I backed off of this blog for a few weeks because my son returned home from his mission and I wanted some good family time. But I thought that I would begin again by talking about how the season went for each team in Utah. I want to answer one question...was the season as success. We will compare what we would have foreseen at the beginning of the season, had we known everything about the team an their opponents as we do now. For example, we probably would have started the season thinking that BYU and Michigan was a toss-up game. However, Michigan turned out to be better than we expected, had we known that, we would not have expected BYU to go into the Big House and win. We will begin with the FCS schools and work up.
Was the season a success for Weber State?
I don't know anyone who follows Weber State football who would think that the 2015 season was a failure by any stretch of the imagination. 2015 was the first winning football season since 2010, and feels real good after 3 consecutive double-digit loss seasons.
Best win: at Montana
Worst Loss: Southern Utah, I know that SUU was really good this year. But this is your big rival, and the game was at home. It should have at least been close.
What worked against them: Lack of experience and confidence, especially early on. Turnovers.
What worked for them: Tough defense and a solid running attack after the team gained confidence.
Expectation at the beginning of the season (Considering how the competition changed) Pessimistic: 4-7, Optimistic: 6-5
Actual record: 6-5
Game by game
At Oregon State: Expected Loss
At North Dakota State: Expected Loss
Sacramento State: Expected Win
Northern Colorado: Expected Win
Southern Utah: Toss-up Loss (Rivalry game at home)
Montana: Upset Win
North Dakota: Toss-up Win
Northern Arizona: Expected Loss
Eastern Washington: Expected Loss
UC Davis: Expected Win
Idaho State: Expected Win
Competition that was better than expected: Southern Utah
Competition that was not as good as expected: None
Strongest Opponent (FCS): North Dakota State
Weakest Opponent: UC Davis
Was the Season as success for Southern Utah
It is hard to classify any season where you win a conference championship as a failure. Because this hasn't happened in Cedar City very often, it is phenomenal. SUU, however, was one game away from having a much better post-season draw than they received. We know that Ammon Olsen was great. The question is: Will Ed Lamb be back in 2016?
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 4-7, Optimistic: 8-3
Actual Record: 8-3
Best win: At Montana State
Worst loss: At South Dakota State
What worked for them: Tough defense, solid special teams. Ammon Olsen, later in the season
What worked against them: Turnovers. Lack of confidence on the road.
Game by game
At Utah State: Expected Loss
At South Dakota State: Toss-up Loss
Northern Colorado: Expected Win
Brevard: Expected Win
At Weber State: Toss-up Win
Sacramento State: Expected Win
At UC Davis: Expected Win
Cal Poly: Toss-up Win
At Montana State: Upset Win
At Portland State: Toss-up Loss
Northern Arizona: Toss-up Win
Better than expected opponents: Weber State, Portland State
Not as good as expected opponents: Utah State, Montana State
Strongest Opponent (FCS) : Portland State
Weakest Opponent: Brevard
Was the Season Successful for Utah State?
If you are disappointed with how the season turned out from Utah State, you are probably not alone. It's not just what happened against BYU. When they beat Boise State, I thought, and I wasn't alone, that they would breeze through the rest of their conference schedule and wouldn't be challenged again until BYU came to Logan. But then they go an lose 3 of the next 4. Utah State is far enough removed from their days of futility that expectations are higher, as they should be. At least they finished bowl eligible, even if they end up going to Albuquerque for their bowl game.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic 5-7, Optimistic 9-3
Best Win: Boise State
Worst Loss: At Air Force
What worked for them: Defense, play calling, Kent Meyers when healthy, Chuckie when healthy
What worked against them: Injuries, trouble on the road, recovering from momentum-changing plays, running back contribution.
Actual Record: 6-6
Southern Utah: Expected Win
At Utah: Expected Loss
At Washington: Expected Loss
Colorado State: Expected Win
At Fresno State: Expected Win
Boise State: Upset Win
At San Diego State: Toss-up Loss
Wyoming: Expected Win
At New Mexico: Upset Loss
At Air Force: Toss-up Loss
Nevada: Toss-up Win
BYU: Toss-up Loss
Better than expected opponents: New Mexico, Air Force
Weaker than expected opponents: Boise State
Strongest Opponent: Utah
Weakest Opponent (FBS--And in this case, overall): Wyoming
Post Season Note: SI expect a rematch in the Armed Force Bowl--USU vs. Washington.
Was the season a success for the BYU Cougars?
Whether or not the 2015 football team was a success for BYU depends a lot of whether you are a glass half-empty or half-full person. On the half-full side, there were injuries, suspensions, and all sorts of other problems and the team still won 9 games. People on the other side of the coin will point to two almost wins as evidence things could have been better. What was expected to be a really tough schedule turned out to be manageable as teams like Nebraska and Boise State turned out not to be as good as expected. As for fan expectations, there is a level of obsession that turns into...well that is the topic for another blog.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 7-5. Optimistic: 10-2
Best Win: At Nebraska
Worst Loss: At Michigan
What worked: Tanner Mangum, receiving corps, Bronson Kafusi
What didn't work: Magic wasn't always there, especially on defense in 3 losses.
Actual Record: 9-3
Game by game:
At Nebraska: Toss-up Win
Boise State: Expected Win
At UCLA: Expected Loss
At Michigan: Expected Loss
Connecticut: Expected Win
East Carolina: Expected Win
Cincinnati: Expected Win
Wagner: Expected Win
At San Jose State: Expected Win
At (technically) Missouri: Toss-up Loss
Fresno State: Expected Win
At Utah State: Toss-up Win
Better than expected opposition: Michigan
Weaker than expected opposition: Nebraska, Boise State
Close win that should not have been so close: San Jose State
Strongest opponent: Michigan
Weakest opponent (FBS): Fresno State
Note: I said at the beginning of the year that what BYU needed to get into the Big 12 was to convince the members of the conference that BYU is the only choice. Getting shut out at The Big House may as well have been 6 losses. They didn't have to win that game, they only had to look respectable in losing. That didn't happen.
Was the season a success for the Utah Utes?
Utah is in the same boat as BYU. Whether or not fans see the season as a success depends on whether you are a glass half-empty or half-full type of person. But the season, you have to admit, was quite the roller coaster ride. And it was a fun one, depending on, as Bronco Mendenhall would put it, your level of investment in the program. And like a real roller coaster, the end of the season was a little flat, especially after the loss of Devontae Booker. It was a blow to a team that was overachieving all year.
Expectation at the Beginning of the season (considering how the competition changed): Pessimistic: 7-5, Optimistic: 8-4
Best Win: At Oregon
Worst Loss: UCLA
Actual Record: 9-3
Game by game
Michigan: Upset Win
Utah State: Expected Win
At Fresno State: Expected Win
At Oregon: Upset Win
California: Expected Win
Arizona State: Expected Win
At USC: Expected Loss
Oregon State: Expected Win
At Arizona: Upset loss
UCLA: Toss-up Loss
Colorado: Expected Win
Stronger than expected opposition: Michigan, California
Weaker than expected opposition: Fresno State, Oregon State
Strongest Opponent: Michigan
Weakest Opponent: Fresno State
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