According to Jon Wilner, San Jose Mercury News, an authority that I have come to respect in the conference realignment matters, the proposed merger between C-USA and the Mountain West Conference is likely off for the time being.
The NCAA told the MWC and C-USA that it would award the merged league only one AQ berth to postseason events. So instead of two 8-10 team leagues and two AQs, there would be one 16+ team league with only one AQ.
(Think that went over well with MWC/C-USA officials?)
The reason the meger is likely off is the loss of automatic seats in the NCAA tournament.
Wilner concludes that Utah State and San Jose state will likely join the MWC.
Wilner also points out that the MWC may not expand unless Air Force leaves, which is likely with Navy in the Big East. The MWC needs a contingency plan just in case Boise State and San Diego State decide to return.
That being said, Wilner believes that Utah State and San Jose State are still in line for an invite.
The status of Idaho, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, Texas State and UTSA is up in the air. Although LT could easily fit in with Conference USA.
New Mexico State, Texas State and UTSA have the Sun Belt Conference as a fall-back. If C-USA wants to build back up to 12, they will likely raid the Sun Belt or pick one of these other schools. NMSU has rivals in both the MWC and C-USA, they could go either way.
I do not know if Idaho has any good options to remain in the Football Bowl Subdivision unless it can talk Montana and a few other former Big Sky buddies into moving up and saving the WAC as a football conference. Idaho was in the Sun Belt Conference before, but Utah State was there with them. But the Vandals were only in the Sun Belt as a football conference, the rest of their programs were in the Big West at the time. The Aggies will not be there to help ease Idaho's travel woes this time. Idaho may be able to keep their basketball program in the WAC, if the WAC continues as a non-football conference. But covering travel costs when your nearest football rival is four western states away is something else entirely.
Even if WAC football survives, Idaho may not be able to continue as an FBS member. Let's say the WAC still loses Utah State and San Jose State, but survives by raiding the FCS Southland conference and landing Lamar, Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin, Idaho is no better off than if they are in the Sun Belt.
But rather than worry, Idaho can be proactive. Utah State can't block Weber State once they are out of the WAC. That may be a good place to begin.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
After 20, then what?
I attended the home opener for Real Salt Lake last Saturday. Dave Checketts, who grew up in the same neighborhood as my mom, has done a wonderful job at building a culture around the team, which is one key to success in Soccer. Portland and Seattle, IMHO, however have done the best job at this. Where Los Angeles and New York have followed the traditional American path to success at the pro level and that is spend a lot more money than everyone else. It was noted in ESPN this week that RSL has spend about 12% on payroll than the New York Red Bulls and Los Angleles Galaxy combined.
If RSL can succeed as a small market franchise in probably the 6th most popular sport in the United States (behind American Football, Baseball, Basketball, Hockey and NASCAR), then there his hope that Soccer can succeed in America. There are plenty of entertainment dollars to go around with fewer and fewer people buying into the crap that Hollywood turns out every year.
MLS will likely expand to 20 teams in 2013. Then there will be no more expansion. Why? Most of the soccer leagues in the worlds are maxed at 18 to 20 teams. Of course, here in the US, there are a lot more people, where the NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB are at or over 30 teams. Shouldn't there be 30 teams in Major League Soccer?
The answer is in scheduling. For the first time ever, MLS is having an unbalanced schedule. That is kind of tricky when the power in the league is unbalanced and they award a trophy for the team with the best record. If Kansas City finishes with the best overall record, that may not mean that they are the best overall teams in Major League Soccer when the schedule is unbalanced. That is why there is a playoff to determine the champion.
Now that US Soccer is becoming popular, it may be time to follow the traditional path the other sports established, the formation of a second league. In baseball, the National League was organized in 1876. It became popular and a rival American Association was formed in 1882. It disbanded in 1891, but was followed by the American League in 1901. There have been two baseball leagues ever since.
The National Football League was founded in 1920. When some cities could not get expansion franchises, the American Football League was founded in 1960. The two leagues merged in 1970, but still form the American and National Conferences to keep scheduling even.
