I have the following comment from an anonymous commenter that I wish to explore further...
Idaho won't be demoted...that's just a foolish thought. Until the Board of Regents begin discussing it, keyboard warriors sound ignorant speculating that it might actually happen. Deal in facts, not fantasies.
So, here are the facts.
1. The MWC and Conference USA are going to merge in 2013. This creates a 16-team conference.
2. Based on comments by the President of UTEP, the conference wishes to expand to 24-schools. The target list includes current WAC members Utah State and New Mexico State.
That is all that we know, and the rest is indeed pure speculation.
What people at Idaho should focus on is what moves will San Jose State, Utah State and New Mexico State now make. But if Utah State, San Jose State and New Mexico State move to the new hyper-conference and Idaho get's left out, then what?
-Maybe the WAC survives as a football conference by getting Sam Houston State, Lamar and Stephen F Austin. Then you have a 7-member conference where the closest competitor to Idaho is in Central Texas.
-Or Idaho joins the Sun Belt Conference, again, where the nearest competitor, in the best case scenario, is in North Texas.
-Or Idaho joins BYU in independence.
-Or Idaho relegate itself back to then FBS where the Big Sky Conference would welcome them back.
Which of these scenarios is the best for Idaho?
It is my hot fingered opinion that Idaho has two options that are in it's best interest. If Idaho is to remain in the FBS, they need to be with nearby schools. It will be extremely difficult for Idaho to get November crowds with games against Texas State and Lamar. The school will get better crowds in November if the competition is Montana and Eastern Washington than they will if the competition is from Texas. Second, there will be little or no TV money for a conference that includes Idaho, Texas State, UTSA, Lamar, SHSU, SFA and La Tech. Therefore, if Idaho can not be in the same conference as Utah State and San Jose State, they will be better off in the Big Sky Conference. People at Idaho do not need a meeting of the Board of Regents to tell them that.
The absolute best-case scenario for Idaho is that the WAC survives with Utah State and San Jose State in tow and that they can convince Montana, Eastern Washington and a pair of other Big Sky programs to make the jump to the FBS.
Idaho's per-game home attendance:
2011--11,980
2010--12,730
2009--12,546
Current 3-year running average---12,419
It will take 2-3 years to bring the football program into compliance and get the average attendance above 15,000. The listed capacity of the Kibbie Dome is 18,000.
Two other facts to consider.
The NCAA has not yet demoted a school due to attendance issues. Idaho's issues with attendance are not unique.
Even though the Board of Regents has not yet considered Idaho's classification, we do not know what athletic director Rob Spear and President Duane Nellis are working on behind the scenes.
2 comments:
Idaho is not going back to FCS. Take a look at all the other western land grant schools and who is playing FBS football. Oregon State, Washington State, Berkeley, Arizona State, New Mexico State, Utah State, Colorado State, Wyoming....Montana State is the only school not playing football at the highest level. Idaho belongs with the other sub-P12 land grant schools.
Idaho needs to focus on being successful in the WAC. If we had been a perennial bowl team for a decade instead of an FBS cellar dweller, people would be praising our two media markets. Winning will take care of everything.
And all we know is that MWC and CUSA have chosen to pursue a merger. It could still fall apart if the media rights don't add up.
The Board of regents has no say in where they move. Idaho has not been meeting the minimum attendance requirements to be in FBS for years and should be demoted where they like it or not.
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