My hope for the Jazz 2013--After the draft

The 2013 NBA draft went well for the Jazz.  They can get a lot better without getting close to the salary cap.  All because they got the right player in the draft.

PG--Trey Burke (DP)--Earl Watson (FA)--Raul Neto (DP, D-League)
SG--Kyle Korver (FA)--Alec Burks--Kevin Murphy
SF--Gordon Hayward--Marvin Williams--Chase Budinger (FA)
PF--Derrick Favors--Jeremy Evans
C--Enis Kanter--Cole Alrich (FA)--Rudy Gobert (DP, D-League)

Free Agents the Jazz need to resign
Earl Watson, to mentor the young Trey Burke
Marvin Williams (Player option)

Needed Free Agents
1.  Point Guards.  Trey Burke is the man.  He will likely start right away.  He appears to have the right temperament and a strong work ethic.  Many are predicting big things right away for Burke, including becoming this year's Damien Lillard.  What the Jazz need here is a mentor.  Jarret Jack would do well, but now the Jazz don't need to spend that kind of money.  Resigning Earl Watson would make good sense.  Also keep in mind that Alec Burks can run the point as well and may develop into the primary backup for Burke.  Raul Neto who was also ended up with the Jazz on draft day, should find some good, solid experience in Reno.
2.  Shooting Guard.  The Jazz need help in the perimeter.  Kyle Korver wants to come back.  Problem solved.  But what the Jazz really need is good perimeter defense.  One of the most under-rated areas of Korver's game is his ability to defend.  He can also help with the continued development of Alec Burks, but with Burks also chipping in at the point, Korver should be able to mentor Murphy and help him take a bigger role with the team.
3.  Small Forward--Hayward continues to get better.  Marvin Williams will likely take his player option and come back because he won't make as much money on the Free Agent market.  One more is needed to shore up the perimeter ranks.  Chase Budinger of the Pelicans would be a good fill here.  The Jazz need someone who can come of the bench and provide some consistent, quality relief.  The Jazz could re-sign deMarre Carroll to fill this need as well.
4.  Power Forward/Center.  Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors are ready to take over.  Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson, likely done in a Jazz uniform.  Perhaps the Jazz can work out a sign and trade with someone for both of these players and continue to build for the future.  One will be allowed to just walk away.  The NBA is a business.  I would love to see Milsap come back.  I love his work ethic.  But he is not the future of the franchise.  This will mean more playing time for Evans, who also deserves more time on the floor.  However, with Gobert not playing in the summer league, the Jazz will need him to develop in Reno.  The Jazz need someone who can be a good quality backup to Kanter.  Cole Aldrich should fit the bill.

My Hope for the 2013/14 Utah Jazz

Here is how I hope the Jazz roster will shake out after free agency and draft have worked themselves out.

PG--Jarrett Jack (FA)--Shane Larkin (DP)--Isaiah Canaan (DP)
SG--Kyle Korver (FA)--Alec Burks--Kevin Murphy (D-League)
SF--Gordon Hayward--Marvin Williams--JJ Hickson (FA)
PF--Derrick Favors--Jeremy Evans
C--Al Jefferson--Enes Kanter--Kenny Kadji (DP, D-League)

If you are going to draft a PG at #14, you need to sign someone who can act as a mentor.  That is what I hope that Jarrett Jack can do for Shane Larkin or whomever the Jazz get at the point.  The Jazz need some perimeter help, someone who can play at the wing an bury a long shot or two.  Kyle Korver fits the bill here and so does JJ Hickson.  Either could be brought in with a mid-level exception.

I see the Jazz keeping either Jefferson or Milsap for 2013, but not both.  One of those two big men will be left to walk in Free Agency, especially if someone like Kenny Kadji is available with the later first round draft pick.  I would also expect, as the season rolls on, that if the Jazz don't look like playoff contenders that whomever the Jazz keep will be shopped-out on the trade market to improve the team's position for 2014.

Rating the optimism in 2013

It’s a little bit hard to rate how optimistic or pessimistic fans are, because such ratings are not objective.  But I’m going to give it a shot.  Feel free to comment.

