I have read through several stories about the new conference that is coming out of the merger of the Mountain West Conference and Conference USA. I will dub this new conference MWCUSA until they choose a new name.
One pundit has commented that this conference may grow to 24 members, the original vision when the Mountain West and Conference USA first announced their championship alliance last fall. A merger of two different 12-team conferences which would meet in a championship game a week after the traditional conference championship weekend with the winner getting a BCS bowl. This concept is not likely to happen now, at least in this form, with Boise State, Houston and SMU out of the picture, but at least the structure would be in place should Utah State eventually become the next Boise State.
The questions are; how do you get there, what will it look like once it is finished and how will the schedule work out in the end?
At present, the MWC has 7 full-time members and 1 football-only member and Conference USA has 8 full-time members remaining. Those members are: Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Hawaii (Football-only), New Mexico and Wyoming from the MWC. Conference USA brings in Alabama Birmingham, East Carolina, Marshall, Tulsa, Rice, Tulane, Southern Mississippi and UTEP. Together that is 16 super-conference members. They would need 8 more to get to 24. Who could those 8 schools be?
The first option would be the raid the WAC. The WAC recently lost commissioner Karl Benson to the Sun Belt Conference. They have been reeling for 2 years and are easy pickings right now. The first choice would be to simply invite the 7 remaining WAC football members to the conference, at least in football. That would be a very easy thing to do. In football, the WAC is left with Louisiana Tech, Idaho, New Mexico State, Texas State, Texas San Antonio, San Jose State and Utah State. But do they really want to do that? If you are serious about a 24 member conference you take on San Jose State, Utah State and Louisiana Tech, but the other 4 remaining WAC football members have a lot of questions that may hurt the credibility of a conference not exactly on the cusp of national credibility.
Do you really build credibility with Idaho, who has the smallest football facility in the Football Bowl Subdivision, whose attendance numbers have them flirting with relegation to the FCS and who plays in the shadow of a PAC-12 school who does not exaclty cast a large shadow? If you use these reasons to say no to Idaho, how does one justify keeping UAB? There are only two differences between UAB and Idaho. First, Idaho has a stellar academic profile, even if they are not an academically elite college. While I am certain that many graduates do not remain in the Palouse, you could find them all over the larger cities of the Pacific Northwest. The other difference is that UAB plays in a large stadium that is mostly empty, where the same crowd would make the Kibbie Dome more than half-full. A typical Idaho home game at least looks good on TV. Therefore, I think that Idaho is in as well. But the divisions might work out better if Idaho is not invited...see below.
New Mexico State does not have the academic reputation that Idaho has, nor does it have a stellar football record. Since joining the Major College Division in 1959--which is now the FBS, NMSU has earned 3 conference championships...including sharing the 1976 Missouri Valley Conference Championship (which at that time was a D-IA conference) with a 4-6-1 record. They have not been to a bowl game since 1960. And they have had 7 winning seasons. In 1960, they went 11-0 including a Sun Bowl Victory over Utah State. That earned them their only top-20 finish in history. There are only 5 schools in history that have a lower overall winning percentage than NMSU. But one of them is current CUSA member UTEP. Some of the others near NMSU at the bottom include Rice, UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State. So the MWCUSA can not really justify saying no to NMSU. But Rice, UNLV, and the others have all had winning seasons and bowls games in their recent history. The Aggies do not add much, but they really can't make the conference much worse. The only reason to reject NSMU is that they are no really outside the footprint of the Sun Belt Conference. They will have a place to go, where Idaho's only choice if rejected will be to return to the FCS and the Big Sky Conference. But one of the problems this super conference will have is establishing rivlaries, and NMSU has natural rivals in New Mexico and UTEP. I think that they will be in the 24-school MWCUSA.
UTSA and Texas State are new. TSU will play their first official FBS games this season, and UTSA in 2013. MWCUSA can shun these guys because the Sun Belt Conference will be able to snatch them up. Up to 5 of the 8 needed to bring MWCUSA will come from the WAC, the 3/4 will come for the Sun Belt and the Sun Belt will be able to take on the reject. MWCUSA will likely also bring on North Texas, Middle Tennessee and choose between Arkansas State, Troy, FIU, FAU, La-Laf and La Monroe to fill out. There will be room in the Sun Belt for the remaining WAC programs.
Except for Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State, the WAC invitees will be football-only and the WAC will continue as a basketball league. I also believe that the charter will be written so that the 24 team conference will compete as two separate leagues in all other sports.
Here is how I think the divisions will line up.
Pacific Division
Hawaii (Football Only--other sports Big West)
Idaho (Football Only--other sports WAC)
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
San Jose State (Football Only--other sports WAC)
Mountain Division
Air Force
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Utah State (Football Only--Other sports WAC)
Wyoming
(The above 8 full sports members will continue to compete as the Mountain West Conference under a new charter in the other sports.)
Southwest Division
Louisiana Tech
North Texas
Rice
Tulsa
Tulane
UTEP
Atlantic Division
Alabama Birmingham
East Carolina
Middle Tennessee
Marshall
Southern Mississippi
Troy
How the schedule will work? 9 conference games. Five against teams in the same division. 1 against a designated rival in the other division...such as New Mexico State/UTEP, Utah State/Idaho or Tulane/USM. And one game against a team from each of the other divisions on a rotational basis.
The winners of the Pacific and Mountain divisions would play each other in a semi-final as well as the winners of the Southwest and Atlantic divisions. The championship would be played during Army/Navy week. But the bowls that the semifinalist would play in would need to be after Christmas.
Further note about Idaho. If they are not invited, Utah State can move to the Pacific Division and UTEP to the Mountain Division. Arkansas State would be invited to fill out the Southwest Division. This may provide a more natural divisional alignment, keeping all of the teams west of the Continental Divide in the same division and allowing UTEP to be in the same division and New Mexico and New Mexico State.
The WAC would be left with the following non-football league:
CS Bakersfield (New)
Denver
Idaho
San Jose State
Seattle
Texas Arlington
Texas Pan American (New--Currently a non-football program of the FCS Southland Conference.)
Utah Valley (New)
Utah State
If Idaho does not get an invite to the new league, they could join the Big Sky Conference. Unsure if they would put all sports in the BSC or only football.
My question for Utah State, San Jose State and Louisiana Tech fans is this. Do you want to be a part of this conference, or would you rather remain in the WAC. Leave the floundering WAC for a crazy idea that could fail? That is your choice.
3 comments:
Idaho won't be demoted...that's just a foolish thought. Until the Board of Regents begin discussing it, keyboard warriors sound ignorant speculating that it might actually happen. Deal in facts, not fantasies.
Every year there is a school or two who make the jump from FCS to FBS. These new football schools need leagues to join. That's what happened with Texas State & UTSA when they joined the WAC. Other schools like Lamar and Sam Houston State are very close to making the jump and are in the WAC's footprint.
The WAC will live on a as football conference...but just with some new schools that aren't household names.
I am not certain that this will be up to the powers at Idaho for discussion. If they are left out of the 24-member MWCUSA, what choice will they have? And if the WAC falls below 6 members, using the Big West as a guide, a conference is done playing football. I have not seen any articles about Lamar, SHSU nor SFA moving up to the FBS for about a year. But I have seen some articles about USU, SJSU and others spurning the new merged MWCUSA...we'll have to see what happens.
Idaho has been making the FBS attendance requirements for years now and should be demoted weather they like it or not.
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