The National Basketball Association was born in 1946. When cities who demanded franchises could not get them, the American Basketball Association was born in 1967. It was not as successful as the other American Leagues, but the San Antonio Spurs, New Jersey Nets, Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers were absorbed by the NBA.
There are many cities jostling for the 20th MLS franchise, but the favorite to be awarded the 20th team is the resurrected New York Cosmos. There should be an official announcement sometime later this year, if rumors are to be believed. Then it will become very costly to get a new MLS franchise. If the pattern holds true, some of the jilted cities will come together and form a rival league.
The way the unbalanced schedule works in MLS is that each team plays every team in it's own conference 3 times and every team in the opposite conference once. Because there is one extra team in the East, some Eastern Conference foes will play each other twice, instead of three times. This year there are 34 games on the schedule for each team. Soon, there will be 37. In the EPL, there is a 38 game schedule with 20 teams. In addition to these 37 games, many MLS franchises are involved in international play. Later this season, RSL will be involved in the US Open Cup and their second CONCACAF Champions league. That will add at least 7 more games to the RSL schedule this year. If RSL makes it to the championship of both MLS and the US Open Cup, they will play 37+4 (US Open Cup) + 6 (CONCACAF Champions League) + 5 or 6 MLS Cup games for 53 matches. But some of the top clubs in Europe do the same. MLS teams that are not involved in CONCACAF Champions League can be involved in international friendlies. As one can see, the MLS season is packed full. There is not much room for a league larger than 20 teams.
Here is a solution for MLS...form a second league...your own sanctioned American Soccer League...although other blogs are calling this idea MLS2. (I use ASL to follow the tradition of Baseball, Football and Basketball.) While MLS now has most of their teams in Soccer Specific Stadia, the ASL can play in NFL and NCAA football stadia to begin with. But there would be less pressure, at first, to move to a SSS. The ASL can participate in the US Open Cup and when their attendance and quality of talent rival the MLS, they can play the MLS cup in a "Soccer Super Bowl."
Perhaps they can begin with just six new cities, while two current MLS franchises that are struggling for fans right now can be relegated into the new league...those two clubs would be Chivas USA and the New England Revolution, leaving MLS at 18. Each MLS club would have 4 games against teams from the ASL. The math shows that each ASL team gets 9 games against MLS clubs. There will be no expansion draft, but ASL clubs can sign MLS free agents.
ASL Western Division
Chivas USA
Phoenix
Las Vegas
San Diego
ASL Eastern Division
New England Revolution
Cleveland
Detroit
Minneapolis
Other potential ASL cities
Atlanta, GA
Charlotte, NC
Richmond, VA
Syracuse/Rochester, NY
Buffalo, NY
Miami, FL
Tampa, FL
Orlando, FL
Birmingham, AL
New Orleans, LA
San Antonio, TX
Austin, TX
Tulsa, OK
Albuquerque, NM
Omaha, NE
Edmonton, AB
Boise, ID
Calgary, AB
Madison, WI
St. Louis, MO
Cincinnati, OH
Indianapolis, IN
Louisville, KY
Raleigh, NC
Memphis, TN
Nashville, TN
2nd Chicago Franchise
2nd Bay-Area Franchise
Pittsburgh, PA
Cleveland, OH
Jacksonville, FL
Columbia, SC
Oklahoma City, OK
Winnipeg, MB
Ottawa, ON
Quebec, PQ
Hamilton, ON
If RSL can succeed as a small market franchise in probably the 6th most popular sport in the United States (behind American Football, Baseball, Basketball, Hockey and NASCAR), then there his hope that Soccer can succeed in America. There are plenty of entertainment dollars to go around with fewer and fewer people buying into the crap that Hollywood turns out every year.
MLS will likely expand to 20 teams in 2013. Then there will be no more expansion. Why? Most of the soccer leagues in the worlds are maxed at 18 to 20 teams. Of course, here in the US, there are a lot more people, where the NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB are at or over 30 teams. Shouldn't there be 30 teams in Major League Soccer?
