It has been said that Utah can not support another Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) program until the population grows a little bit more. Those critics have a point. This is my first look at population, and it has changed my mind about Weber State and their possibility of moving to the WAC. I have crunched the numbers and here is what I found.
There are 3 FBS programs in the state of Utah. According to 2007 census estimates, the population in Utah was nearly 2.8 million. That is about 928,000 persons per FBS program. That is well below the national average of 1,973,000 persons per FBS program. Even if Utah State drops out of the FBS to the FCS, Utah would still be a little below the national average.
Keep in mind, however, that this number is skewed a little bit by New Jersey and Massachusetts which only have one FBS program in their entire state. This would explain why the Big 10 is so interested in Rutgers and why the ACC has passed up West Virginia for Boston College.
In spite of having 7 FBS programs already, California has room for others. The Golden State already has 5,200,000 residents per FBS school. This is part of the reason why Cal-Davis, Sacramento State and Cal-Poly are frequently mentioned as FBS potential programs and WAC targets. California has room for more than twice as many FBS programs than it currently has. No wonder it is a recruiting hot bed for programs from other states.
Population, however, is not the only indicator of college football success, just an indicator of how much money a program can bring it's conference. For example, how many FBS programs can you name in the Five Burroughs of New York City? There are not any. The closest FBS program to the Big Apple? The US Military Academy (Army) just up the Hudson from New York City in West Point. The other two FBS programs in New York (Syracuse and Buffalo) are up state. The University of Connecticut is actually closer to most New Yorkers than other programs. Perhaps the citizens of New York have better things to do on a Saturday afternoon, or perhaps everyone from New York is from somewhere else and has not attached themselves to one of the FCS programs in the city. Perhaps New Yorkers only care about the NFL teams in (near) the City. One of the FCS programs in the five Burroughs, Hofstra, recently dropped football. That leaves only Fordham (Bronx), Columbia (Manhattan) and Wagner (Staten Island) playing football, all in the lower subdivision. Let's note that the East is filled with smaller universities that provide plenty of tradition for their students without big sports programs.
There are other factors that determine success as well. For example, Arizona has about 3,298,000 people per FBS program. However, the Arizona schools are not the most successful on the field nor at the gate. While Idaho boasts only 722,000 per FBS program, look at what Boise State has done lately? Arizona has a relatively old population and fewer high school students per capita compared to Idaho. Boise State, like BYU and Utah, has successfully raided California for recruits. Also keep in mind that while Boise State has been incredibly successful in the past decade, the University of Idaho has struggled since moving up from the FCS with only 2 winning seasons.
Tradition is another predictor of success. Texas A&M and Texas are not near the biggest cities in Texas, both are at least an hour drive away. But the tradition brings the fans and the money to these schools.
The state with the highest population that does not have an FBS program is New Hampshire. And the lowest populated state that has a university that competes at the FBS level is Wyoming. The Cowboy state is not only small in population, but also sparsely populated as well. North and South Dakota, Alaska, and Montana; other Western States with slightly larger populations and similar population densities do not have universities that sponsor an FBS football program. There is not state lower that 1.2 million residents per FBS program that sees a measure of consistent success with every program. That means winning seasons, conference championships and full stadiums. The smallest one can argue for is Oklahoma. Mississippi, some will argue, is the smallest, but when was the last time you saw either SEC program from Mississippi win a conference championship? (1963 for Ole Miss, 1941 for Mississippi State, 2003 for Southern Miss) West Virginia is another state that people would argue has been successful even though they have a smaller population that Utah. True, Marshall was successful at first, but that success has faded since Bob Pruett retired. West Virginia has been consistent, however.
What about Utah State? If the Aggies drop to the FCS, the ratio in Utah would be closer to the national average. If not for the boost in attendance provided by recent visits by BYU, Boise State and Utah, USU would likely already have been demoted to the FCS. With Utah moving to the PAC-10 and Boise State moving to the MWC, it is possible that these visits will be rare in the future. BYU and Utah will focus on keeping the Holy War rivalry alive and both will put playing Utah State at a lower priority. BSU has little incentive in scheduling the Aggies once they are not in the same conference. It does not help that Logan is an hour and a half drive from Salt Lake City. Many of the USU alumni, however, live in Salt Lake County. Perhaps some success on the field would make the drive to Logan worth the trip. One of the most difficult tickets to come by in Utah is a ticket to the Spectrum to see Stew's Crew play basketball.
Utah State is not alone. Idaho and Wyoming are in similar peril. Idaho is not in a sparse population center, but their football stadium is small. For Wyoming, the visits from the Utah schools, BYU and Utah, bring the fans out in Laramie. This is likely because of the high concentration of Latter-Day Saints in Wyoming. Utah will be making their last trip to Laramie this fall. Chances are that Boise State will not provide the same type of rivalry that Utah has for Wyoming.
