and confident. In other news...
Probable Wins:
Wagner
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up:
Missouri
Utah State
Optimistic Prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic Prediction: 8-4
Post-Season Outlook: Likely Las Vegas
This week's game:
BYU 65 Wagner 3
Utah Utes
Current Record 6-0
Notes: Utah, at #3, is the highest ranked team to be listed as an underdog in Vegas. This simply means that more people are betting on the Trojans than the Utes this week. However, I still would not recommend this as an investment strategy. In this one, anything could happen.
Probable Wins:
Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
Toss Up:
USC
UCLA
Optimistic Prediction: 12-0
Pessimistic Prediction: 10-2
Post-Season Outlook: PAC-12 championship game vs. Stanford at Santa Clara, CA. Bowl, anyone's guess at this point.
This week's game:
Being the head coach at USC is kind of like being Satan's major domo in Hell. There is no room for failure and no margin of error. That is why people would be unwise to think that this is automatic win for anyone. Utah is the real deal, and USC should still be respected. The more talented team is the Trojans. But that doesn't matter a who lot this week. Especially if they can't stop Mr. Booker.
Utah 24 USC 21
Utah State Aggies
Current Record: 4-2
Notes: After blowing out Boise State in Logan, the Aggies are ready for a NY-6 Bowl, as soon as they climb the rankings and get ranked ahead of Houston, Memphis, Temple and Toledo. Three members of that quartet are in the same conference, are unbeaten and haven't played each-other yet. In other news, Meyers is doing so well, why start Chukie now?
Probable Wins:
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
Air Force
Nevada
Toss Up:
BYU
Optimistic Prediction: 10-2
Pessimistic Prediction: 9-3
Post season outlook: Unless those mentioned in the paragraph above lose twice, Aggies fans are looking to spend the holidays in San Diego.
This week's game:
The Aggies travel to San Diego, at school that USU has only beaten once in their prior 11 meetings. They met in San Diego in 2010 and were on the short end of a 41-7 drubbing. Circumstances have changed, somewhat, since then. I don't think this will be so easy for SDSU this time.
USU 32 SDSU 24
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record: 4-2
Notes: I do not think that 4 consecutive wins, each by 40+ points, has yet got the attention of anyone outside of SUU's next opponent. The T-Birds are still outside the top-25. It probably won't help a lot to do the same this week, as the opponent is 1-6 UC Davis. However, everyone will notice if they lose. But don't worry, there will be opportunities to impress the poll voters yet this season.
Probable Wins:
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Probable Loss:
Portland State
Toss Up:
Cal Poly
Montana State
Optimists Prediction: 8-3
Pessimists Prediction: 6-5
This week's game:
SUU 38 UCD 3
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record: 4-3
Notes: If WSU doesn't score another touchdown this year, and that is not completely outside the realm of possibility (We all know what they did against SUU.), then this season has already been a success. After 3 consecutive seasons with only 2 victories, WSU is now over .500 past the midway point of the season for the first time since 2010. They will need a little bit more luck to get their first post-season appearance since 2008.
Probable Wins:
UC Davis
Idaho State
Probable Loss:
Eastern Washington
Toss Up:
Northern Arizona
Optimists Prediction: 7-4
Pessimists Prediction: 6-5
This Weeks Game:
It is always fun whenever WSU travels to the Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff to take on the Lumberjacks. Although this year's game should be more of a defensive battle than in past seasons.
NAU 17 WSU 13
Sunday, October 18, 2015
Swagger Report...October 17, 2015
In the State of Utah, we love winners...who doesn't. But we all were winners this week. And we had three 4th quarter comeback wins and 2 blowouts.
BYU 38 Cincinnati 24
For 45 minutes, it looked like the Bearcats would rule the day or the cats who are not the love child of some ungodly union. But Tanner Mangum has ice water running through his veins. But averaging out his game, he was awful for 45 minutes and spectacular in the final act. Particularly on the 4th quarter touchdown pass to Kurtz, which traveled 50 in the air. The only offensive player who was consistent for BYU was WR Nick Kurtz.
BYU MVP: WR Nick Kurtz
Utah State 52 Boise State 20
Who needs Chukie Keeton when your defense can produce 8 turnovers? Even I could lead an offense with that kind of an advantage. I'm not sure if this was a case of Boise not properly prepared for the game or if the Broncos had turkey sandwiches for their pre-game meal. It certainly looked as if the once-mighty Broncos just sleep-walked their way through this game, and were shell-shocked by half time. The MVP for this one goes to Ricky Ali'ifua who got the whole thing started.
USU MVP: DE Ricky Ali'ifua
Utah 32 Arizona State 18
I can think of a way to bring Utah fans back to earth...this game was so eerily similar to BYUs win over Cincinnati. OK, you probably don't care. What will probably make you happy is that Devontae Booker, according to ESPN, has cracked the top 6 of the Heisman race. Of course, he would need four people to suffer season-ending injuries to have a chance at winning, but it shows that the Utes are getting a lot of national attention. What really matters is where Utah is ranked when it is all said and done.
Utah MVP: RB Devontae Booker
SUU 44 Sacramento State 0
The Thunderbirds continue their roll through their schedule with their 4th consecutive blowout. It brings a lot of confidence and high expectations, something that fans should be weary of. It will not be this easy going forward as the meat of the conference schedule is now upon them. OK, maybe there will be one more easy game before things get much more difficult. Currently, SUU is in 1st place in the Big Sky Conference.
SUU MVP: QB Ammon Olsen
Weber State 25 North Dakota 24
Weber State's offense finally came to life this season, as the 'Cats turned a 17-3 deficit into a 25-24 victory. This moves WSU to above .500 for the first time in 5 seasons. WSU is still in contention for the Big Sky Conference race. They are currently in 2nd, but trail SUU who owns the tiebreaker. The Big Sky Conference Champion gets an automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs.
WSU MVP: QB Jadrian Clark
BYU 38 Cincinnati 24
For 45 minutes, it looked like the Bearcats would rule the day or the cats who are not the love child of some ungodly union. But Tanner Mangum has ice water running through his veins. But averaging out his game, he was awful for 45 minutes and spectacular in the final act. Particularly on the 4th quarter touchdown pass to Kurtz, which traveled 50 in the air. The only offensive player who was consistent for BYU was WR Nick Kurtz.
BYU MVP: WR Nick Kurtz
Utah State 52 Boise State 20
Who needs Chukie Keeton when your defense can produce 8 turnovers? Even I could lead an offense with that kind of an advantage. I'm not sure if this was a case of Boise not properly prepared for the game or if the Broncos had turkey sandwiches for their pre-game meal. It certainly looked as if the once-mighty Broncos just sleep-walked their way through this game, and were shell-shocked by half time. The MVP for this one goes to Ricky Ali'ifua who got the whole thing started.
USU MVP: DE Ricky Ali'ifua
Utah 32 Arizona State 18
I can think of a way to bring Utah fans back to earth...this game was so eerily similar to BYUs win over Cincinnati. OK, you probably don't care. What will probably make you happy is that Devontae Booker, according to ESPN, has cracked the top 6 of the Heisman race. Of course, he would need four people to suffer season-ending injuries to have a chance at winning, but it shows that the Utes are getting a lot of national attention. What really matters is where Utah is ranked when it is all said and done.
Utah MVP: RB Devontae Booker
SUU 44 Sacramento State 0
The Thunderbirds continue their roll through their schedule with their 4th consecutive blowout. It brings a lot of confidence and high expectations, something that fans should be weary of. It will not be this easy going forward as the meat of the conference schedule is now upon them. OK, maybe there will be one more easy game before things get much more difficult. Currently, SUU is in 1st place in the Big Sky Conference.
SUU MVP: QB Ammon Olsen
Weber State 25 North Dakota 24
Weber State's offense finally came to life this season, as the 'Cats turned a 17-3 deficit into a 25-24 victory. This moves WSU to above .500 for the first time in 5 seasons. WSU is still in contention for the Big Sky Conference race. They are currently in 2nd, but trail SUU who owns the tiebreaker. The Big Sky Conference Champion gets an automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs.
WSU MVP: QB Jadrian Clark
Saturday, October 17, 2015
The Effect of Utah State's Win over Boise State
Let me first say that I was very impressed by how Utah State crushed Boise State on Friday night in Logan. Forcing 8 turnovers is quite the defensive feat. I also expect that Utah State will breeze through the rest of their conference schedule, with the only real test being BYU on the last weekend of the regular season. And I expect that the MW Championship game will be in Logan, which USU will also win easily. The game between BYU and USU in Logan will likely feature two ranked teams, if BYU gets by Missouri in Kansas City four weeks from Today. (Before BYU travels to Missou, they have FCS Wagner and a bye week followed by a trip to San Jose.)
