Someone once told me to only believe half of what you read, even it is in the Salt Lake Tribune. I have a hard time believing that Utah State wants to Block Utah Valley's admittance to the WAC. It is not a state secret that the WAC is floundering right now. It is also not a state secret that the Mountain West Conference will likely not come to the Aggies rescue should the WAC fold. You would think that Utah State would be all for Utah Valley.
The Tribune Article does not mention that a couple of very good Utah State Basketball Aggies have come from the Utah Valley. But this area is not really Aggie country, it's BYU's backyard. The Cougars have done well enough recruiting in their own back yard and likely do not see UVU as a threat to their basketball prowess. Besides, BYU is private and can not block the move with the regents and after spurning the floundering WAC for the WCC, would not hold sway with any WAC presidents at all. Utah is losing the battle for local recruits, but they are in the PAC-12 and shouldn't need to block anything and would also have little influence with the WAC as well, although they do have a lot of sway with board of regents.
My readers know that I have been following WAC expansion very closely. It is my opinion, and only MHO, that the WAC does not want The Valley unless they are willing to add football in the next few years. Something which is not likely to happen in the current economy.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Monday, May 30, 2011
Who Is Really Ready for the WAC?
How are perspective WAC candidates doing financially? It is not that difficult to find out. The US department of education keeps track for the purposes of enforcing Title IX. Most schools at least break even, as their athletic programs are subsidized by student fees. Most FCS schools will do a little better in the FBS if they can get fans to show up to football games as that represents a big percentage of the money they collect. Below is a list of perspective new WAC members and how profitable their athletic programs are.
This is 2009 data. 2010 data is not yet available.
Here is the site to get the data:
http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/GetOneInstitutionData.aspx
Big Sky Conference:
Cal Poly 2,911,000
UC Davis 1,256,000
Idaho State 625,000
Northern Arizona 426,000
Weber State 287,000
Northern Colo 239,000
North Dakota 161,000
Montana 43,000
Montana State 11,000
Eastern Washington 0
Portland State 0
Sacramento State 0
Southland Conference
Sam Houston State 293,000
Lamar 126,000
Stephen F Austin 0
Others:
North Dakota State 43,000
Basketball Only
CS Bakersfield 0
Seattle 0
Texas Arlington 0
Utah Valley 0
Schools That Could Bring Back Football
CS Fullerton 0
Long Beach State 770
Pacific 0
UC Santa Barbara 490,000
Conclusion:
After seeing this data, I can see why Montana did not join the WAC last fall. They are not ready, the school would lose money with the extra expenses likely outpacing the extra revenues. Cal Poly and UC Davis, if they can get a stadium, would do well in the WAC. So would Sam Houston State and Lamar. Portland State, rumored to have an invitation from the WAC is breaking even, and would probably struggle for a while, unless they can get fans to come to games. You can also see why Utah State is luke warm to Utah Valley and why the WAC is hesitant to bring in any basketball-only schools. You can also see why there are so few schools willing to bring back football.
If you only had the financial numbers, and the size of the market of the schools, who would you pick?
This is 2009 data. 2010 data is not yet available.
Here is the site to get the data:
http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/GetOneInstitutionData.aspx
Big Sky Conference:
Cal Poly 2,911,000
UC Davis 1,256,000
Idaho State 625,000
Northern Arizona 426,000
Weber State 287,000
Northern Colo 239,000
North Dakota 161,000
Montana 43,000
Montana State 11,000
Eastern Washington 0
Portland State 0
Sacramento State 0
Southland Conference
Sam Houston State 293,000
Lamar 126,000
Stephen F Austin 0
Others:
North Dakota State 43,000
Basketball Only
CS Bakersfield 0
Seattle 0
Texas Arlington 0
Utah Valley 0
Schools That Could Bring Back Football
CS Fullerton 0
Long Beach State 770
Pacific 0
UC Santa Barbara 490,000
Conclusion:
After seeing this data, I can see why Montana did not join the WAC last fall. They are not ready, the school would lose money with the extra expenses likely outpacing the extra revenues. Cal Poly and UC Davis, if they can get a stadium, would do well in the WAC. So would Sam Houston State and Lamar. Portland State, rumored to have an invitation from the WAC is breaking even, and would probably struggle for a while, unless they can get fans to come to games. You can also see why Utah State is luke warm to Utah Valley and why the WAC is hesitant to bring in any basketball-only schools. You can also see why there are so few schools willing to bring back football.
If you only had the financial numbers, and the size of the market of the schools, who would you pick?
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Not So Fast Take on College Football Split
One problem that I have had with the proposal out of the Big 10 that schools pay for the full cost of attendance is that fact that TV revenue is the only factor considered in which schools could make it is TV revenue. For many schools, even huge TV numbers are only a piece of the total pie when it comes to revenue. Many schools, in fact, make more money from attendance and donations than they make from TV. Therefore, one can come to the conclusion that if the Big 10 proposal were approved, that likely that not even the Big 10 would make the cut. There are schools from the BCS conferences that are struggling with revenue in spite of getting big TV money. And there are schools from non-automatic qualifying conferences that do well even without a huge chunk of TV money. But, the TV money helps.
Attendance is the biggest driver in college football revenue.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college/2009/07/how-much-revenue-did-your-favorite-fbs-school-take-in-in-200708-this-chart-will-tell-you.html
But as you can can see by comparing to 2008 attendance figures, TV money is a factor. Donations from alumni and corporate sponsorships make up the rest.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2008.pdf
It is estimated that the total cost of education would add as much as 1 million dollars in cost per school. BYU and Utah would likely be able to handle this additional expense. In two years time, Utah will be raking in an additional 20 to 40 million in revenue, and although costs will increase, it will not be by 20 to 40 million dollars. BYU's TV deal with ESPN is worth 3 to 18 million dollars depending on how often the Cougars show up on the World Wide Leader and whether or not they get to a bowl game.
BYU, according to the Department of Education (http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/GetOneInstitutionData.aspx), made about 5,000,000 in profit in 2009. Utah broke even in 2009. Utah State lost 25,000 in their sports programs in 2009, but also paid for upgrades to their facilities. Weber State netted about 287,000 in 2009. Southern Utah netted about 96,000.
In 2009, BYU averaged about 64,000 people per game, Utah about 45,000, Utah State about 16,000, Weber State around 6,500 and Southern Utah about 5,000. Across the country, there is a correlation between attendance and revenues for sports. The best thing that a person can do to show support for their favorite team is to show up on game day and buy a ticket.
Therefore, the results of the proposal to split Division I into 4 subdivision(Remember, there is also Division I-AAA or the no football subdivision), I would do it like this.
New Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I-A).
-Pays full cost of attendance.
-Paid or actual attendance at football games, at least 35,000 (Each conference can keep two members that are below the standard.)
-18 sponsored sports, at least 6 men's programs and 8 women's programs. 90% scholarships.
-All schools, except for the service academies, must award doctoral degrees.
-BCS+1 playoff.
Make up:Current BCS Conferences
Plus non BCS Schools that could make the cut:
BYU, East Carolina, Hawaii, Air Force and UCF are non-BCS schools that meet this attendance standard. Cincinnati, Duke and Washington State are BCS Programs that do not meet this standard.
New Football Playoff Subdivision (Division I-AA):
-Traditional Scholarships
-Paid or actual attendance at football games, at least 8,000 (Conference Average, meaning, the conference could carry two schools that do not meet the attendance standard.) (8,000 would be a starting number, it should eventually be raised to 10,000 once the economy improves.)
-At least 12 sponsored sports, at least 4 men's and 6 women's sports. 75% scholarships.
-All schools must award master's degrees.
-20 team playoff.
Make up: 11 Conferences: C-USA, MWC, WAC, MAC, Sun Belt, SoCon, Missouri Valley Football Conference, Big Sky, MEAC, Southland and CAA
Some schools in this alignment would have to drop down if they do not meet the attendance requirement or other requirements. This would be the case for at least 5 members of the 13-member Big Sky conference, for example. (Idaho State, Weber State, Portland State, Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado.) But the conference can keep two members that are below the standard.
Football Championship Subdivision (Division I-AAA)
-Current FCS Standards (50% scholarships)
-Paid or actual attendance, at least 5,000 (Conference Average)
-12-team playoff.
Makeup: 10 Conferences: Ohio Valley, Big South, Patriot, Pioneer, NEAC, Ivy, SWAC + Plus 3 other conferences made up of current FCS teams that would not qualify for the FPS (Such as Indiana State or Northern Colorado) and Division II schools (Like West Texas A&M and Angelo State (17 Schools met this standard in 2009)) that have a high enough attendance to move up.
No Football Subdivision (Division I-AAAA)
-A schools that otherwise qualify for Division I, that do not sponsor football teams.
May 30 Update:
I have not taken the time to look at all 120 programs, but have taken a look at the Department of Education site for many I thought were in trouble. The fact is, they are not. Nearly everyone at least breaks even. I think that this proposal will go down as the biggest much ado about nothing in sports history. At most, it will encourage some programs that do not draw well at the gate to drop to the FCS and discourage some programs from making the jump to the FBS.
Attendance is the biggest driver in college football revenue.
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college/2009/07/how-much-revenue-did-your-favorite-fbs-school-take-in-in-200708-this-chart-will-tell-you.html
But as you can can see by comparing to 2008 attendance figures, TV money is a factor. Donations from alumni and corporate sponsorships make up the rest.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2008.pdf
It is estimated that the total cost of education would add as much as 1 million dollars in cost per school. BYU and Utah would likely be able to handle this additional expense. In two years time, Utah will be raking in an additional 20 to 40 million in revenue, and although costs will increase, it will not be by 20 to 40 million dollars. BYU's TV deal with ESPN is worth 3 to 18 million dollars depending on how often the Cougars show up on the World Wide Leader and whether or not they get to a bowl game.
BYU, according to the Department of Education (http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/GetOneInstitutionData.aspx), made about 5,000,000 in profit in 2009. Utah broke even in 2009. Utah State lost 25,000 in their sports programs in 2009, but also paid for upgrades to their facilities. Weber State netted about 287,000 in 2009. Southern Utah netted about 96,000.
In 2009, BYU averaged about 64,000 people per game, Utah about 45,000, Utah State about 16,000, Weber State around 6,500 and Southern Utah about 5,000. Across the country, there is a correlation between attendance and revenues for sports. The best thing that a person can do to show support for their favorite team is to show up on game day and buy a ticket.
Therefore, the results of the proposal to split Division I into 4 subdivision(Remember, there is also Division I-AAA or the no football subdivision), I would do it like this.
New Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I-A).
-Pays full cost of attendance.