Utah State—Highly Optimistic

Utah State fans are the most optimistic in Utah this year.  Why not, Chuckie is coming back and so is most of the defense.  Gary Anderson left the program in good shape.  Matt Wells seems to have a good head on his shoulders.  For the first time in 60 years, the Aggies are in a good conference.  There is no reason for much pessimism in Logan.

In fact, there are more reasons to be optimistic than this.  The schedule favors the Aggies.  They have BYU and Boise State in Logan.  The Mountain West Mountain has their share of cream puffs, and they are at the end of the season.  If the Aggies can beat BYU, Boise State and San Jose State, there is little to stop them from smelling roses, and all they have to do is put up a good showing against USC.  Yes, there is plenty of optimism in Logan.

BYU—Cautiously Optimistic

BYU fans are approaching the season with a little more cautious optimism.  They finally have a good November schedule that is a little challenging, even if they do still have an FCS opponent at home in the 11^th month.  But there is plenty to be concerned about as well.

Last year, there is no way to put this mildly, the offense stunk.  The defense played well enough to give BYU another 10-win season, but the offense failed to put the points on the board.  The offense was so bad last year, that Bronco Mendenhall hired someone he basically fired two years prior.  Is there any reason for hope?  There is still a pretty good defense coming back.  The offense doesn’t need Jim McMahon numbers to win; they just need to score a few more points.  It remains to be seen if Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams can click or if someone other than Cody Hoffman can catch the ball.

Southern Utah—Semi Optimistic

In Southern Utah, there should be good reason for optimism.  Ed Lamb returns the same defense from last season.  That is both good news and bad news.  Brad Sorensen is getting a chance to play for the Chargers, and it remains to be seen if he can be replaced.  The defense in 2012 was not as consistent as they needed to be and the Thunderbirds lost a couple of games they should have won.  Perhaps the 2013 defense will be better and this will be the year it all comes together and SUU fans will finally get to play in the post season.

The so-called experts, however are a little more optimistic.  Most expect the T-Birds to be on the cusp of the post-season.  There are 4-more playoff spots and only one more automatic qualifier.  SUU could finish the conference at #5, and with a couple of “weaker” FBS opponents on the schedule in South Alabama and Washington State, the door is open.  There is a reason to be optimistic in Cedar City

Utah-Semi Pessimistic

There isn’t a lot of optimism on the Hill this year.  There is not really talk of a conference championship.  Some are even saying that this could be coach Whit’s last season.  I don’t think it will be that bad.  But those who say that Utah won’t win more than 4-5 games this year could be right.  But as long as the fans keep coming to the games, Whit will get at least one more season.  With the expectations not-so-high, there is no reason for Whit’s seat to be hot.  Many are already looking forward to 2014. 

There are some reasons for optimism on the Hill.  First, they have owned BYU the past few seasons, and that rivalry still matters to the fans.  A big win over the Cougars could turn into big momentum for the conference season.  They have Dennis Ericson tutoring Brian Johnson.  That should help develop the offense.  By the end of the season, when the weaker PAC-12 opponents are on the schedule, if there is a shot at a bowl, the Utes should grab it.

Weber State--Pessimistic

Jody Sears promised to double the number of wins from 2012.  Most in Ogden that I have spoken to are not optimistic that is even possible.  The schedule is not kind to the Wildcats.  There is only one non-conference game that is really winnable, and that is iffy.  And the Cats get four out of the top five Big Sky Conference teams this year in Montana, Montana State, Cal Poly and Southern Utah.  There is inexperience at quarterback and on the offensive line.  And the biggest offensive threat for the ‘Cats is just returning from and LDS Mission.  If people in Ogden are pessimistic about the season, there is good reason for it.

However, there is a little reason for optimism.  Weber State did manage to get Robin Pflugrad on the coaching staff.  He had a lot of success in Missoula before he was made a scapegoat for certain off-the-field problems and run out of town.  It could be that the 2012 season was the anomaly and the 2013 season will be more like the Ron McBride years where the Cats will at least put together a winning season.  After all, a lot of stuff happened between the 2011 season and 2012 season.  All one can do when expectations are low, however, is beat them.