But the reality is that USU probably cost the MW a chance at a big payday. I do not foresee a 2-loss Utah State being chosen for the Fiesta Bowl over an unbeaten or 1-loss Houston or Memphis or Temple. The AAC is simply a better conference than the MW this year. Only if this trio ends up losing 2 or more games by the end of the season will the playoff committee consider the Aggies. I am not saying that USU does not deserve the honor, but there will likely be a team emerge for the AAC which will deserve it more. Even if the game in Logan between the Aggies is a showdown between 2 ranked teams and college game day is there, USU will not get to the Fiesta Bowl if Houston remains unbeaten.
There is the outside possibility that the Playoff Committee will select two teams from the G-5 conferences. However, you would probably get better odds of the Jazz winning the NBA title this season than that happening. There are a lot of P5 schools still unbeaten this late into the season, and the committee will have a lot good choices. Is is outside of the realm of possibility? Of course not. We are only halfway through the season. But the chances are slim.
The other problem for USU is Utah. Not that the Utes dealt USU a loss, but that Utah has real possibility of playing in the Fiesta Bowl this year. (Winning the PAC-12 south, but losing to Stanford in the championship.) The Committee is not going to put a USU-Utah rematch in the Fiesta Bowl.
Here is what I Foresee: the chairpersons of both the Las Vegas Bowl and Hawaii Bowl will be in Logan on November 28. If BYU wins, then the Cougars will immediately and officially be invited to the Las Vegas Bowl. If Utah State wins, BYU will be officially, but subtlety invited to the Hawaii Bowl and representatives of the Las Vegas Bowl will show up in the USU locker room and say, "We'll be back here next week." In other words, the winner of the BYU/USU game goes to Las Vegas and the loser goes to Hawaii.
Here is what needs to happen for the Aggies to get to an NY-6 Bowl.
1) USU must win all of the rest of their games. This goes without saying, but you have to say it anyway.
2) Houston, Memphis and Temple each need to have at least one loss and probably two losses before the end of the regular season to ensure that whoever wins the American Athletic Conference is ranked below the Aggies. There is a good chance that the winner of the AAC will play a ranked team in their championship game.
3) BYU needs to be ranked by the time they travel to Logan. This is a strength of schedule argument. This would give USU another signature win over a ranked opponent. It will strengthen the resume. BYU is having a decent season, and beating and 8-3 BYU may be good enough, but if BYU is 9-2 going into Logan, all the better for USU if they win.
4) Utah needs to make the National Championship playoffs. This is mostly a strength of schedule argument as well. This would both eliminate the possibility of a USU/Utah rematch and put the loss in Salt Lake City as a "good" loss.
The reason for #3 and #4 is the weakness of the MWC this year and the relative strength of the AAC. It is possible that USU could finished ranked above the eventual AAC champion in the AP and Coaches polls, but still lose out on the computer component. #3 and #4 will help overcome that relative strength of schedule argument.
On the other hand, an 11-2 Utah State still has better odds at an NY-6 bowl than a 10-2 BYU will have this year. There is virtually no chance the Cougars will be there. So USU fans, at least have have that going for you to hang on to. In Logan, at least there is hope.
But the reality is that USU probably cost the MW a chance at a big payday. I do not foresee a 2-loss Utah State being chosen for the Fiesta Bowl over an unbeaten or 1-loss Houston or Memphis or Temple. The AAC is simply a better conference than the MW this year. Only if this trio ends up losing 2 or more games by the end of the season will the playoff committee consider the Aggies. I am not saying that USU does not deserve the honor, but there will likely be a team emerge for the AAC which will deserve it more. Even if the game in Logan between the Aggies is a showdown between 2 ranked teams and college game day is there, USU will not get to the Fiesta Bowl if Houston remains unbeaten.
There is the outside possibility that the Playoff Committee will select two teams from the G-5 conferences. However, you would probably get better odds of the Jazz winning the NBA title this season than that happening. There are a lot of P5 schools still unbeaten this late into the season, and the committee will have a lot good choices. Is is outside of the realm of possibility? Of course not. We are only halfway through the season. But the chances are slim.
The other problem for USU is Utah. Not that the Utes dealt USU a loss, but that Utah has real possibility of playing in the Fiesta Bowl this year. (Winning the PAC-12 south, but losing to Stanford in the championship.) The Committee is not going to put a USU-Utah rematch in the Fiesta Bowl.
Here is what I Foresee: the chairpersons of both the Las Vegas Bowl and Hawaii Bowl will be in Logan on November 28. If BYU wins, then the Cougars will immediately and officially be invited to the Las Vegas Bowl. If Utah State wins, BYU will be officially, but subtlety invited to the Hawaii Bowl and representatives of the Las Vegas Bowl will show up in the USU locker room and say, "We'll be back here next week." In other words, the winner of the BYU/USU game goes to Las Vegas and the loser goes to Hawaii.
Here is what needs to happen for the Aggies to get to an NY-6 Bowl.
1) USU must win all of the rest of their games. This goes without saying, but you have to say it anyway.
2) Houston, Memphis and Temple each need to have at least one loss and probably two losses before the end of the regular season to ensure that whoever wins the American Athletic Conference is ranked below the Aggies. There is a good chance that the winner of the AAC will play a ranked team in their championship game.
3) BYU needs to be ranked by the time they travel to Logan. This is a strength of schedule argument. This would give USU another signature win over a ranked opponent. It will strengthen the resume. BYU is having a decent season, and beating and 8-3 BYU may be good enough, but if BYU is 9-2 going into Logan, all the better for USU if they win.
4) Utah needs to make the National Championship playoffs. This is mostly a strength of schedule argument as well. This would both eliminate the possibility of a USU/Utah rematch and put the loss in Salt Lake City as a "good" loss.
The reason for #3 and #4 is the weakness of the MWC this year and the relative strength of the AAC. It is possible that USU could finished ranked above the eventual AAC champion in the AP and Coaches polls, but still lose out on the computer component. #3 and #4 will help overcome that relative strength of schedule argument.
On the other hand, an 11-2 Utah State still has better odds at an NY-6 bowl than a 10-2 BYU will have this year. There is virtually no chance the Cougars will be there. So USU fans, at least have have that going for you to hang on to. In Logan, at least there is hope.
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
Predictions/Expectations 10/15/2015 edition
Utah Utes
Current Record: 5-0
Notes: Yes, if I was still doing power rankings, Utah would be on top of the PAC-12. However, not everyone is on the bandwagon, yet. Jerry Palm has no PAC-12 team in the playoffs, with Stanford going to the Rose Bowl and Utah going to the Fiesta Bowl.
Expected Wins:
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado (Least difficult remaining game)
Toss Up:
USC
UCLA (Most difficult remaining game)
Optimists Outcome: 12-0
Pessimists Outcome: 10-2
Post-Season Outlook: It may be time to get ready for a trip to Santa Clara to the PAC-12 championship game. It is within smelling distance.
This week's game:
Utah has yet to beat Arizona State since joining the PAC-12. The last two games have been close, however, but still no victory. Not to mention, this is a trap game for the Utes, between a good Cal team and a still to be respected USC. If I was to mark a breakthrough for Utah in the PAC-12 it would be winning this game on Saturday. Utah should get some payback and breakthrough this week.
Utah 34 Arizona State 20
BYU Cougars
Current Record: 4-2
Notes: Injuries and suspensions are nothing new in Provo. A lot has been made of Taysom Hill, but the defensive depth has been decimated. That is part of the reason East Carolina almost beat BYU last week, and why almost nothing will be easy going forward.
Expected Wins
Cincinnati
Wagner (Least difficult remaining game)
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up
Missouri
Utah State (Most difficult remaining game)
Optimists Outcome: 10-2
Pessimists Outcome: 8-4
Post-Season Outlook: Vegas Baby.
This week's game:
I would have been flamed like a Whopper if I would have told you at the beginning of the season that Cincinnati was BYU's most important game. Let me tell you why. If the Big 12 expands, there are three ways to go. BYU/Boise State or Memphis/Cincinnati or UCF/USF. If BYU wants to take a step to remove doubt about where the Big 12 should expand to, this game is critical. BYU's defensive depth means that the offense is going to have to string together long-sustaining drives. Something they are not that good at. This one will be closer than it should be, and high scoring.
