The City and Metro Area of Las Vegas, Nevada. If sports folks on YouTube and other places are to be believed, it will soon be the home of all 5 major sports leagues. The problem is not the money to build. Las Vegas is torn down and rebuilt every couple of decades. The problem is the fans. Las Vegas is the 33rd largest metro or CSA in the United States.
The smallest CSA in the US with all five major sports is Denver. Denver has 3.6 million people compared with 2.3 million in Las Vegas. The Denver sports teams have had varying levels of success and support throughout the years, we can probably look to Denver to get an idea of how successful other teams will be in Las Vegas.
Comparing Apples to Apples
Football
In percentage of seats sold, the Denver Broncos were 14th in the league selling 99.8% of the seats available at Empower Field at Mile High. They averaged 75,980 out of a capacity of 76,125. The Broncos were 5-12 in 2022, last in the AFC west. When your team stinks, you have trouble selling tickets. Normally, the Broncos are at the top of the league, with SRO crowds being the norm. While the Raiders had better results, they did not sell as well. In percentage, the Raiders were 26th out of 32 in attendance as a percentage of seats sold. The average was 62,045 out of 65,000. Frankly, outside of the Washington Commanders, no NFL team is really struggling in attendance, but it is easier to get tickets to see the Raiders than it is to see Broncos, even if the Broncos play outside, in a cold weather city, and have a worse team.
The Broncos are Denver's team. They belong to the Front Range more than anyone else. They were the first big league team in town and were there a few years before the Nuggets, but a long time before the Rockies, Avalanche and Rapids. That's why they do well, even in cold weather.
Hockey
The Colorado Avalanche are the defending Stanley Cup Champions. But that defense is not going well. Hockey has parity. It is the most difficult sport to repeat as champions. The Avalanche are averaging 17,922 fans per game in an arena that hold 18,000. Not bad for a 4th place team. The Golden Knights are in first place in their division. They are averaging 17,985 in an arena that holds 17,637. This means that there are usually 250 or so fans in the arena without a seat. Not bad. But this is simple economics or is it. The Avalanche are competing with the Denver Nuggets who have the best record in the Western Conference and appear to be heading to the NBA finals for the first time in team history (and its a long history.) In terms of percentage the Nuggets are 13th in the league.
The difference between the Avalanche and the Knights? Not much in terms of attendance. The Knights are doing better. The Knights have the first team in town advantage. They were an expansion team. They have only belonged to Las Vegas. The Raiders moved to town and were Oakland's team. Generally, expansion teams do better than moved teams. Generally, the first team in town tends to own the city. These are probably two reasons why the Knights do better than the Avalanche at the gate. Las Vegas is a Hockey town because Hockey was there first.
How will the other sports do?
Baseball
I have concerns about the A's moving to Las Vegas. First of all, it is taking a long, long time to happen. If it happens, the A's still have two more seasons in Oakland. Then, coming to Vegas, the new stadium will not likely be ready. They will have to use either Cashman field or Las Vegas Ballpark for at least 1 season, with a lot of temporary seats added. The Aviators, the AAA team averaged just under 7,000 per game in a stadium with 10,000 seats. Las Vegas is in the middle of the Mojave Desert, which means the days and nights are hot and dry. In July, the days get above 100 and it rarely gets below 80 at night. This will make games, even after dark, uncomfortable.
The problem they will have if the A's move to Vegas is that it will still have the same owners and managers of a team that hasn't had a lot of success on the field since the Clinton Administration. One of the reasons they do so poorly on Oakland is the product on the field is less than great. Moving to Las Vegas will not suddenly produce a pennant winner. While a new stadium will likely see large crowds at first, if they fortunes of the team do no turn around, the crowds will stop coming.
My conclusion is that the A's will struggle in Las Vegas. If I were the A's, I would be looking no farther than Sacramento for a new home. If you have to put a MLB team in Vegas, the stadium needs to have a roof. The Colorado Rockies, even though they have not done well on the field, are in the top 10 in attendance year after year.
Basketball
The NBA will likely expand. Seattle should be at the top of the list. Many are guessing Las Vegas for the second team, as the NBA will likely expand by two. But Las Vegas isn't the only contender. San Diego, Anaheim, St. Louis, New Jersey, Tampa, Pittsburgh, Austin, Nashville, Kansas City, Louisville and Norfolk, Virginia are also contenders for a new NBA team. Seven of those cities (Anaheim, St. Louis, Tampa, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Nashville and Kansas City) already have an arena. Five of those have a larger population. A Las Vegas NBA team would likely play at T Mobile arena or the Thomas and Mack Center for a couple of seasons.
They main problem an NBA team would have is that the Golden Knights were there first, and they would be the main competition for tickets, especially if the Knights continue to do well and an NBA expansion team struggles on the court. The NBA is not like the NHL. The NBA does not have parity. Inertia is much harder to beat. LV would likely see years of draft picks come and go before they even make the playoffs. Strong attendance at first would likely drop off. No team in the NBA is really struggling at the gate, 5 teams are below 90% in attendance. The smaller market teams also struggle for success. The Milwaukee Bucks are the only small market team to win a championship in the last 45 years.
My conclusion is that the NBA will struggle in Las Vegas and may not even last long enough to get their own arena. I would consider a 3rd team in LA (Anaheim) as they have the population to support it. If you put a team in Vegas, share T-Mobile with the Knight without planning your own venue. That will guarantee no direct competition.
The Utah Jazz are now a team that succeeds at the gate even without the results on the court. If you can't win a championship, at least figure out how to get some players that are fun to watch.
Soccer
Major League Soccer is looking for a replacement for the pandemic-derailed expansion team that was going to be in Sacramento. San Diego and Las Vegas are the contenders. San Diego has a lot of advantages over Vegas, including Snapdragon Stadium, which is more intimate for soccer. They do not have an NFL team to compete against. A Vegas team would likely play at Allegiant Stadium. An NFL stadium has worked for two teams, the Seattle Sounders and Atlanta United. Both teams were successful on the field right away, which is possible in soccer. It must be said that playing in an NFL stadium has not really worked for the New England Revolution or the Chicago Fire, but the Revs have done better in recent years.
I would expect the MLS to do well in Vegas as the city has a very high Hispanic population. If San Diego is chosen, Vegas will probably be in the next round of expansion as the league pushes to 32 teams.
Even though it's been a few years since the team has been won a championship, Real Salt Lake still manages to get fans in the stadium.
No comments:
Post a Comment