Let me address a couple of rumors. First, this one about a MWC vs WAC championship game. This is nothing more than a pseudo-merger. This negates the reasons why eight schools left the WAC to join the MWC in the first place.
Second is about the rumor that the Mountain West Conference must expand to get an automatic BCS bid. (!!!Warning, link has offensive language!!!) I find the expansion for a new ESPN or other Network TV contract believable. However, I do not find the addition of the three schools mentioned to be accurate. I agree that taking Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada is a problem. It would kill the WAC.
The Mountain West needs the WAC and visa-versa. Non-conference scheduling is difficult for schools in both conferences, except for the bottom-feeders. This year, six of nine MWC schools had at least one game against a WAC school. (Air Force, TCU and Wyoming did not.) And all but Boise State and Fresno State had a game against the MWC. And the immidiate future looks similar. For example, BYU has Nevada, Utah State, Hawaii and Boise State on the future schedule. It looks to me like the MWC and WAC are becoming rival conferences much like the SEC and ACC are. Like the MWC and Missouri Valley would like to be in basketball.
Now, before one looks at adding a member to their conference, there are two other factors that the universities consider. Obviously, there needs to be a geographical fit. And, lesser known, is an academic fit. There are other things that a conference expansion can bring, such as an improved recruiting base for the entire conference and greater exposure with the conference members being mentioned more often in local newspapers and TV programs. Let's also not forget about the non-revenue sports, as those programs provide opportunity for some very talented men and women, even some from disadvantaged communities, to receive a quality education.
Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada are all a good fit geographically. But where one of these schools is a little weak, and it is Boise State, and they are week academically. BSU is a teaching institution that only offers, as of this academic year, five doctoral programs. However, BSU has only been a four year college for fourty-one years. It is unrealistic to expect that someone can grow from Junior College to a top-tier research institution in only two or three generations this kind of leap often takes an entire century or longer. It may take another sixty for BSU to catch up with the rest of the west academically. UNLV has done this, but with the help of taxes from gambling and prostitution, which would never happen at the same level in Idaho.
No doubt, Boise State is very good in football. But success in sports in often fading. For example, Colorado State won three of the first four Mountain West Conference championships in football. This year, that same program did not win a single conference game and finished in dead last. Does Boise State have the ability to keep a quality program? They have dominated the WAC since they joined the conference, even more so than BYU before them and Arizona State before that.
What about other sports? BSU is strong in Tennis. But they are a little weak in some of the other sports. Even though they are one of the few schools that has joined the 10-20-20 club, they have only made the NCAA tournament 5 times and have never won a first round game.
Fresno State is a consistent winner in football, but not nearly as strong as BSU. This is surprising considering they are the only FBS school in the Central Valley of California which boasts about 3 million people. This school has had some recent struggles on the basketball floor, but has shown it's commitment to a successful program with the construction of the Save Mart Center. In other sports, they have a recent College World Series Championship to their credit.
Nevada and Boise State moved up to D-IA at the same time. The Wolfpack have not been as successful as Boise State. But most other programs that moved up in the mid-90s wish that they were as successful as Nevada. Chris Ault has produced a consistent winner in Reno. The Wolfpack have been the only program to challenge Utah State's dominance of the WAC on the hardwood.
Another item college presidents consider is market size. After all, Football and Basketball are revenue generating sports which should fund the rest of the athletic program. After all, nearly all of these student-athletes will go pro in something other than sports. If Fresno State were to join the Mountain West as the 10th team, Fresno would be the third-largest metro in the conference. Boise State as the 10th member would be 6th out of ten. And Nevada would also be 6th of ten.
There are also facilities, but all three schools have adequate facilities and all are spending money on improvements. This is an important factor in recruiting quality athletes. Some schools in the MWC, such as Colorado State, are doing scant little, if anything to improve theirs.
There are other colleges the MWC can add instead of these three. There are five schools in the Texas/Oklahoma area that would jump to the MWC as C-USA has turned out not to be such a strong conference. These schools are: Houston, Rice, SMU, Tulsa and UTEP. Four of these five schools were once members of the WAC. And they are geographically aligned with the MWC. Houston is the strongest potential addition of them all. They are in a very large metro area, have good facilities, a strong academic program with doctoral degrees and provide access to a bowl game and major league-type facilities. Houston only has Texas A&M to compete with. Houston is large enough for both, and could experience TCU-like success. I also like what June Jones has done at SMU. Perhaps the Mustangs can finally look toward the future instead of the failures of the past.
What about San Jose State and Hawaii? The lack of facility upgrades chased June Jones away from Honolulu. The Spartans have similar issues in addition to playing in the shadow of Stanford and California.
If the Mountain West Conference is to expand, they should go to 12 and this is the criteria of ten points that the trio of new schools collectively need to meet.
1. They must guarantee the MWC will have an automatic BCS bowl bid, or help in the cause.
2. They must add a fourth bid to the NCAA men's and women's tournament.
3. They must help make the MWC a regular at the College World Series.
4. They must add to the quality of the conference in non-revenue sports.
5. They must have modern facilities and working to make improvements.
6. They must add to the recruiting base of the conference.
7. They must add to possibility of getting a new, favorable TV contract.
8. They must not add significantly to the travel requirements of the conference.
9. They must add something positive to the academic reputation of the conference.
10. They must be compliant with NCAA regulations, including being free of non-qualifying athletes.
Pluses:
-Major League Market and facilities.
-Bowl Game
Do you think that Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada will do all of that? Let's take a look.
Boise State:
Yes on 1, 4, 5, 8 and 10 with 1 plus.
Fresno State
Yes on 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10
Nevada
Yes on 2, 4, 5 and 8
My conclusion is that this trio is not strong enough to make the MWC-12 a major conference. There is one change that could:
Instead of Nevada
Houston
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 with 2 pluses
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