I said in my own self-rebuttal of my 2012 predictions that sooner or later Boise State will have to deal with an 8-win season and 2012 might be the year for it. I have nothing really to back up my premise outside of the fact that all of their stud players have exhausted their eligibility and the law of averages.
Bobby Bowden, who in 2001 was taking a 7-4 Florida State team to the Gator Bowl said the following, "You ain't gonna win 10 games every year. We've already done the impossible! (win 10 or more games 14 years in a row)...You think anybody will ever do that again?! Everybody expects that every year and gosh, it just don't work that way!"
From 1987 to 2000, Florida State won at least 10 games every season and finished in the to 10 every year. That is exceptionally impressive. And as he put it, impossible.
Boise State has been on a similar tear. For the 4th time since 2006, Boise State will finish in the top 10. Only twice since 2000 has Boise State finished with fewer than 10 wins. The first was 2001 when Dan Hawkins took over for the departed to Arizona State Dirk Koetter. The second was the 9-win 2005 season when BSU began the season 0-2 in Hawkins final year in Boise.
Boise's run of 10 win seasons has to end sometime. Sometime, you really will rebuild and retool. It doesn't mean that the Boise program is less powerful and a less desirable place to play football. It's just the law of averages. Eventually, it will catch up with Boise State.
In terms of winning percentage, Boise State in now 3rd in the Football Bowl Subdivision (D-IA) and that includes their time in the lower divisions. Their record is 378-145-2 for .72190. Not counting those years would be like BYU only counting their record since 1972 or Florida State leaving out their record in the 1960's. Since moving to the higher division, BSU is an impressive 105-34 for .75540. Extrapolating that win percentage to a 12-game season, and you have 8-wins. That is what Boise State has averaged since 1996. But what about bowl games. That winning percentage is actually 9.8 wins per season.
That is not bad. In fact, as I have said, Boise State's overall winning percentage is .72190. That is third behind Michigan and Notre Dame. Michigan's .731414 translates to 9.5 wins per season. That does not mean that Michigan fans should expect their time to have a 10-win season every other year. It means that some years you have 12 wins and some years you have 7. Some years you stomp the likes of Wisconsin and Penn State and some years you lose at home to Appalachian State. But Michigan still manages to attract almost 110,000 fans to every game.
Eight wins per season is a great football program. That winning percentage is .61500. That's the University of Washington, #19 on the list. Just behind Florida and just ahead of Virginia Tech. Winning 8 games per season is good company.
7 wins per season isn't bad either. That is .53846. That is where your BSU arch rival Nevada sits. They are #62 on the list, two places lower than the median college football program, Missouri sits. The majority of college football is between 5 wins and 7 wins per season.
Boise State has had a lot of good seasons lately. They have beaten the likes of Georgia and Oklahoma and Oregon regularly. But even the best team in the history of college football has a bad year. Ask Florida State fans about their 6-6 2006 campaign...and then ask them how it felt to have 4 of those 6 wins vacated after talking to them about the 14 consecutive seasons in the to 10.
It is a difficult thing to win 10 games in one football season and to do that year after year. So if averages catch up to Boise State, it is no reason to bite anyone's head off. It will be a long time before Boise's arch rival Nevada catches them in overall winning percentage. It will be a long time before even Washington does. Even Bobby Bowden's 14-consecutive 10-wins seasons only brings them to #12.
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