BYU 48 Cincy 42
USU Aggies
Current Record: 3-2
Notes: Chuckie will be back for Boise and USU will pull off an upset. Well, no. But expect the Aggies to breeze through the rest of the conference schedule.
Expected Wins:
San Diego State
Wyoming (Least difficult remaining game)
New Mexico
Nevada
Expected Loss:
Boise State (Most Difficult remaining game)
Toss Up:
BYU
Optimists Outcome: 8-4
Pessimists Outcome: 7-5
This Week's Game: This is not your father's Boise State team. This one may not be over by half-time, USU should make a game of it for a while, but I expect BSU will pull away late.
Boise State 34 USU 23
Post Season Outlook: Aggie fans should feel safe in booking a flight to the Poinsettia Bowl.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record: 3-2
Yes, SUU has won 3 straight games, none of them closer than 4 touchdowns, but I'm not exactly putting them in the field of 24 yet. They still have a lot of work to do.
Expected Wins:
Sacramento State (Least difficult remaining game)
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Expected Loss:
Portland State (Most difficult remaining game)
Toss Up:
Montana State
Cal Poly
Optimists Outcome: 8-3
Pessimists Outcome: 6-5
Post Season Outlook: Beat Montana State and Cal Poly and I can just about guarantee SUU will be in the NCAA football championship tournament, provided they don't trip up against Sacramento State, UCD or NAU.
This Week's Game: I expect that the current SUU win streak, no blowout streak, will continue. They haven't yet got the attention of the rest of the conference. Even if they did, Sacramento State doesn't exactly have the power to make a statement in Cedar City. If this game is close, it's because SUU plays down to their level.
SUU: 45 Sac State: 12
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record: 3-3
Weber State was able to pull off a big, or perhaps not so big, upset of Montana in Missoula this last week to even their record. And they didn't even have to get good play from the quarterback to do it. Weber can win if they simply don't turn the ball over.
Expected Wins:
UC Davis (Least difficult remaining game)
Idaho State
Expected Loss:
Eastern Washington (Most difficult remaining game)
Toss Up:
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Optimists Outcome: 7-4
Pessimists Outcome: 5-6
Post Season outlook: To even be considered for the NCAA playoffs, they would have to win out. But on the bright side, at least we are still talking about the possibility.
This Week's Game: North Dakota, like Weber State, is also are having a season that is reminiscent of a Katy Perry song. According to Sagarin, the only difference between the Wildcats and the No-Names is that WSU will be home. If the 'Cats do not turn the ball over, they may eek out another close one.
Weber State 27 North Dakota 23
Current Record: 5-0
Notes: Yes, if I was still doing power rankings, Utah would be on top of the PAC-12. However, not everyone is on the bandwagon, yet. Jerry Palm has no PAC-12 team in the playoffs, with Stanford going to the Rose Bowl and Utah going to the Fiesta Bowl.
Expected Wins:
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Arizona
Colorado (Least difficult remaining game)
Toss Up:
USC
UCLA (Most difficult remaining game)
Optimists Outcome: 12-0
Pessimists Outcome: 10-2
Post-Season Outlook: It may be time to get ready for a trip to Santa Clara to the PAC-12 championship game. It is within smelling distance.
This week's game:
Utah has yet to beat Arizona State since joining the PAC-12. The last two games have been close, however, but still no victory. Not to mention, this is a trap game for the Utes, between a good Cal team and a still to be respected USC. If I was to mark a breakthrough for Utah in the PAC-12 it would be winning this game on Saturday. Utah should get some payback and breakthrough this week.
Utah 34 Arizona State 20
BYU Cougars
Current Record: 4-2
Notes: Injuries and suspensions are nothing new in Provo. A lot has been made of Taysom Hill, but the defensive depth has been decimated. That is part of the reason East Carolina almost beat BYU last week, and why almost nothing will be easy going forward.
Expected Wins
Cincinnati
Wagner (Least difficult remaining game)
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up
Missouri
Utah State (Most difficult remaining game)
Optimists Outcome: 10-2
Pessimists Outcome: 8-4
Post-Season Outlook: Vegas Baby.
This week's game:
I would have been flamed like a Whopper if I would have told you at the beginning of the season that Cincinnati was BYU's most important game. Let me tell you why. If the Big 12 expands, there are three ways to go. BYU/Boise State or Memphis/Cincinnati or UCF/USF. If BYU wants to take a step to remove doubt about where the Big 12 should expand to, this game is critical. BYU's defensive depth means that the offense is going to have to string together long-sustaining drives. Something they are not that good at. This one will be closer than it should be, and high scoring.
BYU 48 Cincy 42
USU Aggies
Current Record: 3-2
Notes: Chuckie will be back for Boise and USU will pull off an upset. Well, no. But expect the Aggies to breeze through the rest of the conference schedule.
Expected Wins:
San Diego State
Wyoming (Least difficult remaining game)
New Mexico
Nevada
Expected Loss:
Boise State (Most Difficult remaining game)
Toss Up:
BYU
Optimists Outcome: 8-4
Pessimists Outcome: 7-5
This Week's Game: This is not your father's Boise State team. This one may not be over by half-time, USU should make a game of it for a while, but I expect BSU will pull away late.
Boise State 34 USU 23
Post Season Outlook: Aggie fans should feel safe in booking a flight to the Poinsettia Bowl.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record: 3-2
Yes, SUU has won 3 straight games, none of them closer than 4 touchdowns, but I'm not exactly putting them in the field of 24 yet. They still have a lot of work to do.
Expected Wins:
Sacramento State (Least difficult remaining game)
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Expected Loss:
Portland State (Most difficult remaining game)
Toss Up:
Montana State
Cal Poly
Optimists Outcome: 8-3
Pessimists Outcome: 6-5
Post Season Outlook: Beat Montana State and Cal Poly and I can just about guarantee SUU will be in the NCAA football championship tournament, provided they don't trip up against Sacramento State, UCD or NAU.
This Week's Game: I expect that the current SUU win streak, no blowout streak, will continue. They haven't yet got the attention of the rest of the conference. Even if they did, Sacramento State doesn't exactly have the power to make a statement in Cedar City. If this game is close, it's because SUU plays down to their level.
SUU: 45 Sac State: 12
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record: 3-3
Weber State was able to pull off a big, or perhaps not so big, upset of Montana in Missoula this last week to even their record. And they didn't even have to get good play from the quarterback to do it. Weber can win if they simply don't turn the ball over.
Expected Wins:
UC Davis (Least difficult remaining game)
Idaho State
Expected Loss:
Eastern Washington (Most difficult remaining game)
Toss Up:
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Optimists Outcome: 7-4
Pessimists Outcome: 5-6
Post Season outlook: To even be considered for the NCAA playoffs, they would have to win out. But on the bright side, at least we are still talking about the possibility.
This Week's Game: North Dakota, like Weber State, is also are having a season that is reminiscent of a Katy Perry song. According to Sagarin, the only difference between the Wildcats and the No-Names is that WSU will be home. If the 'Cats do not turn the ball over, they may eek out another close one.
Weber State 27 North Dakota 23
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Swagger Report...October 11, 2015
BYU 45 East Carolina 38
I thought that BYU would lose a close one this week. For a while, this looked like an overtime game, but the Cougars pulled out another last-minute touchdown out of the hat and won. Tanner Mangum played with a pulled hammy on the last drive after Beau Hodge was ineffective and gave ECU a short field for their game tying touchdown. ECU has a good offense and a lot of people who are dissing the Cougars after this win are not giving the Pirates their deserved props. Obviously, they have some work to do on defense. BYU is 3-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown this year, while 1-1 in other games.
BYU MVP: RB Algernon Brown
Utah 30 California 24
This year, when the Utes have needed a dramatic last-minute play, it has been the defense to get the job done. Utah is 2-0 in such games so far this year. Winning the games that one should win a a mark of a good team. Winning the games that a team should when when you have the target strapped to you back? Well, that's a different kind of Hell that only Kyle Whittingham really knows right now. And it will get worse that the season goes on.
Utah MVP: RB Devonte Booker
Utah State 56 Fresno State 16
Perhaps you are familiar with the new march that Weird Al Yankovic released about a year ago. That song perfectly describes what USU vs. Fresno this year. For those of you not familiar with it, here it is. The question is, how did Fresno State get so bad so quickly? Well, who cares.
USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers
Weber State 24 Montana 21
Weber State notched their first win first win in Missoula since 1987 as Josh Kaleamakia kicked the game winner in OT. WSU had the Grizzlies bottled up in the second half, until the game was tied with about 4 minutes left. Montana, who had the first possession of overtime, fumbled on the first play, allowing the Wildcats to come away with the victory.
WSU MVP: RB Eric Wilkes
I thought that BYU would lose a close one this week. For a while, this looked like an overtime game, but the Cougars pulled out another last-minute touchdown out of the hat and won. Tanner Mangum played with a pulled hammy on the last drive after Beau Hodge was ineffective and gave ECU a short field for their game tying touchdown. ECU has a good offense and a lot of people who are dissing the Cougars after this win are not giving the Pirates their deserved props. Obviously, they have some work to do on defense. BYU is 3-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown this year, while 1-1 in other games.
BYU MVP: RB Algernon Brown
Utah 30 California 24
This year, when the Utes have needed a dramatic last-minute play, it has been the defense to get the job done. Utah is 2-0 in such games so far this year. Winning the games that one should win a a mark of a good team. Winning the games that a team should when when you have the target strapped to you back? Well, that's a different kind of Hell that only Kyle Whittingham really knows right now. And it will get worse that the season goes on.
Utah MVP: RB Devonte Booker
Utah State 56 Fresno State 16
Perhaps you are familiar with the new march that Weird Al Yankovic released about a year ago. That song perfectly describes what USU vs. Fresno this year. For those of you not familiar with it, here it is. The question is, how did Fresno State get so bad so quickly? Well, who cares.
USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers
Weber State 24 Montana 21
Weber State notched their first win first win in Missoula since 1987 as Josh Kaleamakia kicked the game winner in OT. WSU had the Grizzlies bottled up in the second half, until the game was tied with about 4 minutes left. Montana, who had the first possession of overtime, fumbled on the first play, allowing the Wildcats to come away with the victory.
WSU MVP: RB Eric Wilkes
Friday, October 9, 2015
Predictions/Expectations October 10
BYU
Note: Still don't know exactly what to expect. Young team, a lot of returned missionaries. Inconsistency and unpredictability for most of the rest of the season.
Current Record: 3-2
Probable Wins
Wagner (Easiest game left this season)
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up
East Carolina
Cincinnati
Missouri (Most difficult game left this season)
Utah State
Pessimists Prediction: 6-6
Optimists Prediction: 10-2
This week:
East Carolina has a couple of quarterbacks that could give the BYU defense fits. One runs real well, and the other passes real well. But not like Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum. This is more like Riley Nelson and Christian Stewart. That could be bad enough for BYU. They will need to force turnovers and score in the red zone to win. There are two things that happen to BYU each season under Bronco. One, is that they get blown out by a P5 school, and the other is that they lose a game that they should win. This could be that game.
Prediction: East Carolina 27 BYU 24
Post Season Outlook: Hawaii Bowl
Utah
Note: Even a duffer like me knows not to expect an outcome like Oregon every week. Hopefully, the week it catches up to them won't be this week. After a week off, the team looks like they have come back to Earth, even if the fans are still...and for the life of me ,drop it...rubbing the nose of BYU fans in it. This game against Cal will not be easy, and there has been a ton of weirdness in the PAC-12 this year. There is a lot a stake. Utah can firmly take control of the drivers seat in the PAC-12 with a win over Cal. This will likely not be the week that Utah embarrasses themselves.
Current Record: 4-0
Probable Wins
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Colorado (Easiest game left this season)
Toss Up
USC (Most difficult game left this season)
Arizona
UCLA
Pessimists Prediction: 9-3
Optimists Prediction: 12-0
This Week:
I don't know many looking for Cal to upset Utah at home this week. I'm not that bold either. It probably won't be a close game, but it won't be a blowout. Just some good Utah defense.
Prediction: Utah 34 Cal 20
Post-season Outlook: I still think they get Stanford in the PAC-12 championship game. I can't predict who will be the host. Utah is ranked higher in the polls, but the Cardinal are ranked higher by the computers. Now that USC and UCLA have felt the sting of the upset bug, Utah would probably get the Rose Bowl if they lose this game.
Utah State
Note: See, told you it wouldn't be so bad without Chuckie. And they have a team this week that knows what it is like to fall hard, fast and mighty. No, they are not playing BYU this week. It's the Fresno State Bulldogs, who have fallen from contender to doormat in the MW West very quickly. Yes, they might even be worse than Hawaii. USU will need the rest to get ready for Boise State next week.
Current Record: 2-2
Probable Wins
Fresno State
San Diego State
Wyoming (Easiest game left this season)
New Mexico
Nevada
Probable Loss
Boise State (Most difficult game left this season)
Toss Up
Air Force
BYU
Pessimists Prediciton: 7-5
Optimists Prediction: 9-3
This game: This one will be ugly no matter the score
USU 45 Fresno State 10
Post Season Outlook: Poinsettia Bowl
Southern Utah
Sometimes things just go your way, and that is what happened in Ogden last week. This game probably shouldn't have been this one-sided. Everyone should know it. Take a nice week off.
Current Record: 3-2
Probable Wins
Sacramento State (Easiest game remaining)
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Probable Loss
Eastern Washington (Most difficult game remaining)
Toss Up
Montana State
Cal Poly
Pessimists Prediction: 6-5
Optimists Prediction: 8-3
Post Season Outlook: SUU will probably need to get 8 wins to even be considered for an NCAA bid this year. At least it is still withing a the realm of possibility.
Weber State
Current record 2-3
Turnovers have been the bane of existence in Ogden for years. It was really bad last week. Suck it up and go for it again guys.
Probable Wins
UC Davis
Idaho State
Probable Losses
Montana
Eastern Washington
Toss Up
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Pessimists Prediction: 4-7
Optimists Prediction: 6-5
This week: Well, it's Montana in Missoula, the best environment in the Big Sky Conference for everyone except the opposing team. It would really be something is Weber came home with a win, even though it's not your father's Grizzlies.
Montana 35 Weber State 13
Note: Still don't know exactly what to expect. Young team, a lot of returned missionaries. Inconsistency and unpredictability for most of the rest of the season.
Current Record: 3-2
Probable Wins
Wagner (Easiest game left this season)
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up
East Carolina
Cincinnati
Missouri (Most difficult game left this season)
Utah State
Pessimists Prediction: 6-6
Optimists Prediction: 10-2
This week:
East Carolina has a couple of quarterbacks that could give the BYU defense fits. One runs real well, and the other passes real well. But not like Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum. This is more like Riley Nelson and Christian Stewart. That could be bad enough for BYU. They will need to force turnovers and score in the red zone to win. There are two things that happen to BYU each season under Bronco. One, is that they get blown out by a P5 school, and the other is that they lose a game that they should win. This could be that game.
Prediction: East Carolina 27 BYU 24
Post Season Outlook: Hawaii Bowl
Utah
Note: Even a duffer like me knows not to expect an outcome like Oregon every week. Hopefully, the week it catches up to them won't be this week. After a week off, the team looks like they have come back to Earth, even if the fans are still...and for the life of me ,drop it...rubbing the nose of BYU fans in it. This game against Cal will not be easy, and there has been a ton of weirdness in the PAC-12 this year. There is a lot a stake. Utah can firmly take control of the drivers seat in the PAC-12 with a win over Cal. This will likely not be the week that Utah embarrasses themselves.
Current Record: 4-0
Probable Wins
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Colorado (Easiest game left this season)
Toss Up
USC (Most difficult game left this season)
Arizona
UCLA
Pessimists Prediction: 9-3
Optimists Prediction: 12-0
This Week:
I don't know many looking for Cal to upset Utah at home this week. I'm not that bold either. It probably won't be a close game, but it won't be a blowout. Just some good Utah defense.
Prediction: Utah 34 Cal 20
Post-season Outlook: I still think they get Stanford in the PAC-12 championship game. I can't predict who will be the host. Utah is ranked higher in the polls, but the Cardinal are ranked higher by the computers. Now that USC and UCLA have felt the sting of the upset bug, Utah would probably get the Rose Bowl if they lose this game.
Utah State
Note: See, told you it wouldn't be so bad without Chuckie. And they have a team this week that knows what it is like to fall hard, fast and mighty. No, they are not playing BYU this week. It's the Fresno State Bulldogs, who have fallen from contender to doormat in the MW West very quickly. Yes, they might even be worse than Hawaii. USU will need the rest to get ready for Boise State next week.
