Is the PAC-12 Finished?

 No.  The PAC-12 is not finished. At least I don't think it is. But the ten remaining schools find themselves at a crossroads.  While traditional cable may be on its way out, ESPN and other services are not going away, there are changes and uncertainty.  All this comes as the PAC-12 loses its biggest loses its biggest market to the Big10.

But I believe that one big issue is the gap between wants and reality.  I think we have all been there.  Get laid off from a well-paying job and then you are forced to take a job with lower pay.  To put in in Hollywood terms, you were going to film with Tom Hanks and Jennifer Lawrence.  But now they have dropped out for other projects.  The financial backers of the film are willing to move forward with Jeremy Renner and Melissa Rauch, but they don't want to front as much cash.  The whole project is at danger of falling apart.

It should also be considered that those remaining in the PAC-12 at this time may not be as valuable to other conferences as USC and UCLA were to the Big 10.  But it is really had to pick truth from fantasy.  However, it appears that the ultimate goal is to pick apart the PAC-12, ACC and Big 12 until there are only two big conferences left.  If that happens, is it really conferences who will suffer?  Will it be fans?  It will probably be the student athletes.  Fewer conferences will eventually lead to fewer choices and fewer opportunities, especially for talented young men and women for whom a nearly free college education is a chance they will never otherwise have.

That is why I hope the PAC-12 survives in some form.

Las Vegas with All 5 Sports? That's Crazy Talk.

The City and Metro Area of Las Vegas, Nevada.  If sports folks on YouTube and other places are to be believed, it will soon be the home of all 5 major sports leagues.  The problem is not the money to build.  Las Vegas is torn down and rebuilt every couple of decades.  The problem is the fans.  Las Vegas is the 33rd largest metro or CSA in the United States.

The smallest CSA in the US with all five major sports is Denver.  Denver has 3.6 million people compared with 2.3 million in Las Vegas.  The Denver sports teams have had varying levels of success and support throughout the years, we can probably look to Denver to get an idea of how successful other teams will be in Las Vegas.

Comparing Apples to Apples

Football

In percentage of seats sold, the Denver Broncos were 14th in the league selling 99.8% of the seats available at Empower Field at Mile High.  They averaged 75,980 out of a capacity of 76,125.  The Broncos were 5-12 in 2022, last in the AFC west.  When your team stinks, you have trouble selling tickets.  Normally, the Broncos are at the top of the league, with SRO crowds being the norm.  While the Raiders had better results, they did not sell as well.  In percentage, the Raiders were 26th out of 32 in attendance as a percentage of seats sold.  The average was 62,045 out of 65,000.  Frankly, outside of the Washington Commanders, no NFL team is really struggling in attendance, but it is easier to get tickets to see the Raiders than it is to see Broncos, even if the Broncos play outside, in a cold weather city, and have a worse team.

The Broncos are Denver's team.  They belong to the Front Range more than anyone else.  They were the first big league team in town and were there a few years before the Nuggets, but a long time before the Rockies, Avalanche and Rapids.  That's why they do well, even in cold weather.

Hockey

The Colorado Avalanche are the defending Stanley Cup Champions.  But that defense is not going well.  Hockey has parity.  It is the most difficult sport to repeat as champions.  The Avalanche are averaging 17,922 fans per game in an arena that hold 18,000.  Not bad for a 4th place team.  The Golden Knights are in first place in their division.  They are averaging 17,985 in an arena that holds 17,637.  This means that there are usually 250 or so fans in the arena without a seat.  Not bad.  But this is simple economics or is it.  The Avalanche are competing with the Denver Nuggets who have the best record in the Western Conference and appear to be heading to the NBA finals for the first time in team history (and its a long history.)  In terms of percentage the Nuggets are 13th in the league.

The difference between the Avalanche and the Knights?  Not much in terms of attendance.  The Knights are doing better. The Knights have the first team in town advantage.  They were an expansion team.  They have only belonged to Las Vegas.  The Raiders moved to town and were Oakland's team.  Generally, expansion teams do better than moved teams.  Generally, the first team in town tends to own the city.  These are probably two reasons why the Knights do better than the Avalanche at the gate.  Las Vegas is a Hockey town because Hockey was there first.

How will the other sports do?