-Paid or actual attendance at football games, at least 35,000 (Each conference can keep two members that are below the standard.)
-18 sponsored sports, at least 6 men's programs and 8 women's programs. 90% scholarships.
-All schools, except for the service academies, must award doctoral degrees.
-BCS+1 playoff.
Make up:Current BCS Conferences
Plus non BCS Schools that could make the cut:
BYU, East Carolina, Hawaii, Air Force and UCF are non-BCS schools that meet this attendance standard. Cincinnati, Duke and Washington State are BCS Programs that do not meet this standard.
New Football Playoff Subdivision (Division I-AA):
-Traditional Scholarships
-Paid or actual attendance at football games, at least 8,000 (Conference Average, meaning, the conference could carry two schools that do not meet the attendance standard.) (8,000 would be a starting number, it should eventually be raised to 10,000 once the economy improves.)
-At least 12 sponsored sports, at least 4 men's and 6 women's sports. 75% scholarships.
-All schools must award master's degrees.
-20 team playoff.
Make up: 11 Conferences: C-USA, MWC, WAC, MAC, Sun Belt, SoCon, Missouri Valley Football Conference, Big Sky, MEAC, Southland and CAA
Some schools in this alignment would have to drop down if they do not meet the attendance requirement or other requirements. This would be the case for at least 5 members of the 13-member Big Sky conference, for example. (Idaho State, Weber State, Portland State, Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado.) But the conference can keep two members that are below the standard.
Football Championship Subdivision (Division I-AAA)
-Current FCS Standards (50% scholarships)
-Paid or actual attendance, at least 5,000 (Conference Average)
-12-team playoff.
Makeup: 10 Conferences: Ohio Valley, Big South, Patriot, Pioneer, NEAC, Ivy, SWAC + Plus 3 other conferences made up of current FCS teams that would not qualify for the FPS (Such as Indiana State or Northern Colorado) and Division II schools (Like West Texas A&M and Angelo State (17 Schools met this standard in 2009)) that have a high enough attendance to move up.
No Football Subdivision (Division I-AAAA)
-A schools that otherwise qualify for Division I, that do not sponsor football teams.
May 30 Update:
I have not taken the time to look at all 120 programs, but have taken a look at the Department of Education site for many I thought were in trouble. The fact is, they are not. Nearly everyone at least breaks even. I think that this proposal will go down as the biggest much ado about nothing in sports history. At most, it will encourage some programs that do not draw well at the gate to drop to the FCS and discourage some programs from making the jump to the FBS.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Now is The Time...For Air Force Independence
There is a change coming in College Football and people are beginning to take notice. There is one college here in the west that needs to avoid being dragged down in the shuffle, the United States Air Force Academy.
For those of you unfamiliar with the proposal, it is that colleges pay for the full cost of education, where now they only pay for tuition, room and board and books. The full cost of education includes expenses like laundry and transportation. It is set by the Federal Government for determining the limits to how much students can borrow. Because of Title IX, this will apply to all sports that are sponsored by a school, not just football.
The smaller conferences, WAC, MAC, C-USA, Mountain West and Sun Belt do not have large enough TV money to meet these expenses. And there is only so much that student fees can cover. The Service Academies have an advantage. Right now, they are the only schools that cover the full cost of attendance. But the price is a four-year commitment to the Armed Forces. It is also paid for by the tax-payers of the United States. Which brings me back to why Air Force should go independent.
The service academies probably do not need extra-mural sports teams. Their cost of operation is entirely paid for by Congress. They do not need to bring in additional money. All students; excuse me; cadets and midshipmen are all in very good shape to begin with. (I've seen them train in person, it looks grueling.) The service academies would do well enough just playing each other. The reason the service academies sponsor extra mural sports is for national exposure.
The academies need to play as broad of a schedule as they can, and need to play teams from all over the country. It is a chance for those interested in attending the academies to meet with those who already attend school and find out how committed they are in attending. It is important for the military, all branches, to have as diverse of an officer pool as possible. It helps build respect. The sports programs at the service academies offer a chance not just to recruit officers, but to recruit new soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines.
With the potential changes coming in college sports...and the new division would be for all sports, not only football...Air Force can not afford to be left in the lower division. It has the potential to rob, not just the school, but the entire Air Force, of quality recruits. Air Force needs to move now to not be left behind.
Conferences
BCS Subdivision:
ACC
Big 10
Big 12
Big East
PAC 12
SEC
Independents: Air Force, Army, Brigham Young, Notre Dame, Navy
For those of you unfamiliar with the proposal, it is that colleges pay for the full cost of education, where now they only pay for tuition, room and board and books. The full cost of education includes expenses like laundry and transportation. It is set by the Federal Government for determining the limits to how much students can borrow. Because of Title IX, this will apply to all sports that are sponsored by a school, not just football.
The smaller conferences, WAC, MAC, C-USA, Mountain West and Sun Belt do not have large enough TV money to meet these expenses. And there is only so much that student fees can cover. The Service Academies have an advantage. Right now, they are the only schools that cover the full cost of attendance. But the price is a four-year commitment to the Armed Forces. It is also paid for by the tax-payers of the United States. Which brings me back to why Air Force should go independent.
The service academies probably do not need extra-mural sports teams. Their cost of operation is entirely paid for by Congress. They do not need to bring in additional money. All students; excuse me; cadets and midshipmen are all in very good shape to begin with. (I've seen them train in person, it looks grueling.) The service academies would do well enough just playing each other. The reason the service academies sponsor extra mural sports is for national exposure.
The academies need to play as broad of a schedule as they can, and need to play teams from all over the country. It is a chance for those interested in attending the academies to meet with those who already attend school and find out how committed they are in attending. It is important for the military, all branches, to have as diverse of an officer pool as possible. It helps build respect. The sports programs at the service academies offer a chance not just to recruit officers, but to recruit new soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines.
With the potential changes coming in college sports...and the new division would be for all sports, not only football...Air Force can not afford to be left in the lower division. It has the potential to rob, not just the school, but the entire Air Force, of quality recruits. Air Force needs to move now to not be left behind.
Conferences
BCS Subdivision:
ACC
Big 10
Big 12
Big East
PAC 12
SEC
Independents: Air Force, Army, Brigham Young, Notre Dame, Navy
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Big East Expansion/Split Update...
Updated June 6, 2011
This site
http://no2minutewarning.com/2011/05/25/podcast-episode-052-big-east-split-on-horizon/
Links to this site
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=ycn-8523309
Links to this site
But there is tons of twitter traffic about the Big East right now.
Confirms the following...
The Big East is looking at expanding to 12 in football and waiting for what Villanova decides. Houston and Central Florida will be the other 2 members if 'Nova Says yes. Otherwise, it is uncertain if they will remain at 9 or move to 12. Without Villanova, the 12th member could be East Carolina or SMU. That is what the coaches seem to prefer.
There is also talk of inviting Army and Navy. Nice idea, but it messes with one of the best traditions in college sports. The service academies, including Air Force need to be independent. They need to play a national schedule and have nation-wide exposure. The only reason for the service academies to have extra-mural sports is for recruiting and good will. If Army and Navy needed to be in a conference, they would still be in C-USA. Although money may be the deciding factor.
However, some people have recently floated the idea of adding Army and Navy as football only schools. This would not add to the strength of football play in the Big East...not in the slightest, but it would help avoid further basketball expansion and the weakening of the basketball program. Basketball coaches in the Big East do not seem to want to add weak basketball programs and suffer the same fate that the ACC has recently when the ACC could only place 4 teams into the NCAA men's basketball tournament. (Remember that the ACC passed over a strong traditional basketball program in West Virginia to get the better in football, bigger market Boston College.)
But if the Big East does split, it is my guess that the football side will keep the name Big East where the Basketball side will chose a new name. But also remember that this is all talk right now and that nothing has been decided. It is sometimes difficult to separate fiction from reality at this point of the game.
Big East Football Schools, with Villanova (My projection)
North Division
Syracuse
Cincinnati
Rutgers
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
U-Conn
South Division
Villanova (Or East Carolina)
Central Florida
South Florida
TCU
Houston
Louisville
Basketball Conference
St. Johns
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Marquette
Seton Hall
Providence
DePaul
(Villanova)
BYU fans might notice a similarity between the basketball-only members of the Big East and the West Coast Conference...all are private, religious-based schools. In fact, I believe that they are all Catholic schools.
Let me also add that I see no panic among C-USA fans when I look on the message boards and on twitter. C-USA may be content to remain at 9 or 10.
This site
http://no2minutewarning.com/2011/05/25/podcast-episode-052-big-east-split-on-horizon/
Links to this site
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=ycn-8523309
Links to this site
But there is tons of twitter traffic about the Big East right now.
Confirms the following...
The Big East is looking at expanding to 12 in football and waiting for what Villanova decides. Houston and Central Florida will be the other 2 members if 'Nova Says yes. Otherwise, it is uncertain if they will remain at 9 or move to 12. Without Villanova, the 12th member could be East Carolina or SMU. That is what the coaches seem to prefer.
There is also talk of inviting Army and Navy. Nice idea, but it messes with one of the best traditions in college sports. The service academies, including Air Force need to be independent. They need to play a national schedule and have nation-wide exposure. The only reason for the service academies to have extra-mural sports is for recruiting and good will. If Army and Navy needed to be in a conference, they would still be in C-USA. Although money may be the deciding factor.
However, some people have recently floated the idea of adding Army and Navy as football only schools. This would not add to the strength of football play in the Big East...not in the slightest, but it would help avoid further basketball expansion and the weakening of the basketball program. Basketball coaches in the Big East do not seem to want to add weak basketball programs and suffer the same fate that the ACC has recently when the ACC could only place 4 teams into the NCAA men's basketball tournament. (Remember that the ACC passed over a strong traditional basketball program in West Virginia to get the better in football, bigger market Boston College.)
But if the Big East does split, it is my guess that the football side will keep the name Big East where the Basketball side will chose a new name. But also remember that this is all talk right now and that nothing has been decided. It is sometimes difficult to separate fiction from reality at this point of the game.
Big East Football Schools, with Villanova (My projection)
North Division
Syracuse
Cincinnati
Rutgers
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
U-Conn
South Division
Villanova (Or East Carolina)
Central Florida
South Florida
TCU
Houston
Louisville
Basketball Conference
St. Johns
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Marquette
Seton Hall
Providence
DePaul
(Villanova)
BYU fans might notice a similarity between the basketball-only members of the Big East and the West Coast Conference...all are private, religious-based schools. In fact, I believe that they are all Catholic schools.
