Expansion Strategy for MWC and WAC.

First for the MWC.  After reading through the papers; both Salt Lake papers, Boise, Las Vegas, Reno and Sacramento; over the weekend, I believe that I can divine what strategy the other two Western FBS conferences will deploy when it comes to conference expansion.  Although, as we have learned, it is hard to see two weeks into the future in this business.

First, the MWC.  They have turned their focus to gaining AQ status in the BCS.  The MWC is fourth in 3 of the 4 categories, which is ratings, attendance and top ten finishes.  The problem is the MWC is 6th is average rankings.  Just barely ahead of the Big East, and far behind the Big 10.  The bottom feeders, namely New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State need to step up a bit in the next two years.  And Colorado State needs to end their free fall.  The chances of the MWC getting AQ status rest in the hands of these schools.  I am not expecting that the Aztecs get to the Rose Bowl this year, but winning at least two non-conference games will be big.

Now, if the MWC gains AQ status, that should mean a new contract with CBS, which should mean 6 to 8 games every season on the Tiffany Network.  If the MWC can increase their TV revenue from about 12 million to 50 million, which is still about a third of the PAC-12, then they can add three more schools.  The goal, at least the three with the inside track, are the remaining three schools from the classic pre-expansion WAC-10: Fresno State, Hawaii and UTEP.  The money that being an AQ conference would bring would more than pay for traveling to Hawaii, even for the non-revenue sports.

Craig Thompson said that he was contacted by 8-10 schools about MWC membership.  My guess is that those ten were: Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, Idaho, San Jose State, Utah State, UTEP, Tulsa, SMU and Houston.  Although, I am not certain about the last one.  These would all be good additions to the MWC.  The reason the MWC was formed in the first place was the loss of tradition.  Adding the last three of the pre-expansion WAC would complete that quest.

As I said before, unless the WAC can add North Texas without losing Louisiana Tech, the old conference will compete with just 8 members for 2011.  This is a problem with scheduling.  With a 12-game football schedule, a school will need 5 non-conference games to complete the schedule.  And Hawaii will need six.  This means most WAC schools will have two FCS teams on the schedule.  In fact, Utah State already does with Southern Utah and Weber State on the schedule.  If the 9th member of the WAC is an FCS school, which seems likely, then this is the fate of the conference for 2011.

In 2012, an FCS school would not be an official member of the WAC, but needs to have at least 6 games against FBS competition.  Therefore, the scheduling aspect is taken care of.  A current FCS school would be a full member of the conference for football in 2013, provided they meet the attendance requirement.  But a current FCS could become a conference member for basketball and other sports in 2011-2012.

Karl Benson says that he would like 9 for football and 10 for basketball.  Of all of the FCS schools in the WAC footprint, Weber State is the one that is best poised to make the move at this time.  Thanks to success on the basketball court recently, and aggressive scheduling of FBS teams, WSU seems to have money to upgrade.  WSU has also benefited from some successful and generous alumni who are beating the recession.  They have added softball, and baseball is around the corner.  That means that WSU has 15 sponsored sports.  Only one more needs to be added for the required 16.  There are also facilities being upgraded, such as the Dee Events Center and Stewart Stadium.  And there is an indoor practice facility in the works.

For basketball, there are three non-football candidates.  Denver, Seattle and Utah Valley.  Denver would have the inside track, and would actually save travel expense by making the move now.  Of course, the WAC needs to have a plan for two more defections.  In three to five years, maybe Montana, or one of the California schools would be ready.