Baseball

I have concerns about the A's moving to Las Vegas.  First of all, it is taking a long, long time to happen.  If it happens, the A's still have two more seasons in Oakland.  Then, coming to Vegas, the new stadium will not likely be ready.  They will have to use either Cashman field or Las Vegas Ballpark for at least 1 season, with a lot of temporary seats added.  The Aviators, the AAA team averaged just under 7,000 per game in a stadium with 10,000 seats.  Las Vegas is in the middle of the Mojave Desert, which means the days and nights are hot and dry.  In July, the days get above 100 and it rarely gets below 80 at night.  This will make games, even after dark, uncomfortable.

The problem they will have if the A's move to Vegas is that it will still have the same owners and managers of a team that hasn't had a lot of success on the field since the Clinton Administration.  One of the reasons they do so poorly on Oakland is the product on the field is less than great.  Moving to Las Vegas will not suddenly produce a pennant winner.  While a new stadium will likely see large crowds at first, if they fortunes of the team do no turn around, the crowds will stop coming.  

My conclusion is that the A's will struggle in Las Vegas.  If I were the A's, I would be looking no farther than Sacramento for a new home.  If you have to put a MLB team in Vegas, the stadium needs to have a roof.  The Colorado Rockies, even though they have not done well on the field, are in the top 10 in attendance year after year.

Basketball

The NBA will likely expand.  Seattle should be at the top of the list.  Many are guessing Las Vegas for the second team, as the NBA will likely expand by two.  But Las Vegas isn't the only contender.  San Diego, Anaheim, St. Louis, New Jersey, Tampa, Pittsburgh, Austin, Nashville, Kansas City, Louisville and Norfolk, Virginia are also contenders for a new NBA team.  Seven of those cities (Anaheim, St. Louis, Tampa, Pittsburgh, New Jersey, Nashville and Kansas City) already have an arena.  Five of those have a larger population.  A Las Vegas NBA team would likely play at T Mobile arena or the Thomas and Mack Center for a couple of seasons.

They main problem an NBA team would have is that the Golden Knights were there first, and they would be the main competition for tickets, especially if the Knights continue to do well and an NBA expansion team struggles on the court.  The NBA is not like the NHL.  The NBA does not have parity.  Inertia is much harder to beat.  LV would likely see years of draft picks come and go before they even make the playoffs.  Strong attendance at first would likely drop off.  No team in the NBA is really struggling at the gate, 5 teams are below 90% in attendance.  The smaller market teams also struggle for success.  The Milwaukee Bucks are the only small market team to win a championship in the last 45 years.

My conclusion is that the NBA will struggle in Las Vegas and may not even last long enough to get their own arena.  I would consider a 3rd team in LA (Anaheim) as they have the population to support it.  If you put a team in Vegas, share T-Mobile with the Knight without planning your own venue.  That will guarantee no direct competition.

The Utah Jazz are now a team that succeeds at the gate even without the results on the court.  If you can't win a championship, at least figure out how to get some players that are fun to watch.

Soccer

Major League Soccer is looking for a replacement for the pandemic-derailed expansion team that was going to be in Sacramento.  San Diego and Las Vegas are the contenders.  San Diego has a lot of advantages over Vegas, including Snapdragon Stadium, which is more intimate for soccer.  They do not have an NFL team to compete against.  A Vegas team would likely play at Allegiant Stadium.  An NFL stadium has worked for two teams, the Seattle Sounders and Atlanta United.  Both teams were successful on the field right away, which is possible in soccer.  It must be said that playing in an NFL stadium has not really worked for the New England Revolution or the Chicago Fire, but the Revs have done better in recent years. 

I would expect the MLS to do well in Vegas as the city has a very high Hispanic population.  If San Diego is chosen, Vegas will probably be in the next round of expansion as the league pushes to 32 teams.

Even though it's been a few years since the team has been won a championship, Real Salt Lake still manages to get fans in the stadium.

How the Mountain West might expand

With the PAC-12 looking for replacements for USC and UCLA, and possible further expansion of the Big 12, it appears that a decimation of the MWC is inevitable.  I think the MWC will eventually lose 4 or 5 schools, but what ends up happening is still in process and changes every day. 

I was a proponent of the Mountain West adding UTSA before the American did.  That was two years ago.  But, who listens. Now who is going to leave the American for the Mountain?  Probably no one.  Sometimes you pay the price when you are not proactive. Proactivity is not the MWC DNA, a trait they learned from the PAC-12.  If it was, Boise State and Fresno State would have been added years before Utah, BYU and TCU left when everyone else was at 12 schools

I know some snarky commenter is going to say, the New Mountain West will include Stanford, California, Oregon State and Washington State after the PAC-12 collapses.  That the MW will have nothing to fret about.  I will eat a bag of kale chips if that happens.  It probably won't. Someone will figure out how work it out.