Current Record: 2-2
Probable Wins
Fresno State
San Diego State
Wyoming (Easiest game left this season)
New Mexico
Nevada
Probable Loss
Boise State (Most difficult game left this season)
Toss Up
Air Force
BYU
Pessimists Prediciton: 7-5
Optimists Prediction: 9-3
This game: This one will be ugly no matter the score
USU 45 Fresno State 10
Post Season Outlook: Poinsettia Bowl
Southern Utah
Sometimes things just go your way, and that is what happened in Ogden last week. This game probably shouldn't have been this one-sided. Everyone should know it. Take a nice week off.
Current Record: 3-2
Probable Wins
Sacramento State (Easiest game remaining)
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Probable Loss
Eastern Washington (Most difficult game remaining)
Toss Up
Montana State
Cal Poly
Pessimists Prediction: 6-5
Optimists Prediction: 8-3
Post Season Outlook: SUU will probably need to get 8 wins to even be considered for an NCAA bid this year. At least it is still withing a the realm of possibility.
Weber State
Current record 2-3
Turnovers have been the bane of existence in Ogden for years. It was really bad last week. Suck it up and go for it again guys.
Probable Wins
UC Davis
Idaho State
Probable Losses
Montana
Eastern Washington
Toss Up
North Dakota
Northern Arizona
Pessimists Prediction: 4-7
Optimists Prediction: 6-5
This week: Well, it's Montana in Missoula, the best environment in the Big Sky Conference for everyone except the opposing team. It would really be something is Weber came home with a win, even though it's not your father's Grizzlies.
Montana 35 Weber State 13
Sunday, October 4, 2015
Swagger Report after October 3 games
BYU 30 Connecticut 13
BYU pulled away from UConn in the 4th quarter, but in all fairness, this game should have been over long before that. BYU couldn't finish drives in the fist half, and could have had a commanding 35-7 lead. This is where the inexperience of the freshman quarterback hurt them. They do have better teams than UConn on their schedule and could run into another road bump if they do not show improvement.
BYU MVP: QB Tanner Mangum
Utah State 33 Colorado State 18
Kent Meyers only accounted for 137 yards in the air, but did get 191 yards on the ground in a Taysom Hill-like effort. Utah State pulled away from Colorado State in the second half of a thunderstorm delayed game.
USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers
Southern Utah 44 Weber State 0
The most unpredictable conference in the country is the Big Sky Conference. Weber State and Southern Utah were supposed to be neck and neck. SUU had 44 points. 24 of those came after Weber State turnovers. Another 7 came on a punt return. Four consecutive drives in the 2nd half for Weber State ended with a turnover. Twice Weber State drove into the purple zone and came away with 0 points. Other than that, it still wasn't as close as predicted. If it wasn't for WSU miscues, the game would have ended with a 13-6 SUU victory.
SUU MVP: QB Ammon Olsen
WSU MVP: LB Emmett Tela
BYU pulled away from UConn in the 4th quarter, but in all fairness, this game should have been over long before that. BYU couldn't finish drives in the fist half, and could have had a commanding 35-7 lead. This is where the inexperience of the freshman quarterback hurt them. They do have better teams than UConn on their schedule and could run into another road bump if they do not show improvement.
BYU MVP: QB Tanner Mangum
Utah State 33 Colorado State 18
Kent Meyers only accounted for 137 yards in the air, but did get 191 yards on the ground in a Taysom Hill-like effort. Utah State pulled away from Colorado State in the second half of a thunderstorm delayed game.
USU MVP: QB Kent Meyers
Southern Utah 44 Weber State 0
The most unpredictable conference in the country is the Big Sky Conference. Weber State and Southern Utah were supposed to be neck and neck. SUU had 44 points. 24 of those came after Weber State turnovers. Another 7 came on a punt return. Four consecutive drives in the 2nd half for Weber State ended with a turnover. Twice Weber State drove into the purple zone and came away with 0 points. Other than that, it still wasn't as close as predicted. If it wasn't for WSU miscues, the game would have ended with a 13-6 SUU victory.
SUU MVP: QB Ammon Olsen
WSU MVP: LB Emmett Tela
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Going into October...Expectations/Predictions for October 2/3
Utah Utes
Current Record 4-0
Have the week off to gloat in the big victory over Oregon and to rub the noses of BYU fans in it. I'd feel better, and I am sure Kyle Whittingham agrees with me, if they were more concerned about California than that team in Provo.
Probable Wins:
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Colorado
Toss Up:
USC
Arizona
UCLA
Optimists Prediction: 12-0--CFP
Pessimists Prediction: 9-3--Foster Farms Bowl
How I think the rest of the season goes: Utah will get a back-to-reality ugly overtime win against California, followed by a come-from-behind win vs Arizona State. They will lose a close game to USC, but then wipe out Oregon State, Washington and Arizona. They will have a game-of-the year close win to UCLA followed by a bench-clearing big win over Colorado. Because UCLA will beat USC, there is a 3-way tie for first in the PAC-12 south, which Utah gets the tie breaker for being the highest ranked of the three. Conference final prediction: Stanford 38 Utah 35. Utah settles for an Alamo Bowl appearance against Oklahoma.
BYU Cougars
Current Record: 2-2
I don't know anymore what to expect of the Cougars. As ugly as the loss to Michigan was, it could be a harbinger for the rest of the season. That is not good for BYU or their hopes for the long term future. One thing not considered in all of this is the effect of the Mission Age Change of the LDS Church a few years ago. Those first 18-year-old missionaries, and Tanner Mangum is one of them, are now freshmen who weren't at spring ball. And Mangum isn't the only one who has been called upon to save this team. Good luck in getting through this season. On the other hand, this may be the last year that BYU struggles.
Probable Wins:
Wagner
Fresno State
Toss Up:
Connecticut
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Missouri
San Jose state
Utah State
Optimists Prediction: 10-2
Pessimists Prediction: 4-8
This week's prediction: BYU 10 UConn 6
How will the rest of the season go for BYU: BYU gets an ugly, close, defensive win against UConn thanks to a pick 6 and another interception returned deep into Husky territory. The offense struggles with barely 100 yards. BYU does a little better against East Carolina because Harvey Langi is moved full-time back to running back, but the Cougars still lose the game. They also lose a close game to Cincinnati. After that game, Tommy Tuberville declares that the Bearcats are a better fit for the Big 12 than BYU and his team proved it. BYU gets a closer than it should be victory over Wagner, pulling away in the 2nd half. Then lose another close game at San Jose State. Missouri is another close loss. The Cougars then clobber Fresno State in the home finale before going to Logan and winning a close game to become bowl eligible. After winning the Hawaii Bowl, Bronco Mendenhall announces his retirement to be replaced by Kalani Sitake.
Utah State Aggies
Current Record: 1-2
Chuckie is hurt. What else is new? Chuckie has been hurt a lot. And I have a hard time finding more than a game or two where the backup, wherever it was, couldn't lead this team. They will be fine.
Probable Wins:
Colorado State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
Nevada
Probable Loss:
Boise State
Toss Up;
Air Force
Nevada
BYU
Optimists Prediction: 9-3--Poinsettia Bowl
Pessimists Prediction: 7-5--Potato Bowl
This Week's Prediction: Utah State 25 Colorado State 16
How the rest of the season goes for Utah State: The Aggies win a close one to Colorado State and a not-so-close one to Fresno State before getting embarrassed at home by Boise State. They respond with blow out wins against San Diego State, Wyoming and New Mexico before losing in overtime to Air Force. They close out the season with a win against Nevada and a loss to BYU. After the BYU game, it is announced that Matt Wells will replace Darrell Hazel at Purdue with a 2.75 million dollar contract. Kevin Clune coaches USU to victory over Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl, but Rob Ash is named the new head coach.
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record: 2-2
It's amazing what can be done when you are not playing above your league. Weber State is now 2-2. They won their second game before October dawned. Now, they are playing to improve on their record since Ron McBride retired.
Probable Wins:
North Dakota
UC Davis
Idaho State
Probable Losses:
Montana
Eastern Washington
Toss Up:
Southern Utah
Northern Arizona
Optimists Prediction: 7-4
Pessimists Prediction: 5-6
This week's prediction: keep reading
How the rest of the season goes for the Wildcats: Weber State gets a good, close win against the Thunderbirds, followed by a close loss to Montana, but then they also get wins against North Dakota and Northern Arizona. They take Eastern Washington to overtime before losing. They bounce back against UC Davis, but fall to Idaho State in the season finale in a snowstorm with Ron McBride in attendance. Finishing over .500 for the first time in 4 years feels good, and people welcome a return of competitive Weber State football. Surprisingly, Jay Hill stays on for one more season.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record: 2-2
SUU had last week amounted to a scrimmage against a team that wore a different colored uniform. It's a chance to work out a few bugs, build confidence, get the backups some playing time. Now that those wounds have been licked, let's see what the rest of the season brings.
