Bottom Line: WAC and Sun Belt will be decimated and will have to look to FCS for replacements.
1. The Big 10--I think that there is a good chance that it will remain at 11 teams. It will take it's own sweet time to decide on if and who to expand. The conference last expanded in 1989 and had looked at it seriously in 1999. When it could not reach an agreement to add Notre Dame. My opinion--Notre Dame is the only target, and it will have to have an agreement to allow ND to keep their arrangement with NBC. Just talking about expansion in the Big 10 will cascade down.
2. The SEC, Big 12 and ACC will not make a move unless they have a loss of a team due to an SMU-like scandal.
3. Big East--The Big East has eight teams for football, and another eight teams that do not participate in football. I have found sites that state that a split is imminent. With the split, the football side of the Big East will raid C-USA for new members. My opinion: Central Florida, Memphis, East Carolina and Southern Mississippi. Although a Villanova promotion is intriguing.
4. Mountain West--Needs to solidify their standing if they want an automatic BCS bid in two years. What hurts this conference most is the tumble that New Mexico and Colorado State have taken in the past two years. An expanded recruiting base will help the conference the most. I expect that Boise State, Fresno State and Houston are the the most likely to get in. Although rumors are mentioning Nevada instead of Houston. There is also a SMU/Houston debate happening on some sites right now. Other targets, although unlikely, are UTEP, San Jose State and Hawaii. Tulsa is another possibility. The divisions will have to keep BYU, Utah, Colorado State and Wyoming, who have been in the same conference since the 1930s together. The MWC could loose three programs to other conferences: BYU, TCU and Utah.
5. PAC-10--schools in this conference have been hurt hard by the current recession. After all, four are in California. The reasons for expansion involve money, cash and dinero. The conference needs a better TV deal and a true conference championship game would be a good catalyst for that. Otherwise, there are no threats to this conference and no other drivers for expansion. Utah is a good fit for the PAC-10, but who comes with? Mormons are everywhere in PAC-10 country, and adding BYU can help the turnstiles spin a little faster. But the Cougars do not play on Sunday. Colorado, maybe, but are they happy with the Big XII? San Diego State would be a good option if they had a winning football program every once in a while, same with UNLV. I think the economy will recover before the PAC-10 makes a move on expansion. The most likely targets are Utah, Colorado, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV and Hawaii.
6. C-USA could be a big looser in the next wave of conference expansion. They could loose as many as five or more schools. They will likely raid the Sun Belt for replacements, although WAC-outliers Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State are tempting targets. My opinion is that UTEP will pressure the conference to add New Mexico Sate. With the current state of the economy, Louisiana Tech will want better travel arrangements. That will leave three potential Sun Belt additions. My opinion: Middle Tennesee, Troy and North Texas. C-USA could just add five from the Sun Belt, or in other words, a Sun Belt-C-USA merger.
7. WAC--The WAC could loose as many as five programs to expansion, but will most likely loose four: Boise State, Fresno State, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech. If the PAC-10 expands, Nevada and Hawaii and maybe even San Jose State could go as well. (Not to the PAC-10, but to the MWC.) If the worst case scenario happens, the WAC will likely cease to exist as Utah State and Idaho will be the only programs left. But let's say the WAC just looses four. There are not a lot of options out west for the WAC to consider without going to the FCS. So here are the list of options: Montana, Montana State, Portland State, Cal Poly, Sacramento State and UC-Davis. This will have to be a gradual rebuilding. Only Montana and Montana State average 15,000 fans per game. Cal Poly only has a 10,000 seat stadium, but are in an if-you-build-it-they-will-come situation. And the other three schools will have to build their fan base. If the C-USA adds exclusively from the Sun Belt, then the WAC may only loose two and Montana and Montana State would be nice additions.
8. Sun Belt--will loose three or more programs and will also have to look to FCS programs to rebuild. Appalachian State, Georgia Southern and Old Dominion are ready to move up.
However, this all may not happen. It is all talk. Conference expansion and re-alingment is costly and has unintended consequences. Sometimes, those consequences are not new. For example, will 25,000 fans show up in Missoula after a could of 6-6 seasons? What about C-USA after the loss of Memphis and the Liberty Bowl. And will the WAC really be able to promote four FCS schools? We may not have to find out.
I will discuss what the Big Sky can do in my next blog.
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