I don't have access to the same analytics that the real MWC would have access to.  I spent an entire home sick day figuring this out.

My analysis included the following: Market size, facilities, football, men's basketball, women's and Olympic sports, academic reputation based upon US News and World Report, and weather or not they play in the shadow of larger programs.  I did not consider any college that resides in a city of less than 100,000.  I was surprised by the final outcome.  Here it is.

The Top 4 prospects for expansion

1. University of Texas at El Paso.  Surprised?  I'm not.  UTEP is a natural fit for the MWC and arguably should have been included when the conference first formed. They have a history in Men's Basketball and Track and Field.  It is tough to beat six national championships, which their track and field team boasts.  The Front Range 4 of the Mountain West Conference (Air Force, Colorado State, New Mexico and Wyoming) have rivalries with UTEP going back to the old WAC days.  New Mexico even longer.  UTEP is isolated for the rest of Texas and is not likely to be in the shadow of the big schools in the state: Texas, Texas A&M, etc.  These school rarely go all the way to El Paso to recruit.  The biggest threat from the Power 5 in El Paso, is Arizona, which is much closer than any of the big Texas schools. Oh yea, the Sun Bowl is in El Paso. There are two things that drag UTEP down. First, they are in a smaller market, but at a little short of 1 million, it's larger than most on this list.  The second is that their academic reputation is less than stellar.  The second they can fix.  Overall, if the Mountain West only adds one school, UTEP is the logical first choice.

The main arguments against UTEP are two-fold.   First, while they have a great history, their present is lack-luster.  They may make bowl games, but they are rarely a top-25 program.  Even in their more storied basketball and track programs, their success was decades ago.  While their distance from the rest of Texas keeps them out of the shadow of Texas A&M and Texas and other such schools, it also isolates them for the sweet, sweet recruiting base that is most of Texas.  Therefore, they offer no recruiting advantages.  But considering all other things, UTEP is the best option for the Mountain West Conference.

2. University of Montana.  In addition to being among the athletic elites in the Big Sky Conference, Montana is a good academic school, which attracts a nationwide if not world-wide student body.  Their facilities are already FBS ready, and they regularly sell out the 25,000 seat Washington-Grizzly Stadium.  They have been regulars in the NCAA tourney, making 12 appearance. Not too shabby, but second to Weber State.  They fit naturally in the geography of the Mountain West Conference.  Montana's athletic director has said publicly that they are not interested in a move to the FBS at this time, but under the right circumstances, in a situation where they could succeed, don't count on them saying no.  No doubt the Grizzlies are a good fit for the Mountain West.  The biggest weakness is the smaller market and the distance of Missoula from other large cities in the State of Montana.  Given it's academics and tradition of excellence, Montana is a great choice for the Mountain West.

It has also been said that Montana will not join another conference without Montana State.  That was their excuse for not joining the WAC 13 years ago.  That may not be true today.  The Brawl of the Wild could still happen.  That would also not prohibit Montana State form having another cash grab game against another FBS school, but that would prohibit Montana from playing another FCS school  That would complicate the rivalry.  The real reason was likely that Montana would not have made enough money joining a WAC made up of mostly other Big Sky rivals.  That money would not have been there for them at the time.  It was the right decision for them to remain in the Big Sky Conference then.  But what is different now?  Boise State doesn't seem to be getting interest from the PAC-12 or Big 12.  It also seems as if Air Force, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, Utah State and Wyoming will remain in the Mountain West forever.  That may make the money equation better.

3. Sacramento State.  This is probably a surprise to most readers, but not a surprise to me.  Sacramento, while not quite the population of San Diego comes close. California's capitol city is the 2nd largest metro without an FBS football program.  Sacramento State has a stellar academic program, like most schools in California.  They have an FBS-ready stadium, which means they will not have to expand to move up.  Their success on the gridiron is a recent phenomenon, they have been successful in some Olympic sports, especially track and field.  While they are close geographically to California and Stanford, those schools have been so poor on in football in recent years, there is an opportunity to strike and gain some recruiting advantages.  Their biggest weakness is a lack NCAA men's basketball tournament appearances and their small basketball arena, one that not even Air Force would be jealous of.  They would need to pay more attention to the basketball program if they join the MWC.  They may have to work out a scheduling agreement with the Kings for use of the Golden 1 Center for some games.  Despite lack of success in on the basketball court, markets are going to rule the day.  Sacramento is an untapped market at the FBS level and that makes Sacramento State a solid choice, but probably not a top choice.

