BYU Season in Review

I believed that I was all set to write a good season in review post for BYU this year, then I read this letter to the editor.

The question that I want to answer is this, did the BYU football team live up to their potential in 2012?  This reason for this question is the point that the author of this article brings out.  8-5 is not a bad season.  It is much better than the average college football team.  8-5 would be a good record if BYU was truly living up to their potential for 2012.

The main question that needs to be answered:  Doesn't BYU normally have a stellar season with a senior quarterback at the helm?  In 2012, BYU was quarterbacked by senior Riley Nelson.  He started 9 of BYU's 13 games this year.  But he was the quarterback for all 5 of BYU's losses.  There were at least 3 games, that we know of, where Riley played injured in 2012.  All three; Utah, Boise State and San Jose State were losses.  But he can't really blame his injuries for at least one of those losses.

Against Utah, the game turned on a play in the third quarter where the center snapped the ball when Riley was not ready for it.  Riley tried to save the play instead of falling on the football and securing it.  The fumble was returned by Utah for a touchdown.  On the next drive, Nelson was clearly shell shocked and the Cougars lost 13 yards.  That was followed by a bad punt, and Utah started the ensuing drive on the BYU side of the 50 yard line.  On first down, John Hays threw a deep ball that was caught for a touchdown.  In just a matter of a couple of minutes, Utah scored 14 points.  That was the difference in the game, not the missed field goals at the end.  If Nelson falls on the loose ball, there is a loss of yardage, BYU punts, but they probably win the game.

Those two minutes of breakdown were mistakes that even average football teams do not make.  Mostly, the problems can be blamed on the offensive line.  But a senior quarterback should know how to rally his team behind him, even right after a big mistake.

Compare how Nelson was as a starter to other recent senior BYU starting quarterbacks.

James Lark 2012: 2-0 (Note: Won Poinsettia Bowl)
Riley Nelson 2012: 4-5 (Note: due to injuries, Nelson started 9 games for BYU.  Freshman Taysom Hill started 2 games early in the season.  Senior James Lark started the last regular season game and the Poinsettia Bowl.  Both of the other starting quarterbacks were each 2-0).
Max Hall 2009: 11-2* (Note: Won Las Vegas Bowl)
John Beck 2006: 11-2* (Note: Won Las Vegas Bowl)
Brandon Doman 2001: 12-2* (Note: Lost Liberty Bowl)
Steve Sarkisian 1996: 14-1* (Note: Won Cotton Bowl)
Ty Detmer 1991: 8-3-2* (Note: Tied Holiday Bowl)
Steve Lindsley 1986: 7-4 (Note: Lost Freedom Bowl, but Lindsley did not start, nor did he start in the regular season finale against Air Force.  BYU was 8-5 in 1986.)
Robbie Bosco 1985: 11-3* (Note: Lost Florida Citrus Bowl)
Steve Young 1983: 11-1* (Note: Won Holiday Bowl)
Jim McMahon 1981: 11-2* (Note: Won Holiday Bowl)
Marc Wilson 1979: 11-1* (Note: Lost Holiday Bowl)
Gifford Nielsen 1977: 3-1 (Note: Marc Wilson started the majority of games in 1977, after Neilsen's season -ending knee injury.  BYU finished 9-2 and turned down an invite to the Fiesta Bowl because it was played on Sunday that year.)*

Mark Giles 1975: 1-4 (Note: Giles started the first 4 games of 1975 and on last game of the season against Southern Mississippi, was benched in the 2nd half of the New Mexico game, which BYU won after Gifford Nielsen came off the bench and rallied the offense.  Nielsen started the next 6 games and was 5-1 as a starter.  BYU was 6-5 that season.).
Gary Sheide 1974: 7-4-1* (Note: Lost Fiesta Bowl).

Note: LaVell Edwards began his career at BYU in 1972.  This list is for all senior quarterbacks who played at BYU during the Edwards/Crowton/Mendenhall tenures at BYU.