The answer is in scheduling. For the first time ever, MLS is having an unbalanced schedule. That is kind of tricky when the power in the league is unbalanced and they award a trophy for the team with the best record. If Kansas City finishes with the best overall record, that may not mean that they are the best overall teams in Major League Soccer when the schedule is unbalanced. That is why there is a playoff to determine the champion.
Now that US Soccer is becoming popular, it may be time to follow the traditional path the other sports established, the formation of a second league. In baseball, the National League was organized in 1876. It became popular and a rival American Association was formed in 1882. It disbanded in 1891, but was followed by the American League in 1901. There have been two baseball leagues ever since.
The National Football League was founded in 1920. When some cities could not get expansion franchises, the American Football League was founded in 1960. The two leagues merged in 1970, but still form the American and National Conferences to keep scheduling even.
The National Basketball Association was born in 1946. When cities who demanded franchises could not get them, the American Basketball Association was born in 1967. It was not as successful as the other American Leagues, but the San Antonio Spurs, New Jersey Nets, Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers were absorbed by the NBA.
There are many cities jostling for the 20th MLS franchise, but the favorite to be awarded the 20th team is the resurrected New York Cosmos. There should be an official announcement sometime later this year, if rumors are to be believed. Then it will become very costly to get a new MLS franchise. If the pattern holds true, some of the jilted cities will come together and form a rival league.
The way the unbalanced schedule works in MLS is that each team plays every team in it's own conference 3 times and every team in the opposite conference once. Because there is one extra team in the East, some Eastern Conference foes will play each other twice, instead of three times. This year there are 34 games on the schedule for each team. Soon, there will be 37. In the EPL, there is a 38 game schedule with 20 teams. In addition to these 37 games, many MLS franchises are involved in international play. Later this season, RSL will be involved in the US Open Cup and their second CONCACAF Champions league. That will add at least 7 more games to the RSL schedule this year. If RSL makes it to the championship of both MLS and the US Open Cup, they will play 37+4 (US Open Cup) + 6 (CONCACAF Champions League) + 5 or 6 MLS Cup games for 53 matches. But some of the top clubs in Europe do the same. MLS teams that are not involved in CONCACAF Champions League can be involved in international friendlies. As one can see, the MLS season is packed full. There is not much room for a league larger than 20 teams.
Here is a solution for MLS...form a second league...your own sanctioned American Soccer League...although other blogs are calling this idea MLS2. (I use ASL to follow the tradition of Baseball, Football and Basketball.) While MLS now has most of their teams in Soccer Specific Stadia, the ASL can play in NFL and NCAA football stadia to begin with. But there would be less pressure, at first, to move to a SSS. The ASL can participate in the US Open Cup and when their attendance and quality of talent rival the MLS, they can play the MLS cup in a "Soccer Super Bowl."
Perhaps they can begin with just six new cities, while two current MLS franchises that are struggling for fans right now can be relegated into the new league...those two clubs would be Chivas USA and the New England Revolution, leaving MLS at 18. Each MLS club would have 4 games against teams from the ASL. The math shows that each ASL team gets 9 games against MLS clubs. There will be no expansion draft, but ASL clubs can sign MLS free agents.
ASL Western Division
Chivas USA
Phoenix
Las Vegas
San Diego
ASL Eastern Division
New England Revolution
Cleveland
Detroit
Minneapolis
Other potential ASL cities
Atlanta, GA
Charlotte, NC
Richmond, VA
Syracuse/Rochester, NY
Buffalo, NY
Miami, FL
Tampa, FL
Orlando, FL
Birmingham, AL
New Orleans, LA
San Antonio, TX
Austin, TX
Tulsa, OK
Albuquerque, NM
Omaha, NE
Edmonton, AB
Boise, ID
Calgary, AB
Madison, WI
St. Louis, MO
Cincinnati, OH
Indianapolis, IN
Louisville, KY
Raleigh, NC
Memphis, TN
Nashville, TN
2nd Chicago Franchise
2nd Bay-Area Franchise
Pittsburgh, PA
Cleveland, OH
Jacksonville, FL
Columbia, SC
Oklahoma City, OK
Winnipeg, MB
Ottawa, ON
Quebec, PQ
Hamilton, ON
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Basketball Post-Season
Four of Utah's men's college basketball teams will be in the post-season, although two of the three must be disappointed with the results.