4.  Weber State University.  This is a surprise.  Please forget about my affiliation to WSU.  I am an alum.  I tried not to let my bias influence my analysis.  But hear me out.  The Wildcats are a basketball power and most teams dread a trip to the Purple Palace.  In basketball WSU has 23 Big Sky Conference championships, 16 NCAA appearances, twice advancing to the Sweet 16.  Their Alumni include Damian Lillard, Bruce Collins, Willie Sorjourner and Wat Mikasa.  Their basketball resume is as good as anyone currently in the MWC.  They have taken steps to keep things interesting before basketball season begins. They have been to the NCAA playoffs 6 of the past 7 seasons. There are upgrades in process to Stuart Stadium, which seats about 17,000.  They have grown to one of the largest campuses in the west, giving them a large alumni base.  Their biggest strike against them very large shadow of Utah and BYU.  And there is one other elephant in the room to discuss.

My original analysis has them at #2, but I had to bring them down a little.  Many readers will say that Utah State would block Weber State going into the Mountain West.  How would USU do that other than to convince the other members of the conference to vote against them?  Like every other school in the state, USU has only one vote on the board of regents.  That would be no avenue except as a symbolic gesture.  If Weber State has a good case to join, USU's objection would only be a symbolic voice.  I don't think USU could block Weber State even if they wanted to.  But do they have to?

Utah State is located in Logan, which is not part of the Greater Salt Lake Combined Statistical area.  When traveling to Logan, you rarely fly directly there.  Go to Expedia and see where it takes you?  That is right, to Salt Lake City.  The drive from Salt Lake City to Logan goes through Ogden.  Logan isn't large enough to employ a large share of Utah State's alumni. Most find jobs in Salt Lake.  Utah State already provides access to the Salt Lake media market.  And therefore, the MWC already has access to the rich Salt Lake recruiting base. Therefore, Weber State would not provide an additional market or recruiting base to Mountain West Schools that they don't already have.  It's an Oz/Tin Man argument, similar to the PAC-12 adding BYU or Colorado State or the Big 12 adding Rice or the Big 10 adding Pitt.  Utah State doesn't have to block Weber State. Their location is already an argument against it. Even so, there are advantages to having two schools close to each other.  The MW used to have BYU and Utah.  The WAC used to have both TCU and SMU.  Wyoming and Colorado State are close to each other.  For road trips in some sports, you can visit both schools the same weekend and stay in the same hotel, cutting down on travel expenses and travel fatigue.

Even if you only count Ogden/Layton by itself, this would still be the third largest market I considered.  (Except for some basketball-only schools)  Here you also have a proven ability to succeed consistently at the FCS level, and a large alumni base.  It has also the community support to succeed at a higher level.  Weber State may not be a top choice, but they are a solid one.  They haven't switch conferences in my lifetime and would probably bring stability as well.

The next four best targets 

5. University of California at Davis.  UCD is also in the Sacramento area.  They reason they are lower than Sacramento State is because their football stadium only seats 10,000.  While it is expandable to over 20,000, it will take some cash to do it.  It would be much cheaper than building anew, but it would not be free.  At least they have a better basketball arena than Sacramento State.  But have also been mostly a no-show in the NCAA tournament.  2016-17 is the answer to this trivial pursuit question. That is UCD's one and only NCAA men's basketball tournament appearance. Otherwise, they are very equal to Sacramento State, including academic.  In many books, perhaps slightly better.  If one of the other schools higher on this list does not want to join the MWC, then UCD is a solid choice.  Plus you get the two schools in the same market travel cost advantage if you also add Sacramento State.

6. New Mexico State.  They are lower on this list for two reasons.  One is that their academic reputation is not quite up to others on this list.  The other is that the recent hazing scandal will likely be the most brutal penalty on a school since the SMU death penalty.  This one self-imposed.  The Aggies have a good basketball history, too.  In football, two bowl games in the past five seasons is nothing to sneeze at.  That as an independent after the Sun Belt decided that it was too costly to keep Idaho and NMSU.  But today, they are members of Conference USA with their arch-rival UTEP and no longer independent in football and a member of the WAC in other sports.  They should get extra credit for lasting that long in independence.  They should be a force in Conference USA.   Technically Las Cruces is in the El Paso metro, the MWC is unlikely to add both.  As a side note, it would be funny if the MWC adds UC Davis and NMSU to the conference, you would have three schools who call themselves Aggies.  One a bull, one a horse and one a cowboy.  New Mexico State was likely the school that kept the WAC alive after the last round of conference expansion.