Let me also add that I see no panic among C-USA fans when I look on the message boards and on twitter. C-USA may be content to remain at 9 or 10.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Full Cost Scholarship, the Biggest Threat to College Sports as We Now Know It
According to the San Jose Mercury News, the Big 10 is studying a proposal to up football scholarships from their current level to cover the full cost of attendance. Now, athletic scholarships cover tuition, room and board and books. They do not cover other day-to-day living expenses such as clothing, laundry and transportation. The Ohio State proposal would change all of that.
The full cost of attendance is determined by the Federal Government for the purposes of obtaining Title IV financial aid and is not set by the school at all. Therefore, one should not be able to justify giving these kids a Corvette. But still, more money opens up more potential for abuse. Where schools like Ohio State believe that it will have the opposite affect. There is also the debate about whether this is pay for college athletics, but I do not believe that it is.
The effects would reach beyond the potential for additional NCAA violations. Schools with big TV contracts would have little problem in coming up with the money to pay for all of this, others would be sunk by this proposal. The reason, Title IX would require that this aid be given to all student athletes, male and female. This would cost most Division I FBS schools an additional million dollars or more per year. Most non-BCS schools do not have that kind of money.
According to the Mercury News article, only the current Automatic Qualifying schools would be able to afford this proposal, if you believe that this money comes from TV contracts. I am certain that not all the BCS schools can afford this additional expense, as some of them are struggling even with all of the big money coming in. The only non-Automatic Schools that would likely be able to meet this expense are BYU and the three service academies. BYU's football contract is worth a minimum of 3 million, but will pay more than that most seasons. The service academies already meet the full cost of attendance for their students, but it comes at the cost of a four year commitment to the Armed Forces.
Those not able to commit all of these funds would drop sponsoring sports. This would force nearly all of the non-Automatic Qualifying Schools to either drop to the Football Championship Subdivision, or perhaps create a new football subdivision. Either way, these schools get the playoff that they desire. The BCS Automatic Qualifying Schools would be able to keep their bowls...albeit much fewer than we have now. This would render the actions being taken by Utah Attorney General and the Justice Department moot.
It would not be all bad. I believe that if there was a middle football subdivision created that the Big Sky and the Colonial Conferences would be invited to join the new division. But the interest in schools in the MWC, C-USA, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt will wane and their attendance will dwindle. This will not only affect Football, but Men's Basketball as well...also changing March Madness forever. Of course when it comes to money, the BCS schools have proven that no tradition is too great to sacrifice.
The full cost of attendance is determined by the Federal Government for the purposes of obtaining Title IV financial aid and is not set by the school at all. Therefore, one should not be able to justify giving these kids a Corvette. But still, more money opens up more potential for abuse. Where schools like Ohio State believe that it will have the opposite affect. There is also the debate about whether this is pay for college athletics, but I do not believe that it is.
The effects would reach beyond the potential for additional NCAA violations. Schools with big TV contracts would have little problem in coming up with the money to pay for all of this, others would be sunk by this proposal. The reason, Title IX would require that this aid be given to all student athletes, male and female. This would cost most Division I FBS schools an additional million dollars or more per year. Most non-BCS schools do not have that kind of money.
According to the Mercury News article, only the current Automatic Qualifying schools would be able to afford this proposal, if you believe that this money comes from TV contracts. I am certain that not all the BCS schools can afford this additional expense, as some of them are struggling even with all of the big money coming in. The only non-Automatic Schools that would likely be able to meet this expense are BYU and the three service academies. BYU's football contract is worth a minimum of 3 million, but will pay more than that most seasons. The service academies already meet the full cost of attendance for their students, but it comes at the cost of a four year commitment to the Armed Forces.
Those not able to commit all of these funds would drop sponsoring sports. This would force nearly all of the non-Automatic Qualifying Schools to either drop to the Football Championship Subdivision, or perhaps create a new football subdivision. Either way, these schools get the playoff that they desire. The BCS Automatic Qualifying Schools would be able to keep their bowls...albeit much fewer than we have now. This would render the actions being taken by Utah Attorney General and the Justice Department moot.
It would not be all bad. I believe that if there was a middle football subdivision created that the Big Sky and the Colonial Conferences would be invited to join the new division. But the interest in schools in the MWC, C-USA, WAC, MAC and Sun Belt will wane and their attendance will dwindle. This will not only affect Football, but Men's Basketball as well...also changing March Madness forever. Of course when it comes to money, the BCS schools have proven that no tradition is too great to sacrifice.
The Real Reason the MWC does not want to schedule BYU.
In Bronco Mendenhall's first season as BYU head coach, the Cougars lost their first two conference games. A home overtime loss to TCU and then an embarrassing 31-10 loss at San Diego State. Since then, TCU and Utah and Air Force are the only teams in conference play to have beaten BYU. Arguably, 2010 was the worst BYU team since Gary Crowton was replaced as BYU's head coach. BYU still went a respectable 5-3 in conference play. Against the Mountain West 2012 lineup, BYU is 34-3 under Mendenhall, with the a fore mentioned losses to the Aztecs and Falcons and a 2010 loss to Nevada. Bronco Mendenhall, as BYU's head coach, has never lost to Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico nor Wyoming. He is 0-1 against Nevada and has not yet played Boise State, Fresno State nor Hawaii. (BYU visits Hawaii at the end of this coming season, and plays at Boise State next season.)
Why is this not good for the Mountain West? They are trying to get BCS automatic qualifying status, and the one area that is holding the conference back is average computer ranking for all teams in the conference. Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico and Wyoming, the schools that have never beaten Bronco Mendenhall, are holding the conference back. It is probably best for the Mountain West that these schools avoid playing other schools that they have a bad history against for the next 4 or 5 seasons. Although, MWC BCS Automatic Qualifying status takes a huge hit with the loss of TCU, Utah and BYU. If this is not granted to the conference after the end of the 2012 season, their hope, as was the case with the WAC, is the continued success of Boise State. And the hope that the bottom feeders in the conference do not continue to drag down the conference. One way they can do that is to continue to be mad at BYU for bailing out and becoming independent. I would expect, however, to see UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State on BYU's schedule after 2016 after the hopes for the MWC are either realized or dashed for good. Or possibly after the BCS is dumped for a real playoff.
Bronco's MWC record:
Air Force 5-1
Colorado State 6-0
New Mexico 6-0
San Diego State 5-1
TCU 2-4
Utah 3-3
UNLV 6-0
Wyoming 6-0
Future MWC Teams
Nevada 0-1
Has not played Boise State, Fresno State or Hawaii
Why is this not good for the Mountain West? They are trying to get BCS automatic qualifying status, and the one area that is holding the conference back is average computer ranking for all teams in the conference. Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico and Wyoming, the schools that have never beaten Bronco Mendenhall, are holding the conference back. It is probably best for the Mountain West that these schools avoid playing other schools that they have a bad history against for the next 4 or 5 seasons. Although, MWC BCS Automatic Qualifying status takes a huge hit with the loss of TCU, Utah and BYU. If this is not granted to the conference after the end of the 2012 season, their hope, as was the case with the WAC, is the continued success of Boise State. And the hope that the bottom feeders in the conference do not continue to drag down the conference. One way they can do that is to continue to be mad at BYU for bailing out and becoming independent. I would expect, however, to see UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State on BYU's schedule after 2016 after the hopes for the MWC are either realized or dashed for good. Or possibly after the BCS is dumped for a real playoff.
Bronco's MWC record:
Air Force 5-1
Colorado State 6-0
New Mexico 6-0
San Diego State 5-1
TCU 2-4
Utah 3-3
UNLV 6-0
Wyoming 6-0
Future MWC Teams
Nevada 0-1
Has not played Boise State, Fresno State or Hawaii
Conference USA Expansion
Let me say from the start, I know of no rumors of expansion from Conference USA, expect they may be looking for replacements if they are raided by the Big East or other conferences. Should Villanova not decide to upgrade the the FBS the way that U-Conn did a few years ago, then C-USA may lose as many as three programs. The Big 12 may also be looking to get back to 12. Central Florida, Houston, East Carolina, SMU, Memphis and Tulsa may be Big East or Big 12 candidates. They may also have to deal with Tulane dropping football. Here is a look at who they could consider:
From the Sun Belt
North Texas -- The Mean Green is another program that is a shadow of their former glory, and seem to have languished in the current incarnation of the Sun Belt conference. They have rebuffed the WAC several times, however. Seems like they are hoping for C-USA to make the call. The North Texas Market may be perfect for C-USA, but they already have SMU. This would really would not be an expansion, but further extension into a market that the Big 12 already owns and will for the foreseeable future.
FAU/FIU -- Should C-USA lose Central Florida, either of these programs would help the conference keep a foothold in the Sunshine State. It is a rich recruiting field for many football programs. However, this is another market that is dominated by programs from bigger conferences, namely Miami and South Florida, and usually both FAU and FIU are on ESPN's Bottom 10 list. FIU had a winning record in 2010, won the Sun Belt Championship and the Little Ceasar's Bowl.
Middle Tennessee--The Conference already has Memphis and inviting another program from the Volunteer State, seems logical. This school is in the Nashville suburb of Murpheesburough. Meaning that their main competition is Vanderbilt. The Commodores do not cast a big shadow, even if they are in the SEC. Since moving up from the FCS in 2000, the Blue Raiders have been consistent winners, but lost last year in the GoDaddy.com bowl.
Troy--Even though they are new to Division I sports, Troy has had some success in recent years with wins over Mississippi and Missouri. It gives C-USA a rival to mainstay UAB. Troy is in rural southeast Alabama and not exactly a big market program.
From the WAC
Louisiana Tech--Since the WAC has been put on life support by last summer's conference realignment, no one has more publicly wanted a new conference outside of LT. C-USA does not have a school in football friendly Louisiana. Getting to Rushton from anywhere may be the biggest draw-back.
UTSA--Those looking for the next Boise State are looking at for the Roadrunners to prove it can be done again. They are in football-friendly San Antonio, will play in the Alamodome and have a well seasoned head coach at the helm. If I was a member of the Conference USA board of directors, I would be looking hard at this school should I need a replacement.
New Mexico State--If the WAC stops sponsoring football, then the Las Cruces school will be looking for a new conference. There are some negatives in adding the Aggies, however. First, the football program has never been spectacular. They have very few winning seasons and bowl appearances to boast about. Second is that their academics are not exactly stellar. They are in a size-able market, they get a lot of recruits from Southwest Texas and they make a good travel partner for UTEP.
From the FCS
Appalachian State--It was not a fluke that this program took it to Michigan a few years ago. This is really a quality program that is good year in and year out. They are well set up to repeat this success in the FBS.
Georgia Southern--This is another FCS program the is set up to succeed at the next level. Football-friendly Georgia only has two FBS programs at this time and there is plenty of room for another.
