More WACy speculation on my part.
If BYU makes no announcement by Wednesday, they will remain in the MWC for the 2011 season. This may have been the plan all along...that BYU would remain in the conference for 2011 and that all of this planning for independence is if nothing comes from the Big XII for 2012. Word is that negotiation are still on with the WAC (not the Big XII). The WAC will need to add some schools, but not just anyone. They need add focus on programs that may make the conference a soft spot for BYU to land.
The WAC is down by 2, which means right now they have six schools for 2011. They will need to keep Fresno and Nevada in for 2011 and I suspect that the MWC will cooperate, but the schools involved may not. There will be no automatic bowl bids or NCAA tourney if the WAC is at 6 members. BYU could still join the WAC for non-football sports if that conference can get some other good basketball talent on board. If you are going to invite FCS teams, the WAC should invite a school with a good basketball program and facilities that will require little expense to upgrade. They should also invite schools that are close to sponsoring enough sports to make the move. That magic number is 16, with title IX compliance. My WAC short list has changed, considering the basketball quality.
Off the WAC short list:
Cal Poly--Football stadium needs to be expanded. They are a good fit for the WAC and would be a boost academically, but otherwise, no. Same for Cal-Davis. Portland State has a large enough football stadium that will be shared with the MLS Timbers, but the basketball arena only seats 1,200. Eastern Washington does not sponsor enough sports to make the jump to the FBS level feasible. Sacramento State has not even been a minor success--not enough in either football or basketball to be taken seriously.
New Short List
Montana--7 NCAA appearances, 3 NIT appearances. Good facilities and good fan support. Good fit geographically. Need to add two more sports to make the jump. Collect the 5 million from Nevada and Fresno and help Montana make the move.
Montana State--Their tradition in basketball is as good as any. Recent success has been fleeting. The men's basketball team plays in a venerable old arena, but a good one. The main drawback, IMHO, is that the weather in late October and November can be as bad as Laramie, Wyoming, if not worse. It is colder than Laramie. For those not familiar with Montana, Bozeman is the county seat of Gallatin County, the same county includes a little hamlet known as West Yellowstone which is often the coldest spot in the continental US. A football stadium expansion is underway. The stadium will seat 22,000 when finished. Only need to add 1 more Woman's sport to make the move. (They have an NCAA rodeo team.) How about some gymnastics in Bozeman?!
Weber State--2012 may be about 8 years too early to make the jump, but opportunity is still knocking now. In basketball, the Wildcats have 14 NCAA appearances under their belt. (That is one more than New Mexico's 13.) And they have made some noise in the tournament as well, they have 5 wins. You can ask fans of Michigan State and North Carolina about looking past Weber State in the NCAA tourney. They have a nice 12,000 seat basketball arena. They have been known to draw more fans to basketball games than football games--but at the FBS level, that will need to change. Their football stadium does not need to be expanded, only updated--it holds 17,000. They could expand the stadium to 20,000+ easily if the stands on both the east and west sides were to be extended all the way to the endlines. Right now, they only extend to the goal lines. They could add some bleachers to the south end zone that can be removed for track season. The view from the football stadium rivals BYU's view. They have experienced consistent success under coach Ron McBride. Academically, they might be a weak addition because they offer no doctorate degrees. That will also change sometime soon. WSU only needs one more sport to make the jump, and that should be baseball or ice hockey because there are nice facilities already in place for those sports.
Texas State--This invitation may already be in the works, depending on the move BYU makes. They have some work to do to improve their basketball program, however. The Bobcats are 0-2 in the big dance.
Lamar--10 NCAA appearances for the Cardinal Men's Hoops Program in recent history. But the football program was just re-instated. They had some minor successes before it was dropped in the mid-80s. The were the first D-IAA team to beat a D-IA team when they shocked Baylor in 1981. Baylor was ranked 20th at the time. They could do well or they could end up being a bottom feeder on the gridiron.
Northern Arizona--They have shown up in the NCAA tournament, but there are some drawbacks. First is that their football facility is an indoor facility that seats 15,000, which would give them the same problem that you have with Idaho. The stadium can not be easily expanded. Second is that they are separated from Maricopa County, the Phoenix Metro, by 140 miles. The program would have to be special to make that trip worth the trouble and out-shadow the Arizona State program.
Basketball only members
BYU--Independence is still an option. If the WAC will focus on getting good basketball programs, this move will still work.
Denver--The WAC is headquartered in Denver.
Seattle--Yes, the Red Hawks compete with the Huskies for fans, but not with the NBA right now.
Other options:
The WAC could also benefit from talking a school like Pacific or Long Beach State into re-instating their football programs.
What the WAC could look like? I think that Hawaii will follow BYU's lead and go independent in Football and join the Big West for other sports. The reason is it would save the program a ton of money on travel, as they would never need to travel east of California for a conference basketball game. Independence will work in football because they will have little trouble in getting other programs to travel to Hawaii in the late season. If you are Minnesota, for example, wouldn't you like to go to Hawaii for a November game instead of playing outside in Minneapolis? The Hawaii tourism council was willing to subsidize travel for the PAC-10 should they invite Hawaii. I think that if Hawaii goes indy, that some of that tourism money could help them fill the schedule. Another bonus is that any team that visits Hawaii would get an extra home game.
La Tech also needs to go. They have never been a good fit for the WAC. They would be better off in either Conference USA or the Sun Belt Conference. When all of the dust settles, I have no doubt that they will be more geographically aligned with their conference competition.
If this happens, the WAC also losing Hawaii and La Tech due to travel and geography, all of the teams listed on the short list could become WAC invitees in the near future, they will have room for all but one. Likely Northern Arizona, due to the stadium issue, will be left on the outside.
WAC for 2012?
Football--9 members
Idaho
Lamar
Montana
Montana State
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Texas State
Utah State
Weber State
Basketball and other sports--12 members
Add:
BYU
Denver
Seattle
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