*Indicates conference championship

Compared to other BYU seniors, Riley Nelson had the worst overall record as a starter since Mark Giles in 1975.  Giles was benched in favor of Gifford Nielsen after Nielson led a 4th quarter comeback against New Mexico in the 4th game of the season and BYU salvaged a winning record after beginning 1-3.  Giles, as a senior, was allowed to start the final game of the 1975 season when it was determined that BYU had nothing to play for in the last game of the season against Southern Mississippi.

As BYU was independent in 2012, we don't know if BYU would have won a conference championship, but they did play two of the three MWC co-champions.  BYU lost to Boise State with Nelson starting and BYU beat San Diego State with Lark starting.

The other two quarterbacks that did not win conference championships as seniors had one thing in common, they were not starters as juniors.  Nelson started more than half the season in 2011 as a junior and had a very good record.

The other indicator of not living up to a school's potential is the would-have/could-have/should-haves.  We already discussed the play against Utah.  There were similar plays against Boise State, Notre Dame and San Jose State.  Take back one bad  mistake by Nelson in 4 of BYU's 5 losses, and BYU is 11-1 in the regular season and playing against Florida State in the Orange Bowl.  Compare this to Ty Detmer's senior season, where BYU also had fewer than 10 wins.  BYU's 3 losses did not turn on 1 mistake, they were blow outs where BYU was outmatched.  One mistake turned turned the Holiday Bowl that year from a win to a tie.  But there was nothing that Ty Detmer could have done better in any of the three losses.

This is all underscored by the stellar performance of BYU's defense.  A defense does not win games if the offense can't score, with few exceptions.  But there was only one such exception in the 2012 season, the Poinsettia Bowl where the defense (actually one defender) scored two of BYU's three touchdowns.

Nelson was not entirely at fault for what happened this season, there were play calls, particularly late in the San Jose State game, that could have saved a victory.  But those plays were not properly called.  Nelson did not enjoy the best of protection this season, and there were injuries on the offensive line from the beginning of the season.  In fact, the BYU spring game was changed because there were too many offensive line injuries.  This could be because the offensive line is too small to contend against BYU's defensive line in practice.  Perhaps BYU needs return to recruiting bigger and stronger offensive lineman.

8-5 is not a bad season, and there have been many seasons where the BYU team has been worse and been considered a success.  I would conclude that 8-5 was not a good season for BYU because they did not live up to their potential mainly because one player made one too many mistakes in at least 4 games.

In 2013, BYU looks to struggle to have a winning season unless they make the needed improvements.  Another 8-5 season may be considered a success because the level of competition is much stronger.  BYU has one more game to schedule in 2013.  They could schedule 2 more game with the Hawaii exception.  It could be Tulane, Boston College or an FCS school.  It should be a winnable game because there are a lot of good teams on that schedule already.  They open the season at Virginia have nother game at Notre Dame, a game at Gary Anderson's new team, Wisconsin and home games against Utah, Texas and Boise State.  BYU will have to win at least one of these games just to make a bowl game.

Quarterback Taysom Hill looked good in the games he started.  Running back Jamaal Williams also looks promising.  They could have as many as 3 of the awesome front 7 will be back pending Kyle Van Noy's decision on the NFL draft.  In addition to Spencer Hadley, they could get medical redshirts for Eathyn Manumaleuna and Ian Dulan, which would soften the blow of losing Ziggy Ansah, Uona Keveinga, Romney Fuga, Brandon Ogletree and Van Noy.  But some of their other young players will have to step up and fill the gap. Bronson Kafusi and others will have the chance to prove themselves.

BYU will have to improve on offense to get to a bowl game in 2013.  That could mean a coaching change, but they need a more consistent offensive line even if they do not change coaches.

2012 could be a turning point for BYU.  They could use it to address weaknesses in their system and get better, or it could be the beginning of many years of mediocrity.  2013 will tell us which way it will go.