Missouri State--This is another FCS program that may be looking for an upgrade, according to the comment of one reader--Thank You, BTW. They are located in the Central Missouri hamlet of Springfield, they are closer to Kansas City than St. Louis. They have facilities that are ready from an upgrade. The football stadium holds 16,000 and they boast a new basketball arena.
May 29, update:
I have spent a lot of time looking at tweets and other comments all over the web for what Conference USA might do. They seem to be working in the background, examining their options. But there is no panic. This is not the WAC. There are plenty of options in the C-USA footprint. Another option for C-USA, should they fall to 9 members is to remain at 9 members and wait for the dust of conference expansion and realignment to clear or remain permanently at 9. They would lose the revenue of the conference championship game, but there would be fewer slices of the pie to share and the revenue per school might increase. The conference just signed a new TV deal with fox that is worth 14 million per season, or 1.16 million per year per school and it is not public what effect a the loss of the conference championship game would do to that total.
Certainly, C-USA will look at what markets potential new members would add. Based upon this, I would have to believe that UTSA, Middle Tennessee and probably one of the Florida schools would be the leading candidates to join Conference USA should they need replacements.
September 8, 2011 Update.
Texas A&M is trying to go to the SEC. If the Big 12 does break up, you can add Baylor and Iowa State as C-USA potential members. If the Big 12 breaks up, whose to say that C-USA won't go to 16 either.
September 22, 2011 Update.
With the PAC-12 refusing to add members at this time, it appears that the Big 12 will stay together. With Pitt and 'Cuse leaving the Big East, it looks as if C-USA will lose some members. SMU, Houston, East Carolina, Central Florida and Southern Mississippi are considered potential members for either the Big 12 or Big East. The key will be what TCU does at this point. The Big East could add SMU in an effort to keep TCU from joining the Big 12. If this happens, Houston could end up in the Big 12. ECU, UCF and Southern Miss could also join the Big East along with Temple from the MAC. C-USA could now lose as many as 5. Good news is that they have choices to replace those they lose.
Who C-USA adds should depend on who they lose. Let's say they suffer the worst-case scenario, which is Houston to the Big 12 with SMU, ECU, UCF, and Southern Miss to the Big East, then I would chose North Texas, UTSA, Middle Tennessee, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern.
September 24, 2011 Update
East Carolina is the reportedly the first C-USA program to leave for the Big East. They have formally applied for Big East Membership.
November 1, 2011 Update
It appears that C-USA will at least lose Houston, SMU and UCF to the Big East. Who tops the list for replacement? The MWC/C-USA merger will no doubt be weakened if C-USA does not make a move for replacements. But in retrospect, it may be part of the plan of both conferences to avoid going into divisions. 9 is a good size for division-less college sports. But no Houston, SMU or Boise--the football merger plan is weak.
Here are some interesting article about Conference USA and their revenue picture:
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2011-01-05/sports/os-conference-usa-fox-tv-deal-20110105_1_cbs-college-sports-secondary-agreement-fox-sports-florida
http://businessofcollegesports.com/category/conference-finance-series/
From the Sun Belt
North Texas -- The Mean Green is another program that is a shadow of their former glory, and seem to have languished in the current incarnation of the Sun Belt conference. They have rebuffed the WAC several times, however. Seems like they are hoping for C-USA to make the call. The North Texas Market may be perfect for C-USA, but they already have SMU. This would really would not be an expansion, but further extension into a market that the Big 12 already owns and will for the foreseeable future.
FAU/FIU -- Should C-USA lose Central Florida, either of these programs would help the conference keep a foothold in the Sunshine State. It is a rich recruiting field for many football programs. However, this is another market that is dominated by programs from bigger conferences, namely Miami and South Florida, and usually both FAU and FIU are on ESPN's Bottom 10 list. FIU had a winning record in 2010, won the Sun Belt Championship and the Little Ceasar's Bowl.
Middle Tennessee--The Conference already has Memphis and inviting another program from the Volunteer State, seems logical. This school is in the Nashville suburb of Murpheesburough. Meaning that their main competition is Vanderbilt. The Commodores do not cast a big shadow, even if they are in the SEC. Since moving up from the FCS in 2000, the Blue Raiders have been consistent winners, but lost last year in the GoDaddy.com bowl.
Troy--Even though they are new to Division I sports, Troy has had some success in recent years with wins over Mississippi and Missouri. It gives C-USA a rival to mainstay UAB. Troy is in rural southeast Alabama and not exactly a big market program.
From the WAC
Louisiana Tech--Since the WAC has been put on life support by last summer's conference realignment, no one has more publicly wanted a new conference outside of LT. C-USA does not have a school in football friendly Louisiana. Getting to Rushton from anywhere may be the biggest draw-back.
UTSA--Those looking for the next Boise State are looking at for the Roadrunners to prove it can be done again. They are in football-friendly San Antonio, will play in the Alamodome and have a well seasoned head coach at the helm. If I was a member of the Conference USA board of directors, I would be looking hard at this school should I need a replacement.
New Mexico State--If the WAC stops sponsoring football, then the Las Cruces school will be looking for a new conference. There are some negatives in adding the Aggies, however. First, the football program has never been spectacular. They have very few winning seasons and bowl appearances to boast about. Second is that their academics are not exactly stellar. They are in a size-able market, they get a lot of recruits from Southwest Texas and they make a good travel partner for UTEP.
From the FCS
Appalachian State--It was not a fluke that this program took it to Michigan a few years ago. This is really a quality program that is good year in and year out. They are well set up to repeat this success in the FBS.
Georgia Southern--This is another FCS program the is set up to succeed at the next level. Football-friendly Georgia only has two FBS programs at this time and there is plenty of room for another.
Missouri State--This is another FCS program that may be looking for an upgrade, according to the comment of one reader--Thank You, BTW. They are located in the Central Missouri hamlet of Springfield, they are closer to Kansas City than St. Louis. They have facilities that are ready from an upgrade. The football stadium holds 16,000 and they boast a new basketball arena.
May 29, update:
I have spent a lot of time looking at tweets and other comments all over the web for what Conference USA might do. They seem to be working in the background, examining their options. But there is no panic. This is not the WAC. There are plenty of options in the C-USA footprint. Another option for C-USA, should they fall to 9 members is to remain at 9 members and wait for the dust of conference expansion and realignment to clear or remain permanently at 9. They would lose the revenue of the conference championship game, but there would be fewer slices of the pie to share and the revenue per school might increase. The conference just signed a new TV deal with fox that is worth 14 million per season, or 1.16 million per year per school and it is not public what effect a the loss of the conference championship game would do to that total.
Certainly, C-USA will look at what markets potential new members would add. Based upon this, I would have to believe that UTSA, Middle Tennessee and probably one of the Florida schools would be the leading candidates to join Conference USA should they need replacements.
September 8, 2011 Update.
Texas A&M is trying to go to the SEC. If the Big 12 does break up, you can add Baylor and Iowa State as C-USA potential members. If the Big 12 breaks up, whose to say that C-USA won't go to 16 either.
September 22, 2011 Update.
With the PAC-12 refusing to add members at this time, it appears that the Big 12 will stay together. With Pitt and 'Cuse leaving the Big East, it looks as if C-USA will lose some members. SMU, Houston, East Carolina, Central Florida and Southern Mississippi are considered potential members for either the Big 12 or Big East. The key will be what TCU does at this point. The Big East could add SMU in an effort to keep TCU from joining the Big 12. If this happens, Houston could end up in the Big 12. ECU, UCF and Southern Miss could also join the Big East along with Temple from the MAC. C-USA could now lose as many as 5. Good news is that they have choices to replace those they lose.
Who C-USA adds should depend on who they lose. Let's say they suffer the worst-case scenario, which is Houston to the Big 12 with SMU, ECU, UCF, and Southern Miss to the Big East, then I would chose North Texas, UTSA, Middle Tennessee, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern.
September 24, 2011 Update
East Carolina is the reportedly the first C-USA program to leave for the Big East. They have formally applied for Big East Membership.
November 1, 2011 Update
It appears that C-USA will at least lose Houston, SMU and UCF to the Big East. Who tops the list for replacement? The MWC/C-USA merger will no doubt be weakened if C-USA does not make a move for replacements. But in retrospect, it may be part of the plan of both conferences to avoid going into divisions. 9 is a good size for division-less college sports. But no Houston, SMU or Boise--the football merger plan is weak.
Here are some interesting article about Conference USA and their revenue picture:
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2011-01-05/sports/os-conference-usa-fox-tv-deal-20110105_1_cbs-college-sports-secondary-agreement-fox-sports-florida
http://businessofcollegesports.com/category/conference-finance-series/
Sunday, May 22, 2011
BYU and Hawaii...A Rivalry Renewed.
The University of Hawaii has announced that the Cougars and Warriors will meet on the Gridiron every season through 2020. Except, they may take a break from 2014 and 2016 depending on whether the MWC has an 8-game conference schedule or a 9-game conference schedule. In the case of the latter, Hawaii already has a full slate in those seasons. The contract also states that they will prefer to meet at the end of the season, as in 2011, if the MWC allows.
If they meet every season, here is how the schedule will look.
2011--December 13--@Hawaii
2012--September 9--@BYU
2013--September 14?--@Hawaii
2014--@BYU...or no game
2015--@Hawaii..@BYU if not played in 2014/2016
2016--@BYU...or no game
2017--@Hawaii
2018--@BYU
2019--@Hawaii
2020--@BYU
If they meet every season, here is how the schedule will look.
2011--December 13--@Hawaii
2012--September 9--@BYU
2013--September 14?--@Hawaii
2014--@BYU...or no game
2015--@Hawaii..@BYU if not played in 2014/2016
2016--@BYU...or no game
2017--@Hawaii
2018--@BYU
2019--@Hawaii
2020--@BYU
Monday, May 16, 2011
Busting the BCS...The 2010 Playoff Race
I will examine the College Football Playoffs had there been no BCS. In 2010, the FCS played a 20-team playoff. 4 Play-in games in the first to eliminate the field to 16. Eventually, the NCAA could play a 32 team play off. Ten Bowls would have been eliminated to make way for the playoffs: Humanitarian, New Mexico, Armed Forces, New Orleans, Beef O' Brady's, Little Caesars (Detroit), Military, Pinstripe, Ticket City and Compass.