BYU made it to the NCAA tournament, but will play in the 1st 4 on Tuesday evening against Iona. BYU was one of the last 4 at-large teams in the tournament. They dropped to a 14th seed. There are several reasons why the Cougars did not get a better seed. One which the NCAA usually points two when asking about why the Cougars seem to be consistently seeded lower than they deserve is the no-Sunday rule. For the past several tournaments, the committee has been firm that no-Sunday play usually limits the Cougars to just one region every year. But there are other factors that mitigate these circumstances.
First, BYU does not have a good tournament record. As Greg Wrubbell, the voice of the Cougars tweeted either yesterday or today; BYU has the third worst NCAA tournament record among teams that have been to the big dance more than 20 times. (One of the two teams with a worse record is a rival...guess who?) They have rarely made it out of the first round. This year, BYU also had a pair of bad losses, while their big wins were not that impressive. The worst losses for the Cougars this year was a road loss to the worse than usual Utah State Aggies and a home loss to Loyala Marymount. Finally, BYU's non-conference record was less impressive than usual.
A third-place finish in the WCC is nothing to sneeze at. BYU lost Jimmer, who was the entire team last year, to the NBA. Dave Rose has loses a pair of fine senior forwards to graduation this year, Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies will move on. A pair we will likely not see in the NBA. There is a lot of good young talent in Provo and a trip beyond the NCAA play-in round will be valuable experience for the young Cougars.
Weber State will play Utah Valley in the collegeinsider.com tournament, which is the College Basketball equivalent to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Many thought that Damien Lillard, who some project could be a late NBA lottery pick in the upcoming draft, deserved to be in the NIT. But let's examine this for a moment.
First, the Big Sky Conference, outside of Weber State and Montana was a very weak conference in 2011-12. The 3rd place team in the BCS finished 17-15, just 2 games over .500. Weber State had 5 chances to make a big impression in the season, but lost by double digits each time. They had big losses to Saint Mary's, BYU, California, and twice to Montana. They have Lillard, but no one else has been able to come through when the game is on the line. In looking over the field, WSU has the strongest record in the field.
Utah Valley plays in the Big West Conference. This is the best that the Wolverines can hope for until they are a member of a conference with an automatic NCAA bid. Often these secondary tournaments see upsets from teams that were expecting better. I would not be surprised if Valley wins in Ogden on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, I hope that if Lillard declares for the NBA draft, he will not hire and agent and return to WSU next season if his workout reviews are not favorable. Hopefully, Tresnak and the others will be better, especially at the defensive end.
Also in the CIT is Utah State, who will host CS Bakersfield on Wednesday. Expect that if the Aggies win, the second round game will feature USU taking on the winner of the WSU/UVU game. The Aggies had a worse than usual season this year, but Stew's Crew could use some post-season success to build on. USU is one of the few teams who has a worse post-season record than BYU.
As for my bracket, I usually do not fill one out. The NCAA has a history of upsets, and my guesses are as good as any. I do not have office buddies to compare them with as I work at home. But I will say that I was impressed with the way Missouri, the #2 seed in the west, finished the season. They are my pick to win it all.
Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention Jeff Judkins and the BYU women's team. I am interested to find out where they end up.
BYU made it to the NCAA tournament, but will play in the 1st 4 on Tuesday evening against Iona. BYU was one of the last 4 at-large teams in the tournament. They dropped to a 14th seed. There are several reasons why the Cougars did not get a better seed. One which the NCAA usually points two when asking about why the Cougars seem to be consistently seeded lower than they deserve is the no-Sunday rule. For the past several tournaments, the committee has been firm that no-Sunday play usually limits the Cougars to just one region every year. But there are other factors that mitigate these circumstances.