7. Eastern Washington.  There are two reasons why EWU is lower on this list.  First is Spokane and the 2nd is Gonzaga.  The Zags do not play football, which gives the Eagles a chance at recruiting in football locally.  (If Gonzaga kept football, EWU wouldn't be in the Big Sky Conference.)  While the Eagles have recently held their own on the court, but still not the power that the Zags are.  EWU has only three NCAA tournament appearances.  It should have been 4 but  they didn't survive this year's Big Sky Tournament.  It is what has happened on the turf at Roos Field that makes them special.  There are already plans afoot to expand the stadium to 18,000+.  If a school wants the MWC, they are trying to make a case for it.  But that was announced 10 years ago and it has yet to happen.  It can happen to an FCS school without FBS money, just look at Montana and Montana State.  Some things take cash and sometimes raising enough cash takes time, especially when a pandemic is afoot.  Would the prospects of moving up put some urgency into the alumni base and community?  That remains to be seen.

8.  North Dakota State.  They are the Alabama of the FCS, why are they not higher on my list?  Yes, they are in a small market, but Fargo is larger than Missoula.  They play in the 25,000 seat Fargodome, which is probably the nicest FCS facility.  But three big issues where Montana is a solid choice and NDSU is a weaker choice.  First, they have 4 NCAA men's tournament appearances compared to Montana's 12.  NDSU has never advanced to the Sweet 16.  Second, their academics are a tier lower than Montana.  While yes, they are in a larger market than Montana, Fargo is not so much larger than Missoula where it would make up the difference when it comes to media market options, NIL and recruiting.  NDSU can't do much about the market size, they can work on the academics and work on sports other than football.  But on the plus side, they have shown Idaho how to use a dome, and they don't play basketball there.

I previously wrote a post about non-football schools that could add football and be of value to the Mountain West Conference, they would all be below North Dakota State.  If the MW loses four or more schools, I will also write a post about basketball-only schools.

Not making the cut, but considered

Portland State University.  PSU is in the largest market not only in the west, but in the entire country that does not have at least one FBS school nearby.  Oregon State and Oregon are as close to Portland as Baltimore is to Philly.  You can't really count Corvallis and Eugene as being in the Portland metro.  But, a lot of grads from Oregon and Oregon State find jobs after graduation in Portland.  This is not the reason why.  

The largest problem is no on-campus football field and a smaller basketball arena.  They no longer share a stadium with the Portland Timbers of Major League Soccer.  That hasn't been a thing for years.  Lately, they have been playing about 20 miles away in Hillsboro.  PSU also lacks any sort of athletic reputation.  Sure, it wasn't long ago that they were a Division II school.  But most colleges that are serious about athletics are more successful once they move up.  If Portland State took athletics seriously, they would have better facilities, closer to campus.  Perhaps the Timbers would let them move back to Providence Park (fat chance of that happening.) and the Blazers would let them play some games at Moda Arena (chances are only slightly better.)  But the school simply doesn't put a premium price on sports.  That's OK.  It's still a good school.  I may have a future post about gridiron football vs. Major League Soccer and why more colleges don't play in NBA arenas and visa versa.  Portland State will be the poster child.

California Polytechnic University at San Luis Obispo.  Alex G. Spanos Stadium is one of the nicest facilities at the FCS level, and would likely easily be expandable to 30,000.  But SLO brags about being halfway between Los Angeles and San Francisco, which really means they are in the middle of nowhere.  LA and City by the bay are not exactly next-door neighbors.  I also didn't consider any schools in towns less than 100,000.  I had to draw the line somewhere.  SLO simply fell below the line.  Too bad, its a nice town.  It would be a great place for a bowl game.  But you are not going to land a big media deal by adding SLO when you already have Laramie.  There are only so many small towns a FBS conference can have.  The MWC already has enough.

