This morning the Deseret Morning News retracted somewhat from the "BYU as an Independent Done Deal" stance. They report that BYU has been involved with Fresno State and Nevada being invited to the MWC. They also report that this is part of a deal being worked out with CBS and Comcast. I doubt that this will happen if the MWC is a BYU-less 10-team conference. There is an editorial in the Ft. Worth Star Telegram stating that TCU will be invited to the Big-12. But this is an opinion piece. The next step has to be an invitation to another Texas school to help keep TCU in the fold and to make the MWC a 12-team conference. IMHO-Houston, SMU and UTEP, in that order. Either should placate CBS.
I do not know the details of the CBS deal. No one does. Again, my opinion is that it will involve moving the SEC games to prime-time and broadcasting MWC games on the Tiffany Network during the afternoon. ESPN/ABC has prime time college football games. It may happen with NBC if they get the PAC-12 deal. It could involve Air Force taking on their sister academies and the championship game plus a heavy dose of BYU, Boise State and TCU. It should include the BYU/Utah game when it is played in Provo.
Meanwhile, the WAC is now a 6-team football school. I expect an invitation to Texas State (San Marcos) and Montana at any time. They need at least 8 for 2011. There will be a third school invited as well, but who that will be I can only guess, and my guess is Montana State or Cal Poly. The WAC will get 10 million from the departure of Fresno and Nevada. A large portion of that money can go directly to Cal Poly for their stadium expansion. Therefore, Cal-Poly could get an invite instead of one of the other three. Eastern Washington or Weber State or Sacramento State or Portland State or Cal Davis could also get an invite, but they are down the list. There are other options for Texas, but UTSA will not be ready until 2014. Lamar and Stephen F. Austin do not have facilities.
For you who are Big Sky fans, it is time to think about replacements. Montana to the WAC now seems inevitable and chances are very good another school from the Sky will join them. Who ever is left out between Cal Poly and Cal Davis should be at the top of the list. Also look for Southern Utah, Dixie State and Central Washington to get a serious look. I like the Southern Utah/Dixie State pair, myself.
The WAC is going to need an emergency transition approval from the NCAA to get Montana to move up. I expect little problem with that because the Missoula school already has the facilities in place. The deadline for the 2011 season was June 1st. Texas State has already applied for the transition and is waiting for approval.
Now back to BYU as an independent in football and part of the WAC. There is little for the WAC to offer BYU in Basketball now that Nevada and Fresno are not there. BYU would give up playing in Las Vegas, Albuquerque, San Diego, Fresno and Reno. Playing in Logan and Las Cruces would be good, and La Tech did give us the Mailman. San Jose State, Hawaii and Idaho are no basketball powers. In basketball, only USU of the remaining six could consistently win in the MWC. But otherwise, the WAC is a terrible basketball conference which would likely only produce 1 NCAA bid even with the Cougars. Finish second and not winning the conference tournament would mean an NIT bid, even with a 25-win season. Montana and Texas State will add little to that profile.
Also, the "confirmation" that BYU indy is a done deal came for Logan. No one from Provo or the LDS church has confirmed the deal.
To summarize, here is the evidence BYU will NOT go independent.
-Pending MWC deal with CBS and Comcast.
-Need to placate TCU and keep them in the fold.
-Both Nevada AND Fresno joining the MWC.
-MWC discussions with Houston, SMU and UTEP.
-The WAC left with only one real basketball power: USU. Two others with a luke-warm reputation, NMSU and LATech and three who are not known as basketball powers at all, Hawaii, SJSU and Idaho.
-Who the WAC will call on to replace Fresno and Nevada: Montana and Texas State are no basketball powers either.
-The "confirmation" of independence not coming from BYU or the LDS church.
New Information:
-According to the Fresno Bee, the invitations to Fresno State and Nevada went out on Tuesday. The day before BYU independence rumors went viral.
Conclusion...at most, the independence rumors were a negotiating ploy to the rest of the MWC to take action. The information was false, or BYU is leaving their options open.
WAC options at this time:
-Texas State and Montana are likely. Other possibilities are Montana State, Cal Poly and UT San Antonio. Outside possibilities include other Big Sky schools, Cal Davis and FBS schools from Texas.
Time for the Big Sky to look at replacements for Montana and possibly someone else.
12:00 Noon Update--
Interesting blog from Block U...I quote the best part, "But from the developments we've seen over the last 24 hours, much of what is being reported is either wrong or the Cougars have no f'n idea what they're doing."
4:30 PM update
1. In Karl Benson's afternoon conference, he was asked specifically about Texas State, Cal Poly and Montana. He did not say so in so many words, but seemed to confirm that these three are under consideration for WAC membership. The WAC also intends to hold Fresno and Nevada in the WAC for 2011 and expect the money within 60 days. The Fresno Bee said that the Bulldog sports endowment can and is willing to pay.
2. Heard some interesting things listening to KALL 700 on the way home from work. First, ESPN's deal with BYU says that they will broker 3 to 5 games for BYU each season. That the Texas series is expanding to three games with the rubber match at a neutral site. And Gary Patterson confirming what has been said in the Ft Worth Star Telegram, that the last domino has yet to fall. There is even suspicion that an MWC Super Conference is in the works. But I doubt that there are any additional WAC Schools are under consideration. If this is true, the five could be Houston, SMU, UTEP, Tulsa and Memphis--my guess. The Big XII does not want TCU.
8:30 Update
The Deseret News is reporting that Utah State has been offered an MWC membership. I am surprised by this. Two reasons they are not able to accept. They do not have the 5 million for the buy-out...but who will be left to collect? Second is they were chiefly the ones brokering the BYU independence deal. That is not likely to happen. Either the MWC is going to expand to 14...which will work with a 12-game schedule or they will be staying at 12. Yes, USU struggles on the gridiron, but they have an awesome basketball program with the best coach in the West and their academics programs are without peer.
This has to be another insult to the Hawaii program, perhaps the final insult. They are hemorrhaging money. But for Hawaii, being independent in football and joining the WCC for other sports makes better sense for them than it would for BYU. They would only travel to the West Coast for conference games. And for football, they could play 8 home games and fill their schedule. I suspect that if USU changes their mind, that San Jose State will drop football, Idaho will return to the FCS and New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech will join the Sun Belt Conference again, or they could fill empty slots in Conference USA. The WAC will be finished. They will not be a football conference until they can get at least 6 members.
My belief is, that if USU does join the MWC, that 14 will be the number. And two schools from Texas will join. If they stay at 12, then BYU and USU could end up in different divisions, but play each-other every season. The SEC works this way.
IF 12
West Divsion East Divsion Every Season Opponent
Boise State----->TCU
Nevada---------->Colorado State
UNLV------------>Air Force
Fresno State---->Wyoming
San Diego State->New Mexico
Utah State------>BYU
IF 14 assuming Utah State, SMU and UTEP
West Division
Boise State
BYU
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
San Diego State
Utah State
East Division
Air Force
Colorado State
New Mexico
TCU
UTEP
SMU
Wyoming
Disposition of the remaining WAC members, if the WAC breaks up:
Hawaii--Independent in Football, part of the WCC in other sports.
La Tech/NM-State--Sun belt or C-USA
Idaho--Reclassified to FCS, Return to Big Sky or Join Great West.
San Jose State--Drop football, Big West in other sports.
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