(State of) Idaho football possibilities according to Massey

Massey is one of the more respected computer ranking systems out there.  They have their pre-season computer ranking out.  Depending on your perspective, it's not going to be a terrible season for Boise State, and it's not going to be pretty for the rest of the Gem State.  Yes, there is college football played outside of the City of Boise in the Gem State, but some seasons, it is hardly noticeable.

Boise State

75% probability of a 7-5 record (Add losses to Fresno State and San Diego State)
50% probability of a 9-3 record (Add loss to Utah State)
25% probability of a 10-2 record (Loses to Washington and BYU)

Key games for Boise State--Fresno State, Utah State and San Diego State

Don't panic, Bronco's fans; this is only one projection.  Jerry Palm of CBS Online has BSU in the Rose Bowl.  Let me also say that 9-3 is not a bad season, but when you are used to winning 11 games and going to BCS bowls, 9-3 is just a little bit difficult to swallow, especially if someone else wins the conference division champion.  But that is one of the breaks of life in a good conference, there are other quality program and even BSU will not dominate and win the conference every season.  Massey likes both MWC newcomers and predicts that Utah State and San Jose State will meet in the conference title game. 

MWC

Mountain
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Wyomig
4. Air Force
5. Colorado State
6. New Mexico

West
1. San Jose State
2. Fresno State
3. San Diego State
4. Nevada
5. Hawaii
6. UNLV

Overall
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. San Jose State
4. Fresno State
5. San Diego State
6. Nevada
7. Wyoming
8. Air Force
9. Colorado State
10. Hawaii
11. New Mexico
12. UNLV

Idaho

75% probability of 0-12 record
50% probability of 0-12 record (50% chance of winning at New Mexico State)
25% chance of 4-8 record (Wins vs Temple, Texas St, Old Dominion and New Mexico State)

The Vandals will not be the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision in 2013, according to Massey, but only one team ranked below the Vandals shows up on the schedule.  It would be nice if Akron, South Alabama, UMass and Georgia State showed up on Idaho's schedule this season.  But that is the life of independence.  The Vandals will have to find a way win games they should not.

1. Nortre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
5. Idaho
6. New Mexico State

Idaho State

75% probability 2-10 record (wins vs. Dixie State and Colorado Western)
50% probability 2-10 record
25% probability 2-10 record

Key games -- Northern Colorado, Portland State, North Dakota

What will it take to turn the Bengals around?  Is it hard to believe that the Bengals were once the Division I-AA champions.  This is a program that once won 6 conference championships in a period of 10 season.  But they have not seen much success since 2002. It does not appear as if 2013 will be different, but Bengals fans hope so.  There are some winnable games, and that is where ISU needs to start.

Utah Football possibilities according to Massey

Massey, one of the more respected computer rankings systems, has their pre-season prediction out.  And if they are correct, USU will be going bowling in .... well you will have to read on.  But, the MWC newcomers are predicted to surprise the conference.  The outlook isn't so bad for BYU and SUU, either.  Cougars and Thunderbirds look like they will be in the post-season as well.  But the outlook is not so good for Utah and Weber State.

However, this is Massey's prediction and not mine.  For example, I think that the Bobcats will win the Big Sky Conference.  But, there are some interesting story lines should this prediction hold out.

BYU

75% chance of 6-6 record (Add losses to Texas, Ga Tech and Boise State)
50% chance of 9-3 record (Losses to USU, Wisconsin and Notre Dame)
25% chance of 12-0 record

Key games for BYU--Texas, Utah State and Wisconsin

BYU's defense does not have to be as good as they were last year, and they won't quite reach that mark.  But the offense must be much better in order to produce these results.  If BYU can pull off wins against Gary Anderson's old team and his new Team, they could be BCS bound.  Most likely, they will have a very strong team heading to San Francisco.  BYU fans will likely finish the season looking back, again, at what could-have been. However, 9-3 with this schedule would be an accomplishment.  It should put leave them in the top-25.  Cougar fans should really should be looking forward to 2014 instead.  A more realistic schedule and another year of experience for Hill and Williams.  That could be their year.