Montana State.  Pretty much the same argument as Cal Poly, only its colder there.  Good school, nice town, great spot for a summer vacation, just too small and too far away from something better.  If Billings were 100 miles closer, then maybe.  But at least the fishing in Bozeman is good.  I should note that Bozeman is a growing town, and a place to consider living if your job and the job of your significant other is 100% remote and likely to state that way.  That is, if you don't mind enduring those Southern Montana winters.

Other possibilities, but not written about in this post include: Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa and Louisiana Tech.  Geography will prevent them from poaching more of Conference USA or the Sun Belt.

Why SMU rules and Boise State drools in the PAC-12 Expansion rumors.

 The PAC-12 appears to be getting back to 12 with the addition of Southern Methodist and San Diego State.

Originally, the idea was that the PAC-12 would not add new schools whiteout a new media deal.  However, it appears that the media partners of the PAC-12 conference want the expansion before the deal, or the two go hand in hand.  It is also clear that the new media deal is based upon market size. Based upon recent athletic performance, this does not make sense.  However, we are talking about media dollars, and that is the most important thing.

The math checks out.

Let's face it, you do not lose the entire Los Angeles metro area and try to make it up by adding a market approximately 4% of the size.  SMU doesn't own Dallas, and really no college does.  But they are a presence there.  In the early 80's, SMU was big enough to share Texas Stadium with the Cowboys.  San Diego and Dallas together are still smaller than LA, but in adding these markets, you are making up almost 2/3 of the iPhones lost when USC and UCLA left for the Big 10.

Why not Boise State? 

Trouble is, Boise State has put a lot of money and effort into building a top tier sports program.  Boise is an isolated city that doesn't have a lot of sports and entertainment options.  Even the NBA G-League has abandoned the Treasure Valley.  They lost their A-level minor league team.  All they have occupying their sports venues is a tier-3 minor league hockey team.  Not a lot of love for one of the fastest growing cities in the US.

The market in Boise has some growing to do.  The Boise Area has the same population Salt Lake/Ogden/Provo combined had in the 1970s.  When the ABA folded, all Utah had was minor league baseball and hockey.  But they did have the Cougars and the Utes.  The PAC-12 wasn't going to add Utah in the 1970s, when Maricopa County had nearly twice the population and was growing faster.  Boise State is in the same position Utah was in those days.  They were a good choice, there were better choices.  Utah's day came about 40 year later.  If college sports still exists in 40 years, Boise State will be in a good position.

It's not over for Boise yet.  The PAC-12 may not be done and the Big 12 may not be done either.  Boise State CAN play with the big boys.  They do so every season.  I suggest some patience for those who follow the Blue.  Your time will eventually come if it does not come tomorrow.

What is next for the MWC?  That will come in a later post.

The Eight Metro Areas that are Jealous About the A's Leaving Oakland for Las Vegas

There are seven Combined Statistical Areas that have a larger population than Las Vegas with sports fans frustrated that the Oakland Athletics appear to be headed for Sin City.  First, lets talk about Las Vegas to understand why.  When we talk about major sports franchises we are talking about the 4 major sports leagues in the United States: Major League Baseball, National Hockey League, National Football League, National Basketball Association and Major League soccer.

Las Vegas has a population of 2.3 million people.  They have a cost of living that is 103% or 3% higher than the national average.  Their average household income is roughly 61,000 per year, compared to the national household income of 54,000 per year.  Las Vegas has two major sports franchises, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Vegas Golden Knights.  Both play in relatively new stadia.  There are five cities smaller than Las Vegas with two sports franchises: Cincinnati, Nashville, Milwaukee, New Orleans and Buffalo.  The smallest city, so far, with 3 or more major sports teams is Pittsburgh with 3 of the 5.  The smallest city with Baseball is Milwaukee.  The AAA Las Vegas Aviators play at Summerlin South which seats 10,000 and can be used as a temporary home.  Vegas has grown by 1.25% since the 2020 census.  The closest Major League Baseball teams to Vegas are the Los Angels Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels.  LA is approximately a 4 hour drive to Los Vegas.

Here are eight cities that are currently larger than Las Vegas in Population and are possibly just as deserving as Las Vegas for the location of a major league baseball franchise.

