Poinsettia Bowl Preview.

San Diego State and BYU has some great history in games on ESPN.  The two teams have hooked up for some classics.

But if this an offensive shootout you are looking for, like the Ty Detmer vs. Marshall Faulk shootout of 1991, then prepare for disappointment.  Neither team, this year, has that kind of firepower, or do they?  Both teams have been a disappointment in ways, and both teams have had their successes.

The best win for San Diego State was a victory on the road at Boise State, something that the BYU Cougars were not able to complete.  And that difference also marks the opening for the Aztecs to beat the favored Cougars.

BYU will slow down, if not frustrate the Aztec running game anchored by Adam Muema.  But that has not been enough to stop them, at times.  Muema has been held under 100 yards 6 times this season, but SDSU won 4 of them.  Adam, don't laugh at the name, Dingwell is certainly a capable enough quarterback to win this game the same way that Cody Vaz and David Fales beat the Cougar defense in the regular season.  He has done very well for the Aztecs since regular starter Ryan Katz went out in the first quarter against Nevada, a game which the Aztecs won.  In fact, Dingwell has not lost since taking over, and has led SDSU to victories over Nevada, Boise State and Air Force.

BYU needs to have Riley Nelson play a clean game in order to win.  BYU, and particularly Nelson, have be victims of the turnover bug in 2012.  And it is points off of turnovers that count.  BYU has played 4 games where the opposition has scored more points off of turnovers than the Cougars have, and the Cougars lost 3 of them.  Turnovers were the difference for BYU against Boise State and Utah.

Turnovers are the Achilles Heal of the Aztecs as well, they are -1 in turnover margin.  SDSU quarterbacks have only thrown 8 interceptions and have forced 11 on the season.  But they have given up 15 fumbles to their opponents while forcing only 11.  It seems that turnovers will be a factor in this games.

My hunch is that San Diego State will have to rely on the arm of Adam Dingwell to win the game.  BYU will not give up a lot of yards on the ground, so the Aztecs will need to look to score from outside the red zone, just like San Jose State and Oregon State did on BYU.  It's hard to score in the red zone on anyone when the run game is shut down.

Neither team has a spectacular kicking game, both teams hope the game does not come down to a final kick for them.  It could be missed.

If Riley Nelson, as he is prone to do, forces the ball when no one is open, BYU is going to lose scoring opportunities, even if the Aztecs don't score off of any of BYU's turnovers.  (See San Jose State).  My hunch is that Riley Nelson will do this at least twice.  That will be the difference in the game.

It may upset a lot of BYU fans, but unless Riley Nelson is knocked unconscious, I don't see James Lark coming playing at all. The ultimate justice for Lark will be playing professionally.

27-21 San Diego State

 Update:

There is a possibility that Riley Nelson will not be healthy for the Poinsettia Bowl and Ryan Katz will available for the Aztecs.  Katz may end up as Dingwell's backup, as the later has the hot hand.  James Lark, who started against New Mexico State has yet to start against a quality opponent.  Against New Mexico State, Lark had a 172.1 rating.  San Jose State's David Fales had a 257.7.  They were tow of the three quarterbacks who had their best game of the season against the Aggies.  Not certain that Lark will be BYU's savior in this game and not sure how he will do against an average defense.  However, try convincing certain Cougar fans that Lark may not do all that well, and you could find yourself on the short end of a shout down.  My assessment is the same, if BYU does not turn the ball over, they can win the game.