Probable Wins:
Sacramento State
UC Davis
Probable Losses:
Montana State
Portland State
Toss Up:
Weber State
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
Optimists Prediction: 7-4
Pessimists Prediction: 4-7
This Week's Prediction: Weber State 24 Southern Utah 21
How the rest of the season goes for Southern Utah. After a disappointing loss, SUU comes back and clobbers Sacramento State at home which is the beginning of a 3-game winning steak before losing a close game to Montana State in a sub-zero blizzard. Even though the weather is nicer in Portland, SUU loses in a blowout as two former BYU quarterbacks battle. SUU and Northern Arizona renew the rivalry on the last week of the season, the two teams combine for 130 points as SUU wins 67-63.
Current Record 4-0
Have the week off to gloat in the big victory over Oregon and to rub the noses of BYU fans in it. I'd feel better, and I am sure Kyle Whittingham agrees with me, if they were more concerned about California than that team in Provo.
Probable Wins:
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Colorado
Toss Up:
USC
Arizona
UCLA
Optimists Prediction: 12-0--CFP
Pessimists Prediction: 9-3--Foster Farms Bowl
How I think the rest of the season goes: Utah will get a back-to-reality ugly overtime win against California, followed by a come-from-behind win vs Arizona State. They will lose a close game to USC, but then wipe out Oregon State, Washington and Arizona. They will have a game-of-the year close win to UCLA followed by a bench-clearing big win over Colorado. Because UCLA will beat USC, there is a 3-way tie for first in the PAC-12 south, which Utah gets the tie breaker for being the highest ranked of the three. Conference final prediction: Stanford 38 Utah 35. Utah settles for an Alamo Bowl appearance against Oklahoma.
BYU Cougars
Current Record: 2-2
I don't know anymore what to expect of the Cougars. As ugly as the loss to Michigan was, it could be a harbinger for the rest of the season. That is not good for BYU or their hopes for the long term future. One thing not considered in all of this is the effect of the Mission Age Change of the LDS Church a few years ago. Those first 18-year-old missionaries, and Tanner Mangum is one of them, are now freshmen who weren't at spring ball. And Mangum isn't the only one who has been called upon to save this team. Good luck in getting through this season. On the other hand, this may be the last year that BYU struggles.
Probable Wins:
Wagner
Fresno State
Toss Up:
Connecticut
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Missouri
San Jose state
Utah State
Optimists Prediction: 10-2
Pessimists Prediction: 4-8
This week's prediction: BYU 10 UConn 6
How will the rest of the season go for BYU: BYU gets an ugly, close, defensive win against UConn thanks to a pick 6 and another interception returned deep into Husky territory. The offense struggles with barely 100 yards. BYU does a little better against East Carolina because Harvey Langi is moved full-time back to running back, but the Cougars still lose the game. They also lose a close game to Cincinnati. After that game, Tommy Tuberville declares that the Bearcats are a better fit for the Big 12 than BYU and his team proved it. BYU gets a closer than it should be victory over Wagner, pulling away in the 2nd half. Then lose another close game at San Jose State. Missouri is another close loss. The Cougars then clobber Fresno State in the home finale before going to Logan and winning a close game to become bowl eligible. After winning the Hawaii Bowl, Bronco Mendenhall announces his retirement to be replaced by Kalani Sitake.
Utah State Aggies
Current Record: 1-2
Chuckie is hurt. What else is new? Chuckie has been hurt a lot. And I have a hard time finding more than a game or two where the backup, wherever it was, couldn't lead this team. They will be fine.
Probable Wins:
Colorado State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
Nevada
Probable Loss:
Boise State
Toss Up;
Air Force
Nevada
BYU
Optimists Prediction: 9-3--Poinsettia Bowl
Pessimists Prediction: 7-5--Potato Bowl
This Week's Prediction: Utah State 25 Colorado State 16
How the rest of the season goes for Utah State: The Aggies win a close one to Colorado State and a not-so-close one to Fresno State before getting embarrassed at home by Boise State. They respond with blow out wins against San Diego State, Wyoming and New Mexico before losing in overtime to Air Force. They close out the season with a win against Nevada and a loss to BYU. After the BYU game, it is announced that Matt Wells will replace Darrell Hazel at Purdue with a 2.75 million dollar contract. Kevin Clune coaches USU to victory over Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl, but Rob Ash is named the new head coach.
Weber State Wildcats
Current Record: 2-2
It's amazing what can be done when you are not playing above your league. Weber State is now 2-2. They won their second game before October dawned. Now, they are playing to improve on their record since Ron McBride retired.
Probable Wins:
North Dakota
UC Davis
Idaho State
Probable Losses:
Montana
Eastern Washington
Toss Up:
Southern Utah
Northern Arizona
Optimists Prediction: 7-4
Pessimists Prediction: 5-6
This week's prediction: keep reading
How the rest of the season goes for the Wildcats: Weber State gets a good, close win against the Thunderbirds, followed by a close loss to Montana, but then they also get wins against North Dakota and Northern Arizona. They take Eastern Washington to overtime before losing. They bounce back against UC Davis, but fall to Idaho State in the season finale in a snowstorm with Ron McBride in attendance. Finishing over .500 for the first time in 4 years feels good, and people welcome a return of competitive Weber State football. Surprisingly, Jay Hill stays on for one more season.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Current Record: 2-2
SUU had last week amounted to a scrimmage against a team that wore a different colored uniform. It's a chance to work out a few bugs, build confidence, get the backups some playing time. Now that those wounds have been licked, let's see what the rest of the season brings.
Probable Wins:
Sacramento State
UC Davis
Probable Losses:
Montana State
Portland State
Toss Up:
Weber State
Cal Poly
Northern Arizona
Optimists Prediction: 7-4
Pessimists Prediction: 4-7
This Week's Prediction: Weber State 24 Southern Utah 21
How the rest of the season goes for Southern Utah. After a disappointing loss, SUU comes back and clobbers Sacramento State at home which is the beginning of a 3-game winning steak before losing a close game to Montana State in a sub-zero blizzard. Even though the weather is nicer in Portland, SUU loses in a blowout as two former BYU quarterbacks battle. SUU and Northern Arizona renew the rivalry on the last week of the season, the two teams combine for 130 points as SUU wins 67-63.
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
What are the chances that these coaches will leave after this season.
Bronco Mendenhall--It's a little early to tell at this point. It is likely that the Michigan game was an abortion and that BYU will win 10 games, plus their bowl game this year. But if Michigan become a harbinger for the rest of the season, there will be a lot of pressure on Mendenhall to step down, especially if the Kansas City Chiefs can't right the ship and Andy Reid is suddenly available. But even if BYU is a paltry 6-6, Mendenhall will be back next year if he wants the job.
How much longer will Bronco be at BYU? IMHO, no more than 1-2 seasons. Bronco said 3 years for BYU to get into a power conference. I think that means that he has 3 years left to coach in Provo.
Possible Short List to Replace Mendenhall if he leaves after this season:
-KC Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid, if he is available.
-Stanford Defensive Coordinator Lance Anderson
-Oregon State Defensive Coordinator Kalani Sitake
-Seattle Seahawks Offensive Coordinator Darrel Bevel
-Utah Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick
Kyle Whittingham--If Utah wins the PAC-12 and qualifies for the playoffs, KW will be on every NFL team's short list for new head coaches. What teams could be looking for a new head coach this season? The New York Giants and the Miami Dolphins are among the teams that may part ways with their coach after this season. Chris Hill will pull out all the stops to keep KW from going to another college, and it's not like a lot of choice college jobs will be open after this season, unless you want Arkansas or Texas, but there may be an NFL opportunity too good to pass up. I think the chances that KW stays at Utah, however, are better than 50-50.
How much longer will KW be at Utah: It may not be this year, but KW will be coaching in the NFL sooner rather than later.
Possible Short List to Replace Whittingham if he leaves after this season:
-Oregon State Head Coach Gary Anderson
-Utah State Head Coach Matt Wells
-Oregon State Defensive Coordinator Kalani Sitake
-Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick
-Special Teams Coordinator Morgan Scalley
Matt Wells--He has done well enough at Utah State to gain the attention of others across the college football world. I don't know his mind, but he has his price and someone may be willing to give it to him. He could even end up down the road in Salt Lake if KW is lured to the NFL. Unless an SMU-like scandal is uncovered, he will not be forced out of Logan.