The Automatic Bids
ACC-Virginia Tech
Big 12--Oklahoma
Big East--Connecticut
Big 10--Wisconsin
Conference USA--Central Florida
Mid America--Miami (Ohio)
Mountain West--Texas Christian
Pacific 10--Oregon
Southeastern--Auburn
Sun Belt--Florida International
Western Athletic--Nevada
Seedings
1. Auburn (SEC)
2. Oregon (PAC-10)
3. Texas Christian (MWC)
4. Stanford*
5. Wisconsin (Big 10)
6. Ohio State*
7. Oklahoma (Big 12)
8. Arkansas*
9. Michigan State*
10. Boise State*
11. Louisiana State*
12. Missouri*
13. Virginia Tech (ACC)
14. Oklahoma State*
15. Alabama*
16. Nevada (WAC)
17. Central Florida (C-USA)
18. Connecticut (Big East)
19. Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
20. Florida International (Sun Belt)
First Round Games (Saturday, December 11)
Game 1
FIU at Virginia Tech
Game 2
Miami (OH) at Oklahoma State
Game 3
UConn at Alabama
Game 4
UCF at Nevada
Second Round Games (Saturday, December 18)
Game 4 Winner at 1. Auburn
9. Michigan State at 8. Arkansas
Game 1 Winner at 4. Stanford
12. Missouri at 5. Wisconsin
Game 2 Winner at 3. Texas Christian
11. LSU at 6. Ohio State
Game 3 Winner at 2. Oregon
10. Boise State at 7. Oklahoma
Third Round Games (Round of 8) (Friday, December 24)
Semi-finals Saturday, January 1, 2011--See Below
Championship Game: Saturday, January 8, 2011: Glendale, Arizona
Bowls
Sugar Bowl
Semi-Final Game 1
Rose Bowl
Semi-Final Game 2
Orange Bowl
Florida State vs West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska vs Utah
Cotton Bowl
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M
And so on...
The Automatic Bids
ACC-Virginia Tech
Big 12--Oklahoma
Big East--Connecticut
Big 10--Wisconsin
Conference USA--Central Florida
Mid America--Miami (Ohio)
Mountain West--Texas Christian
Pacific 10--Oregon
Southeastern--Auburn
Sun Belt--Florida International
Western Athletic--Nevada
Seedings
1. Auburn (SEC)
2. Oregon (PAC-10)
3. Texas Christian (MWC)
4. Stanford*
5. Wisconsin (Big 10)
6. Ohio State*
7. Oklahoma (Big 12)
8. Arkansas*
9. Michigan State*
10. Boise State*
11. Louisiana State*
12. Missouri*
13. Virginia Tech (ACC)
14. Oklahoma State*
15. Alabama*
16. Nevada (WAC)
17. Central Florida (C-USA)
18. Connecticut (Big East)
19. Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
20. Florida International (Sun Belt)
First Round Games (Saturday, December 11)
Game 1
FIU at Virginia Tech
Game 2
Miami (OH) at Oklahoma State
Game 3
UConn at Alabama
Game 4
UCF at Nevada
Second Round Games (Saturday, December 18)
Game 4 Winner at 1. Auburn
9. Michigan State at 8. Arkansas
Game 1 Winner at 4. Stanford
12. Missouri at 5. Wisconsin
Game 2 Winner at 3. Texas Christian
11. LSU at 6. Ohio State
Game 3 Winner at 2. Oregon
10. Boise State at 7. Oklahoma
Third Round Games (Round of 8) (Friday, December 24)
Semi-finals Saturday, January 1, 2011--See Below
Championship Game: Saturday, January 8, 2011: Glendale, Arizona
Bowls
Sugar Bowl
Semi-Final Game 1
Rose Bowl
Semi-Final Game 2
Orange Bowl
Florida State vs West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska vs Utah
Cotton Bowl
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M
And so on...
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Serious Conference Expansion Rumors...Serious
This is serious talk, avoiding all the wild speculation that I can find, on where conferences will go with their next expansion.
Big 10--I can find nothing current on future Big 10 expansion talk, other than the usual...Notre Dame. But I find one writers take on what it would take to get Notre Dame into a conference...
1. Notre Dame would keep their exclusive TV contract with NBC.
2. Notre Dame would play only 6 conference games, allowing them to play 6 non-conference games.
3. Notre Dame would get the Big 10's slot in the BCS if they are the top team in the conference, meaning they get to go to the Rose Bowl.
4. Notre Dame gets to keep their November date with USC.
My take is that Notre Dame will never be in the Big 10. But someone once told me the same about Nebraska about 15 years ago. Times may changes.
SEC--Back in January there was some talk of getting Texas A&M and Oklahoma...but only if the SEC's spot as the top conference in the USA was threatened.
Conclusion: Do not expect Big 10 expansion at this time.
ACC--I can not find any serious talk of ACC expansion at this time. If the ACC does expand, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Rutgers would be the leading candidates.
Conclusion: No ACC expansion at this time.
Big 12--It is said that eventually, the Big 12 will be back to 12. Arkansas is who they want. One ESPN blogger says that they should go after Arizona State and Arizona. If they succeed, then we will see that the PAC-12 expansion was a failure. Realistically; BYU, Boise State, UNLV, Memphis and Louisville are the best options.
Conclusion: As much at the Big 12 would like to get back to 12 and have a conference championship game, they are not willing to give up what it would take to get any of the above expansion candidates into the fold. Unless Arkansas is willing, nothing will happen right now.
PAC-12--If Boise State does not get a Big 12 invite, then look for Boise State and UNLV to be the next teams in the PAC-12...and that will happen in...20-30 years.
Conclusion: The PAC 12 is not interested in expansion at this time unless someone really big wants to join.
Big East--The Big East is likely the next conference that will expand. They too would like Notre Dame...as if. Others link them with Kansas and Missouri. More likely we will see them invite Central Florida, Houston and maybe East Carolina. Villanova may accept an invite to join them for football, but some are saying that PPL Park, home of the MLS Union, where Villanova will play is too small and want to see the stadium expanded to over 30,000.
Conclusion: The Big East is trying to ensure that they remain a relevant football conference. That is why TCU was brought into the fold...it brought their program up and weakens the competition. They would like a championship game, but only if the right programs will join.
C-USA--No plans for expansion, but will need to replace Central Florida, Houston or perhaps East Carolina if that is the way that the Big East goes. Louisiana Tech wants it, but they do not offer much. If I was C-USA, I would add North Texas, Middle Tennessee State, Troy and if they decide to move to the FBS, Appalachian State.
Conclusion: Conference USA may need to look for replacements.
MWC--No plans to go to 12 at this time. One blogger suggested Gonzaga as a basketball-only school. That would be the ultimate middle finger to now-departed BYU, but otherwise does nothing to help the MWC get what they really desire...which is inclusion in the BCS.
Conclusion: The MWC wants to go to 12, but there are no good options for them until Utah State can prove that they can win in football. They want someone who can help them become BCS Automatic Qualified.
WAC--The WAC will announce plans to expand next month. Rumor is that Montana, Montana State, Portland Sate and Cal Poly have already received invitations, but they would not join until 2013 or 2014. As long as they have no more than one new defection, they will survive. Two or more leave, say goodbye. The WAC will likely invite Seattle (basketball-only) to avoid losing the automatic NCAA tournament bid. I have more to say here.
Conclusion: The WAC does not want to become the Sun Belt of the West, but that is the role they have been relegated to. May as well embrace it.
MAC--Has just announced plans to go to 14 teams with the inclusion of U-Mass. They could be looking to go to 16. They stand ready to accept anyone from the CAA; like Richmond, William and Mary, James Madison and New Hampshire...or other schools form their footprint. They should be ready to accept Villanova should the Big East back down.
Conclusion: The MAC is surviving by being the place where programs upgrading from the FCS in the north and east find a home.
Sun Belt--Just accepted South Alabama and should be ready to take on Georgia Southern, James Madison, Georgia State and Appalachian State should they want to move up to the FBS as well. Jacksonville State is moving up and needs a home. They will provide a home to Lamar should the WAC not invite the Cardinals.
Conclusion: Football programs in the Southeast need a place to move up to, and the Sun Belt has been willing to accept them.
Big 10--I can find nothing current on future Big 10 expansion talk, other than the usual...Notre Dame. But I find one writers take on what it would take to get Notre Dame into a conference...
1. Notre Dame would keep their exclusive TV contract with NBC.
2. Notre Dame would play only 6 conference games, allowing them to play 6 non-conference games.
3. Notre Dame would get the Big 10's slot in the BCS if they are the top team in the conference, meaning they get to go to the Rose Bowl.
4. Notre Dame gets to keep their November date with USC.
My take is that Notre Dame will never be in the Big 10. But someone once told me the same about Nebraska about 15 years ago. Times may changes.
SEC--Back in January there was some talk of getting Texas A&M and Oklahoma...but only if the SEC's spot as the top conference in the USA was threatened.
Conclusion: Do not expect Big 10 expansion at this time.
ACC--I can not find any serious talk of ACC expansion at this time. If the ACC does expand, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Rutgers would be the leading candidates.
Conclusion: No ACC expansion at this time.
Big 12--It is said that eventually, the Big 12 will be back to 12. Arkansas is who they want. One ESPN blogger says that they should go after Arizona State and Arizona. If they succeed, then we will see that the PAC-12 expansion was a failure. Realistically; BYU, Boise State, UNLV, Memphis and Louisville are the best options.
Conclusion: As much at the Big 12 would like to get back to 12 and have a conference championship game, they are not willing to give up what it would take to get any of the above expansion candidates into the fold. Unless Arkansas is willing, nothing will happen right now.
PAC-12--If Boise State does not get a Big 12 invite, then look for Boise State and UNLV to be the next teams in the PAC-12...and that will happen in...20-30 years.
Conclusion: The PAC 12 is not interested in expansion at this time unless someone really big wants to join.
Big East--The Big East is likely the next conference that will expand. They too would like Notre Dame...as if. Others link them with Kansas and Missouri. More likely we will see them invite Central Florida, Houston and maybe East Carolina. Villanova may accept an invite to join them for football, but some are saying that PPL Park, home of the MLS Union, where Villanova will play is too small and want to see the stadium expanded to over 30,000.
Conclusion: The Big East is trying to ensure that they remain a relevant football conference. That is why TCU was brought into the fold...it brought their program up and weakens the competition. They would like a championship game, but only if the right programs will join.
C-USA--No plans for expansion, but will need to replace Central Florida, Houston or perhaps East Carolina if that is the way that the Big East goes. Louisiana Tech wants it, but they do not offer much. If I was C-USA, I would add North Texas, Middle Tennessee State, Troy and if they decide to move to the FBS, Appalachian State.
Conclusion: Conference USA may need to look for replacements.