First, BYU does not have a good tournament record. As Greg Wrubbell, the voice of the Cougars tweeted either yesterday or today; BYU has the third worst NCAA tournament record among teams that have been to the big dance more than 20 times. (One of the two teams with a worse record is a rival...guess who?) They have rarely made it out of the first round. This year, BYU also had a pair of bad losses, while their big wins were not that impressive. The worst losses for the Cougars this year was a road loss to the worse than usual Utah State Aggies and a home loss to Loyala Marymount. Finally, BYU's non-conference record was less impressive than usual.
A third-place finish in the WCC is nothing to sneeze at. BYU lost Jimmer, who was the entire team last year, to the NBA. Dave Rose has loses a pair of fine senior forwards to graduation this year, Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies will move on. A pair we will likely not see in the NBA. There is a lot of good young talent in Provo and a trip beyond the NCAA play-in round will be valuable experience for the young Cougars.
Weber State will play Utah Valley in the collegeinsider.com tournament, which is the College Basketball equivalent to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Many thought that Damien Lillard, who some project could be a late NBA lottery pick in the upcoming draft, deserved to be in the NIT. But let's examine this for a moment.
First, the Big Sky Conference, outside of Weber State and Montana was a very weak conference in 2011-12. The 3rd place team in the BCS finished 17-15, just 2 games over .500. Weber State had 5 chances to make a big impression in the season, but lost by double digits each time. They had big losses to Saint Mary's, BYU, California, and twice to Montana. They have Lillard, but no one else has been able to come through when the game is on the line. In looking over the field, WSU has the strongest record in the field.
Utah Valley plays in the Big West Conference. This is the best that the Wolverines can hope for until they are a member of a conference with an automatic NCAA bid. Often these secondary tournaments see upsets from teams that were expecting better. I would not be surprised if Valley wins in Ogden on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, I hope that if Lillard declares for the NBA draft, he will not hire and agent and return to WSU next season if his workout reviews are not favorable. Hopefully, Tresnak and the others will be better, especially at the defensive end.
Also in the CIT is Utah State, who will host CS Bakersfield on Wednesday. Expect that if the Aggies win, the second round game will feature USU taking on the winner of the WSU/UVU game. The Aggies had a worse than usual season this year, but Stew's Crew could use some post-season success to build on. USU is one of the few teams who has a worse post-season record than BYU.
As for my bracket, I usually do not fill one out. The NCAA has a history of upsets, and my guesses are as good as any. I do not have office buddies to compare them with as I work at home. But I will say that I was impressed with the way Missouri, the #2 seed in the west, finished the season. They are my pick to win it all.
Finally, I would be remiss if I did not mention Jeff Judkins and the BYU women's team. I am interested to find out where they end up.
Monday, March 5, 2012
A plan to save the WAC?
This is the first response of mine to the following report...
3 plans to save the WAC...Plan C...Big Sky Merger.
This plan is to save the WAC by a merger with the Big Sky Conference under the Big Sky banner. In a nutshell, here is the plan.
1. Assumes that Utah State will leave the WAC for the hyper-conference which I have dubbed MWCUSA.
2. Utah Valley is given a conditional invite...provided begin football in 2 years. Obviously, they will not be competitive in 2 years...gives some of the better Big Sky programs another team to beat up on and have a chance at bowl eligibility early on.
3. The Big Sky would merge with the WAC and have two divisions for football, sans Cal Poly and UC Davis. One for the FBS teams and one for the FCS teams.
The divisions would probably look like so at first...
FBS division...playing for a bowl game invite...
San Jose State
Idaho
New Mexico State
Texas State
UTSA
La Tech
Montana*
Eastern Washington*
Weber State*
FCS Division...playing for an NCAA FCS playoff invite
Northern Arizona
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Montana State
Utah Valley
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Portland State
It would then be understood that the FCS schools would build toward an FBS jump at any time...as there is no time limit to execute the move.
*Based upon market size, number of sports sponsored, attendance, facilities and student body.
The problem with this proposal is that there are at least three schools, Idaho State, Southern Utah and North Dakota that will never be able to make the jump to the FBS. At this point, you eventually need to decide on a size limit...perhaps 16 teams in 2 FCS divisions before the FCS division is spun off into a new conference.
Then what would you have?
