Utah State 2012 Preview

Utah State is one of the last quality program remaining on the Titanic that will get a life-boat to another conference.  The good news is that it is the MWC.  The bad news, it's not the MWC of three years ago that also had BYU, Utah and TCU.  Boise State will have also left by the time the Aggies get there, but there are still some schools that are much like USU in mission, such as Colorado State, who will make good natural rivals.  But for now, there is one more year in the WAC.

But do not expect a cake-walk through the entire season.  Returning champ, Louisiana Tech (hard to say, isn't it?) is back to defend their crown.  But the WAC is difficult to predict in 2012 beyond the first two teams.  There are only 4 all-WAC first team players returning from the 2011, and three of them are LT Bulldogs, the other is USU lineman Tyler Larsen.  Robert Turbin is not one of them, but USU, with a good offensive line, should be able to find a solid back to replace him.  USU will have to decide whether Adam Kennedy or Chuckie Keeton gets to start at quarterback, but should have a quality offense no matter who is under center.  And the defense should be solid as well, even though Bobby Wagner has also moved on to the NFL.

The schedule is not all that difficult, but the WAC only has one post-season slot in 2012.  USU will have to take care of business when they travel to Rushton to take on those Bulldogs on November 17, that game will define their season, even with both Utah and BYU on the schedule.  Without that win, USU will have to hope that some other conference can not fill all of their bowl slots.  Even with 9-10 wins, the Aggies could still be home in December and that would be a tragedy.

Schedule

08/30/12	vs. Southern Utah	Logan, Utah	6:00 p.m. MT
09/07/12	vs. Utah	Logan, Utah	6:00 p.m. MT
09/15/12	at Wisconsin	Madison, Wis.	6:00 p.m. MT
09/22/12	at Colorado State	Fort Collins, Colo.	TBA
09/29/12	vs. UNLV  HOMECOMING	Logan, Utah	6:00 p.m. MT
10/05/12	at BYU	Provo, Utah	8:15 p.m. MT
10/13/12	at San Jose State *	San Jose, Calif.	2:00 p.m. MT
10/20/12	vs. New Mexico State *	Logan, Utah	1:00 p.m. MT
10/27/12	at UTSA *	San Antonio, Texas	12:00 p.m. MT
11/03/12	vs. Texas State *	Logan, Utah	1:00 p.m. MT
11/17/12	at Louisiana Tech *	Ruston, La.	5:00 p.m. MT
11/24/12	vs. Idaho *	Logan, Utah	1:00 p.m. MT

Season outlook...number of wins

0-4...unlikely
5-6...pessimistic
7-9...realistic
10-11...optimistic
12...unrealistic

Conference finish: 2nd behind Louisiana Tech

Post-season outlook...The USU Aggies will likely be a fill in for some conference that cannot meet all of their  bowl commitments.  In looking over the bowl schedule, three conferences stick out as having too many bowl commitments for 2012, the ACC, Big East and C-USA may have too many bowl slots.  You could see the New Orleans Bowl pull in Louisiana Tech and see Utah State go to Boise again.

Weber State Football 2012 Preview

It was a soap opera much like Desperate Housewives in Ogden over the spring.  First, alumnus John L. Smith was hired to replace the retiring Ron McBride at head coach.  But before you could say Teri Hatcher, Smith became the interim head coach at Arkansas and left without even coaching a single game.  Weber's interim coach is former Eastern Washington and Washington State assistant Jody Sears.

If it were not for the coaching staff and the killer opening schedule, there would be plenty of reason for optimism in Ogden.  Mike Hoke leads a now-experienced offense, losing only a couple of players from last year's offensive line.  He has has 2011's top receivers returning in Shaydon Kehano and Xavian Johnson.  Three of last year's 4-man running back committee return: CJ Tuckett, Barrington Collins and Josh Booker are back but Tanner Hinds takes a two-year mission break.  Trevor Pletcher and Anthony Morales lead a defense that does not have a lot of holes to fill.  But the biggest problems from last year's team was special teams and Shaun McClain will now be handling both placekicking and punting duties as all-conference punter Josh Kealamakia is also serving an LDS Mission.  If it were not for the changes in the coaching staff, Weber would be returning a good team and the question is how well the players can adjust to the instability on the coaching staff.

