Basketball Post-Season

Four of Utah's men's college basketball teams will be in the post-season, although two of the three must be disappointed with the results.

BYU made it to the NCAA tournament, but will play in the 1st 4 on Tuesday evening against Iona.  BYU was one of the last 4 at-large teams in the tournament.  They dropped to a 14th seed.  There are several reasons why the Cougars did not get a better seed.  One which the NCAA usually points two when asking about why the Cougars seem to be consistently seeded lower than they deserve is the no-Sunday rule.  For the past several tournaments, the committee has been firm that no-Sunday play usually limits the Cougars to just one region every year.  But there are other factors that mitigate these circumstances.

First, BYU does not have a good tournament record.  As Greg Wrubbell, the voice of the Cougars tweeted either yesterday or today; BYU has the third worst NCAA tournament record among teams that have been to the big dance more than 20 times.  (One of the two teams with a worse record is a rival...guess who?)  They have rarely made it out of the first round.  This year, BYU also had a pair of bad losses, while their big wins were not that impressive.  The worst losses for the Cougars this year was a road loss to the worse than usual Utah State Aggies and a home loss to Loyala Marymount.  Finally, BYU's non-conference record was less impressive than usual.

A third-place finish in the WCC is nothing to sneeze at.  BYU lost Jimmer, who was the entire team last year, to the NBA.  Dave Rose has loses a pair of fine senior forwards to graduation this year, Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies will move on.  A pair we will likely not see in the NBA.  There is a lot of good young talent in Provo and a trip beyond the NCAA play-in round will be valuable experience for the young Cougars.

Weber State will play Utah Valley in the collegeinsider.com tournament, which is the College Basketball equivalent to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  Many thought that Damien Lillard, who some project could be a late NBA lottery pick in the upcoming draft, deserved to be in the NIT.  But let's examine this for a moment.

First, the Big Sky Conference, outside of Weber State and Montana was a very weak conference in 2011-12. The 3rd place team in the BCS finished 17-15, just 2 games over .500.  Weber State had 5 chances to make a big impression in the season, but lost by double digits each time.  They had big losses to Saint Mary's, BYU, California, and twice to Montana.  They have Lillard, but no one else has been able to come through when the game is on the line.  In looking over the field, WSU has the strongest record in the field.

Utah Valley plays in the Big West Conference.  This is the best that the Wolverines can hope for until they are a member of a conference with an automatic NCAA bid.  Often these secondary tournaments see upsets from teams that were expecting better.  I would not be surprised if Valley wins in Ogden on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, I hope that if Lillard declares for the NBA draft, he will not hire and agent and return to WSU next season if his workout reviews are not favorable.  Hopefully, Tresnak and the others will be better, especially at the defensive end.

Also in the CIT is Utah State, who will host CS Bakersfield on Wednesday.  Expect that if the Aggies win, the second round game will feature USU taking on the winner of the WSU/UVU game.  The Aggies had a worse than usual season this year, but Stew's Crew could use some post-season success to build on.  USU is one of the few teams who has a worse post-season record than BYU.

As for my bracket, I usually do not fill one out.  The NCAA has a history of upsets, and my guesses are as good as any.  I do not have office buddies to compare them with as I work at home.  But I will say that I was impressed with the way Missouri, the #2 seed in the west, finished the season.  They are my pick to win it all.

Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention Jeff Judkins and the BYU women's team.  I am interested to find out where they end up.