Dick Harmon had an interesting piece of work the the Deseret News on Saturday, claiming that if BYU was in a conference, either the Big 12 or the Mountain West, they would be in a BCS bowl this year. Well, BYU had their chance to be in a BCS bowl this year as an independent, and they did not get the job done. That point should have been obvious after Fresno State lost to San Jose State two weeks ago and Northern Illinois lost to Bowling Green this last week.
What Harmon speculated was what would have happened if BYU had been part of the Big 12. They did beat Texas, and beat them good. But BYU would have had trouble with Oklahoma State and Baylor and a win over Oklahoma would have depended on who had home field advantage. Then there would have also been questions about Texas Tech and TCU as well. At best, BYU finishes 3rd this year. At worst 7th.
But what would have happened if BYU had remained in the MWC? In my opinion, probably another trip to San Diego. But lets take a look. If BYU had remained, the MWC likely would have become a 14 team conference at the demise of the WAC which would lost too many members to Conference-USA to remain viable. I suspect the 14th team would have been UTEP, that seems the logical choice. Because BYU beat Boise State and Utah State handily, they likely would have won that division. But how about their non-conference schedule? Well, let's take a look, assuming a 14-team MWC plays a 9-game schedule.
Week 1--@ Virginia--Loss
Week 2--Texas--Win
Week 3--Air Force--Win
Week 4--Utah--Loss
Week 5--bye
Week 6--@ Utah State--Win
Week 7--UTEP (HC)--Win
Week 8--@ Wyoming--Win
Week 9--@ Nevada--Win
Week 10--Colorado State--Win
Week 11--@ New Mexico--Win
Week 12--bye
Week 13--@ UNLV--Win
Week 14--Boise State--Win
Likely, how the divisions would have finished.
Mountain Division
1. BYU
2. Utah State
3. Colorado State
4. Wyoming
5. UTEP
6. Air Force
7. New Mexico
West Division
1. Fresno State
2. Boise State
3. San Diego State
4. UNLV
5. San Jose State
6. Nevada
7. Hawaii
I won't go into the conference championship. There is little chance that a team from the MWC with two losses gets into a BCS game. Especially with such a weak schedule. If Fresno State and Northern Illinois can't do it with one loss, how can BYU do it with two? Especially if the teams that beat you finish with losing records. However, their odds were better as an independent as the schedule was more challenging, especially if they would have been able to get wins over Wisconsin and Notre Dame. BYU is likely no worse off in independence than they were as part of a this conference. BYU would have been playing Fresno State for the right to go to Las Vegas.
I don't see BYU playing for a national title this decade, but there will be one of the big-money bowls that rotates into the National Semi-finals that will have two at-large openings every season. BYU's goal next season should be to make it to that bowl, which in 2014/15 will be the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.
Fresno State 24 Utah State 17
USU POW: QB Darell Garrettson
Conference Players of the Week
FBS Independents--No games scheduled. Army/Navy next week
PAC-12--Stanford RB Tyler Gaffney
MWC--Fresno State QB Derek Carr
Big Sky--Eastern Washington RB Quincy Forte
Prediction for likely bowl destinations
PAC-12
1. Stanford--Rose
2. Oregon--Fiesta
3. Arizona State--Alamo
4. UCLA--Holiday
5. USC--Sun
6. Washington--Fight Hunger
7. Arizona--Las Vegas
8. Oregon State--New Mexico
9. Washington State--Poinsettia (At-Large)
What is actually happening? (7 hours later.)
Looks like Oklahoma will get the last BCS spot.
Stanford--Rose
Oregon--Alama
Arizona State--Holiday
UCLA--Sun
Washington--Fight Hunger
USC--Las Vegas
Washington State--New Mexico
Oregon State--Hawaii (At-Large)
Arizona--Independence (At-Large)
MWC
1. Fresno State--Las Vegas
2. Utah State--Poinsettia
3. Boise State--Hawaii
4. UNLV--Armed Forces
5. San Diego State--New Mexico
6. Colorado State--Famous Potato
7. San Jose State--Heart of Dallas (At Large)
What is actually happening (7-hours later)
Fresno State--Las Vegas
Utah State--Poinsettia
Boise State--Hawaii
Colorado State--New Mexico
San Diego State--Potato
UNLV--Heart of Dallas
San Jose State--Left out.
No one knows why the MWC surrendered their Armed Forces Bowl bid.
FBS Independent
1. Notre Dame--Pinstripe
2. BYU--Fight Hunger (Already accepted bid)
3. Navy--Armed Forces (Already accepted bid)
BCS Bowl Predictions
1. BCS Championship--Florida State vs. Auburn
2. Rose Bowl--Stanford vs. Michigan State
3. Fiesta Bowl--Baylor vs. Oregon
4. Orange Bowl--UCF vs. Clemson
5. Sugar Bowl--Alabama vs. Ohio State
Actually Happening (7 hours later)
1. BCS Championship--Florida State vs. Auburn
2. Rose Bowl--Stanford vs. Michigan State
3. Fiesta--UCF vs. Baylor
4. Orange--Clemson vs. Ohio State
5. Sugar--Alabama vs. Oklahoma
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