The special teams play was not all bad, but often the execution was.  In 2011, Weber was plagued by missed field goals and long punt returns and the coaching staff will need to address these problems in 2012.  There were also many other times in 2012 where the execution was unfortunate.  For example, Mike Hoke did not commit a lot of turnovers; but he did at critical times, such as on the last drive in a close game at Eastern Washington and in the second half against Southern Utah.  Weber did show flashes of brilliance and did play up to their potential in other games.  They spoiled Portland State's chances at the FCS playoffs in the last game of the season where they sent Coach Ron McBride out a winner.

The reason I am not optimistic about Weber this year is the problems with the coaching staff.  There is a good possibility that had Weber looked past the eccentric John L. Smith; Jody Sears may have been hired, anyway.  He has a good coaching resume and Weber State could surprise a few people this season.  My main concern about Sears, however, is recruiting and managing a team that sees many good players serve on LDS missions.  He has never coached in such an environment before.  Weber has two key players from last year's team that are on missions now, and there will be some good players returning next season.  If Sears can have a good season, and recruit and manage in Utah, he has a good chance at not only being the permanent head football coach, but could spend a few years in Ogden.

It is a tough schedule for the 'Cats this year.  Not only for beginning the season at Fresno State and BYU, but also they have Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Montana and Southern Utah on the schedule, all these teams that will be fighting for the Big Sky title in 2012.  Weber has 3 of these 4 teams at home, and that is the good news.  Weber also faces Sacramento State and Idaho State on the road and opens the home schedule against Southland Conference power McNeese State.  Northern Colorado also comes to Ogden.  Although it does not seem likely, it is not overly optimistic to see Weber get 9 wins and contend for the Conference title.  However, 5 wins is more of a possibility should be enough to see Sears back in 2013.

Schedule

September 1...@Fresno State
September 8...@BYU
September 15...McNeese State
September 22...Eastern Washington (Homecoming)
September 29...@UC Davis
October 5(Fri)...Cal Poly
October 13...@Sacramento State
October 20...@Southern Utah
October 27...(bye)
November 3...Montana
November 10...Northern Colorado
November 17...@Idaho State


# Wins....Outlook
0.............Unlikely
1-2..........Pessimistic
3-6..........Realistic
7-9..........Optimistic
10-11......Unrealistic

Likely Conference Finish: Tied for 5th place.

Post season outlook: The key games for Weber will be the first two home games.  Win them both, and the chances for a post-season appearance are good.  Weber will need 7 wins to qualify for the FCS playoffs and has a good chance at being selected should they reach that threshold.

Southern Utah 2012 football preview.

The Thunderbirds will play their first season as a member of the Big Sky Conference in 2012.  Life gets a little bit harder as a result.  Last season, four of the five members of the Great West Conference were evenly matched, providing both highs and lows for Southern Utah fans all season.

The best game of the season for SUU in 2011 was taking the bus ride to Las Vegas and putting the big 41-16 surprise on UNLV.  But there were close loses to South Dakota State, North Dakota, South Dakota, Cal Poly and Northern Iowa.  Any 2 of those loses in the win column and SUU is in their first FCS post-season.

SUU returns quarterback Brad Sorensen to the lineup.  The BYU transfer was the Great West Offensive player of the year in 2011.  Now he goes on to the Big Sky Conference where he is sure to be one of the better quarterbacks in that league.  But there were some key loses for SUU on both sides of the ball.  Star running back Austin Minifee, tight end Abbel Aiono, center Gavin Farr and guard Zach Brackus have all graduated.  But Sorensen still have all-conference receiver Brady Measom to throw to.  On defense, Tyler Osborne and Cody Larson have fished, but linebacker Chad Hansen returns.

