Is Conference Expansion Finished?

Updated 3/28

I've stayed away from speculation for a while.  But obviously, the question is no.  But seeing what has happened the last 3 years has revealed a pattern.  It's not really expansion, it's consolidation.  Basically, the stronger big conferences have be taking out the weaker big conferences.  In all of the conference expansion that has happened over the past 4 years, only 2 schools have been added to the ranks of the elite conferences.  There will probably only be one more.  These big conferences are really looking at garnering all of the TV money they can.  They also want to be the only schools that elite athletes will consider. They are trying to use elite athletics status to gain big research money, even though none of the dollars slated for athletics go to academics or research. If you are not in a big conference now, there is really little hope of getting in.

There are a couple of caveats to this theory.  First, the ACC probably will not go quietly.  If the Big 12 makes a serious move for the likes of Florida State, there will be an aggressive counter-offer.  Same for the Big 12.  The Big 12 will take whatever steps necessary to protect their existence.  One of the other is going to lose it's elite status and both will fight it vigorously.  I expect the Big 12 will win.

I expect BYU to get to the Big 12, but because there are not a lot of better options for that conference.  It will be BYU or an ACC school that rocks the hardwood but not the gridiron.  In Texas and Oklahoma, football rules.  BYU is a better option than Duke or NC State right now.

B1G Ten

The Big 10 will add 2 more to reach 16 and that will begin the downfall of the ACC.

Illinois	Indiana	Iowa	Maryland
Michigan	Michigan State	Minnesota	Nebraska
North Carolina	Northwestern	Ohio State	Penn State
Purdue	Rutgers	Virginia	Wisconsin

Big 12

There will be pressure for the Big 12 to expand to 16 to "Keep up with the Jonses"  They will help carve up the ACC if they become the stronger conference.  The Big 12 also has the name Big 16 reserved.

Baylor	Brigham Young	Georgia Tech	Florida State
Iowa State	Kansas	Kansas State	Louisville
Miami	Notre Dame	Oklahoma	Oklahoma State
Texas	Texas Tech	Texas Christian	West Virginia

Pac-12 (Will remain at 12)

Even though there will be pressure to expand to 16, the Big 12 is now too strong to carve up.  There will be no place for the PAC-12 to go unless they are will to consider Cal-State schools, UNLV and Boise State.  That would take a major loss of ego to do that.

Arizona	Arizona State	California	Colorado
Oregon	Oregon State	Stanford	UCLA
USC	Utah	Washington	Washington State

SEC

The SEC will continue to the carve up of the ACC.

Alabama	Arkansas	Auburn	Clemson
Florida	Georgia	Kentucky	Louisiana State
Missouri	Mississippi	Mississippi State	South Carolina
Tennessee	Texas A&M	Vanderbilt	Virginia Tech

Middle Tier, the tier where those busting into the BCS playoffs from the outside will come from 9 out of every 10 years.

ACC

What will be left of the ACC will be a pretty good basketball conference, but in football, they will be so weakened that they will not longer be considered and elite football conference.  This conference, even though only 10 strong, would get as many as 6 NCAA tournament bids every season.  Adding UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis and Temple will be a must, and the focus will turn to basketball.  You may see them hack up what I now call, the America 12 conference.

Boston College	Connecticut	Cincinnati	Duke
Memphis	North Carolina State	Pittsburgh	Temple
Syracuse	Wake Forest

America 12
What was the former football Big East will eventually be made of up mostly former C-USA members.  I put MTSU and UTSA here because of their proximity to larger TV markets.

Army	Central Florida	Houston	Middle Tennessee
Navy	Rice	South Florida	Southern Methodist
Southern Mississippi	UTSA	Tulsa	Tulane

Mountain West

The MWC is considered a conference that is still not quite strong enough to be considered elite.   I do not see the conference expanding to 14 unless they can break into elite status or if BYU changes it's mind on independence and does not get into an elite conference.  They may expand if again if the PAC-12 decides to become 16 and they are the only conference the PAC-12 can raid.  If I were Idaho, however, I would not hold my breath waiting for this any of this to happen.  If the MWC were to expand or get replacements, I would think that they would go to Texas (SMU, Houston, UTEP, Rice) before they would consider Idaho or New Mexico State.  I also think that Portland State, UC Davis, Cal Poly and even Sacramento State would be considered before Idaho, because these schools have better facilities, are in larger markets and are closer to recruiting hotbeds.

I don't believe the MWC will or should look for a non-football school to replace Hawaii and even out their basketball membership, but will instead attempt to get Hawaii to come into the conference for all sports.  Of course, they will probably need a good TV deal to get that, and they may have to slit into divisions in non-football sports.  The division split would mean that Hawaii, for non-football sports, would only travel to half of the conference schools east of Las Vegas in any given year instead of all of them.  That will save their travel budget.

Air Force	Boise State	Colorado State	Fresno State
Hawaii (Football Only)	Nevada	UNLV	New Mexico
San Diego State	San Jose State	Utah State	Wyoming

Lower Tier

Conference USA

I want to spell this Conference-USA with lower-case letters ie...c-usa.  It's just not what it once was.  Hopefully, this line-up will produce stable membership.  No serious chance for a BCS-playoff buster until the membership becomes stable.  Out of the teams that are not currently in c-usa?  They will have to raid the Sun Belt for more members.

Alabama Birmingham	UNC Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	Florida International
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	Marshall	Old Dominion
UTEP	Western Kentucky

MAC

The MAC will remain stable and relatively untouched.  If Conference-USA were more stable, the MAC would be more unstable as some of the southern MAC members may find C-USA more attractive, but not c-usa.  I do not believe that c-usa will be attractive to any current member of the MAC.

Akron	Ball State	Bowling Green	Buffalo
Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	Kent	Miami (Ohio)
Massachusetts	Northern Illinois	Ohio	Toledo
Western Michigan

Sun Belt

This will continue to the the primary conference that FCS schools in the south and the east will look to when looking to move up to the FBS.  This conference has just announced expansion to 12 for football with the addition of Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern with Idaho and New Mexico State as football-only members.  This is likely not the final makeup as members may end up in other conferences.  Perhaps, the Sun Bel will eventually get a football-only western division with Cal Poly and UC Davis and possible some other schools from the Big Sky Conference.

Arkansas State	Arkansas Little Rock (Non football)	Appalachian State	Georgia State
Georgia Southern	Idaho (Football Only-Big Sky)	New Mexico State (Football Only-WAC)	South Alabama
Texas State	Troy	UL Lafayette	UL Monroe