How much longer will Matt Wells be at Utah State: A successful coach in Logan will sooner or later be drawn away for more money. I don't know Wells personally, and I don't pretend to know what is in his heart and mind. He may be at USU for a few more seasons, he may leave after this year. Sooner or later, a job that he can't pass up will come his way.
Possible Short List to Replace Wells if he leaves after this season:
-Defensive Coordinator Kevin Clune
-Offensive Coordinator Josh Heupel
-Montana State Head Coach Rob Ash
-Utah Offensive Coordinator Aaron Roderick
-Utah Special Teams Coordinator Morgan Scalley
Weber State Head Coach Jay Hill
I do not get the sense that Jerry Bovee is going to send Jay Hill away anytime soon. As long as the 'Cats are making progress this year, he will have a job. He has not yet done well enough in Ogden to be lured away by any other head coaching opportunities. He may get the chance to be an assistant somewhere, but I don't have the sense that he leaves. The real question in Ogden is when is Weber State going to give up on Football. Although the athletic program in Ogden isn't as subsidized as much as it is at other colleges in the state.
How Much Longer will Jay Hill be at Weber State: If Hill can turn the program around, he will leave not much longer afterwards, much like Mike Price. Well, he might be around for a season or two afterwards, but coaches don't come to Weber State to make a career of it. If he leaves after this season, it will likely to become an assistant coach somewhere.
Possible Short List to Replace Hill if he leaves after this season:
-BYU Defensive Coordinator Nick Howell
-BYU Assistant Coach Garrett Tujague
-BYU QB Coach Jason Beck
-Montana State Offensive Coordinator Tim Cramsey
-Offensive Coordinator Steve Clark
Southern Utah Head Coach Ed Lamb
Southern Utah is a lot like Weber State. Lamb hasn't yet done well enough to get the attention of FBS programs, but not poorly enough to be shown the door. He will be back next year. But the problem in Cedar City is money. SUU is subsidized more than any other school in the state, and there is pressure on the athletic department to make cuts. If he leaves after this season, it will likely to become an assistant coach somewhere.
Possible Short List to Replace Lamb if he leaves after this season:
-Utah assistant coach Justin Ena
-Montana State Offensive Coordinator Tim Cramsey
-Portland State Defensive Coordinator Malik Roberson
-Weber State Offensive Coordinator Steve Clark
-Defensive Coordinator Demario Warren
Sunday, September 27, 2015
September 26 Swagger Report
Michigan 31 BYU 0
BYU was dominated on both sides of the ball. Most of my readers already know the story. So what I have to say should go without saying, but I feel that I have to say it anyway. Big time college football programs show up EVERY SINGLE WEEK. There are no days off, there are no down days. In the old WAC days, you could follow up a close loss to UCLA with an ugly win against the likes of New Mexico. But those days are gone. BYU can't have outings like this and expect a Big 12 invite. They already have Iowa State and Kansas, they don't need another inconsistent team. Every season under Bronco Mendenhall, BYU has played a game the coach has had to apologize for. A coach with Bronco's record shouldn't have to apologize for anything. When are BYU boosters going to demand better? For BYU, I leave the worse insult I can give a team, naming the punter the MVP.
BYU MVP: P Johnny Linihan
Utah 65 Oregon 20
This was probably the best day ever for Utah fans. But let me just say this, when you are ahead 48-13, you don't need to run a trick play on a punt return. Not that Kyle Whittingham has ever been one to let up once the jugular is open. He's going to make sure the beast is good and dead. At least Jim Harbaugh tried to make it easy for BYU to avoid a shutout. That will come back to haunt you. Otherwise, good game. Utah deserves to be ranked higher.
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
Weber State 38 Northern Colorado 17
Yogi Berra, who passed away this week, was once asked what was the best pitch to throw to open a game. His answer was, "strike 1". It was also a good day for the Wildcats doing something that hasn't been done since Ron McBride was on the sidelines...win conference game #1 while playing conference game #1. Mike Price would be sure to emphasize that his team was in first place. But old rival SUU is coming to Ogden next week, and it doesn't matter how good or bad these teams are, it's going to be a good game.
WSU MVP: RB Erik Wilkes
SUU 55 Brevard 7
There is only one thing to say to SUU after beating a low-ranking Division II school. Yawn. Guess who will be more rested on Ogden on Friday night?
SUU MVP: QB Ammon Olsen
BYU was dominated on both sides of the ball. Most of my readers already know the story. So what I have to say should go without saying, but I feel that I have to say it anyway. Big time college football programs show up EVERY SINGLE WEEK. There are no days off, there are no down days. In the old WAC days, you could follow up a close loss to UCLA with an ugly win against the likes of New Mexico. But those days are gone. BYU can't have outings like this and expect a Big 12 invite. They already have Iowa State and Kansas, they don't need another inconsistent team. Every season under Bronco Mendenhall, BYU has played a game the coach has had to apologize for. A coach with Bronco's record shouldn't have to apologize for anything. When are BYU boosters going to demand better? For BYU, I leave the worse insult I can give a team, naming the punter the MVP.
BYU MVP: P Johnny Linihan
Utah 65 Oregon 20
This was probably the best day ever for Utah fans. But let me just say this, when you are ahead 48-13, you don't need to run a trick play on a punt return. Not that Kyle Whittingham has ever been one to let up once the jugular is open. He's going to make sure the beast is good and dead. At least Jim Harbaugh tried to make it easy for BYU to avoid a shutout. That will come back to haunt you. Otherwise, good game. Utah deserves to be ranked higher.
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
Weber State 38 Northern Colorado 17
Yogi Berra, who passed away this week, was once asked what was the best pitch to throw to open a game. His answer was, "strike 1". It was also a good day for the Wildcats doing something that hasn't been done since Ron McBride was on the sidelines...win conference game #1 while playing conference game #1. Mike Price would be sure to emphasize that his team was in first place. But old rival SUU is coming to Ogden next week, and it doesn't matter how good or bad these teams are, it's going to be a good game.
WSU MVP: RB Erik Wilkes
SUU 55 Brevard 7
There is only one thing to say to SUU after beating a low-ranking Division II school. Yawn. Guess who will be more rested on Ogden on Friday night?
SUU MVP: QB Ammon Olsen
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Predictions Expectations for Week 4 and beyond, 2015
Utah State Aggies
Let's start with the Aggies, who lost Chuckie Keeton for 4-6 weeks. Good thing that the most difficult stretch of the season is behind them and they have a week off to get ready for conference play and to get the new starting quarterback game ready. The news isn't all bad for the Aggies, so cheer up USU fans. But there is that game on October 16 that Keeton will miss, but USU is not expected to beat Boise State even with a healthy Chukie.
Current record: 1-2
Expected Wins
Fresno State
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
Air Force
Expected Loss
Boise State
Toss Up
Colorado State
Nevada
BYU
Optimists Outlook: 9-3
Pessimists Outlook: 6-6
Likely Post-Season Outlook:
Poinsettia Bowl
No Game this Week
BYU Cougars
Even at 12-0, it would take some sort of divine intervention to get BYU into the playoffs. Even Tanner Mangum has admitted that God doesn't care. Therefore, they didn't have to beat UCLA, they only had to look good in losing. Mission Accomplished. If they want a chance at the NY-6, they probably need to do at least the same against Michigan, if not better. But Michigan presents the same problem for BYU that UCLA did. Their offensive line is big and they could wear BYU's defensive front down, just like UCLA did. A close loss won't hurt BYU, but a win would be better.
Current Record: 2-1
Expected Wins:
Connecticut
East Carolina
Cincinnati
Wagner
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up:
Missouri
Utah State
Optimists Outlook: 11-1
Pessimists Outlook: 9-3
Likely Post-Season Outlook:
Hawaii Bowl
This week's prediction: Michigan 28 BYU 24
Utah Utes
It get's real in a big way for the Utes this week. They travel to Oregon, where some people predict that Utah will emerge victorious. They have done so before. But, I suspect, that no one in the PAC-12 will look past Utah this season, and that the Utes will need to earn it in a big way this week. They do, however, have the tools to come home from Oregon with another win. They have Travis Booker, who can control the clock where a fast zone-read offense can't. But the defense showed, in Fresno last week, that they could be worn down. Utah will need special special teams to win.