FBS Big Sky
Western Division
San Jose State
Idaho
Montana
Eastern Washington
Montana
Montana State
Sacramento State
Portland State
Eastern Division
New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech
Texas State
UTSA
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Sacramento State
Utah Valley
Weber State
And then you are left with
FCS Big Sky
Idaho State
Southern Utah
North Dakota
And then, you would need to add...assuming that these DII schools want to be part of the madness.
Central Washington
Dixie State
Adams State
Chadron State
Nebraska Kearney
Pittsburgh State
Why it will not work? It spreads the conference expansion insanity down to Division II.
It is not bad for the Big Sky and WAC to merge, but leave enough schools at the FCS level to keep the Big Sky what it is...one of the better FCS-level conferences in the nation.
3 plans to save the WAC...Plan C...Big Sky Merger.
This plan is to save the WAC by a merger with the Big Sky Conference under the Big Sky banner. In a nutshell, here is the plan.
1. Assumes that Utah State will leave the WAC for the hyper-conference which I have dubbed MWCUSA.
2. Utah Valley is given a conditional invite...provided begin football in 2 years. Obviously, they will not be competitive in 2 years...gives some of the better Big Sky programs another team to beat up on and have a chance at bowl eligibility early on.
3. The Big Sky would merge with the WAC and have two divisions for football, sans Cal Poly and UC Davis. One for the FBS teams and one for the FCS teams.
The divisions would probably look like so at first...
FBS division...playing for a bowl game invite...
San Jose State
Idaho
New Mexico State
Texas State
UTSA
La Tech
Montana*
Eastern Washington*
Weber State*
FCS Division...playing for an NCAA FCS playoff invite
Northern Arizona
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Montana State
Utah Valley
Sacramento State
Southern Utah
Portland State
It would then be understood that the FCS schools would build toward an FBS jump at any time...as there is no time limit to execute the move.
*Based upon market size, number of sports sponsored, attendance, facilities and student body.
The problem with this proposal is that there are at least three schools, Idaho State, Southern Utah and North Dakota that will never be able to make the jump to the FBS. At this point, you eventually need to decide on a size limit...perhaps 16 teams in 2 FCS divisions before the FCS division is spun off into a new conference.
Then what would you have?
FBS Big Sky
Western Division
San Jose State
Idaho
Montana
Eastern Washington
Montana
Montana State
Sacramento State
Portland State
Eastern Division
New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech
Texas State
UTSA
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Sacramento State
Utah Valley
Weber State
And then you are left with
FCS Big Sky
Idaho State
Southern Utah
North Dakota
And then, you would need to add...assuming that these DII schools want to be part of the madness.
Central Washington
Dixie State
Adams State
Chadron State
Nebraska Kearney
Pittsburgh State
Why it will not work? It spreads the conference expansion insanity down to Division II.
It is not bad for the Big Sky and WAC to merge, but leave enough schools at the FCS level to keep the Big Sky what it is...one of the better FCS-level conferences in the nation.
Utah State 2012 Schedule Finalized.
The Aggies kick of their 2012 schedule with a pair of home games against in-state opponents. They conclude their November schedule by playing on the road at the defending WAC champion, Louisiana Tech and a home game against the Idaho Vandals. Other highlights are visits to Wisconsin and BYU.
August 30 (Thursday)--Southern Utah
September 7 (Friday)--Utah
September 15--@ Wisconsin
September 22--@ Colorado State
September 29--UNLV
October 5--@ BYU
October 13--@ San Jose State*
October 20--New Mexico State*
October 27--@ Texas San Antonio*
November 3--Texas State*
November 17--@ Louisiana Tech*
November 24--Idaho*
* Western Athletic Conference game
August 30 (Thursday)--Southern Utah
September 7 (Friday)--Utah
September 15--@ Wisconsin
September 22--@ Colorado State
September 29--UNLV
October 5--@ BYU
October 13--@ San Jose State*
October 20--New Mexico State*
October 27--@ Texas San Antonio*
November 3--Texas State*
November 17--@ Louisiana Tech*
November 24--Idaho*
* Western Athletic Conference game
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