Massey, one of the more respected computer rankings systems, has their pre-season prediction out. And if they are correct, USU will be going bowling in .... well you will have to read on. But, the MWC newcomers are predicted to surprise the conference. The outlook isn't so bad for BYU and SUU, either. Cougars and Thunderbirds look like they will be in the post-season as well. But the outlook is not so good for Utah and Weber State.
However, this is Massey's prediction and not mine. For example, I think that the Bobcats will win the Big Sky Conference. But, there are some interesting story lines should this prediction hold out.
BYU
75% chance of 6-6 record (Add losses to Texas, Ga Tech and Boise State)
50% chance of 9-3 record (Losses to USU, Wisconsin and Notre Dame)
25% chance of 12-0 record
Key games for BYU--Texas, Utah State and Wisconsin
BYU's defense does not have to be as good as they were last year, and they won't quite reach that mark. But the offense must be much better in order to produce these results. If BYU can pull off wins against Gary Anderson's old team and his new Team, they could be BCS bound. Most likely, they will have a very strong team heading to San Francisco. BYU fans will likely finish the season looking back, again, at what could-have been. However, 9-3 with this schedule would be an accomplishment. It should put leave them in the top-25. Cougar fans should really should be looking forward to 2014 instead. A more realistic schedule and another year of experience for Hill and Williams. That could be their year.
FBS Independents
1. Nortre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
5. Idaho
6. New Mexico State
Utah
75% chance of 2-10 record (Only wins vs Weber State and Colorado)
50% chance of 3-9 record (add losses to Utah State, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State)
25% chance of 8-4 record (losses to Oregon, Stanford, BYU and USC)
Key games for Utah--UCLA, Oregon State and Washington State
It may be another bowless season for Utah, but if they can pull things together, especially in Conference play, you have a good chance that Utah will at least get a trip to Albuquerque in December. If Utah does finish with a 3-9 record, what does that mean for Kyle Whittingham? My hunch is that he will get the ax if Utah does finish with a 3-9 record, especially with Dennis Ericson in Salt Lake.
PAC-12
North
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. Washington
4. Oregon State
5. California
6. Washington State
South
1. USC
2. Arizona State
3. UCLA
4. Arizona
5. Utah
6. Colorado
Overall
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. USC
4. Arizona State
5. UCLA
6. Washington
7. Oregon State
8. Arizona
9. Utah
10. California
11. Washington State
12. Colorado
Utah State
75% chance of 7-5 record (Add losses to Utah, San Jose State, BYU and Boise State)
50% chance of 11-1 record (Loss to USC)
25% chance of 12-0 record
Key games for USU--BYU, San Jose State and Boise State
There is at least a 50-50 chance that USU will win the MWC in their first season and bust the BCS. In fact, Massey likes both MWC new comers and predicts they will meet in the championship game. (That will not go over well in Boise). If USU-wins that game, they will bust into the BCS. What bowl would that be--well, the Nation Championship game would be between Alabama and Oregon, leaving a spot in the Rose Bowl for the Aggies. That would be just fine in Aggie-land because they wold spend the entire holiday season rubbing it in to both BYU and Utah fans. Busting the BCS before the Cougars and playing in the Rose Bowl before Utah. (BTW, this will not sit well in LA, where USU's only loss would be to USC). But that would all come crashing down to earth on New Year's Day when they are clobbered by Ohio State.
MWC
Mountain
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Wyomig
4. Air Force
5. Colorado State
6. New Mexico
West
1. San Jose State
2. Fresno State
3. San Diego State
4. Nevada
5. Hawaii
6. UNLV
Overall
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. San Jose State
4. Fresno State
5. San Diego State
6. Nevada
7. Wyoming
8. Air Force
9. Colorado State
10. Hawaii
11. New Mexico
12. UNLV
Weber State
75% chance of 1-11 record (Win vs Idaho State)
50% chance of 1-11 record
25% chance of 8-4 record (Losses only to Utah, Utah State, Eastern Washington and Cal Poly)
Key games for Weber State--Stephen F. Austin, Sacramento State and Portland State
Jody Sears said that he will walk away from Ogden if he does not win 4 games. That will be a tall order for the Wildcats. The first game vs. Stephen F. Austin, a home game, is a must win game. Then he will need to surprise a couple of teams in Big Sky play. Winning against Sac State and in Portland would bring sears back for 2014.
Southern Utah
75% chance of 2-10 record (Only wins Ft. Lewis and Idaho State)
50% chance of 9-3 record (Add losses to Eastern Washington and Montana State)
25% chance of 11-1 record (Loss only to Washington State)
Key games for SUU--South Alabama, Sacramento State and Northern Arizona
Despite losing Brad Sorensen to the NFL, SUU should have the FCS post-season in their sights. They have a very winnable game at South Alabama to start the season...and a chance to impress the pollsters by beginning the season with a win against an FBS school. it won't be smooth sailing, but a chance at a good season never-the-less.
Big Sky Conference
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Cal Poly
4. Southern Utah
5. Montana
6. Sacramento State
7. Northern Arizona
8. North Dakota
9. Portland State
10. UC Davis
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
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