MWC--No plans to go to 12 at this time. One blogger suggested Gonzaga as a basketball-only school. That would be the ultimate middle finger to now-departed BYU, but otherwise does nothing to help the MWC get what they really desire...which is inclusion in the BCS.
Conclusion: The MWC wants to go to 12, but there are no good options for them until Utah State can prove that they can win in football. They want someone who can help them become BCS Automatic Qualified.
WAC--The WAC will announce plans to expand next month. Rumor is that Montana, Montana State, Portland Sate and Cal Poly have already received invitations, but they would not join until 2013 or 2014. As long as they have no more than one new defection, they will survive. Two or more leave, say goodbye. The WAC will likely invite Seattle (basketball-only) to avoid losing the automatic NCAA tournament bid. I have more to say here.
Conclusion: The WAC does not want to become the Sun Belt of the West, but that is the role they have been relegated to. May as well embrace it.
MAC--Has just announced plans to go to 14 teams with the inclusion of U-Mass. They could be looking to go to 16. They stand ready to accept anyone from the CAA; like Richmond, William and Mary, James Madison and New Hampshire...or other schools form their footprint. They should be ready to accept Villanova should the Big East back down.
Conclusion: The MAC is surviving by being the place where programs upgrading from the FCS in the north and east find a home.
Sun Belt--Just accepted South Alabama and should be ready to take on Georgia Southern, James Madison, Georgia State and Appalachian State should they want to move up to the FBS as well. Jacksonville State is moving up and needs a home. They will provide a home to Lamar should the WAC not invite the Cardinals.
Conclusion: Football programs in the Southeast need a place to move up to, and the Sun Belt has been willing to accept them.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Who Every Conference Lusts After
After being criticized last week for being too speculative about potential SEC expansion...I've decided to go on a wild one and through caution to the wind.
Big 10
Current size: 12
Next Expansion 14
Who: Notre Dame, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse
Big East
Current Size: 9 (10 if Villanova accepts)--17 for basketball
Next Expansion 12/20
Who: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
SEC
Current Size: 12
Next Expansion: 14
Who: Texas, Texas A&M, or Oklahoma
ACC
Current Size:12
Next Expanion: 14
Who: West Virginia, Rutgers
Big 12
Current Size: 10
Next Expanion: 12
Who: BYU, Boise State, UNLV, Louisville, Memphis
PAC 12
Current Size: 12
Next Expansion: 14
Who: Oklahoma, Texas
MWC:
Current Size: 10
Next Expansion: 12
Who: Utah State, San Jose State
C-USA
Current Size: 12
Next Expansion: 14
Who: Louisiana Tech, UTSA
WAC
Current Size: 7/8
Next Expansion: 12/16
See Other Posts
Sun Belt
Current Size: 9
Next Expansion: 12
Who: Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, South Alabama
MAC
Current Size: 14
Next Expansion: 16
Who: Richmond, William and Mary
Who will become independent next:
Texas
Ohio State
Now nail me to the cross.
Big 10
Current size: 12
Next Expansion 14
Who: Notre Dame, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse
Big East
Current Size: 9 (10 if Villanova accepts)--17 for basketball
Next Expansion 12/20
Who: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
SEC
Current Size: 12
Next Expansion: 14
Who: Texas, Texas A&M, or Oklahoma
ACC
Current Size:12
Next Expanion: 14
Who: West Virginia, Rutgers
Big 12
Current Size: 10
Next Expanion: 12
Who: BYU, Boise State, UNLV, Louisville, Memphis
PAC 12
Current Size: 12
Next Expansion: 14
Who: Oklahoma, Texas
MWC:
Current Size: 10
Next Expansion: 12
Who: Utah State, San Jose State
C-USA
Current Size: 12
Next Expansion: 14
Who: Louisiana Tech, UTSA
WAC
Current Size: 7/8
Next Expansion: 12/16
See Other Posts
Sun Belt
Current Size: 9
Next Expansion: 12
Who: Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, South Alabama
MAC
Current Size: 14
Next Expansion: 16
Who: Richmond, William and Mary
Who will become independent next:
Texas
Ohio State
Now nail me to the cross.
No more anonymous comments, please
I have turned off anonymous commenting. But you can still post a comment with your Google ID or Open ID. I simply would like to know who is commenting on this blog and address my replies to that person by name.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
BYU's TV Games in 2011.
Updated June 3, 2011.
@ Ole Miss--ESPN
@ Texas--ESPN2
Utah--ESPN2
UCF--ESPN
USU--ESPN
San Jose State--ESPN Family--TBA
@ Oregon State--TBA*
Idaho State--BYU TV
@ TCU--ESPN
Idaho--ESPN Family--TBA
New Mexico State--ESPN Family TBA
@ Hawaii--ESPN
@ Ole Miss--ESPN
@ Texas--ESPN2
Utah--ESPN2
UCF--ESPN
USU--ESPN
San Jose State--ESPN Family--TBA
@ Oregon State--TBA*
Idaho State--BYU TV
@ TCU--ESPN
Idaho--ESPN Family--TBA
New Mexico State--ESPN Family TBA
@ Hawaii--ESPN
May 2011 WAC Expansion News...invitations extended!--Updated
I published this one by mistake, then updated it, then lost the updates in the Google maintenance debacle. Sorry.
According to a Boise radio station, KIDO, the WAC is going to announce expansion plans after the Presidents meet next month in Salt Lake. In the meantime, here is what has leaked...
According to a San Antonio newspaper, none of this will be happen in time for the 2012 season. Therefore, a lot could change. The only rock-solid thing I can find to expect from the meeting next month is that Seattle will be invited...basketball only. This invitation will ensure the WAC will keep their automatic NCAA bid. Other rumors are:
Open invitations have been extended to:
-Montana
-Montana State
-Portland State
-Cal Poly
These are open-ended and these schools can join any time between 2012 and 2014. (Because Cal Poly is the only school in this quartet without an FBS-sized stadium, they may be given longer.) Likely, the first three to take the conference up on the invitation will become part of the WAC where the 4th one will be left out. There are other schools in the west who could join, like UC Davis, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington and such.
There are three FCS schools in the southwest that will be invited if any/all of these schools refuse. (The fact that there are only three could imply that someone, either Cal Poly or Portland State will accept the WAC invite). These schools are unnamed, but implied to mean Lamar, Sam Houston State and perhaps Stephen F. Austin or Northeastern State. It could also mean Texas Arlington will bring back football with a WAC invitation.
However, the rumor is that the WAC wants at least one of the western schools to join or they will not expand at all. There could be one of the four western schools plus Lamar, Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin.
My gut feeling, and please do not crucify me for this as it is only my opinion, is that at least Portland State will accept. This campus is growing, the city is growing. PSU is a good fit for the WAC at this time, and the WAC is a good conference for PSU. They will have to bring back sports, like baseball, that have been terminated in recent years. Eventually, they will need a larger basketball arena, but they can still use either the Rose Garden or the Memorial Colosseum, if needed. This move is based upon the strength of the Portland market, which is partially untapped by the college sports world. Sure, there is the University of Portland from the WCC, but the nearest FBS program to Portland is 83 miles south.
Didn't Montana say no last fall, what changed? It also also my opinion that the way that the Big Sky decided to handle a 13-team conference, by not breaking into divisions but doing that funky rivalry/rotation schedule, weakens Montana's argument for remaining the the Big Sky. The loss of regular games against the other Big Sky Charter members, Weber State and Idaho State--essentially a loss in these nearly 50-year-old rivalries--weakens the Big Sky considerably. Montana can keep their rivalry with Montana State and renew their rivalry with Idaho. This is better than they will have in the Big Sky. The other thing that changed, no Hawaii...easier travel.
The only remaining hitch in this expansion plan is whether Cal Poly can get funds to expand their stadium. Before the conference expansion craziness from last fall began, Cal Poly was considered a shoe-in for WAC inclusion and all that remained was expanding the stadium. That story has not changed, even with the loss of Fresno State and Nevada to the Mountain West.
There are also some rumored basketball-only schools being rumored. However, the WAC seems to be pursuing a football expansion right now.
If the WAC athletic directors get their choice, here is how the WAC will look in 2014.
The WAC Football 12?:
Cal Poly
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
Lamar
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
Portland State
San Jose State
Texas State
UTSA
Utah State
Or, try this:
Northwest Division
Cal Poly
Idaho
Montana
Montana State
San Jose State
Utah State
+2 Basketball only schools:
Seattle
CS Bakersfield
Southwest Division
Louisiana Tech
Lamar
New Mexico State
Texas State
UTSA
Sam Houston State
+2 Basketball only schools:
Denver
UT Arlington
The Big Sky will be left with 9 football schools and 8 basketball schools. That is likely where the Big Sky conference will stay...ie not expand further, but likely is open to Central Washington or Dixie State should they want to move to Division I. But perhaps Fullerton and the remaining athletic directors will consider adding Seattle as a non-football school.
UC Davis (Football Only)
Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Weber State
Perhaps Portland State or Cal Poly will remain.
Source of my information: http://www.mwcconnection.com/2011/5/8/2160933/wac-to-announce-further-expansion
But I have not implied as much as these authors have. I have not been able to find the link on KIDO, however. My sources name KIDO as the source. The news on KIDO is that the Humanitarian Bowl is considering folding after this year's edition.
5/18 Update...According to the San Jose Mercury News, the WAC will add at least one Basketball only school immediately. The rest of the expansion will be invited for future expansion in the 2013-2014 time frame. It is getting a little late to have an FBS upgrade by 2012.
According to a Boise radio station, KIDO, the WAC is going to announce expansion plans after the Presidents meet next month in Salt Lake. In the meantime, here is what has leaked...
According to a San Antonio newspaper, none of this will be happen in time for the 2012 season. Therefore, a lot could change. The only rock-solid thing I can find to expect from the meeting next month is that Seattle will be invited...basketball only. This invitation will ensure the WAC will keep their automatic NCAA bid. Other rumors are:
Open invitations have been extended to:
-Montana
-Montana State
-Portland State
-Cal Poly
These are open-ended and these schools can join any time between 2012 and 2014. (Because Cal Poly is the only school in this quartet without an FBS-sized stadium, they may be given longer.) Likely, the first three to take the conference up on the invitation will become part of the WAC where the 4th one will be left out. There are other schools in the west who could join, like UC Davis, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington and such.
There are three FCS schools in the southwest that will be invited if any/all of these schools refuse. (The fact that there are only three could imply that someone, either Cal Poly or Portland State will accept the WAC invite). These schools are unnamed, but implied to mean Lamar, Sam Houston State and perhaps Stephen F. Austin or Northeastern State. It could also mean Texas Arlington will bring back football with a WAC invitation.
