According to Jon Wilner, San Jose Mercury News, an authority that I have come to respect in the conference realignment matters, the proposed merger between C-USA and the Mountain West Conference is likely off for the time being.
The NCAA told the MWC and C-USA that it would award the merged league only one AQ berth to postseason events. So instead of two 8-10 team leagues and two AQs, there would be one 16+ team league with only one AQ.
(Think that went over well with MWC/C-USA officials?)
The reason the meger is likely off is the loss of automatic seats in the NCAA tournament.
Wilner concludes that Utah State and San Jose state will likely join the MWC.
Wilner also points out that the MWC may not expand unless Air Force leaves, which is likely with Navy in the Big East. The MWC needs a contingency plan just in case Boise State and San Diego State decide to return.
That being said, Wilner believes that Utah State and San Jose State are still in line for an invite.
The status of Idaho, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, Texas State and UTSA is up in the air. Although LT could easily fit in with Conference USA.
New Mexico State, Texas State and UTSA have the Sun Belt Conference as a fall-back. If C-USA wants to build back up to 12, they will likely raid the Sun Belt or pick one of these other schools. NMSU has rivals in both the MWC and C-USA, they could go either way.
I do not know if Idaho has any good options to remain in the Football Bowl Subdivision unless it can talk Montana and a few other former Big Sky buddies into moving up and saving the WAC as a football conference. Idaho was in the Sun Belt Conference before, but Utah State was there with them. But the Vandals were only in the Sun Belt as a football conference, the rest of their programs were in the Big West at the time. The Aggies will not be there to help ease Idaho's travel woes this time. Idaho may be able to keep their basketball program in the WAC, if the WAC continues as a non-football conference. But covering travel costs when your nearest football rival is four western states away is something else entirely.
Even if WAC football survives, Idaho may not be able to continue as an FBS member. Let's say the WAC still loses Utah State and San Jose State, but survives by raiding the FCS Southland conference and landing Lamar, Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin, Idaho is no better off than if they are in the Sun Belt.
But rather than worry, Idaho can be proactive. Utah State can't block Weber State once they are out of the WAC. That may be a good place to begin.
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