No matter how conference re-alignments cascade and if the economy continues to struggle, the Big Sky Conference is bound to loose a school or two or more in the next five years. As many as six could be gone.
Potential FBS Schools now in the Big Sky Conference:
-Montana--Has dominated the Big Sky since Idaho, Boise State and Nevada were promoted. Seems that they have been left behind and should have moved up as well. Natural fit for WAC.
-Montana State--Are in the fastest growing Mountain Time Zone city north of Utah and Colorado. Expanding and improving facilities for a 2022 Winter Olympic Bid. This energy is bound to improve the quality of athlete coming to Bozeman. In a position, because of their location, to benefit most if Idaho State drops football.
-Portland State--The Vikings are in a multi-sport major league city. Will benefit when the Timbers join MLS in 2011 as they share the facility. Attractive potential addition to the WAC.
-Sacramento State--Believed by some to already be a target of potential WAC expansion. Also a major league city.
Schools at risk of losing football programs
-Idaho State--Upset a lot of decision makers when they gave John Zamberlin a contract extension while other programs at the university are cutting back. That decision is indeed a head-scratch-er as the Bengals were winless at the time. ISU needs their own Ron McBride right now. Extending Zamberlin is a huge political miscalculation that could end up costing a football program in Pocatello.
-Northern Arizona--Another football program that is potentially lost if more budget cuts are needed at school. In spite of these persistent rumors, NAU managed a winning season last year. These rumors will persist until either the economy improves or NAU cuts their football program.
Stable Programs
-Eastern Washington--Keep loosing coaches to bigger programs, but the magic remains in Cheney. Since the loss of Idaho, Boise State and Nevada, the Eagles have only had one non-winning season.
-Weber State--Buoyed by a popular senior statesman in the Utah Football Community--Head Coach Ron McBride. Weber State football has been resurrected twice in the last 15 years. First when Mrs Stewart gave enough money for the new press box and luxury suite seats. Second when Ron McBride returned to the Beehive State. He is even winning recruits away from Utah and Utah State.
-Northern Colorado--Struggled a bit after moving to the BSC, but the program seems to be on the rise now.
Realistic Choices for New Conference Members:
Near Eastern Washington:
-Central Washington--Currently a division II school headquartered in Ellensburgh, Washington. The addition opens up recruiting in the Yakima, the Tri-Cities and Umatilla areas of Washington and Oregon. With Eastern Washington already in the fold, this can strengthen the presence of the conference in the Northwest.
-Western Washington--Located in Bellingham, Washington which is on I-5 just south of the Canadian Border. Currently a D-II school. It is close enough to Seattle to bring access to the bigger Washington State high schools for recruiting.
-Simon Frasier--Yes, the first Canadian School to compete "south of the border" would make a great addition to the conference. They are located near Vancouver proper and would instantly become the largest city in the Conference. Opens some good recruiting possibilities.
Near Weber State
-Dixie State--Currently a division II school that was a junior college not too long ago. Located in Saint George, Utah; which is the fastest growing city of it's size in the US. They have good facilities, including Hansen Stadium for football, which has even been used as a pre-season site for Major League Soccer. This addition makes sense.
-Southern Utah--Currently competes in the Great West Conference for football and the Summit League for basketball. Has tried to get into the Big Sky Conference before, but at the time the airport in Cedar City, Utah, was nothing more than a gravel runway. The city and county have since improved the airport facilities. Already has Weber State as a rival.
Near Northern Colorado
-Mesa State--The Grand Junction School is the only one I can find with an enrollment over 6000 in Colorado that sponsors football at the FCS or DII level. The others are too small and located too close to Denver not to be in the shadow of the DI-FBS schools in the area.
Other Schools and why they are not on the list:
San Diego--I can only come to the conclusion that the reason the Torreos are still in the Pioneer Conference for football is because that is where they want to be. Admission to the Big Sky would mean that all of their sports programs would have to come. Therefore, they would have to forget the other conference alignments that are working well for them.
Cal Poly and Cal Davis--I have to think that these programs would be as qualified for FBS promotion as, and perhaps even better candidates than, Portland State and Sacramento State are.
Humbolt State--Is very isolated, in a small community with a small student body. Travel there would be expensive.
Western Oregon--Could be a good fit if they could raise their recruiting profile. If PSU is in the shadow of Oregon State, WOU is in the shadow of PSU.
North Dakota/North Dakota State/South Dakota/South Dakota State--out of the footprint. All of these schools are in the eastern third of the Dakotas.
Adams State/Colorado Mines/Colorado State-Pueblo/Fort Lewis/Western State--All have a very small enrollment and sponsor too few sports to move up to DI-FCS. Many are too close to the Denver Metro and are in the Shadow of the Broncos and the bigger colleges.
Nebraska Kearney/Nebraska Omaha/Chadron State--The Nebraska board of Regents seems determined that the Cornhuskers are to be the only DI football state-sponsored school in Nebraska. UNO/UNK would have moved up years ago if the Regents would have allowed it. As if 200+ walk-ons are not enough in Lincoln. I do not see how allowing the Kearney Lopes to move to the FCS would hurt the Huskers, except for the fact that 15 to 20 kids would not longer have mom and dad paying for college in Lincoln.
Schools that would be a good fit if they only sponsored football:
There are many in the Big Sky footprint...let your imagination run wild.
What will happen: of course the loss of six programs is a worst-case scenario. The Big Sky Conference was hit hard with the loss of the Boise State, Idaho and Nevada programs in the mid-1990s when they had a reputation of being the best conference in the country at this level of College Football. The conference has yet to recover, and has slipped to second or third. One of the initial replacements, CS-Northridge dropped football. It would take some time to rebuild with this type of catastrophic loss. If this happens, hopefully it will not happen all at once. Realistically, at least two programs will be lost, hopefully to promotion. If the worst-case scenario happens, imagine this as your new Big Sky Conference:
Dixie State
Central Washington
Eastern Washington
Mesa State
Northern Colorado
Weber State
Western Washington
Simon Frasier
Southern Utah
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