FBS Independents

1. Nortre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
5. Idaho
6. New Mexico State

Utah

75% chance of 2-10 record (Only wins vs Weber State and Colorado)
50% chance of 3-9 record (add losses to Utah State, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State)
25% chance of 8-4 record (losses to Oregon, Stanford, BYU and USC)

Key games for Utah--UCLA, Oregon State and Washington State

It may be another bowless season for Utah, but if they can pull things together, especially in Conference play, you have a good chance that Utah will at least get a trip to Albuquerque in December.  If Utah does finish with a 3-9 record, what does that mean for Kyle Whittingham?  My hunch is that he will get the ax if Utah does finish with a 3-9 record, especially with Dennis Ericson in Salt Lake.

PAC-12

North
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. Washington
4. Oregon State
5. California
6. Washington State

South
1. USC
2. Arizona State
3. UCLA
4. Arizona
5. Utah
6. Colorado

Overall
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. USC
4. Arizona State
5. UCLA
6. Washington
7. Oregon State
8. Arizona
9. Utah
10. California
11. Washington State
12. Colorado

Utah State

75% chance of 7-5 record (Add losses to Utah, San Jose State, BYU and Boise State)
50% chance of 11-1 record (Loss to USC)
25% chance of 12-0 record

Key games for USU--BYU, San Jose State and Boise State

There is at least a 50-50 chance that USU will win the MWC in their first season and bust the BCS.  In fact, Massey likes both MWC new comers and predicts they will meet in the championship game.  (That will not go over well in Boise).  If USU-wins that game, they will bust into the BCS.  What bowl would that be--well, the Nation Championship game would be between Alabama and Oregon, leaving a spot in the Rose Bowl for the Aggies.  That would be just fine in Aggie-land because they wold spend the entire holiday season rubbing it in to both BYU and Utah fans.  Busting the BCS before the Cougars and playing in the Rose Bowl before Utah.  (BTW, this will not sit well in LA, where USU's only loss would be to USC).  But that would all come crashing down to earth on New Year's Day when they are clobbered by Ohio State.

MWC

Mountain
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. Wyomig
4. Air Force
5. Colorado State
6. New Mexico

West
1. San Jose State
2. Fresno State
3. San Diego State
4. Nevada
5. Hawaii
6. UNLV

Overall
1. Utah State
2. Boise State
3. San Jose State
4. Fresno State
5. San Diego State
6. Nevada
7. Wyoming
8. Air Force
9. Colorado State
10. Hawaii
11. New Mexico
12. UNLV

Weber State

75% chance of 1-11 record (Win vs Idaho State)
50% chance of 1-11 record
25% chance of 8-4 record (Losses only to Utah, Utah State, Eastern Washington and Cal Poly)

Key games for Weber State--Stephen F. Austin, Sacramento State and Portland State

Jody Sears said that he will walk away from Ogden if he does not win 4 games.  That will be a tall order for the Wildcats.  The first game vs. Stephen F. Austin, a home game, is a must win game.  Then he will need to surprise a couple of teams in Big Sky play.  Winning against Sac State and in Portland would bring sears back for 2014.

Southern Utah

75% chance of 2-10 record (Only wins Ft. Lewis and Idaho State)
50% chance of 9-3 record (Add losses to Eastern Washington and Montana State)
25% chance of 11-1 record (Loss only to Washington State)

Key games for SUU--South Alabama, Sacramento State and Northern Arizona

Despite losing Brad Sorensen to the NFL, SUU should have the FCS post-season in their sights.  They have a very winnable game at South Alabama to start the season...and a chance to impress the pollsters by beginning the season with a win against an FBS school.  it won't be smooth sailing, but a chance at a good season never-the-less.

Big Sky Conference
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana State
3. Cal Poly
4. Southern Utah
5. Montana
6. Sacramento State
7. Northern Arizona
8. North Dakota
9. Portland State
10. UC Davis
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State