8. Indianapolis, Indiana has a population of 2.5 million people.  Their cost of living is 84% of the national average.  Their household income is 61,000 per year.  This means that an Indianapolis family has more disposable income than a Las Vegas family.  They have two major league franchises, the Colts of the NFL and the Pacers of the NBA.  The Colts play in the 14-year-old Lucas Oil Stadium, which is about halfway through it's life, the Pacers play in the 24-year-old Gaimbridge Arena which is the 12th oldest in the NBA.  If baseball does move to Indiana soon, they will soon have to compete with the Pacers for stadium funds.  Indy has a AAA team, the Indians, who play at Victory Field which seats 13,750 people.  The site is large enough for the current stadium to expand for a Major League team.  Since the 2020 census, Indianapolis has grown by 0.62%, therefore it is not growing as fast as Las Vegas.  Vegas could grow to become larger than Indy before 2030.  The closest Major League Baseball franchise to Indy is the Cincinnati Reds at just over an hour away.  It is possible the Reds could block a move to Indianapolis, but not likely.  

7. Columbus, Ohio has a population of 2.5 million, but slightly larger than Indianapolis.  Their cost of living is 86%.  Their average household income is roughly 58,000 per year.  Likely skewed downward by Ohio State University students.  Columbians have less disposable income than Vegans.  Columbus has two major sports franchises, the Columbus Blue Jackets of the NHL and the Columbus Crew of Major League Soccer.  The Blue Jackets play in the 23-year-old Nationwide arena.  The Crew recently moved to new stadium in 2021.  The Columbus Clippers play in 10,100 seat Huntington Park which could be used as a temporary stadium, but is not on a large enough site to be expandable to Major League size.  Columbus has grown at 0.46% since the 2020 census.  Like Indy, Las Vegas' population will likely pass Columbus in the future.  The Cincinnati Reds are also the closest Major League Franchise to Columbus, at nearly two hours away.  Columbus is also near Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

6. San Antonio, Texas has a population of 2.6 million.  Their cost of living is 91% of the national average.  Their average household income is 55,000.  Theirs is skewed downward by the large military population.  San Antonio is home to only one major sports franchise, the San Antonio Spurs.  The AT&T Center was open in 2002.  The San Antonio Mission play AA ball at the Nelson W. Wolf Municipal Stadium, which has 6,200 seats and an outfield area that can seat 3,000 fans.  It is on a lot large enough to expand.  Major League baseball can't be played at the Alamodome as the right field fence would be too close to home plate.  San Antonio, Texas is the 2nd largest metro area in the United States with only one major sports franchise.  San Antonio is growing at a rate of 1.7% since the 2020 census  and is likely to remain larger than Las Vegas.  It is the fastest growing city on this list.  The closest Major League Franchise is the Houston Astros, about 3 hours away. 

5. Sacramento, California has a population of 2.7 million.  Their cost of living is 120% of the national average.  Their household income is a little over 71,000 which means that the average household has less money to spend on baseball.  Like San Antonio, there is only an NBA franchise in the city.   The Kings play in the Golden 1 Center, which has been operating since 2016.  There have been multiple efforts to lure the Athletics to the Capital City in the past, up to and including building the foundation of a major league park near the old Arco Arena where the Kings used to play.  There were once plans to promote the Sacramento Republic to Major League Soccer, but those plans fell through during the COVID-19 Pandemic.  Sacramento is home of the AAA River Cats who play in the 14,014 Seat Sutter Health Park, which is the 2nd largest AAA stadium.  (The largest we will talk about later.)  The stadium sits on a site large enough for a Major League Baseball stadium, but there is no room to expand the current stadium due to its location on the site.  Originally, I think there were plans to put a new arena at this location for the Kings, who ended up building at another site.  Sacramento's population is growing at 0.62%, but will likely remain larger than Las Vegas for a few decades.  Sacramento is the largest city in the United States to host only one major sports franchise.  Outside of the A's, the next closest franchise is the San Francisco Giants.  It is nearly 2 hours from Sacramento to San Francisco.  It is unlikely that the Giants would block moving the As to Sacramento.