Current Record: 3-0
Expected Wins:
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Colorado
Expected Loss:
UCLA
Toss Up:
Oregon
USC
Arizona
Optimists Outlook: 11-1
Pessimists Outlook: 8-4
Likely Post-Season Outlook:
Foster Farms Bowl
This Week's Prediction: Oregon 38 Utah 34
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Coming off of a big win to open their conference season, SUU now takes a break to play Brevard College, a Division II school from Brevard, NC. Never heard of them before. Well, better take them seriously, anyway.
Current Record: 1-2
Expected Wins:
Brevard
Sacramento State
UC Davis
Expected Losses:
Montana State
Cal Poly
Portland State
Northern Arizona
Toss Up:
Weber State
Optimists Outlook: 5-6
Pessimists Outlook: 4-7
This Week's Prediction: SUU 45 Brevard 20
Weber State Wildcats
Weber State has a chance to equal the number of wins they have had in each of the prior three seasons this week. Nottingham Field has been kind to the Wildcats. If the defense continues to play well, win #2 should come this week.
Current Record: 1-2
Expected Wins:
Northern Colorado
UC Davis
Expected Losses:
Montana
Northern Arizona
Eastern Washington
Toss Up:
Southern Utah
North Dakota
Idaho State
Optimists Outlook: 6-5
Pessimists Outlook: 3-9
This Week's Prediction: Weber State 38 Northern Colorado 9
Let's start with the Aggies, who lost Chuckie Keeton for 4-6 weeks. Good thing that the most difficult stretch of the season is behind them and they have a week off to get ready for conference play and to get the new starting quarterback game ready. The news isn't all bad for the Aggies, so cheer up USU fans. But there is that game on October 16 that Keeton will miss, but USU is not expected to beat Boise State even with a healthy Chukie.
Current record: 1-2
Expected Wins
Fresno State
San Diego State
Wyoming
New Mexico
Air Force
Expected Loss
Boise State
Toss Up
Colorado State
Nevada
BYU
Optimists Outlook: 9-3
Pessimists Outlook: 6-6
Likely Post-Season Outlook:
Poinsettia Bowl
No Game this Week
BYU Cougars
Even at 12-0, it would take some sort of divine intervention to get BYU into the playoffs. Even Tanner Mangum has admitted that God doesn't care. Therefore, they didn't have to beat UCLA, they only had to look good in losing. Mission Accomplished. If they want a chance at the NY-6, they probably need to do at least the same against Michigan, if not better. But Michigan presents the same problem for BYU that UCLA did. Their offensive line is big and they could wear BYU's defensive front down, just like UCLA did. A close loss won't hurt BYU, but a win would be better.
Current Record: 2-1
Expected Wins:
Connecticut
East Carolina
Cincinnati
Wagner
San Jose State
Fresno State
Toss Up:
Missouri
Utah State
Optimists Outlook: 11-1
Pessimists Outlook: 9-3
Likely Post-Season Outlook:
Hawaii Bowl
This week's prediction: Michigan 28 BYU 24
Utah Utes
It get's real in a big way for the Utes this week. They travel to Oregon, where some people predict that Utah will emerge victorious. They have done so before. But, I suspect, that no one in the PAC-12 will look past Utah this season, and that the Utes will need to earn it in a big way this week. They do, however, have the tools to come home from Oregon with another win. They have Travis Booker, who can control the clock where a fast zone-read offense can't. But the defense showed, in Fresno last week, that they could be worn down. Utah will need special special teams to win.
Current Record: 3-0
Expected Wins:
California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington
Colorado
Expected Loss:
UCLA
Toss Up:
Oregon
USC
Arizona
Optimists Outlook: 11-1
Pessimists Outlook: 8-4
Likely Post-Season Outlook:
Foster Farms Bowl
This Week's Prediction: Oregon 38 Utah 34
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
Coming off of a big win to open their conference season, SUU now takes a break to play Brevard College, a Division II school from Brevard, NC. Never heard of them before. Well, better take them seriously, anyway.
Current Record: 1-2
Expected Wins:
Brevard
Sacramento State
UC Davis
Expected Losses:
Montana State
Cal Poly
Portland State
Northern Arizona
Toss Up:
Weber State
Optimists Outlook: 5-6
Pessimists Outlook: 4-7
This Week's Prediction: SUU 45 Brevard 20
Weber State Wildcats
Weber State has a chance to equal the number of wins they have had in each of the prior three seasons this week. Nottingham Field has been kind to the Wildcats. If the defense continues to play well, win #2 should come this week.
Current Record: 1-2
Expected Wins:
Northern Colorado
UC Davis
Expected Losses:
Montana
Northern Arizona
Eastern Washington
Toss Up:
Southern Utah
North Dakota
Idaho State
Optimists Outlook: 6-5
Pessimists Outlook: 3-9
This Week's Prediction: Weber State 38 Northern Colorado 9
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Report of Action on September 19...week 3 of college football
UCLA 24 BYU 23
Did you notice the difference between BYU of week 1 and week 2 and BYU of week 3? There was one key difference. In the 4th quarter, BYU's defense looked lost and couldn't tackle anyone. Against Nebraska and Boise State, BYU's defense stiffened. BYU may have been exposed by UCLA late in the game. Usually, when the opposition can run on you in the 4th quarter, you are going to lose. It shouldn't need to come down to a Tanner Mangum miracle every week. That kind of game is not sustainable.
BYU MVP: QB Tanner Mangum
Utah Fresno State
BYU isn't the only team in the state with defensive issues in the 4th quarter on the road. Thankfully, Britain Covey put the game out of reach with his punt return. Otherwise, this was the best offensive effort for the Utes so far this season.
Washington 31 Utah State 17
Chuckie Keeton's quarterback stats are just not what we've come to expect from Chuckie Keeton in prior seasons. But one thing he doesn't have that he's had in previous seasons is support from the running game. Chuckie can't be the entire offense, nor the entire team. Hopefully, things will improve stepping into conference play.
USU MVP: S Jontrell Rocquemore
Weber State 32 Sacramento State 14
In a non-conference game against a conference opponent, Weber State held tough on defense. The Hornets only managed 246 yards of total offense. It was important for Weber to win this one, their first real winnable game of 2015 if there was to be any hope of getting past the two win mark where the Wildcats have been for the past 3 seasons.
WSU MVP: WR Cameron Livingston
Southern Utah 30 Northern Colorado 3
This was a conference game for the Thunderbirds. And it was a good way for the conference season to start. The offense wasn't spectacular, but the defense was in forcing 5 Bear interceptions. This is good old Thunderbird football. Forcing turnovers, good special teams play. Getting a short field for the offense. Therefore, they get a lot of points without a lot of yardage. Good to see it back for at least one week. We'll see what they can do as the season progresses.
SUU MVP: LB Mike Needham
Did you notice the difference between BYU of week 1 and week 2 and BYU of week 3? There was one key difference. In the 4th quarter, BYU's defense looked lost and couldn't tackle anyone. Against Nebraska and Boise State, BYU's defense stiffened. BYU may have been exposed by UCLA late in the game. Usually, when the opposition can run on you in the 4th quarter, you are going to lose. It shouldn't need to come down to a Tanner Mangum miracle every week. That kind of game is not sustainable.
BYU MVP: QB Tanner Mangum
Utah Fresno State
BYU isn't the only team in the state with defensive issues in the 4th quarter on the road. Thankfully, Britain Covey put the game out of reach with his punt return. Otherwise, this was the best offensive effort for the Utes so far this season.
Washington 31 Utah State 17
Chuckie Keeton's quarterback stats are just not what we've come to expect from Chuckie Keeton in prior seasons. But one thing he doesn't have that he's had in previous seasons is support from the running game. Chuckie can't be the entire offense, nor the entire team. Hopefully, things will improve stepping into conference play.
USU MVP: S Jontrell Rocquemore
Weber State 32 Sacramento State 14
In a non-conference game against a conference opponent, Weber State held tough on defense. The Hornets only managed 246 yards of total offense. It was important for Weber to win this one, their first real winnable game of 2015 if there was to be any hope of getting past the two win mark where the Wildcats have been for the past 3 seasons.
WSU MVP: WR Cameron Livingston
Southern Utah 30 Northern Colorado 3
This was a conference game for the Thunderbirds. And it was a good way for the conference season to start. The offense wasn't spectacular, but the defense was in forcing 5 Bear interceptions. This is good old Thunderbird football. Forcing turnovers, good special teams play. Getting a short field for the offense. Therefore, they get a lot of points without a lot of yardage. Good to see it back for at least one week. We'll see what they can do as the season progresses.
SUU MVP: LB Mike Needham
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