However, the rumor is that the WAC wants at least one of the western schools to join or they will not expand at all. There could be one of the four western schools plus Lamar, Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin.
My gut feeling, and please do not crucify me for this as it is only my opinion, is that at least Portland State will accept. This campus is growing, the city is growing. PSU is a good fit for the WAC at this time, and the WAC is a good conference for PSU. They will have to bring back sports, like baseball, that have been terminated in recent years. Eventually, they will need a larger basketball arena, but they can still use either the Rose Garden or the Memorial Colosseum, if needed. This move is based upon the strength of the Portland market, which is partially untapped by the college sports world. Sure, there is the University of Portland from the WCC, but the nearest FBS program to Portland is 83 miles south.
Didn't Montana say no last fall, what changed? It also also my opinion that the way that the Big Sky decided to handle a 13-team conference, by not breaking into divisions but doing that funky rivalry/rotation schedule, weakens Montana's argument for remaining the the Big Sky. The loss of regular games against the other Big Sky Charter members, Weber State and Idaho State--essentially a loss in these nearly 50-year-old rivalries--weakens the Big Sky considerably. Montana can keep their rivalry with Montana State and renew their rivalry with Idaho. This is better than they will have in the Big Sky. The other thing that changed, no Hawaii...easier travel.
The only remaining hitch in this expansion plan is whether Cal Poly can get funds to expand their stadium. Before the conference expansion craziness from last fall began, Cal Poly was considered a shoe-in for WAC inclusion and all that remained was expanding the stadium. That story has not changed, even with the loss of Fresno State and Nevada to the Mountain West.
There are also some rumored basketball-only schools being rumored. However, the WAC seems to be pursuing a football expansion right now.
If the WAC athletic directors get their choice, here is how the WAC will look in 2014.
The WAC Football 12?:
Cal Poly
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
Lamar
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
Portland State
San Jose State
Texas State
UTSA
Utah State
Or, try this:
Northwest Division
Cal Poly
Idaho
Montana
Montana State
San Jose State
Utah State
+2 Basketball only schools:
Seattle
CS Bakersfield
Southwest Division
Louisiana Tech
Lamar
New Mexico State
Texas State
UTSA
Sam Houston State
+2 Basketball only schools:
Denver
UT Arlington
The Big Sky will be left with 9 football schools and 8 basketball schools. That is likely where the Big Sky conference will stay...ie not expand further, but likely is open to Central Washington or Dixie State should they want to move to Division I. But perhaps Fullerton and the remaining athletic directors will consider adding Seattle as a non-football school.
UC Davis (Football Only)
Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Weber State
Perhaps Portland State or Cal Poly will remain.
Source of my information: http://www.mwcconnection.com/2011/5/8/2160933/wac-to-announce-further-expansion
But I have not implied as much as these authors have. I have not been able to find the link on KIDO, however. My sources name KIDO as the source. The news on KIDO is that the Humanitarian Bowl is considering folding after this year's edition.
5/18 Update...According to the San Jose Mercury News, the WAC will add at least one Basketball only school immediately. The rest of the expansion will be invited for future expansion in the 2013-2014 time frame. It is getting a little late to have an FBS upgrade by 2012.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Does SEC Expansion spell RIP WAC?
Rumors are popping up about the Southeast Conference expanding into Texas. Rumors are like car wash tokens. Whether or not they are of any value depends on a lot of factors beyond our control. However, we have learned in recent history that big conference expansion means doom for the little guys. In this case, it could end the WAC.
The rumors are that that SEC is ready to go to 14, and they want to expand into the heart of Texas. Weather the Texas Longhorns want the SEC is another question. Texas has to be the big boy, the one with all the attention. The one calling all of the shots. Kind of what BYU thought they had in the MWC before Utah joined the PAC-10. Where BYU would have jumped at the opportunity to join the PAC-10, Texas is luke warm on the idea of joining the SEC. And the SEC does not need to allow Texas to join and let Texas decide their terms. There will be no negotiation. If Texas does not like the SEC offer, they will take another path...independence. Texas and the SEC will flirt, but if it does not work our right away, it will go no farther.
Texas A&M will consider the SEC, however. So will Oklahoma. This is the way that it appears to be working out. The SEC gets A&M and Oklahoma. Texas goes out on their own and becomes the 5th FBS independent. Not sure where basketball goes, likely either the Big East, MVC or independent as well.
Now, how the dominoes fall from here is anyone's guess.
(Disclaimer: this is not a prediction.)
Scenario 1--WAC dies
SEC invites Texas and Texas A&M...
ACC invites West Virginia and Rutgers
Big East invites Kansas and Missouri
Big 12 invites BYU, Boise State, SMU, Houston, UNLV and San Diego State (Remember that the Big 12 still as Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Baylor)
MWC invites Utah State, San Jose State and Idaho
C-USA invites Louisiana Tech and UTSA
Sun Belt invites Texas State
New Mexico State is left without a conference
alt: BYU remains independent, the Big 12 adds Air Force instead and the MWC accepts New Mexico State. Getting BYU and Boise State will be critical for the Big 12 to keep their BCS AQ status.
Scenario 2--WAC survives
SEC invites Texas A&M and Oklahoma
Texas becomes independent
ACC invites West Virginia and Rutgers
Big East invites Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State
Big 12 disbands
MWC invites Texas Tech and Kansas State
WAC invites Iowa State
C-USA invites Baylor and MTSU
alt: Big East invites Texas Tech and Kansas State as well (That would put the Big East at 20 overall and 12 for football). The MWC invites Baylor and Iowa State and the WAC is left alone.
I'm sure that I will be bombarded with other scenarios. But in the long run, the WAC could emerge from the ashes of other conferences or the WAC could die. If the SEC expands, it all depends on how the other conferences react.
The rumors are that that SEC is ready to go to 14, and they want to expand into the heart of Texas. Weather the Texas Longhorns want the SEC is another question. Texas has to be the big boy, the one with all the attention. The one calling all of the shots. Kind of what BYU thought they had in the MWC before Utah joined the PAC-10. Where BYU would have jumped at the opportunity to join the PAC-10, Texas is luke warm on the idea of joining the SEC. And the SEC does not need to allow Texas to join and let Texas decide their terms. There will be no negotiation. If Texas does not like the SEC offer, they will take another path...independence. Texas and the SEC will flirt, but if it does not work our right away, it will go no farther.
Texas A&M will consider the SEC, however. So will Oklahoma. This is the way that it appears to be working out. The SEC gets A&M and Oklahoma. Texas goes out on their own and becomes the 5th FBS independent. Not sure where basketball goes, likely either the Big East, MVC or independent as well.
Now, how the dominoes fall from here is anyone's guess.
(Disclaimer: this is not a prediction.)
Scenario 1--WAC dies
SEC invites Texas and Texas A&M...
ACC invites West Virginia and Rutgers
Big East invites Kansas and Missouri
Big 12 invites BYU, Boise State, SMU, Houston, UNLV and San Diego State (Remember that the Big 12 still as Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Baylor)
MWC invites Utah State, San Jose State and Idaho
C-USA invites Louisiana Tech and UTSA
Sun Belt invites Texas State
New Mexico State is left without a conference
alt: BYU remains independent, the Big 12 adds Air Force instead and the MWC accepts New Mexico State. Getting BYU and Boise State will be critical for the Big 12 to keep their BCS AQ status.
Scenario 2--WAC survives
SEC invites Texas A&M and Oklahoma
Texas becomes independent
ACC invites West Virginia and Rutgers
Big East invites Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State
Big 12 disbands
MWC invites Texas Tech and Kansas State
WAC invites Iowa State
C-USA invites Baylor and MTSU
alt: Big East invites Texas Tech and Kansas State as well (That would put the Big East at 20 overall and 12 for football). The MWC invites Baylor and Iowa State and the WAC is left alone.
I'm sure that I will be bombarded with other scenarios. But in the long run, the WAC could emerge from the ashes of other conferences or the WAC could die. If the SEC expands, it all depends on how the other conferences react.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
TV Deals...Some People Are Not Getting a Penny This Year
The Runnin' Utes will not get a dime of TV money in 2011, unless their game with BYU is televised nationally. Same for Hawaii. Any wonder why TCU did an about face and was willing to play the Cougars on a neutral field this year? TV money.
The WAC is cutting Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii out of the TV money this year. And the MWC is doing the same to TCU. Utah, in their first year in the PAC-12...nothing. These programs, in transition have to worry how to get by without any TV revenues.
But do not feel too bad for Utah, in a few years the Utes will be getting 21 million per year. TCU will be getting a hunka change as well. Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii...will get a million or so every year with the MWC TV deal, which is renegotiable every season.
As for the WAC, they will have to get by on about 500,000 per school. Schools will need the BYU agreement to help out.
Now for BYU, they get an immediate windfall. About 3 million per game. And there are already 3 games scheduled for ESPN. Home games against Central Florida and Utah State and the aforementioned game against TCU. That will net the Cougs about 9 million and counting for 2011. Expect that the Utah game will be on an ESPN network and a couple of other 2011 games to show up at least upon ESPN 3. And if both BYU and Hawaii are on the BCS radar in December, do you think that ESPN will ignore it? Yep, it looks like the Honolulu Star forgot to mention that one.
In the end, the Cougars still get 14 to 15 million. And yes, that pales in comparison to the 21 million per year that the PAC-12 schools gross. But it is far better than what the Cougars used to get.
The WAC is cutting Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii out of the TV money this year. And the MWC is doing the same to TCU. Utah, in their first year in the PAC-12...nothing. These programs, in transition have to worry how to get by without any TV revenues.
But do not feel too bad for Utah, in a few years the Utes will be getting 21 million per year. TCU will be getting a hunka change as well. Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii...will get a million or so every year with the MWC TV deal, which is renegotiable every season.
As for the WAC, they will have to get by on about 500,000 per school. Schools will need the BYU agreement to help out.
Now for BYU, they get an immediate windfall. About 3 million per game. And there are already 3 games scheduled for ESPN. Home games against Central Florida and Utah State and the aforementioned game against TCU. That will net the Cougs about 9 million and counting for 2011. Expect that the Utah game will be on an ESPN network and a couple of other 2011 games to show up at least upon ESPN 3. And if both BYU and Hawaii are on the BCS radar in December, do you think that ESPN will ignore it? Yep, it looks like the Honolulu Star forgot to mention that one.
In the end, the Cougars still get 14 to 15 million. And yes, that pales in comparison to the 21 million per year that the PAC-12 schools gross. But it is far better than what the Cougars used to get.
The Real New Threat to the WAC...Attendance.
