Even though the offense gets the glory and much of the credit, it is the defense that actually keeps a team in the game and gives them the chance to win. Utah State has the most under-appreciated defense in college football. They are 9th in scoring defense, even though Chuckie Keeton and Kerwynn Williams get all of the good press, the Aggies would not be 10-1 without the defense. On offense, the Rockets and the Aggies are statistically similar. On defense, one team has been consistently better than the other. That is the real reason why Utah State is 2 kicks away from a BCS bowl and Toledo was 3rd in the MAC.
Toledo comes into this game with a 9-3 record and each of their three losses are by one score. They dropped a game in overtime at Arizona and lost to Ball State and Northern Illionois by 7 points each. Like the Aggies, they are close to being unbeaten. But on defense, they give up 27.3 points per game, compared to USU's 15.4 points per game.
The offense scores 32.9 compared with USU's 34.4. Junior quarterback Terrance Owens is the regular starter. But he did not play in the season finale vs. Akron because of an ankle injury in the game against Northern Illinois. Toledo features a short passing game, which they hope opens up the running game and the long ball. Owens has a 139.4 PE rating and completes 62% of his passes for 8 yards per attempt. Dave Fluellen is the work horse in the backfield. He has over 1400 yards this season. The offense is very strong.
The defense is the Achilles heal for the Rockets. They have been vulnerable to big plays all season. The defense has not only given up 27.3 points per game, but have given the opposition an average of 464 yards per game, including 168 yards per game on the ground.
Therefore, I expect that the Rockets will move the ball and score a few points on the Aggies, but I would also expect that Kerwynn Williams will have a big game against the Rocket defense. USU should cap their season with a nice bowl win.
USU 40 Toledo 17
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