It was a soap opera much like Desperate Housewives in Ogden over the spring. First, alumnus John L. Smith was hired to replace the retiring Ron McBride at head coach. But before you could say Teri Hatcher, Smith became the interim head coach at Arkansas and left without even coaching a single game. Weber's interim coach is former Eastern Washington and Washington State assistant Jody Sears.
If it were not for the coaching staff and the killer opening schedule, there would be plenty of reason for optimism in Ogden. Mike Hoke leads a now-experienced offense, losing only a couple of players from last year's offensive line. He has has 2011's top receivers returning in Shaydon Kehano and Xavian Johnson. Three of last year's 4-man running back committee return: CJ Tuckett, Barrington Collins and Josh Booker are back but Tanner Hinds takes a two-year mission break. Trevor Pletcher and Anthony Morales lead a defense that does not have a lot of holes to fill. But the biggest problems from last year's team was special teams and Shaun McClain will now be handling both placekicking and punting duties as all-conference punter Josh Kealamakia is also serving an LDS Mission. If it were not for the changes in the coaching staff, Weber would be returning a good team and the question is how well the players can adjust to the instability on the coaching staff.
The special teams play was not all bad, but often the execution was. In 2011, Weber was plagued by missed field goals and long punt returns and the coaching staff will need to address these problems in 2012. There were also many other times in 2012 where the execution was unfortunate. For example, Mike Hoke did not commit a lot of turnovers; but he did at critical times, such as on the last drive in a close game at Eastern Washington and in the second half against Southern Utah. Weber did show flashes of brilliance and did play up to their potential in other games. They spoiled Portland State's chances at the FCS playoffs in the last game of the season where they sent Coach Ron McBride out a winner.
The reason I am not optimistic about Weber this year is the problems with the coaching staff. There is a good possibility that had Weber looked past the eccentric John L. Smith; Jody Sears may have been hired, anyway. He has a good coaching resume and Weber State could surprise a few people this season. My main concern about Sears, however, is recruiting and managing a team that sees many good players serve on LDS missions. He has never coached in such an environment before. Weber has two key players from last year's team that are on missions now, and there will be some good players returning next season. If Sears can have a good season, and recruit and manage in Utah, he has a good chance at not only being the permanent head football coach, but could spend a few years in Ogden.
It is a tough schedule for the 'Cats this year. Not only for beginning the season at Fresno State and BYU, but also they have Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Montana and Southern Utah on the schedule, all these teams that will be fighting for the Big Sky title in 2012. Weber has 3 of these 4 teams at home, and that is the good news. Weber also faces Sacramento State and Idaho State on the road and opens the home schedule against Southland Conference power McNeese State. Northern Colorado also comes to Ogden. Although it does not seem likely, it is not overly optimistic to see Weber get 9 wins and contend for the Conference title. However, 5 wins is more of a possibility should be enough to see Sears back in 2013.
Schedule
September 1...@Fresno State
September 8...@BYU
September 15...McNeese State
September 22...Eastern Washington (Homecoming)
September 29...@UC Davis
October 5(Fri)...Cal Poly
October 13...@Sacramento State
October 20...@Southern Utah
October 27...(bye)
November 3...Montana
November 10...Northern Colorado
November 17...@Idaho State
# Wins....Outlook
0.............Unlikely
1-2..........Pessimistic
3-6..........Realistic
7-9..........Optimistic
10-11......Unrealistic
Likely Conference Finish: Tied for 5th place.
Post season outlook: The key games for Weber will be the first two home games. Win them both, and the chances for a post-season appearance are good. Weber will need 7 wins to qualify for the FCS playoffs and has a good chance at being selected should they reach that threshold.
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