What will life in the WAC be like without Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada and Hawaii? It is possible that there will be weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth when it comes to counting gate receipts. No where was that more of a problem than with Idaho this past season. The Kibbie Dome, one of the smallest venues in the FBS, has struggled to bring in the kind of crowds needed for the Idaho Vandals to remain a Football Bowl Subdivision team.
Here is the game-by-game attendance for Idaho in 2010:
S2 (Thursday) North Dakota 45-0 win 11,466 (Idaho's Record now 1-0 with 1-0 at home)
S18 UNLV 30-7 win 15,390 (Idaho's Record now 2-1, 2-0 at home)
O23 New Mexico State 37-14 win 13,812 (Idaho's Record now 4-3, 3-0 at home)
N6 #23 Nevada 67-17 loss 11,247 (Idaho's record now 4-5, 3-1 at home)
N12 #4 Boise State 52-14 loss 16,453 (Idaho's record now 4-6, 3-2 at home)
D4 San Jose State 26-23 win 8,011 (Idaho's final record 6-7, 4-2 at home)
According to the NCAA, Idaho's 2010 attendance was 12,730, which was 2nd worst in the FBS. In 2009, they were at 12,546, which means they saw only a slight improvement. Looking at Idaho's attendance history, the pattern is similar year after year.
When was Idaho's attendance the best?
1. Against Boise State.
2. Against winnable FBS opponents
3. When going to a bowl game was a possibility
4. In October and November when attendance in not inhibited by weather.
Boise State will not be on the schedule for a while. Therefore, Idaho should look as some of the other strongly attended games and pattern future schedules in the same manner. They should avoid playing games late in the year. This is curious. Why would you avoid playing games late in the season if you have an indoor stadium? It is because much of their fan base has to travel to Moscow. You can keep the game indoors and out of the weather, but you can not keep travel to the game indoors and out of the weather. If I were Idaho, I would forget about playing anything at home after Thanksgiving. The crowds do not seem to turn out. Here are the full recommendations.
1. Patch things up with Boise State and keep the rivalry going.
2. Try to play the games against the stronger conference opponents earlier in the season.
3. Fans will remain interested if there is something worth playing for at the end of the season...keep the schedule balanced.
4. No home games after Thanksgiving.
Finally, do not give up the dream for a new outdoor stadium. Just, first, work on getting people to the current indoor stadium.
Here is the game-by-game attendance for Idaho in 2010:
S2 (Thursday) North Dakota 45-0 win 11,466 (Idaho's Record now 1-0 with 1-0 at home)
S18 UNLV 30-7 win 15,390 (Idaho's Record now 2-1, 2-0 at home)
O23 New Mexico State 37-14 win 13,812 (Idaho's Record now 4-3, 3-0 at home)
N6 #23 Nevada 67-17 loss 11,247 (Idaho's record now 4-5, 3-1 at home)
N12 #4 Boise State 52-14 loss 16,453 (Idaho's record now 4-6, 3-2 at home)
D4 San Jose State 26-23 win 8,011 (Idaho's final record 6-7, 4-2 at home)
According to the NCAA, Idaho's 2010 attendance was 12,730, which was 2nd worst in the FBS. In 2009, they were at 12,546, which means they saw only a slight improvement. Looking at Idaho's attendance history, the pattern is similar year after year.
When was Idaho's attendance the best?
1. Against Boise State.
2. Against winnable FBS opponents
3. When going to a bowl game was a possibility
4. In October and November when attendance in not inhibited by weather.
Boise State will not be on the schedule for a while. Therefore, Idaho should look as some of the other strongly attended games and pattern future schedules in the same manner. They should avoid playing games late in the year. This is curious. Why would you avoid playing games late in the season if you have an indoor stadium? It is because much of their fan base has to travel to Moscow. You can keep the game indoors and out of the weather, but you can not keep travel to the game indoors and out of the weather. If I were Idaho, I would forget about playing anything at home after Thanksgiving. The crowds do not seem to turn out. Here are the full recommendations.
1. Patch things up with Boise State and keep the rivalry going.
2. Try to play the games against the stronger conference opponents earlier in the season.
3. Fans will remain interested if there is something worth playing for at the end of the season...keep the schedule balanced.
4. No home games after Thanksgiving.
Finally, do not give up the dream for a new outdoor stadium. Just, first, work on getting people to the current indoor stadium.
Monday, May 2, 2011
A Look Ahead to 2013
A look at 2013 schedules. This post will be updated when additional information is available.
BYU 2013 Schedule
A31 Open
S7 Texas
S14 Utah**
S21 Boise State
S28 Open
O4 @Utah State
O12 Ga Tech
O19 @Houston
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 @ Notre Dame
N23 Open
N30 Open
D7 @Hawaii**
**Marks an assumed adjustment.
Needs: 2 Road Games
2/3 Home games.
Option to schedule another game due to visiting Hawaii. BYU did not take advantage of this option in 2011.
Bowl Commitment: Kraft Fight Hunger
Commentary: Fans finally getting rewarded for independence. Texas, Boise State, Utah and Georgia Tech at home. My hunch is that you will see San Jose State and Louisiana Tech fill out the home schedule . The road schedule could be filled out with a big "name" school and a weaker opponent like Idaho considering that renovations on the Kibbie Hole, I mean Dome, will be complete and considering Idaho visits Provo in both 2011 and 2012.
Utah 2013 Schedule
A29 Utah State
S7 Open
S14 @BYU
S21 Open
S28 Open
O5 Open
O12 Open
O19 Open
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 Open
N23 Open
N30 Colorado
D6 PAC 12 Championship
PAC-12 South Division Home Games: Arizona Stat and UCLA
PAC-12 South Division Road Games: Arizona and USC
PAC-12 Other Games: 2 @ Home and 2 on the road
Need: 1 more non-conference game, expect an FCS team at home.
Commentary:
Utah State 2013 Schedule
A29 @ Utah
S7 San Diego State
S14 Open
S21 @ USC
S28 @ UNLV
O4 BYU
O12 Open
O19 Open
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 Open
N23 Open
N30 Open
D6 Open
Need 1 more home game.
Unscheduled WAC Home Games: Louisiana Tech, UTSA and San Jose State
Unscheduled WAC Road Games: Idaho, Texas State and New Mexico State
Commentary:
There is a lot in the air between now and 2013. The WAC could add at least one more member in 2013 or 2014, but could lose Louisiana Tech to another conference and/or Idaho to FCS relegation due to their poor attendance. If the WAC loses 2, it will stop sponsoring football. The Aggies could get an MWC invite which means that San Diego State and UNLV become conference games.
Weber State 2013 Schedule
A31 Open
S7 Open
S14 Open
S21 Open
S28 Sacramento State
O5 @ Eastern Washington
O12 @ Cal Poly
O19 Montana State
O26 Open
N2 @ Portland State
N9 Southern Utah
N16 @ Montana
N23 Idaho State
N30 FCS Playoffs
Commentary:
The NCAA in 2013 and 2014 is experimenting with beginning the playoffs a week later. They will begin in week 14 instead of week 13. This gives the FCS schools additional flexibility in scheduling. Perhaps WSU can get a week between their body bag games to rest up.
SUU 2013 Schedule
A31 Open
S7 Open
S14 Open
S21 Open
S28 @ Northern Colorado
O5 UC Davis
O12 Portland State
O19 @ Eastern Washington
O26 Idaho State
N2 Open
N9 @ Weber State
N16 @ Montana State
N23 Northern Arizona
N30 FCS Playoffs
Commentary:
Again, I am pleased that the playoffs are a week later. Should be easier to get some good teams scheduled.
BYU 2013 Schedule
A31 Open
S7 Texas
S14 Utah**
S21 Boise State
S28 Open
O4 @Utah State
O12 Ga Tech
O19 @Houston
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 @ Notre Dame
N23 Open
N30 Open
D7 @Hawaii**
**Marks an assumed adjustment.
Needs: 2 Road Games
2/3 Home games.
Option to schedule another game due to visiting Hawaii. BYU did not take advantage of this option in 2011.
Bowl Commitment: Kraft Fight Hunger
Commentary: Fans finally getting rewarded for independence. Texas, Boise State, Utah and Georgia Tech at home. My hunch is that you will see San Jose State and Louisiana Tech fill out the home schedule . The road schedule could be filled out with a big "name" school and a weaker opponent like Idaho considering that renovations on the Kibbie Hole, I mean Dome, will be complete and considering Idaho visits Provo in both 2011 and 2012.
Utah 2013 Schedule
A29 Utah State
S7 Open
S14 @BYU
S21 Open
S28 Open
O5 Open
O12 Open
O19 Open
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 Open
N23 Open
N30 Colorado
D6 PAC 12 Championship
PAC-12 South Division Home Games: Arizona Stat and UCLA
PAC-12 South Division Road Games: Arizona and USC
PAC-12 Other Games: 2 @ Home and 2 on the road
Need: 1 more non-conference game, expect an FCS team at home.
Commentary:
Utah State 2013 Schedule
A29 @ Utah
S7 San Diego State
S14 Open
S21 @ USC
S28 @ UNLV
O4 BYU
O12 Open
O19 Open
O26 Open
N2 Open
N9 Open
N16 Open
N23 Open
N30 Open
D6 Open
Need 1 more home game.
Unscheduled WAC Home Games: Louisiana Tech, UTSA and San Jose State
Unscheduled WAC Road Games: Idaho, Texas State and New Mexico State
Commentary:
There is a lot in the air between now and 2013. The WAC could add at least one more member in 2013 or 2014, but could lose Louisiana Tech to another conference and/or Idaho to FCS relegation due to their poor attendance. If the WAC loses 2, it will stop sponsoring football. The Aggies could get an MWC invite which means that San Diego State and UNLV become conference games.
Weber State 2013 Schedule
A31 Open
S7 Open
S14 Open
S21 Open
S28 Sacramento State
O5 @ Eastern Washington
O12 @ Cal Poly
O19 Montana State
O26 Open
N2 @ Portland State
N9 Southern Utah
N16 @ Montana
N23 Idaho State
N30 FCS Playoffs
Commentary:
The NCAA in 2013 and 2014 is experimenting with beginning the playoffs a week later. They will begin in week 14 instead of week 13. This gives the FCS schools additional flexibility in scheduling. Perhaps WSU can get a week between their body bag games to rest up.
SUU 2013 Schedule
A31 Open
S7 Open
S14 Open
S21 Open
S28 @ Northern Colorado
O5 UC Davis
O12 Portland State
O19 @ Eastern Washington
O26 Idaho State
N2 Open
N9 @ Weber State
N16 @ Montana State
N23 Northern Arizona
N30 FCS Playoffs
Commentary:
Again, I am pleased that the playoffs are a week later. Should be easier to get some good teams scheduled.
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