Not only does the conference schedule get harder for SUU in 2012, but the non-conference schedule gets more difficult as well.  SUU will begin the season by taking trips to Logan, Utah to take on Utah State and to Berkeley, California to take on Cal.  The Big Sky schedule features games at Montana, Portland State and North Dakota.  Montana State, Sacramento State and Eastern Washington make the trip to Cedar City.  SUU hosts in-state rival Weber State and will travel to Flagstaff to take on Color Country rival Northern Arizona.  Nearby Division II school, New Mexico Highlands makes the trip to Cedar City as well.

The key for Southern Utah will be how well key players are replaced on offense.  If everything is put on the broad shoulders of Brad Sorensen, the Thunderbirds will struggle.  But if there is a good running game, plenty of time for Sorensen to find receivers and a short field because of good special teams play and a strong defense, like last year, the T-Birds will surprise the Big Sky Conference in 2012.

Schedule:

August 30...@ Utah State
September 8...@ California
September 15...New Mexico Highlands
September 22...@ Portland State
September 29...Montana State (Homecoming)
October 6...Sacramento State
October 13...@ Montana
October 20...Weber State
October 27...Eastern Washington
November 3...@ North Dakota
November 10...@ Northern Arizona

# Wins....Outlook
0-2..........Unlikely
3-4..........Pessimistic
5-7..........Realistic
8-9..........Optimistic
10-11......Unrealistic

Likely Conference Finish...Tied for 3rd place.

Post season outlook: SUU will have to reach 7 wins in order to reach the post season, but that that rate, they could get one of the first round play-in games...perhaps at home.

How Long Do Idaho and New Mexico State Survive as FBS Independents?

It appears that the WAC will not grow any new football programs for 2013, as June 1 was a week ago and there are no announcements.  The WAC will only have 2 football programs for 2013.  And who, besides BYU, will Idaho and New Mexico State play in 2013.

There are still plenty of schools with opening left for 2013...for that, please see my ongoing blog about BYU's 2013 possibilities.  There are two problems that New Mexico State and Idaho have.  They are the same problems that BYU has in independence.  First, having a balanced schedule and second, finding quality games late in the season.  BYU has ESPN as a partner.  Idaho and NMSU do not.

As long as these schools want a stead diet of September trips to the SEC and Sun Belt/MAC schools in November they can be FBS independents as long as they want and as long as fans will come to games and they don't have worse problems with recruiting.  There will also be no bowl tie ins and no conference championship to play for after the body-bag games are over.

They would need cooperation from the MWC, C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt and Big Sky Conferences to pull it off.  But I suggest that NMSU and Idaho remain independent FBS members for 2 seasons and if a conference does not come calling by 2015, accept reclassification to the FCS where Idaho can join the Big Sky Conference and New Mexico State can join the Southland Conference.  Who could last more than 2 years with 3 road games at BCS-level schools and a September-heavy schedule?

For 2013, here is what their schedules could look like and remember, unless noted, this is only theoretical on my part.

Idaho


8/31--@ Ole Miss (Already on the schedule)
9/7--@ Wyoming (Already on the schedule)
9/14--Kent (Will Likely lose a road game to Clemson)
9/21--@ Washington State (Due to proximity and with a kind-hearted Mike Leach, this could be counted as a home game for Idaho.)
9/28--Northern Illinois (Already on the schedule)
10/5--Western Michigan
10/12--@Texas A&M
10/19--@Fresno State
10/26--Open
11/2--@BYU
11/9--Montana
11/16--New Mexico State
11/23--Open
11/30--@Georgia State

New Mexico State


8/31--@ Texas (Already on the schedule)
9/7--Open
9/14--Eastern Michigan
9/21--@ UCLA (Already on the schedule)
9/28--Middle Tennessee
10/5--Cal Poly
10/12--@ New Mexico (Already on the schedule, date TBA)
10/19--Central Michigan
10/26--@ Texas Tech
11/2--Louisiana Lafayette
11/9--UTEP (Already on the schedule, date TBA)
11/16--@ Idaho
11/23--Open
11/30--@ BYU

Best Coaches per team In Big Sky History

Recently, Bleacher Report ran a slideshow about the best coaches in the history of each of the current FBS schools.  Here is the same treatment for the current Big Sky Conference schools.

