BYU's conference options, fact vs fiction.

Tom Holmoe has clarified where BYU stands with the Big 12.  Please see this Deseret News article.  We learned 2 things.

1.  BYU has not been offered a chance to join the Big 12.
2.  The only demand that BYU has made is to not play on Sunday.

That is all that has been revealed.  Anything else is conjecture.  It's hearsay.  It's rumor.  It's not going to happen.

That part about not playing on Sunday IS a big deal, especially in basketball and baseball.  But let me take an exception to what was in the Deseret News article about Sunday play and what TV partners might be thinking.

First of all, most of the NCAA basketball season, which runs from late November to early March, runs along side the NFL season.  In November, December and January, sports channels are not going to be showing Kansas, Duke and the other big boys on Sunday.  It would be a wasted opportunity.  Even if you are Duke basketball, you are not going to compete against the NFL.

And what do NFL fans do in February, anyway.  I can't find a study that tells me anything.  I think it depends on the climate.  Some watch other sports, including college basketball.  Some golf, bike, hike.  Some go to their regular bars and drink, even though there is no football on.  You could ask 100 NFL fans, and you would have 100 different answers. 

I also found out that Kansas has no Sunday games this year.  And the Big 12 championship game is on Saturday.  The Big Conference want the best NCAA seeding possible, and therefore want their championships played on Saturday so that they are not playing games when the NCAA committee is meeting.  Only conferences with guaranteed high bids, only where the championship won't affect seeding, will play on Sunday.  Right now that is the Big 10, Big East and ACC.  For the Big 12, if Kansas looses before the championship, you probably want the members of the NCAA committee watching. 

The smaller conferences, the ones who would get TV games on Sunday afternoon are the ones that would be hurt by no Sunday play.  The WCC is doing more to accommodate BYU than the Big 12 would ever need to make.

The Sunday play issue is a bigger problem for the non-TV sports.  When I was at Nebraska, someone explained this to me when we were talking about BYU.  If you play on Friday night/Sunday afternoon, a team can make a road trip and not miss any classes.  That is not true for Thursday/Saturday/Monday.

It is even more of a problem for baseball and softball.  Usually, a college baseball/softball team will play a 3-game series on Friday/Saturday/Sunday.  Again, few if any classes are missed.  BYU would require a Thursday/Friday/Saturday schedule.

But the Big 12 could accommodate BYU's no-Sunday policy if they really wanted to.  Student athletes and coaches understand that missing classes from time to time is part of the deal.  They are, in fact, willing to make those sacrifices.  Often, when athletes travel to a Friday game, they are missing classes on Thursday.  Often, when they play a Sunday game, they are missing classes on Monday.  It all depends on what travel arrangements one can make.

But there are other speculations that could cause BYU trouble with the Big 12.  First, if BYU gets into the Big 12, they potentially bring the 4th largest market to the conference, behind Dallas/Ft Worth, Kansas City and Austin.  They would have the 2nd largest enrollment, behind Texas.  They would have the 3rd largest football stadium, behind Texas and Oklahoma.  And they would have the largest basketball arena.  They would be a power player right away.  Some schools would be surrendering power to add BYU.  

However, power will add value to the Big 12.  BYU will increase their TV revenue potential.

Now, let me speculate on my own a bit.  The Big 12 is not going to expand to 11.  Someone has to come in with BYU.  Who else could even come close to offering to the Big 12 what BYU does.  Boise State, perhaps.  But they are in a small market.  UNLV might be better because they are in Las Vegas, which is a growing market.  And even though football has not been lighting things on fire, they are building a new on-campus football stadium.  But when it comes to good, potential BCS conference members, UNLV doesn't exactly come to mind.  Air Force, but then again, they recruit pilots, not football players.

The lack of a partner is probably, at least in my opinion, the reason BYU is not in the Big 12.

There are dozens of scenarios that could land BYU in the Big 12.  Perhaps the ACC goes after Kansas.  Perhaps the PAC 12 gets Oklahoma.  Something like that will open a spot for BYU...a last ditch replacement.

Preferably, however, the PAC-12 has a change of heart and decides to take BYU after all.

Right now all of this is crazy talk.  But conference realignment has been crazy, lately, hasn't it.  For now, I expect that BYU will remain independent.