Wednesday, June 2, 2010

It will be Utah and ...

Wrubell on his blog on KSL reports that press from Boise has been invited to the MWC presidents meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this weekend.  This seems to be confirmation that BSU will be invited to join the Mountain West Conference.  No word on if anyone else has been asked to come as well.  This is almost a sure sign that Boise State will be invited to join and that then MWC will be the first conference to announce expansion.

There are all sorts of speculation and rumor.  It is hard to separate fact from wishing in all of this.  But here is what looks to be truth.

The PAC-10 is exploring asking for a rule change to have a conference championship with 10 schools.  The University of Colorado has flat out denied getting contact from the PAC-10, therefore this does not seem likely.  Utah will not be an 11th school in the PAC-10.  They will come in with someone, and if the PAC-10 presidents can not accept a religious school, then San Diego State seems to be the logical partner.  I have to consider the possibility that the PAC-10 presidents may decide against expansion at this time.

The other rumor that I put in a category as more than just a rumor is UTEP to the MWC.  Now, imagine if the MWC invites Boise State, Fresno State and UTEP.  This would mean that the only old-WAC school not in the Mountain West would be Hawaii.  I have found out that Hawaii has BYU and UNLV on the schedule in the future.  There are going to be 50,000 angry Hawaiians crammed into Aloha Stadium to help Hawaii prove that they did not deserve to be left in the WAC.  Hawaii can prove this, however, by getting 50,000 angry Hawaiians into Aloha Stadium every Saturday and not just when BYU comes to town.

Now back to UTEP.  The argument for the Miners is that they have good facilities and are well supported by their fans even though they have had little success on the field.  They also have a bowl.  It's a benefit for UTEP as well, as they are a fringe school in Conference USA and their rivalries with MWC schools are more deeply seeded; especially New Mexico and BYU.

I would put UTEP ahead of Nevada on the list of potential schools as El Paso is about twice the size of Reno.  But I would only bring in UTEP if they brought the Sun Bowl into the MWC picture as well.  The Sun Bowl has a longer tradition that the Las Vegas Bowl, has a higher payout and would be an excellent place for the top non-BCS MWC football program to play every year.  They would either get a 3rd pick from the PAC-10 or a third pick form the Big XII as an opponent.

Now, what does the WAC do?  They do not have a lot of options for replacements for Boise State, Fresno State and possibly Nevada.  They will not be able to rebuild the conference just by raiding the Sun Belt Conference for replacements.  One interesting thing that I came across is that UT-San Antonio is planning to begin playing football in 2011.  The Alamodome has no football tenant, and has pushed for this to happen for years.  If I were the WAC, I would be all over this.  Help them sell tickets.  Why would you let a market like San Antonio begin playing college football at the FCS level?  This should be a no-brainier for the WAC.

Here is a list of replacements for the WAC--
From the Sun Belt Conference:
North Texas
Louisiana Layfeyette
Louisiana Monroe

FCS Programs:
UT San Antonio
Montana
Texas State-San Marcos
Stephen F. Austin
Sacramento State
Portland State
Montana State
Cal Poly
Cal Davis
San Diego University

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