The news isn't all bad for Weber State or Utah State fans. There are four states that have a lower per-capita FBS ratio than Utah. That number will be five once the University of South Alabama completes their FBS transition. If WSU did get promoted, Utah would still be well ahead of Wyoming and nearly even with Idaho. When considering total college football programs as all levels (FBS, FCS, DII and DIII), Utah is real close to the national average. It may be best for the entire state for Weber State to stand pat for now. Utah, arguably can support more college programs than average because the population is younger, and therefore there are more high school kids to recruit from. Utah also boasts the fastest population growth rate in the United States. Utah is growing at rate of about 60,000 per year. The time for Weber State may be in 15 to 20 years in the future. It may be time for football at Utah Valley or for Dixie State to consider promotion to the FCS from Division II, but those subjects will be addressed later.
The conclusion, Utah does not need Weber State as another FBS program at this time, when considering population. It could probably succeed, because there is more than just the number of TV sets that determine success. It also does not make sense for Weber State to make the move when Utah State is struggling. It is likely that both would fail. When Utah State can succeed, and bring fans to the gate consistently without BYU, Boise State and Utah on the regular schedule, then it will be safe for Weber State to move up. It will not be long before Utah can support 4 FBS programs. If 1.2 million is the minimum level of success, Utah only needs a population of 4.8 million. At the rate Utah is growing, it will not be long.
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Top 10 states with the largest ratio of citizens per FBS program.
New Jersey (1-Rutgers) 8,707,000
Massechusetts (1-Boston College) 6,594,000
New York (3-Army, Buffalo, Syracuse) 6,513,000
Missouri (1-University of Missouri) 5,998,000
Wisconsin (1-University of Wisconsin) 5,655,000
California (7-California, UCLA, Fresno State, Stanford, USC, San Diego State, San Jose State) 5,280,000
Minnesota (1-University of Minnesota) 5,226,000
Georgia (2-University of Georgia, Georgia Tech) 4,915,000
Illinois (3-University of Illinois, Northwestern, Northern Illinois) 4,303,000
Pennsylvania (3-Penn State, Pittsburgh, Temple) 4,202,000
(Note, Wisconsin and Minnesota have no FCS football programs)
Bottom 10 states with the smallest ratio of citizens per FBS program (Less than 1.1 million per program):
Wyoming (1-University of Wyoming) 544,000
Idaho (2-Boise State, University of Idaho) 772,000
Louisiana (5-Louisiana State, Tulane, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Lafayette, Louisiana Monroe) 898,000
West Virginia (2-Marshall, University of West Virginia) 910,000
Utah (3-BYU, University of Utah, Utah State) 928,000
Mississippi (3-Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Southern Mississippi) 984,000
New Mexico (2-University of New Mexico, New Mexico State) 1,004,000
Alabama (4-University of Alabama, Auburn, Troy, Alabama Birmingham) 1,177,000
Oklahoma (3-University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Tulsa) 1,229,000
Hawaii (1-University of Hawaii) 1,295,000
Note: The University of South Alabama will be promoted to the FBS in 2012, putting Alabama behind Utah.
States with no FBS college football programs:
Alaska (698,000)
Delaware (885,000)
Maine (1,318,000)
Montana (974,000)
New Hampshire (1,325,000)
North Dakota (647,000)
Rhode Island (1, 054,000)
South Dakota (812,000)
Vermont (621,000)
Note: The state of Alaska has no college football teams at all. This will likely not happen until Alaska has the population to justify an Alaska Anchorage FBS football program. The highest level that teams from Vermont and Maine compete at is Division III.
Based upon population, these struggling programs that could move from the FBS down to the FCS:
Wyoming
Idaho
Utah State
New Mexico State
Tulane
Based upon population, these programs are legitimate candidate schools that could move up from the FCS to the FBS. By State:
New Jersey:
Monmouth
Massachusetts:
University of Massachusetts
Holy Cross
New York:
Albany
Colgate
Fordham
Marist
Stony Brook
Wagner
Missouri:
Missouri State
Southeast Missouri State
California:
Cal-Davis
Cal Poly
Sacramento State
University of San Diego
(Note: All four are frequently mentioned as WAC invitees)
Georgia:
Georgia Southern (Recent FCS champion)
Pennsylvania:
Bucknell
Duquesne
Layfayette
Lehigh
Robert Morris
Saint Francis
Villanova (Note: Villanova is the defending FCS champion and competes in the Big East in Basketball)
Illinois:
Eastern Illinois
Western Illinois
Southern Illinois
Illinois State
Others:
Florida:
Jacksonville
Florida A & M
Bethune Cookman
Virginia:
Richmond (Recent FCS champion)
Old Dominion
William and Mary
Texas:
Texas State San Marcos
Stephen F. Austin
Lamar
Texas Southern
Texas San Antonio
Washington:
Eastern Washington
Washington DC:
Georgetown (Competes in the Big East in Basketball--based on the population for Maryland and Virginia.)
States without FCS programs:
New Hampshire:
University of New Hampshire
Rhode Island:
University of Rhode Island
Teams mentioned for promotion, based on population should that should stay in the FCS:
Montana
Weber State/Southern Utah
Portland State
Any FCS program in Tennessee
Any FCS program in Mississippi
Any FCS program in Louisiana
Any FCS program in Arkansas
Any FCS program in Alabama
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