4. Salt Lake City, Utah has a population of 2.7 million, but has recently surpassed Sacramento in population.  The cost of living is slightly higher than Las Vegas at 104% of the national average.  The average household income is around 64,000.  Salt Lake is home to two top-level sports franchises, the Jazz of the NBA and Real Salt Lake of Major League Soccer.  The Jazz play in the Delta Center, which seats 18,307 and currently the 3rd oldest arena in the NBA.  Real Salt Lake plays in the suburbs at America First Field in Sandy which seats 20,000.  It is the 5th-oldest soccer-specific stadium in Major League Soccer.  Salt Lake City hosts the AAA Salt Lake Bees whose home field has 14,511 seats and is the largest AAA stadium.  But the Bees will move to a new stadium in the Daybreak section of South Jordan, Utah.  The details of the new stadium have yet to be released, but the new site is large enough for a major league stadium.  Salt Lake City is growing at 1.67% since the 2020 census and is the 3rd fastest growing large city in the United States.  It is unlikely that Las Vegas will ever grow larger than Salt Lake.  When the Jazz first moved to Salt Lake City in 1979, it was in the smallest metro area to host a major sports franchise outside of Green Bay.  Now there are 12 major sports metros smaller than Salt Lake.  (Due to expansion, relocation and metro shrink as well as growth in Salt Lake.)  The closest Major League baseball franchise to Salt Lake City is the Colorado Rockies, but it is an 8 hour drive to get there making it the most isolated city on this list.*

3. Charlotte, North Carolina has a population of 2.8 million.  The cost of living is 97% of the national average with the average household income at 68,000, which translates to a similar disposable income level to Las Vegas.  Charlotte is the only city on this list with three major sports franchises; The Carolina Panthers, the Charlotte Hornets and Charlotte FC call Charlotte home.  The Panthers and Charlotte FC both play at Bank of America Stadium which is approaching 38 years in operation.  There are no plans for a new stadium for either brand of football.  The Spectrum Center for the Hornets has been in use since 2008.  There is a AAA baseball team in Charlotte, the Knights.  They play at 10,500 seat Truist Field, which is on the other side of the parking structure for the Panthers.  The site does not look big enough to support a Major League expansion, but a talented architect may make it work.  Charlotte has grown 1.51% since the 2020 census, the 4th fastest growing large city in the United States.  There are two US metro areas smaller than Charlotte with 3 sports franchises.   The closest Major League franchise to Charlotte is the Atlanta Braves, which will take nearly 4 hours to reach by car.

2. Portland, Oregon has a population of 3.3 million in the metro area.  The cost of living is 132% of the national average, the highest cost of living on this list.  The average household income is 78,000, which is also the highest on this list.  Portland is the home of the NBA's Trailblazers and MLS's Timbers.  The Blazers play in the Moda Center, their home since 1995.  The Timbers play at Providence Park which is someone near 100 years old, but one half of the stadium was built in 2019.  Sounds odd, but it is considered on of the best stadia in Major League Soccer.  There is A-level ball played in the Portland area.  Since the Timbers turned Providence Park into a soccer-only field, the AAA team moved to Albuquerque and became the Isotopes.  The Hillsboro Hops play at Ron Tonkin Field about 20 miles west of Portland.  The stadium has 4,500 seats.  The multi-use park is also the home of the Portland State Vikings football team.  Actually, the east side of the grandstand is for football, while the west side is the 3rd-base site of the baseball stadium.  But there is a pier on the Willamette River where a Major League Stadium could be built closer to downtown.  Portland is growing slowly, by 0.14% since the 2020 Census.  The nearest MLB team to Portland is the Seattle Mariners, which will take about 3 hours by car.

1. Orlando, Florida has a population of 4.3 million in the metro area.  Orlando has about the same cost of living as Las Vegas.  The average household income is around 59,000.  Orlando is the most populated metro area in the US that only has two major sports franchises, the Orlando Magic of the NBA and Orlando City SC of Major League Soccer.  The Magic play in Amway Center which has been around since 2010.  Exploria Stadium was built for Soccer and opened in 2017.  Orlando is the only metro on this list that does not have a minor league baseball team at any level.  But there are several teams that have spring training in central Florida with the Braves and Astros playing spring ball near Orlando.  The metro has grown at 1.65% since the 2020 Census, making it the second fastest growing large city in the United States.  While Orlando has a lot going for it, it is only an hour from St. Petersburg, home of the Tampa Bay Rays, making it the least isolated.  Between Orlando and Tampa, all five major sports leagues are represented.  With Tampa hosting Baseball, Football and Hockey.  Orlando is also the only city on this list with a real grass-roots effort to bring Major League baseball to town.  It is not likely, but possible the Rays organization would block an expansion team or a move to the Magic Kingdom.  Orlando is now larger than Denver and Minneapolis which have all five sports franchises.

Note: I did not put Austin, Nashville, Raleigh-Durham, Virginia Beach or Louisville on this list because they are smaller than Las Vegas.

*As Patman93 correctly points out, Seattle is currently the most isolated Major League team and will be unless Portland or Vancouver, Canada gets a franchise.