Cal Poly

Joe Harper coached the Mustangs from 1968 to 1981.  He amassed a 96-43 record with 9 conference championships and the 1980 Division II National Championship.

UC Davis

Jim Sochor coached at UC Davis from 1970 to 1988.  He was 155-42-5 and UC Davis was the only school where he was a head coach.  His teams won 18 conference titles.

Eastern Washington

Dave Holmes was in Cheney for only 5 seasons where he was 38-14-1.  He won three consecutive conference championships and led the Eagles to the National Championship game in 1967 where they lost by one score.

Of course, take nothing away from current coach Beau Baldwin who is 33-16 and has a National Championship

Idaho State

Babe Caccia was 80-37-2 when he coached in Pocatello from 1952 to 1965.  During that time, the Bengals won 5 conference championships.

Montana

There have been many good coaches at Montana, but Don Read was the one who started it all.  The former Oregon head coach worked 10 seasons at Montana from 1986 to 1995 and was 85-36.  He only won 1 conference championship, but coached when Boise State, Idaho and Nevada were still in the Big Sky.  He was also at the helm when Montana won their first National Championship in 1995.  He was the first of 5 consistent winners that have walked the sidelines at Montana.  Mick Dennehy, Joe Glenn, Bobby Hauck and Robin Pflugard all deserve credit for keeping it going.

Montana State

The legendary Jim Sweeny had his first head coaching gig at Montana State.  In 5 seasons he was 31-20 and led the Bobcats to 3 conference championships.

North Dakota

Whitey Helling coached NDU from 1957 to 1967.  He was 60-35-3 and helmed 3 conference champions.

Northern Arizona

Max Spilsbury coached the Lumberjacks from 1956 to 1964 with a 57-26-5 record.  During that time, NAU won 7 conference championships.

Northern Colorado

Joe Glenn walked the sidelines in Greeley for 11 seasons from 1989 to 1999.  He was 99-34 and his teams earned 4 conference championships and 2 Division II national championships.

Portland State

Pokey Allen coached the Vikings from 1986 to 1992.  He was 63-26-2 and helmed 5 conference champions.

Sacramento State

Bob Mattos is the only coach to leave Sacramento with a +.500 record at 84-72-2.  He was there from 1978 to 1992 and his teams won 2 conference championships.

Southern Utah

Jack Bishop coached the Thunderbirds from 1978 to 1995 and earned a 80-74-4 record.  He led the T-Birds from the NAIA, to NCAA Division II to NCAA FCS and was consistent at every level.

 Weber State

Sark Arslanian stopped in Ogden from 1965 to 1972.  His teams were 50-26-2 and won 2 conference championships.  His son, Dave Arslanian, also coached at Weber State from 1989 to 1997 and his teams were 53-47.  But give the edge, in this case, to his dad.

Winningest non-BCS, FBS programs

Top 10 non-BCS FBS programs that have never played in the lower divisions of college football.  These schools have never played in the Small College, College Division, Division I-AA nor FCS.

1.  Fresno State-Mountain West.  558-384-28
2.  Army-Independent.  652-471-51
3.  Brigham Young-Independent.  524-386-27
4.  Tulsa-C-USA.  583-455-27
5.  Navy-Independent...joining Big East in 2014.  657-531-57
6.  Air Force-Mountain West.   344-284-13
7.  Utah State-WAC...joining MWC in 2013.  494-407-31
8.  Wyoming-Mountain West.  494-525-28
9.  Southern Methodist-C-USA...joining Big East in 2013.  462-494-54
10. Tulane-C-USA.  493-593-38

Who did not make this list.

Boise State did not join the FBS until 1996.  But to their credit, they have been more successful in the FBS than they were in the lower division.

Anyone currently in the MAC as that conference was in the lower division until 1960.