The Effect of Utah State's Win over Boise State

Let me first say that I was very impressed by how Utah State crushed Boise State on Friday night in Logan.  Forcing 8 turnovers is quite the defensive feat.  I also expect that Utah State will breeze through the rest of their conference schedule, with the only real test being BYU on the last weekend of the regular season.  And I expect that the MW Championship game will be in Logan, which USU will also win easily.  The game between BYU and USU in Logan will likely feature two ranked teams, if BYU gets by Missouri in Kansas City four weeks from Today.  (Before BYU travels to Missou, they have FCS Wagner and a bye week followed by a trip to San Jose.)

But the reality is that USU probably cost the MW a chance at a big payday.  I do not foresee a 2-loss Utah State being chosen for the Fiesta Bowl over an unbeaten or 1-loss Houston or Memphis or Temple.  The AAC is simply a better conference than the MW this year.  Only if this trio ends up losing 2 or more games by the end of the season will the playoff committee consider the Aggies.  I am not saying that USU does not deserve the honor, but there will likely be a team emerge for the AAC which will deserve it more.  Even if the game in Logan between the Aggies is a showdown between 2 ranked teams and college game day is there, USU will not get to the Fiesta Bowl if Houston remains unbeaten.

There is the outside possibility that the Playoff Committee will select two teams from the G-5 conferences.  However, you would probably get better odds of the Jazz winning the NBA title this season than that happening.  There are a lot of P5 schools still unbeaten this late into the season, and the committee will have a lot good choices.  Is is outside of the realm of possibility?  Of course not.  We are only halfway through the season.  But the chances are slim.

The other problem for USU is Utah.  Not that the Utes dealt USU a loss, but that Utah has real possibility of playing in the Fiesta Bowl this year.  (Winning the PAC-12 south, but losing to Stanford in the championship.)  The Committee is not going to put a USU-Utah rematch in the Fiesta Bowl.

Here is what I Foresee: the chairpersons of both the Las Vegas Bowl and Hawaii Bowl will be in Logan on November 28.  If BYU wins, then the Cougars will immediately and officially be invited to the Las Vegas Bowl.  If Utah State wins, BYU will be officially, but subtlety invited to the Hawaii Bowl and representatives of the Las Vegas Bowl will show up in the USU locker room and say, "We'll be back here next week."  In other words, the winner of the BYU/USU game goes to Las Vegas and the loser goes to Hawaii.

Here is what needs to happen for the Aggies to get to an NY-6 Bowl.

1) USU must win all of the rest of their games.  This goes without saying, but you have to say it anyway.

2) Houston, Memphis and Temple each need to have at least one loss and probably two losses before the end of the regular season to ensure that whoever wins the American Athletic Conference is ranked below the Aggies.  There is a good chance that the winner of the AAC will play a ranked team in their championship game.

3) BYU needs to be ranked by the time they travel to Logan.  This is a strength of schedule argument.  This would give USU another signature win over a ranked opponent.  It will strengthen the resume.  BYU is having a decent season, and beating and 8-3 BYU may be good enough, but if BYU is 9-2 going into Logan, all the better for USU if they win.

4) Utah needs to make the National Championship playoffs.  This is mostly a strength of schedule argument as well.  This would both eliminate the possibility of a USU/Utah rematch and put the loss in Salt Lake City as a "good" loss.

The reason for #3 and #4 is the weakness of the MWC this year and the relative strength of the AAC.  It is possible that USU could finished ranked above the eventual AAC champion in the AP and Coaches polls, but still lose out on the computer component.  #3 and #4 will help overcome that relative strength of schedule argument.

On the other hand, an 11-2 Utah State still has better odds at an NY-6 bowl than a 10-2 BYU will have this year.  There is virtually no chance the Cougars will be there.  So USU fans, at least have have that going for you to hang on to.  In Logan, at least there is hope.