Why SMU rules and Boise State drools in the PAC-12 Expansion rumors.

 The PAC-12 appears to be getting back to 12 with the addition of Southern Methodist and San Diego State.

Originally, the idea was that the PAC-12 would not add new schools whiteout a new media deal.  However, it appears that the media partners of the PAC-12 conference want the expansion before the deal, or the two go hand in hand.  It is also clear that the new media deal is based upon market size. Based upon recent athletic performance, this does not make sense.  However, we are talking about media dollars, and that is the most important thing.

The math checks out.

Let's face it, you do not lose the entire Los Angeles metro area and try to make it up by adding a market approximately 4% of the size.  SMU doesn't own Dallas, and really no college does.  But they are a presence there.  In the early 80's, SMU was big enough to share Texas Stadium with the Cowboys.  San Diego and Dallas together are still smaller than LA, but in adding these markets, you are making up almost 2/3 of the iPhones lost when USC and UCLA left for the Big 10.

Why not Boise State? 

Trouble is, Boise State has put a lot of money and effort into building a top tier sports program.  Boise is an isolated city that doesn't have a lot of sports and entertainment options.  Even the NBA G-League has abandoned the Treasure Valley.  They lost their A-level minor league team.  All they have occupying their sports venues is a tier-3 minor league hockey team.  Not a lot of love for one of the fastest growing cities in the US.

The market in Boise has some growing to do.  The Boise Area has the same population Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo combined had in the 1970s.  When the ABA folded, all Utah had was minor league baseball and hockey.  But they did have the Cougars and the Utes.  The PAC-12 wasn't going to add Utah in the 1970s, when Maricopa County had nearly twice the population and was growing faster.  Boise State is in the same position Utah was in those days.  They were a good choice, there were better choices.  Utah's day came about 40 year later.  If college sports still exists in 40 years, Boise State will be in a good position.

It's not over for Boise yet.  The PAC-12 may not be done and the Big 12 may not be done either.  Boise State CAN play with the big boys.  They do so every season.  I suggest some patience for those who follow the Blue.  Your time will eventually come if it does not come tomorrow.

What is next for the MWC?  That will come in a later post.