Sunday, December 1, 2013

When there is nothing to play for.

BYU fans probably long more for the old days when BYU and Utah would meet on the last game of the season.  But Utah fans must admit they miss those good old days, too.  The rivalry with Colorado would mean something if the two schools had met at least once after 1962.  It will never take the place of the rivalry with BYU, even if the Utes and the Cougars don't meet every season.  Please don't blame anyone on the coaching staff or on the field if the Utes looked a little lethargic against the Buffaloes especially in the 2nd half.  But a win is a win, and the Utes need all they can get.

As for BYU, they have had little to play for since getting shown the ropes in Madison on week 9.  And they offense has played like it.  They followed the trip to Wisconsin with one uninspired performance after another, until the 2nd half of the game against Nevada.  But what did BYU have to play for?  They had already secured a bowl bid.  Unless there is a 48-team NCAA playoff, there isn't much to motivate a team with only 7 victories where the biggest rivals are on the schedule in the first half of the season.

There are some Novembers to look forward to in Provo and in Salt Lake.  Sure, Utah is suffering with their 2nd 5-win season in a row, but don't expect the futility to last very much longer.  If you believe Ivan Maisel of ESPN, the Utes are one healthy quarterback away from doing something special in the PAC-12.  It's probably not just a healthy quarterback, I would also include some speedy outside linebackers as well, but they aren't that far away.  BYU needs continuity on the offensive line and a quality tight end, and yes, some meaningful games.  Both teams are about 3 to 4 players away from being special again.

Meaningful Novembers will come for BYU in 2015 where the season ends at home against Fresno State and on the road against Utah State.  Novembers will improve for BYU.  But I certainly hope that one of these days the schedulers in the PAC-12, at BYU and at Utah will wake up and realize that the week that Notre Dame plays either Stanford or USC is a good week for BYU and Utah to meet.  Utah can then play Colorado the week that USC and UCLA or Cal and Stanford meet.  Colorado can finish their season against either Cal or USC.  It makes sense, but except for 2018, it seems like the Republicans will win the White House first.

The season ended for both Utah and Southern Utah.  The season ended last week for Weber State, but truth is, they cashed it in about week 5 of the season, therefore they are looking for a new head coach.  The Cougars have their bowl game and the Aggies travel to Fresno next week for the MWC Championship game vs. Fresno State.  If they win, it will be the Las Vegas Bowl.  If they lose, it will be the Poinsettia Bowl.

By the way, I like the fact that USU and Wyoming are playing for Jim Bridger's Rifle.  It's great that it will reside in Logan for the next year.

Beehive State POW

BYU 28 Nevada 23

BYU POW: RB Jamaal Williams

Utah 24 Colorado 17

Utah POW: RB Kelvin York

Utah State 35 Wyoming 7

USU POW: RB Joey DeMartino

Sam Houston State 51 Southern Utah 20

SUU POW: QB Aaron Cantu

Games of the Week

FBS Independents:

Stanford 27 Notre Dame 20

PAC-12

Oregon 36 Oregon State 37

MW

BYU 28 Nevada 23

Big Sky

Both BSC teams were blown out of their playoff games.

Players of the Week by Conference

FBS Independents

BYU RB Jamaal Williams

PAC-12

Washington RB Bishop Sankey

MW

San Jose State QB David Fales

Big Sky

Southern Utah QB Aaron Cantu

Power Rankings

FBS Independents

1. Notre Dame (Pinstripe Bowl)
2. BYU (Fight Hunger Bowl*)
3. Navy (Armed Forces Bowl*)
4. Old Dominion
5. Army
6. New Mexico State
7. Idaho

PAC-12 (Likely Post-Season)

1. Stanford (Rose Bowl)
2. Arizona State (Alamo Bowl)
3. Oregon (Fiesta Bowl)
4. UCLA (Holiday Bowl)
5. USC (Sun Bowl)
6. Washington (Fight Hunger Bowl)
7. Arizona (Las Vegas Bowl)
8. Oregon State (New Mexico Bowl)
9. Washington State (Some other bowl)
10. Utah
11. Colorado
12. California

MW

1. Utah State (Las Vegas Bowl)
2. Fresno State (Poinsettia Bowl)
3. Boise State (Hawaii Bowl)
4. Colorado State (Armed Forces Bowl)
5. UNLV (New Mexico Bowl)
6. San Diego State (Potato Bowl)
7. San Jose State (Some other Bowl, but possibly left without an invite.)
8. Wyoming
9. Nevada
10. New Mexico
11. Air Force
12. Hawaii

Big Sky

Eastern Washington (Still in post-season, will face South Dakota State at home on Saturday)
Montana (Still in post season and will entertain Coastal Carolina on Saturday)

3. Northern Arizona
4. Southern Utah
5. Montana State
6. Cal Poly
7. UC Davis
8. Portland State
9. Sacramento State
10. North Dakota
11. Northern Colorado
12. Weber State
13. Idaho State

Predicted Finishes

BYU:
Current Record 8-4
Projected Loss: Washington (Fight Hunger Bowl)
Note: The Huskies should be a 7-point favorite for the bowl game.  It should turn out to be, for BYU, like the Notre Dame game where the offense can't get much going because the O-Line is over-matched.  The D will keep BYU in the game.  More on that later.
Final Record 8-5

Utah State:
Current Record: 8-4
Projected Win: Fresno State (MWC Championship Game)

Note: According to Sagarin, USU is the better team.  They played a more difficult non-conference schedule (Utah, BYU, USC and Weber State) than Fresno (Rutgers, Idaho and Cal Poly), and it should show on Saturday.  It should be a close and exciting game, however.   I expect the Bulldogs will be the favorite by about 7 points.  But I expect that the Aggies will build an early lead and hold on.  Fresno has one of the worst defenses in the country and a mediocre running game.  Utah State has one of the best defenses in the country and a balanced offense.  Utah State will win if they can control the clock and keep the ball out of Derek Carr's hands.

It should be pointed out that if Fresno State had not qualified for the MWC Championship game, they would have needed an NCAA exception to play in a bowl game.  Their game at Colorado was canceled.

Projected Loss: Arizona (Las Vegas Bowl)
Note: Arizona should be a 7-point favorite in the Las Vegas Bowl.  I expect that for USU, this will be like the Utah game where the Wildcats pull away late.  More on this later
Final Record: 9-5

Utah finished the season at 5-7
SUU finished the season at 8-5
WSU finished the season at 2-10

One final comment:

One thing that the first round of the NCAA playoffs missed was drama.  There wasn't a single game decided by 7 points or less, and the eventual victors all had leads at the end of the 3rd quarter.  There were 3 cases where the road team won.  (Sigh)  Hopefully the second round is more exciting.

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